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4H Box Breakout

  • #421
  • Jun 10, 2009 9:28am Jun 10, 2009 9:28am
Quoting nubchai
JD this looks interesting. Thanks for sharing. One thought that came up earlier in the thread is limiting losses on the weekly trades by trading with the trend. Can you please tell me
- How long have you traded this method?
- Win - loss % (guesstimate is fine)
- Why the Eu only
- Have you tested on any other pairs?

I'd appreciate the info to get a feel for how well this method works.

Thanks,
Sandy
I have been trading various breakouts for a long while, mainly daily breakouts. I ran accross this shortly after the start of the thread so we will call it 3 weeks.

roughly 60- 70% across the majors, but then again I am taking more trades as explained above on additional continuations of the original trend. I tend to lean more on the eur usd as I find it to trend more, it has more liquidity and the best spreads, but its not the only pair i trade this method with. GBPJPY looks to be fabulous on visual backtest but I have not traded that yet. I plan on doing so starting next week.

Trading with a 15- 20 point buffer may work for some people but I honestly think that the trend MUST be determined before just taking a price breach trade. I have found that it keeps me out of some bad trades. All that being said, I may get in a little later on the trade but I feel more confident about the direction of the trade.

I move to breakeven after 50 pips. I hope this info helps.
  • #422
  • Jun 10, 2009 9:31am Jun 10, 2009 9:31am
Quoting nubchai
JD

For some reason the template isn't working for me. Can you please repost?

Thanks.
sure no problem. Here you go.

Make sure you have the template in MT4/templates folder
also make sure you have the indicators posted in the previous post in your experts/indicators folder

should load up just fine
Attached File(s)
File Type: tpl 4hr weekly breakout.tpl   2 KB | 845 downloads
  • #423
  • Edited 10:05am Jun 10, 2009 10:04am | Edited 10:05am
JD if the NLMA is red and crossing blue when it's time to place an order do you then place both a pending Buy and pending Sell? Thanks

PS Thank you for the template
  • #424
  • Jun 10, 2009 10:13am Jun 10, 2009 10:13am
Quoting nubchai
JD if the NLMA is red and crossing blue when it's time to place an order do you then place both a pending Buy and pending Sell? Thanks

PS Thank you for the template
youre welcome

red and crossing blue - do nothing (if that is happening you should be out of your long trade by now if you were in one)

I only go short when red hits red. No pending orders.
  • #425
  • Jun 10, 2009 10:40am Jun 10, 2009 10:40am
Quoting jdsim1
youre welcome

red and crossing blue - do nothing (if that is happening you should be out of your long trade by now if you were in one)

I only go short when red hits red. No pending orders.

I see. I'm going to try this. Thanks again.

Sandy
  • #426
  • Jun 11, 2009 2:59am Jun 11, 2009 2:59am
Quoting Ace284
1. GBP/JPY works the best which is why I prefer it. Second best would be EUR/JPY followed by AUD/JPY
I would imagine that these pairs are all going the same way more or less.

If the total risk somebody is prepared to take is 3% then the risk on each pair would have to be 1%.

Ace from your experience, would it be better financially to concentrate on GBP/JPY with a risk of 3% or would the drawdown be considerably lower by spreading the risk over 3 pairs and be prepared to take a lower profit overall?

appreciate you sharing the strategy and your reply to my questions.
  • #427
  • Jun 11, 2009 4:47am Jun 11, 2009 4:47am
So do you enter on breakout of the open or close of a new candle or current candle???

Thanks
  • #428
  • Jun 11, 2009 5:49am Jun 11, 2009 5:49am
Quoting yonnie
I would imagine that these pairs are all going the same way more or less.

If the total risk somebody is prepared to take is 3% then the risk on each pair would have to be 1%.

Ace from your experience, would it be better financially to concentrate on GBP/JPY with a risk of 3% or would the drawdown be considerably lower by spreading the risk over 3 pairs and be prepared to take a lower profit overall?

appreciate you sharing the strategy and your reply to my questions.
GBY/JPY does perform the best.
However, I generally risk 4% a week on either side.
GBP/JPY - 2%
EUR/JPY - 1%
AUD/JPY - 1%
  • #429
  • Jun 11, 2009 7:33am Jun 11, 2009 7:33am
Thanks for posting your strategy though i'm just stumbled into it few days ago. Pls i want to ask is how to open trade a trade with 2x, 3x, and 4x of the box at the onset of setting the first trade. i.e how do i set multiple take profit at 2x, 3x n 4x when placing the pending order?, pls put me thru.
thanks
Only Jesus Saves
  • #430
  • Jun 11, 2009 10:37am Jun 11, 2009 10:37am
I trade a similar 4-hr breakout strategy as the one on this thread. The way I filter for trend is to add a EMA 21 (on the high and on the low) to the 4-hr chart. If the candle I want to box is inside the tunnel of the EMAs, I don't use that candle and wait for the first one that closes either above it or below it - that seems to filter out false breakouts a bit better for me.

Ace, everyone, thanks for your observations.
  • #431
  • Jun 11, 2009 1:04pm Jun 11, 2009 1:04pm
Quoting dotman
Thanks for posting your strategy though i'm just stumbled into it few days ago. Pls i want to ask is how to open trade a trade with 2x, 3x, and 4x of the box at the onset of setting the first trade. i.e how do i set multiple take profit at 2x, 3x n 4x when placing the pending order?, pls put me thru.
thanks
Hi dotman,

The target should only be one of the levels. Either 2x, 3x or 4x. I prefer to go with either 3x or 4x. This is because i've tested and those two targets produce the best outcomes.
  • #432
  • Jun 11, 2009 4:02pm Jun 11, 2009 4:02pm
Quoting Ace284
GBY/JPY does perform the best.
However, I generally risk 4% a week on either side.
GBP/JPY - 2%
EUR/JPY - 1%
AUD/JPY - 1%
you must be very confident in your strategy; the SL on both sides hit means 8% of your equity gone in 1 week.

how often in your experience since December where GBP/JPY was stopped out, but not the other 1 or 2 pairs?
in my view if that never happened I might as well concentrate on GBP/JPY exclusively.

have you tested a trailing stop of say 150 pips to see if that works as well so that you dont have to watch the charts?

would appreciate your comments
  • #433
  • Jun 11, 2009 4:46pm Jun 11, 2009 4:46pm
Quoting yonnie
you must be very confident in your strategy; the SL on both sides hit means 8% of your equity gone in 1 week.

how often in your experience since December where GBP/JPY was stopped out, but not the other 1 or 2 pairs?
in my view if that never happened I might as well concentrate on GBP/JPY exclusively.

have you tested a trailing stop of say 150 pips to see if that works as well so that you dont have to watch the charts?

would appreciate your comments
You are correct, worst case scenario, I would lose 8% of my account in a week.
Keep in mind that best case scenario is 14% using my TP's;
GBP/JPY - 4x
EUR/JPY - 3x
AUD/JPY - 2x
Probability is on our side.

Well actually the absolute best case would be 28% if both sides were broken and went to their respective TP's. This does not happen as much.

When GBP/JPY gets stopped out, generally the other two gets stopped out as well. So yeah mainly focusing on GBP/JPY would be best.

I have not tried trailing stops right after the break because it skews with money management, a lot. I know that some people have some interesting ideas about trailing stops, but unless they are tested, i wouldn't recommend them.

In any case, you don't have to watch the charts. Just place long and short pending orders as well as their TP (choose 1,TP 3x or TP 4x is best) and SL.
My broker calls the order type, If then One Cancels other. 30 mins is all it takes at the start of the week.
  • #434
  • Jun 11, 2009 7:06pm Jun 11, 2009 7:06pm
OK... lets try for more definition here, and this week is a good one!!

Questions:

1. Do we use OCO... (assume no)

2. Do we allow a re-entry in the same direction if the first trade is a loss.

3. Do we filter according to the nonlag...

The screenshot shows these questions for this week...

If we traded both directions, and allowed one re-entry per, we had net zero.. (well actually, 4 spreads loss, with no Breakeven moves... to keep it simpler...)

If we traded only long, per the NLMA, we would have 2X profit and done for the week... (one 1x loss, and one 3X win...)

If we moved to BE at 1X profit, we would have done better in both directions....

This will be easy to EA, but we have to define the logic.... maybe this will help...

thanks!

mrkam
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4hr_weekly_gj_1.gif Size: 13 KB
  • #435
  • Jun 12, 2009 8:46am Jun 12, 2009 8:46am
Quoting jdsim1
youre welcome

red and crossing blue - do nothing (if that is happening you should be out of your long trade by now if you were in one)

I only go short when red hits red. No pending orders.
can you clarify please:

1.when the nonlagma is red and the nonlagma hits one of the red lines, go short
/or
2.when the nonlagma is red and price hits one of the red lines, go short

Thanks in advance
J
  • #436
  • Jun 12, 2009 9:28am Jun 12, 2009 9:28am
Ace, just to clarify, do you add your buffer to the shadow/range of the candle or the actual body of the candle?
  • #437
  • Edited 7:31pm Jun 12, 2009 1:50pm | Edited 7:31pm
I have an idea on how to capture the bigger moves of the trends while staying safe...

I'm attaching an EA called Elite eFibo Trader. What it does is add a buy or sell stop of x number of lots every y pips (both are completely customizable). Basically, you can set it to open a 1 lot pending trade every 10 pips if you want. The problem is making it work with this system...because the EA's only setting is to open a buy or sell. It'll open the one trade and create multiple stops depending on if you chose to buy or sell.

If someone can modify it to open the trades at the price you enter I think we could make it work with this system. We would be going with the trend if it went up and closing out the position if it retraced (if one of the trades hits the stop loss all the positions are closed), so we'd still be safe.

Better yet, if someone can modify it this way in addition to the above: have it close the open trade right when a pending order it created before is hit. This way you only have 1 open trade at a time and are banking your profits!
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 eFibo EA v2.1.mq4   22 KB | 813 downloads
  • #438
  • Jun 12, 2009 3:38pm Jun 12, 2009 3:38pm
Quoting jahual89
Ace, just to clarify, do you add your buffer to the shadow/range of the candle or the actual body of the candle?
It's not just the body of the candle. You would need to add the buffer to the shadow/range.
  • #439
  • Jun 12, 2009 3:55pm Jun 12, 2009 3:55pm
Ace, this week GY got stopped out first on the short, then on the long. However, later in the week, it broke on the long and headed for 3X or even 4X TP. Do we enter the long side again midweek if it broke out of the range?
  • #440
  • Jun 12, 2009 4:29pm Jun 12, 2009 4:29pm
Quoting VisionTrader
Ace, this week GY got stopped out first on the short, then on the long. However, later in the week, it broke on the long and headed for 3X or even 4X TP. Do we enter the long side again midweek if it broke out of the range?
I haven't tested re-entering after both sides have failed. If both sides hit the SL, I generally presume that the week is in a consolidation. But I can see how this question is important because this week and the week before last have broken the second time and went to their respective TP 3x and 4x.

Feel free to test it and see if its worth re-entering.
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