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Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #8,121
  • Jun 12, 2009 12:39am Jun 12, 2009 12:39am
Low thanks for the chart. Not exactly how I would draw a TL but this one you drawn by you could be useful.

Note, It looks like that upper resistance line on the triangle is holding up. I posted a chart earlier in showing the symmetrical triangle. I might post an updated one here later. I have little confidence it'll do much other than range on Friday. I don't mind being wrong though.
  • #8,122
  • Jun 12, 2009 12:45am Jun 12, 2009 12:45am
Quoting RickyRudy
Low thanks for the chart. Not exactly how I would draw a TL but this one you drawn by you could be useful.

I drew the TL on the daily 2 weeks ago, and was amazed to watch price bounce off of it today.

Would you like to see the daily H/L used?
  • #8,123
  • Jun 12, 2009 12:48am Jun 12, 2009 12:48am
This one's just in case Jacko stops by for a look.

http://i41.tinypic.com/5kj9sw.jpg
  • #8,124
  • Jun 12, 2009 1:34am Jun 12, 2009 1:34am
Quoting Low
I drew the TL on the daily 2 weeks ago, and was amazed to watch price bounce off of it today.

Would you like to see the daily H/L used?
As you said the price is boucing of the trendline on the daily as a resistance point and the bottom of the triangle on the 4H as support with minor S/R at 1.4050 area.

It's been a tedious few days, I want to buy at around 1.3800 and sell at the daily resistance trend line, but it will be next week until we see some decent momentum I feel.
  • #8,125
  • Jun 12, 2009 3:51am Jun 12, 2009 3:51am
Quoting lovejoy80
As you said the price is boucing of the trendline on the daily as a resistance point and the bottom of the triangle on the 4H as support with minor S/R at 1.4050 area.

It's been a tedious few days, I want to buy at around 1.3800 and sell at the daily resistance trend line, but it will be next week until we see some decent momentum I feel.
Hi there, Lovejoy, Low, Ricky

I really like the charts you've posted here. Would like to contribute with a couple of mine and hopefully share some ideas. Will try to post them later on once I get home.

Keep up the good work
  • #8,126
  • Jun 12, 2009 6:06am Jun 12, 2009 6:06am
Thanks Jpnek.

As promised, I've posted an update to my previous chart. In fact, I've included 2 charts, a H4 chart and a daily chart. Both are as of 6:50 AM NY time or approx 10:50 GMT (if my conversion is correct). All the lines you see on both charts are the same lines just carried from one chart to the next. The dashed line in the middle of the channel on both charts is what I believe to be equivalent to Low's support line in his charts. Although I don't see this as support like Low does, it does seem to have some significance as it helps to identify where price struggles or forms a kind of soft/weak S/R area. I don't give it much more credit than that simply because it has been pierced so many times and by so many pips in either direction on each piercing. But once again, it appears to be a line worth noting.

Also observe how the upper part of the triangle is holding up as a resistance area. Price pierced this line around 1.4140 and then shot as high as 1.4176 before being rejected and closing well below the resistance line. Price is now moving downward. Price is now at the 38% fib on the daily at 1.4030, which is another significant area. Note the where the 50% daily fib is located on the daily chart. It is damn close to the support line I'm using. This would indicate that the 1.3950 to 1.4000 area is going to be extremely significant in terms of where things go. The triangle is getting squeezed. The number I'm keeping an eye on is 1.3990. Next week should be a good week for this pair to come out of consolidation and pick a direction. I'm thinking it should happen early in the week (Monday, Tuesday the absolute latest). It could very well bounce back up from the 1.3990 area. I still have a small long bias. If it heads short I would look at the weekly 50% fib as a target around 1.3600.

Quick note: I bagged 118 pips after the spread from my EURUSD Long trade yesterday. The decision to close based on the charts wasn't a bad one after all. My total pips for this week was 218 pips. Not bad when this week was mainly a ranging week of consolidation.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd_h4_20090612_1047.jpg Size: 116 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd_d1_20090612_1050.jpg Size: 121 KB
  • #8,127
  • Edited 7:05pm Jun 12, 2009 11:31am | Edited 7:05pm
I'm including both my H4 and D1 charts on which I've based my trades for the past few weeks. Admittedly, I always compare my studies with those of Jacko's in search of further confirmation and if both of us share the same bias I usually take my trades knowing that I'm trading with his years of experience in my back.

I've just realized by looking at your charts that I basically share something with everyone. My perfect trade for the medium term is based on my D1 chart on fibs confluence around a psych number plus nearness to my support TL. Here, I share Low's view to go long at .3600. Although I mentioned medium term, with the current market's volatility we could easily be there by mid next week (don't take this too seriously... I may be wayyyy off on this market prediction), from there, ideally, I should be longing dips all the way to 4500-ish.

In the short term, however, I have a short bias. As you can see on my H4 chart, a downtrend channel seems to be developing and I'll be watching PA next week to see whether this works out or not. Actually, as of 15:00GMT we seem to have bounced off nicely from 1.3950 so I'll be checking whether the channels upper wall (resistance) gets pierced. BTW, although I don't trade pattern formations, we seem to have an H&S within the head of a bigger H&S .

Finally, and I wish not to get you bored with so many charts, I have an H4 triangle, that looks just like Lovejoy's and Ricky's. This one seems to be working to the pip, and we will soon be seeing a nice breakout. While the general consensus is northbound... as I said before, I currently have a short bias so I think we'll be seeing a south move. Let's see how this works out.

Cheers,

PS. Let me know if there is anything you may not understand on my posts... as you may have realized by now, English is not my main language
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: D1.png Size: 71 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: H4_triangle.png Size: 66 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: H4_dw_channel.png Size: 59 KB
  • #8,128
  • Jun 12, 2009 11:47am Jun 12, 2009 11:47am
Jpnek, I like your view of the market, even the short term bias. I'm just waiting for confirmation beyond the TL forming the lower part of the triangle. The down channel you've drawn is compelling though. I'm good on the LONG at 1.3600 as well. I'm even planning on trading the down move, candle formations pending of course.

I normally post my thoughts before reading Jacko's but if Jacko says trade I'm trading baby. He really does have an uncanny ability to read this market. Something I'm learning from him. I also take what he blogs into consideration but don't go solely on that. After all, he is human. Admittedly, my most recent trades weren't Jacko sanctioned trades and they've turned out well.

Yeah, the triangle formation has held up so well I thought about entering LONG today at 1.3950 and trail with 50 pips. I ultimately decided that considering it is Friday, the upside wasn't that great and I had no assurance of when it would go into profit, the risk just wasn't worth the minimal reward. I didn't think it would be worth it to be 10 pips in profit with the weekend looming. Had I taken the risk I would've been locked in at 41 pips profit where my target would've been 50 pips. Oh well, still a good decision given the circumstances.

Your English is great. I wouldn't have figured it wasn't your native tongue.

Thanks to everyone who've contributed their thoughts and posted their charts. It really does help all around even when we're wrong. It's all about traders helping traders. Have a great weekend everyone.
  • #8,129
  • Jun 12, 2009 12:21pm Jun 12, 2009 12:21pm
Quoting hansnl
My 5 year old agrees with that..

Hans are you dutch?
  • #8,130
  • Jun 12, 2009 12:56pm Jun 12, 2009 12:56pm
I appreciate everyone's point of view also, and wish I had enough familiarity with EU to take some of the entries others do.

Please don't beat me up for this:

Every now and again I'll put a MACD on the charts just to see if the two agree, and it's shown a clear divergence on the daily and the 3 hour, going back a couple of weeks.

It doesn't live on my chart, but when price makes higher highs and it makes lower highs on a daily chart, I start to wonder. This divergence has clouded my "faith" in the trend.

Last but not least, if anyone here is familiar with MT4 price alerts to mobile phones, could you PM me, my timezone makes London and New York sessions uncomfortable, and I would rather just get an email if price gets near an area I'm interested in.

Have a good week-end everybody.
  • #8,131
  • Jun 12, 2009 2:02pm Jun 12, 2009 2:02pm
Quoting Low
if anyone here is familiar with MT4 price alerts to mobile phones, could you PM me, my timezone makes London and New York sessions uncomfortable,...
I need to know this as well. I had this setup a while ago but need to do it again and forgot. Please PM me as well.

Low, yeah, not being able to trade London and NY sessions is a big handicap in this business. Glad you're looking for ways to ease the pain.
  • #8,132
  • Jun 12, 2009 2:38pm Jun 12, 2009 2:38pm
Hi all... funny the timing on the requests for an alert system... I just spent the last 2 days programming my own EA to do exactly this. I found the MT4 alerts a little lacking in the kind of detail I want, so I had to figure out how to code in MT4's EA language.

The result is an EA that does nothing with regards to trading, as I don't really believe EA's can make money. Instead, I load it onto a chart, any chart(s) of M15 or higher and any currency pair(s), and it will send my blackberry an email instantly after a bar closes. With the very first tick of the next bar, it grabs the high, low, open, and close of the bar that just closed, and emails it to me, as well as a screenshot that is the pixels high and wide of my blackberry's screen.

I got so pissed off on Monday as I was long at 1.3875 and got stopped out while out for dinner, only to find that it had pinned 10 pips under my stop and gone north again while I was out. Missed about $5K of profits. If I had some kind of notification and was able to see that it had pinned, I would have been able to enter long again either by rushing home to my comp, or calling my broker.

This EA requires emails to be sent out via your default mail program, for me it's Outlook. Microsoft decided to be "smart" so they prevent any program from hijacking Outlook's outgoing email abilities, namely to prevent virus spread, so I had to d/l this little program to make Outlook play nice. I currently am using the trial version of it and it's great. Looked for a crack on torrents but wasn't able to find one as it's a rather specialized program of no interest to pirates. It will be about $30 when I have to buy it at the end of the month's demo. That's the only cost for the setup... and trust me, if I could get it free, I would.

This way, I'll always know what the market is doing if I'm away from my comp, just by activating my EA button in MT4.

Oh and by the way, I had to set up a special email with my cell carrier, Rogers in Canada that only works on my blackberry. It's ([email protected]). This is only viewable on my blackberry, but that's how I want it, and it is lighting fast. 2 seconds after the bar closes, my cell notifies me of the new message that's arrived.

If anybody wants it, PM me. Also, sorry Jacko for hijacking. I'm done now.
  • #8,133
  • Jun 12, 2009 9:02pm Jun 12, 2009 9:02pm
Low and RickyRudy - you have a PM
  • #8,134
  • Jun 13, 2009 12:05am Jun 13, 2009 12:05am
Quoting Pipped
Low and RickyRudy - you have a PM
Thx pipped. You rock.

On a side note....I recently went through the part of the thread where E/U fell off a cliff when everybody was looking for the continuation of the uptrend. Price ranged for almost 3 months, and then started plunging mid-July. I will be trying to keep an open mind in regards to direction should such a dramatic move occur again.

Stay alert.
  • #8,135
  • Jun 13, 2009 2:04am Jun 13, 2009 2:04am
Quoting Low
Thx pipped. You rock.

On a side note....I recently went through the part of the thread where E/U fell off a cliff when everybody was looking for the continuation of the uptrend. Price ranged for almost 3 months, and then started plunging mid-July. I will be trying to keep an open mind in regards to direction should such a dramatic move occur again.

Stay alert.
The truth is that we can only become more profitable in this field if we tend to trade what is happening today and not what we think will happen tommorrow.
we cannot succeed without a well defined risk management.
  • #8,136
  • Jun 13, 2009 7:45am Jun 13, 2009 7:45am
Quoting Pipped
Low and RickyRudy - you have a PM
Hey guys, would you mind counting me in... I've trying to get email/sms price alerts as well but MT4 alerts seem to work randomly. Sometimes I can get alerts for a few days and then all of the sudden MT4 just stops sending the alerts (check my packet sniffer and nothing comes out of the PC so the problem seems to be local...). I'll appreciate any info via PM as well.

Cheers
  • #8,137
  • Jun 13, 2009 10:46am Jun 13, 2009 10:46am
Quoting Jpnek
Hey guys, would you mind counting me in... I've trying to get email/sms price alerts as well but MT4 alerts seem to work randomly. Sometimes I can get alerts for a few days and then all of the sudden MT4 just stops sending the alerts (check my packet sniffer and nothing comes out of the PC so the problem seems to be local...). I'll appreciate any info via PM as well.

Cheers
Jpnec,

Your PM is disabled. I tried to send you a message. Google this: alertfx.com
  • #8,138
  • Jun 13, 2009 7:02pm Jun 13, 2009 7:02pm
Quoting Low
Jpnec,

Your PM is disabled. I tried to send you a message. Google this: alertfx.com
Low, thanks so much. PM is enabled now. I'll contact you via PM regarding price alerts as we do not want to clog this thread.

Cheers
  • #8,139
  • Jun 14, 2009 7:26pm Jun 14, 2009 7:26pm
Quoting fxtrader29
Much kudos for Jacko this week. His calls of the market have been out of the box good. He has been calling the highs and lows all week with a crystal ball I am still learning his system and using his calls for trades in both directions. It is a fabulous learning experience for me and the dollars are stacking up high. If I could get hold of Jacko's crystal balls I would never need to work again
Any newbie who is looking to learn how to trade like a professional trader should read the first pages of this thread until they know it by heart.
Read and...
I had a quiet week last week. <I was busy trying to poach 6 accountants from a competitor business to start a new office>. I missed Jackos early trades in the week but sold late in the week at 4100 and I am still holding.
I might start posting more of my trades here if that is alright. I want to keep a journal of my trades. Or should I start a different posting.
  • #8,140
  • Jun 14, 2009 8:31pm Jun 14, 2009 8:31pm
Quoting fxtrader29
I missed Jackos early trades in the week but sold late in the week at 4100 and I am still holding.
What's your plan for your position? Where is your SL now?

I'm interested in seeing your trades.
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