No Brainer Trades

I have a question. On Friday, after G/U twice failed to break through 1.6340
support and started moving up and I noticed E/U also moved up, I decided to test it. If it failed to break lower, probably it will move higher, so I took long position at 1.6395. Took 70 pips.
Does it mean for example that if after few attempts price failles to take out S/R level we can take trade in opposite direction?

Shiko

Here's how I saw it ...

Price turned back up at 1.6327, exactly the 76.4% Fibo retracement level of the previous run-up from 1.6237 - 1.6620.

1.6331 is also the 61.8% Fibo retracement level on my 4-Hour chart of the previous run down from 1.6661 - 1.5798, and is another proven Support and Resistance level from recent past history.

The zone around 1.6330 - 1.6340 has been both a Support and a Resistance zone in the recent past.

With a proven Support zone in place here, plus confluence with these Fibo levels, then I would say that it was a good probability Long opportunity.

It went from 6327 up to 6520 on my charts, ie potential profit of 193 PIPs - well done on your 70 PIPs !

Confluence of a know S+R zone with higher-timeframe Fibo levels is always worth watching for good potential trades, in my experience. As BRV teaches us, where there is a known good S+R level, Fibo confluence can give us more confidence in the trade, with the 50.0%, 61.8% and 76.4% Fibo retracement levels being the ones to watch, and the higher-timeframe charts being more reliable.

To help me spot key Fibo levels, I mark these 3 Fibo levels on all my charts - M for monthly, W for weekly, D for Daily, 4H for 4-Hour. Surprise, surprise, these levels very often also represent key S+R zones on the charts, so help me spot S+R levels. When I zoom down to, say the 1-Hour chart, it is very significant to me if price is approaching an S+R level that coincides with a key higher Fibo level.

For example, as BRV tells us in one of his latest posts there is a good Support level at 1.6240 - see the huge up-spike at 1.6240 clearly visible on the attached chart. This level represents a good long opportunity should price action get back down there in the next few trading days. It is no coincidence that this level is spot on the 50% Fibo support level from the previous run-up on the 4-Hour chart.

Cheers, Loudoniii

Hey RC:
Thanks for responding to my post. I appreciate your sharing your opinion and insight with me and look forward to learning more from the thread.

Quantum09

Eur/Usd

Is making another dive for 13790 on the 4 hour. I'm looking to short this one if we have a nice break This will be the 3rd attempt at this area so something might roll.

loudoniii
Member


Thank you


I will need to watch price action along S/R areas more to make conclusion.
I use S/R and Pivot points but still cannot figure how to calculate and use Fibonacchi.
Missed all the action at London open

gtone long Euro @ 1.3850 and GBP@ 1.6350 ( reasoning support is holding in the region of 1.3837 for euro and 1.6325

closed both positions as near resistance for profit

euro 19 pips
gbp 35pips

pooh!!!
as soon as I sold the markets taken off. what a bummer

looking to get in on gbp @1.6395
anyone else taking this trade?

Hi, Brv...

I,ve just read your blog... about over under paterrn another nice Strategy.. !!!

Have a question here: Can This Strategy Work On Other Pairs Besides EurUsd ?

Thanks

just took the trade 1.6395 for GBP stopp loss at 1.6380. I am new to this forum and following BRV technique. anynoe else take this trade and if not the reason why please

moved stop loss to B/E (1.3695) on gbp

stopped out

I have made a couple of trades but waiting for E/U to get to 1.3790-1.3800 and G/U 1.6300 and then 1.6230-1.6240.
But I am really having second thoughts. News are bad, may be to call it a day would be a wise decision. I already made my goal.

If I may try and answer - yes you will see it all over , including stocks. Here's an example on Silver daily.

Cheers

I would consider this a spike-base pattern. Is this correct, any senior member?

Hans

I see an S+R level at 3791 - 3803 zone, as base of the 28 May and later spikes down, and top of earlier small consolidation area from 20/21 May timeframe.

Then next lower I see as 3721 - 3726 area, as per latest 4-hour chart picture.

Currently bouncing back up off the 61.8% Fibo Support level at 3772.

Just my thoughts, hope this helps.

Cheers, Paul

Hi, Paul. Thanks for the reply.

Yes, I noted those S+R levels as well, but in relation to the spike-base pattern only, would that particular "level" be conducive to the BRV teachings?

If one played this correctly, one could have easily placed a buy limit at 1.3757 (the bottom of the spike-base pattern) with a small take profit at roughly 1.3795-ish (the bottom of the previous S+R level). It was a quick retracement for quick pips.

But I agree with you. The above S+R levels are noted and I have another buy limit placed at 1.3725. It is against the larger trend, but I will have a tight SL and a smaller sized TP.

Hans ...

Just looking to take a long entry off another level that was Support only once or twice in the past can be dangerous .... Murphy's Law predicts that when you try it again as Support it will break.

I find that long entries work much better when based on an S+R level formed at least partially by a good spike up, as in BRV's post http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=12057.

This shows a Cable long entry at 1.6240 (which came good today to the tune of about 85 PIPs !), and is based on a stonking huge spike up from back on 5 June.

In other words, for long entries, try to make sure you have good Resistance spike(s) / area(s) below; same in reverse for shorts, ie look for good Support spike(s) / area(s) above, as part of your S+R level qualification.

Resistance turned Support / Support turned Resistance levels work best, I find.

Having confluence with one of our magic Fibo retracements (50.0%, 61.8% or 76.4%) at the same level on a 4-Hour chart or above helps increase the confidence level in the entry, in my experience.

A diagonal trend line intersecting around the same level helps too, but as a lower priority - a good solid S+R level is the primary prerequisite, the other factors are confirmations.

I'm not sure of the wisdom of your Buy Entry at 3757 ..... having been down there once, I would say that if it is going to be a reversal to long, then it won't revisit 3757 in the near future, but will only retrace to somewhere above that.

If it hits 3757 again in the near future, I think it is much more likely that the long reversal has failed and it is heading back Southwards again ....

I see nothing supporting use of 3757 as a possible Support level... just one little spike down.... no spikes up / consolidation areas below, as per rules above, so I personally would not be at all confident in a long at 3757.

3721 - 3726 is the next area I see that looks anything like a possible Support zone below, and that's not too strong either, I don't reckon... would wait and see how price reacts when it gets there. With prices like these just above the double 0 level, there is always a risk that price will slip down to the nearest double 0 level below, ie 3700 level.

I like using Entry Limit trades where possible, but I only do it when it is a good solid S+R level that pushes all the OK buttons, eg 1.6240 long entry on Cable earlier, right on 50% Fibo Support and above huge spike.

Otherwise, I just watch and see how price reacts when it gets to a possible reversal level, on the principle that almost no reversals are instant... a turnaround takes time, so gives several chances to enter at a good price, and to stay out if the "reversal" fails.

These are just my thoughts.

Cheers, Paul

Excellent post

Yup, a post full of useful info.

Just one quick question: do round numbers play any role in your trading? There is almost always some sort of reaction around them, whether a bounce or a quick get-through, so they are a big temptation for intraday scalps. The precise reaction is difficult to predict, though (at least for me).