StewartR - I want my trading to be boring.

And there is NFP news coming out in few hours.

THis trade was a loser.

Trend was good
Bullish outside bar was good
The trend was up.

On the daily it was overbought and probably ready to go back down, as proved to be the case. But you never know for sure. All I know is that I trust that I have done enough to put the odds in my favor so this was a well executed trade that lost.

Loser
missed my TP by 2 pips and I went to bed so I didnt move my stop to break even.

Trend + oscillator + pin bar.
THat trade was as close as you can get to being a winner.

THis trade was a loser.

I usually need 3 items to enter. I need trend + pull back + price action. For price action I like to see pin bars and outside bars. I took this one on an inside bar. Not that this was a big problem because this will often work out ok....but on this day it didn't.

So I took three losses in a row a few days ago. Two of the trades involved the GBP and one of those went to within 2 pips of my TP. There is no need to panic. The method is fine. the odds were still in my favor. Its just the markets decided to reverse (pin bars and outside bars) and then reverse one candle later. That doesnt happen often and I just have to live with that.

Closed out for a winner as price approached prior resistance and big round number

exited for +27 pips due to lack of conviction on the trade. I can see cross currents. For example while yesterday was a bullish pin bar, the day before was big bearish outside bar after a massive up move. Its due for a retrace and the pin bar might just be showing a pull back rather than a reversal in this case.

Also - as Chicky pointed out. Today is NFP.
Also - right now price is at a 50% fib retrace since high 2 days ago and its also at prior resistance on the 4hour chart.

So I just exited with a small profit.

Edit. Just woke up and NFP created some volatility. It looks like a lot of stops would have been taken out and then the market reversed again......Glad I exited by AUDUSD trade when I did. (it went +60 pips but reversed on NFP and would have closed a loser)

Daily pin bar + downtrend +oscillator turning
entered on 38% pull back.
targetting 2:1

Edit: result. Entry on pull back was excellent. It gave less than a 20 pip drawn down.
I moved my TP to 1.1020 (just above the round number).
TP was hit while I slept for 1.6R. Exit seems good as last 4 hour candle was bullish pin bar off ppz with oscillator extreme already.

uptrend
oscillator hooking from extreme
pin bar

entry on 38% pull back and targetting 2:1

Edit: trade progress.
Bull back entry yielded an initial draw down of less than 30 pips.
Moved s/l to break even when up 150 pips. Then moved s/l to 1.25:1 when up 270pips. I put the new s/l just under a one hour inside bar that broken to the upside.
I have moved the TP out to 3:1 in case there is an exhaustion spike. The worst I can do now on this trade is 1.25R.

GU +1.6R (331 pips)
UC +1.6R (160 pips)

Up 3.2R for R for the day.

Comment: This daily GU and UC trade was effectively one trade. The setups were virtually the same. So in reality, I think I was trading a double size position in the USD. hmmmm This deserves more thought.

One of the best journals I've read on the net. Great work and your sharing of such is invaluable to others.

Thank you

But sometimes it acts as hedge against abnormal spikes in one pair. Like for example, there was a spike up on EU at NFP release time (before it ultimately took south direction). But no similar spike up on GU. However, like you said total risk in one direction on one currency maybe managed. Diversification of risk without increasing total amount at risk is a good risk mitigation tool.

Buy Limit order placed at 38% retracement of pin bar.

There were a lot of reasons to place this order.
1. Uptrend
2. Pull back to 38% of the uptrend
3. Oscillator hooking
4. 38% retracement coincided with prior resistance switching to support
5. Pin bar

I placed my order at 38% retracement of the pin bar.


Cancelled this order a few hours later. It missed my entry by 2 pips and I am not feeling good about the trade.....so I have canceled the order. A breakout entry would still have paid 1:1

Hi Chicky,
Yes. While I made my biggest ever profit on yesterday's two trades, I think I really just doubled up on the same bet (ie 1 bet against the usd). I like your idea of continuing to spread the risk across multiple pairs and adjusting the combined risk to be that of just one trade.

Sometimes I see the same currency triggering trades in multiple pairs; and some take off to be winners and others just sit and do nothing. Spreading the trade across all triggers will ensure I get a slice of all of it).

Thanks for your thoughts.

Hi Sam0182,
Glad you are finding it helpful. I know its been really good for me too!

Hi Bakuli,
It seems strange calling you bakuli after calling you by your first name for so long.... :-)

You emailed me about my move to enter on 38% retracements of the trigger candle, and I have some comments I would like to share here.

I noticed that most (nearly all) 4 hour candles retrace 38% of the previous candle.

So I tested 20 of my live trades (since May 2009) to see how many retraced 38%. The answer was 19 of the 20. Only one trade out of my previous 20 would not have triggered. But I would have had an entry price almost 40% better if I waited for the retracement on the other 19!

This does unbelievable things to my risk reward ratio and the attached diagram tries to show you what I mean.

_________________________________________-
Maths.

100 pip pin bar. Entry on break of pin bar.
THe entire move must be 200 pips to get 1:1 and 300 pips to reach 2:1 becuase I am entering 100 pips into the move and have a 100 pip stop loss.

Retracement entry:
The entire move must be 124 pips to get 1:1 and 186 pips to reach 2:1 because I am entering 62 pips into the move and have a 62 pip stop loss.

So a retracement entry can get 2:1 from a 184 pip move when a breakout entry requires 200 pips to get 1:1!!!!!!!

So in my last two trades, I made 1.6*R on both (3.2R total) in less pips than a breakout entry would need for getting to 1:1 on both (2R Total).
_________________________________________
Two more comments:
1. I am not interested on 50% or 62% pull back entries because they would keep me out of too many trades.
2. I am aware that even a pull back to 38% will keep me out of some excellent trades.

This is not my normal method which trades with the trend. This was an antitrend trade taken in a smaller live account with my MT4 broker.

Entry reasons:
1. price went up to resistance without a decent pull back - so its due
2. almost a pin bar, followed by an inside bar, which broke to the downside.
3. Oscillator was turning from extreme.
4. The USD was showing strength across a number of pairs.

So this trade was more of a gut feel/experience trade rather than a system trade.

Initial stop was above the inside bar's high.
Moved stop to Break Even at +50 pips.
I'm currently nearly at 1:1 and its time for bed. Thinking about closing it out now. I'll give it a few more minutes.
Edit: closed trade for 81 pips and just over 1:1. (An entry on pull back to 38% of the candle that broke the inside bar, would have netted 2:1 but I am not confident on antitrend pull back trades. )

Black and white trades are not my normal trend method. However they represent what I believe to be high probability trades based on support/resistance and price action.

1. Daily chart - price is near a significant low and round number .8500
2. There is a lot way to go before the trade will find its next chart support.

3. 4hourly chart had a bearish outside bar.
4. Followed by a small pull back and then a small pin bar (bearish), which indicated that price was preparing to move lower again.
5. price had moved above the .8500 level but could not continue upward.
6. I got very interested price was able to close under the .8500
7. With the oscillator hooking, I thought this had enough reasons to enter short.

Currently up 1:1

Edit: Result. Break event (+1pip). Moved stop loss to break even at 1:1 and went to bed. Woke up to being stopped out for +1 pips.

Not a normal trade. So its not getting my full position size and is displayed with a black background.

AUDJPY
4 hour price has rapidly moved down to support
Pin bar
Oscillator hooking
Coming into the asian session - hoping Aussies and Japanese Traders push it up in the next 8 hours.

Once price moves into profit, I'll move stop to around the 61% retrace of the pin bar. Lots of testing shows that to be a sound place to put my stop.

Edit: Resulted in a loss.
Setup was ok BUT the pin bar was not a good one. I'm glad it did not get my full position size. THe point of a pin bar is to show a reversal. This pin bar was very small and was just a pull back. I bet that other price feeds did not show this pin (something I will check out later)

Also reviewed what would happen if I didnt enter on a pull back but entered on a breakout with the stop loss at a 61% retracement of the trigger bar.

It works better than having the stop at the extreme of the trigger bar and improves profits significantly - giving 1.5:1 instead of 1:1.
Its not as profitable as entering on a pull back, but the upside is 1. it gets you into trades as price is moving in your direction and 2. it increases the chances winners being bigger than losers.