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  • #12,081
  • Jun 15, 2009 6:33pm Jun 15, 2009 6:33pm
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Looking for a double bounce off of these lows here if we can get a failure sometime next week, or moving forward. 50% retracement confluence, support down to the 1.6230 level
Great call once again Billy Ray! I got a quick 50 pips on this one.
Love your style.
  • #12,082
  • Jun 15, 2009 7:24pm Jun 15, 2009 7:24pm
Quoting loudoniii
Hans ...
Paul,

Thank you so much for the thorough explanation.

The two links below were what I was referring to as the spike-base pattern, and although this particular set-up worked this time . . . it does not always work. I do understand that.

Spike-Base Pattern #1, BRV

Spike-Base Pattern #2, BRV

I did not enter this trade nor did I place a buy limit at 1.3757. What I was suggesting is that if one did do that (follow the basis for the spike-base pattern), then in this particular situation . . . he/she could've simply placed a TP at the nearest S+R level, which was close to 1.38. I do also understand this was an extremely risky trade and the chances of the market turning when it did were slim; nonetheless, as referred to in the two posts above by BRV, this particular spike-base pattern happens quite often, and it can be used cautiously to grab a small amount of pips.

I appreciate your counsel, and it has been added to my trading notes. Thanks, Paul.
  • #12,083
  • Jun 15, 2009 10:38pm Jun 15, 2009 10:38pm
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Looking for a double bounce off of these lows here if we can get a failure sometime next week, or moving forward. 50% retracement confluence, support down to the 1.6230 level

Nibble nibble - got about +87 pips on this one at best entry and technically still going for our tracking purposes with a static sl of -40 still intact.

Ive answered this before, but I don't blame anyone for not finding in this very small (<---sarcasm) thread, but when I say 'area' I mean a 10 pip range around the posted price, which in this case would be 1.6245 and 1.6235.

And from 1.6245 without spreads its a +84 pip trade max so far. Another one for the books.

-Steve
  • #12,084
  • Jun 15, 2009 10:42pm Jun 15, 2009 10:42pm
Quoting MIA_Austrian
Great call once again Billy Ray! I got a quick 50 pips on this one.
Love your style.
Thanks....these are really easy!! Like I say anyone could have spotted this from a mile away. Taking them, that's another story .
  • #12,085
  • Jun 15, 2009 10:49pm Jun 15, 2009 10:49pm
Quoting hans356
Paul,

Thank you so much for the thorough explanation.

The two links below were what I was referring to as the spike-base pattern, and although this particular set-up worked this time . . . it does not always work....
Hi there! I think the confusion with this pattern has been coming in the following forms (people identifying these in the following ways):

- not really a 'spike' present at all, and just a bump in a gradual uptrend or downtrend

- people "forcing" the pattern (wanting it to be there when its not really there - not a clean and genuine 'spike base' because they're looking to make a trade - this is what I'm finding the most)

- finding them on lower timeframes (these work best on 1 hr charts; in fact I wouldn't consider one found on anything less)

we havent seen many fantastic spikes in the past few weeks here so its unlikely that these are found too often in recent days. Of the patterns I posted, this could be one of the less commonly occurring ones.

I updated the post to include the info about the 1hr timeframe...hope this helps.

Thanks!!!
  • #12,086
  • Jun 15, 2009 10:51pm Jun 15, 2009 10:51pm
Billy
So are you guys still in this trade? gbp/usd?
Thanks
  • #12,087
  • Jun 15, 2009 10:55pm Jun 15, 2009 10:55pm
Quoting Sierra8561
Billy
So are you guys still in this trade? gbp/usd?
Thanks
Hi Sierra, this might help: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=1253
  • #12,088
  • Jun 15, 2009 10:58pm Jun 15, 2009 10:58pm
Thanks Billy I appreciate your help
  • #12,089
  • Jun 15, 2009 11:01pm Jun 15, 2009 11:01pm
I think there is a bit of overanalysis involved sometimes with what this thread entails. For instance, take the first page of this thread. I made all of those posts literally within a matter of a few minutes and didnt look at bloomberg, reuters or anything else for that matter.

This last GBP trade is a perfect example. That low was sticking out there like a sore thumb all on its own, confluence with a 50% retracement.

Bada bing! I didnt go to M.I.T., or Oxford, but I did go to what's considered an excellent school here in NY and learned nothing about how to trade profitably.

Easy easy - keep it simple. Common sense rules.


Quoting BillyRayValentine
Hi there!...
  • #12,090
  • Jun 15, 2009 11:02pm Jun 15, 2009 11:02pm
Hi Steve,

Great thread (although i have focused more on your website). Thank you for sharing so much trading knowledge and expertise. The presentation and info you have placed is easy to follow and thorough.

How does this look for a bottom of the bucket trade on USD/CAD 15 min chart?

Thanks!
Attached Image
  • #12,091
  • Jun 15, 2009 11:09pm Jun 15, 2009 11:09pm
The 140.75 area on eur/jpy has had good history in the past and also lines up with the 50% retracement. seems like this pair has already turned down though.
Attached Image
  • #12,092
  • Jun 15, 2009 11:09pm Jun 15, 2009 11:09pm
Quoting Dropped Onion
Hi Steve,

Great thread (although i have focused more on your website). Thank you for sharing so much trading knowledge and expertise. The presentation and info you have placed is easy to follow and thorough.

How does this look for a bottom of the bucket trade on USD/CAD 15 min chart?

Thanks!
Thanks Onion! It was a good call, but I wouldnt necessarily try it again on a retest - first time around on these. Pretty standard move though.....good stuff.
  • #12,093
  • Jun 15, 2009 11:22pm Jun 15, 2009 11:22pm
Got it. Thanks for feedback.
  • #12,094
  • Jun 15, 2009 11:23pm Jun 15, 2009 11:23pm
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Bada bing! I didnt go to M.I.T., or Oxford, but I did go to what's considered an excellent school here in NY and learned nothing about how to trade profitably.

Easy easy - keep it simple. Common sense rules.
Thanks, Steve.

Often times, I find myself over-analyzing. Not because I "want" or "need" to trade something and trade something NOW, but because I want to make sure it is, indeed, a "NO BRAINER TRADE."

I come from a background of H4 time frames or higher; so I am more patient than most younger traders, but I do over-analyze.

Thanks for your comments. Paul was right . . . that was not really a "spike-base" pattern.
  • #12,095
  • Jun 15, 2009 11:27pm Jun 15, 2009 11:27pm
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Hi there! I think the confusion with this pattern has been coming in the following forms (people identifying these in the following ways):

- not really a 'spike' present at all, and just a bump in a gradual uptrend or downtrend
This was my problem earlier today with the eurusd.

Thanks for the insight!
  • #12,096
  • Jun 15, 2009 11:29pm Jun 15, 2009 11:29pm
Quoting hans356
Thanks, Steve.

Often times, I find myself over-analyzing. Not because I "want" or "need" to trade something and trade something NOW, but because I want to make sure it is, indeed, a "NO BRAINER TRADE."

I come from a background of H4 time frames or higher; so I am more patient than most younger traders, but I do over-analyze.

Thanks for your comments. Paul was right . . . that was not really a "spike-base" pattern.
haha - didnt mean it in any negative context please hope you dont think Im too critical here - always enjoy your posts and great having you around. Thanks!!
  • #12,097
  • Jun 15, 2009 11:30pm Jun 15, 2009 11:30pm
Regarding a college education. From an educator:

In my life I have had the opportunity to work with two millionaires. Not in a trading capacity.

Neither of them went to college. Both owned their own businesses. One was a natural at sales. Both were blessed by 'the law of attraction' long before it was ever talked about.
  • #12,098
  • Jun 15, 2009 11:32pm Jun 15, 2009 11:32pm
Quoting BillyRayValentine
haha - didnt mean it in any negative context please hope you dont think Im too critical here - always enjoy your posts and great having you around. Thanks!!
Oh, heavens no! No offense taken at all. I love to learn! Give me all the constructive tutoring you'd like!!!
  • #12,099
  • Jun 15, 2009 11:38pm Jun 15, 2009 11:38pm
Quoting Lou
Regarding a college education. From an educator:

In my life I have had the opportunity to work with two millionaires. Not in a trading capacity.

Neither of them went to college. Both owned their own businesses. One was a natural at sales. Both were blessed by 'the law of attraction' long before it was ever talked about.
I have a Masters in Biblical Studies, and as everyone could clearly assume, I use it on a daily basis in my trading. This was a joke . . .

My father does extremely well for himself in running a large, large, large farming operation in Canada. He never graduated from high school, but always persevered and made more right choices than bad ones.

He is a good man! Thanks, Lou.
  • #12,100
  • Jun 15, 2009 11:44pm Jun 15, 2009 11:44pm
Quoting hans356
I have a Masters in Biblical Studies, and as everyone could clearly assume, I use it on a daily basis in my trading. This was a joke . . .

My father does extremely well for himself in running a large, large, large farming operation in Canada. He never graduated from high school, but always persevered and made more right choices than bad ones.

He is a good man! Thanks, Lou.
woo go canada! .. im from ontario
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