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Peaches`s trading log

  • #101
  • Jun 14, 2009 2:19pm Jun 14, 2009 2:19pm
Quoting baz
Just trying to learn....with USD/JPY DAILY ....does PRICE have to be OVER the Value of the GREEN line,and than it is considered a BUY or bullish ?

baz
no, not necessarily. I would be better, and have more weight if green line would be above the past price.

But the crossing from the red line through the blue line from below is most importend one signal.

Other, second additional signal is green line crossing the price in the past.

Third signal: price is breaking through the kumo cloud.

Pretty much good buy signals.
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  • #102
  • Jun 14, 2009 2:24pm Jun 14, 2009 2:24pm
Quoting peaches
no, not necessarily. I would be better, and have more weight if green line would be above the past price.

But the crossing from the red line through the blue line from below is most importend one signal.

Other, second additional signal is green line crossing the price in the past.

Third signal: price is breaking through the kumo cloud.

Pretty much good buy signals.
thanks peter
lets see how USD/Yen performs this week....

baz
  • #103
  • Jun 14, 2009 10:12pm Jun 14, 2009 10:12pm
hi dear all
  • #104
  • Jun 15, 2009 3:56am Jun 15, 2009 3:56am
Quoting hussin naiji
hi dear all
Hi dear hussin,

notice bounce from daily kijun sen (blue line). Maybe during US session price will turn back ~1.40, back to 4 h kijun sen, before turning and drop further.

If daily kijun sen is broken below, we see big drop, notice how far kumo cloud is below at ~1,336
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  • #105
  • Jun 15, 2009 4:08am Jun 15, 2009 4:08am
Same usdcad: break daily kijun sen, or return to 4 h kijun sen before
heading north ?

Notice on 4h chart bulllish cross, plus green line going through the price line.

Also price is above the 4 h kumo.

All bullish signals on lower timeframe.

Also see how far away is daily kumo at 1,18-1,19 in case daily kijun sen is taken.
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  • #106
  • Jun 15, 2009 8:59am Jun 15, 2009 8:59am
For usd/lfx we see price now reaching the kijun sen. It will be interisting, if the price goes through the kijun sen, or will be rejected.

A nice target in case of taken kijun sen, will be above 1.86

Notice on 4 h chart this shooting star.

Without knowledge if ichimoku cloud, nobody could have known, that this shooting star was just a re-test of the ichimoku cloud.
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  • #107
  • Jun 15, 2009 2:06pm Jun 15, 2009 2:06pm
For GU today we see nice short play. Price has stoped exactly above the tenkan sen.

But on 4 h chart -which is less reliable- we see a bearish cross (the red line crosses the blue from above). This happens above the cloud, so this is a weak sell signal. Price might turn back to 4 h kijun sen, or drops straight through the 4 h cloud.
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  • #108
  • Jun 15, 2009 2:16pm Jun 15, 2009 2:16pm
See example for trading strategy entry ichimoku system cad/lfx:

Risky entry, trader will go short, against the bulls, if you have a full daily closed candle below the tenkan sen (red line).

Second strategy is also simple: Traders go short, if they have a full daily close below the kijun sen (blue line).

Notice with much importence: conservative trader will not do this, because price is above the kumo cloud, which means price is in Bull Land. To short in bull territory is very risky.

However Tenkan sen breaks and kijun sen breaks are valid trading strategy, like kumo breakouts in ichimoku system.
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  • #109
  • Jun 15, 2009 2:23pm Jun 15, 2009 2:23pm
Notice detail in meaning of the kumo cloud:

BIG kumo cloud = BIG resistance

THIN kumo cloud = WEAK resistance

Obviously, but worth a notice.
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  • #110
  • Jun 15, 2009 2:25pm Jun 15, 2009 2:25pm
You have seen bull run on gbp/cad.

Of course there is a weekly bullish cross on this one.
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  • #111
  • Jun 15, 2009 3:44pm Jun 15, 2009 3:44pm
GBP_USD Spot.png

looking at 6 hr TF..
we have a Bullish Cross,and possible Support on the Clouds ?

baz
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  • #112
  • Jun 15, 2009 6:31pm Jun 15, 2009 6:31pm
Peaches - I hope you don't mind me posting this - its a link about Ichimoku webinar that was done by the CME group. It's a free webinar that you can view (I haven't had a chance to watch it yet, but it is focused on Ichimoku Cloud trading). Hope some find this useful.



Click here to view a video recording of the CME Group Seminar:
Ichimoku Clouds for CME Group's Forex E-micro Contract

Richard Weissman of EMI will explain what an Ichimoku Cloud is, along with the benefits of this trend following tool when you trade the CME Group Forex E-micro contracts. In this webinar he will specifically explain how this technique works with candlestick charts and the different types of Ichimoku clouds that exist.

URL: http://cmegroup.na3.acrobat.com/p45719116/
  • #113
  • Jun 16, 2009 11:14am Jun 16, 2009 11:14am
Big thank you, I will watch it very close


Quoting nyjetfan
Peaches - I hope you don't mind me posting this - its a link about Ichimoku webinar that was done by the CME group....
  • #114
  • Jun 16, 2009 11:34am Jun 16, 2009 11:34am
Quoting baz
GBP_USD Spot.png

looking at 6 hr TF..
we have a Bullish Cross,and possible Support on the Clouds ?

baz
Hi baz,

your chart is showing a bullish cross, but it is 6 h timeframe.

Ichimoku was origin developed for daily timeframe.

Remember, ichimoku parts kijun sen, tenkan sen, upper and lower part of the clouds are made of moving averages with timeframe 9, 26 and 52 period. So I am not sure, if ichimoku will work on other timeframe like daily.
I use it on 4 h charts, but I have had loses with using 4 h chart.
  • #115
  • Jun 16, 2009 1:08pm Jun 16, 2009 1:08pm
I have had some inestigation about the topic "settelment price", "settelment day", which I mentioned here:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=8379

Example attached is eur/usd daily, I marked with vertical lines the settelment days. Please have a look for price development 7-14 trading days before these days and after.

Pretty interisting, but this did not occur on all currency pairs.
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  • #116
  • Jun 16, 2009 1:14pm Jun 16, 2009 1:14pm
my usd/jpy was stopped out of course, which make me think, what went wrong.

To be honest I have now clue. If I compare with last bearish cross, the price was time lagging 9-10 days before price went down, so maybe it will turn middel of next week bullish ?

No new trade on sushi for me
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  • #117
  • Jun 16, 2009 1:20pm Jun 16, 2009 1:20pm
On aud/nzd we have a bullish cross.

This happens above the cloud, plus see daily candelstick pattern
black spinning top:

http://www.candlesticker.com/Cs06.asp

All this happens near a fibo level.

I would give this signal a 8 out of 10, which is pretty good. It is not 10/10, because the chinkou span is not above the price line.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #118
  • Jun 16, 2009 1:31pm Jun 16, 2009 1:31pm
For Dow Jones:

See on daily chart, price is going through the daily kijun sen, and will fall deeper. A full daily candle close is valid sell signal.

Notice on monthly candle price was rejected from tenkan sen, it needs a second attempt for breaking upward.

Maybe next month.

Remember: Falling stock market = rising dollar.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #119
  • Jun 16, 2009 1:33pm Jun 16, 2009 1:33pm
Quoting peaches
Hi baz,

your chart is showing a bullish cross, but it is 6 h timeframe.

Ichimoku was origin developed for daily timeframe.

Remember, ichimoku parts kijun sen, tenkan sen, upper and lower part of the clouds are made of moving averages with timeframe 9, 26 and 52 period. So I am not sure, if ichimoku will work on other timeframe like daily.
I use it on 4 h charts, but I have had loses with using 4 h chart.
Thanks Peter...
regards to USD/Yen......i guess no Method is 100%,so i think its part of trading, losing......
i am sure you will get it back and more

baz
  • #120
  • Jun 16, 2009 1:34pm Jun 16, 2009 1:34pm
As I mentioned before: Candles near the kijun sen or tenkan sen often result as a doji or a candle, which points in the direction against the trend.

This is because price has to break resistance, which is not easy.

Price will go trough this resistance or be rejeted to collect more momentum.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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