Extracted Thread (per thread starter's request)

Being on the sideline right now, I'm waiting for an opportunity that will make me happy.

Plan A is on the daily chart with a short order currently at 3839 and changed daily based on PSAR. If it happens, it may even have legs on the weekly chart.

http://i41.tinypic.com/2nsytkp.gif

Plan B is the one that could change it all. If it comes to fruition, this is where I single-handedly will redefine watching paint dry. If it materialized, I could be, unknowingly, writing a new chapter of the "Forex is boring" book. But if Nassim Nicholas Taleb who has just been introduced to my world thanks to Mikkom is right. If Nouriel Roubini, Max Keiser, Peter Schiff and Jim Rogers are right, this one could catapult my number of pips to the point that I would need Heavy Duty rolls of Ak's mental floss.

Plan B would be my first entry on the monthly chart at 4536 based again on PSAR.

http://i44.tinypic.com/2rqzxbq.gif

Plan A is the one I feel is more likely to materialize at this point.

That and $4 USD will get you a Frappucino at the Starbucks on North Central. Anyways it was Jaywalker that laid the vouch on you. Blame him.

Now that you're here tho, pull up a chair and say something Brilliant. We're all fresh out.

Just promise me you'll make that 100th post here a'rd the Table... whatever year it happens in.

**************

On another note, similar to Jay's sentiments, I'd really like to knock that thing a'rd some that mikkom posted... I personally think we're on the threshold of some otherwise unheard of and unprecedented events both here in the US and elsewhere... the world is getting reshaped as we speak, but it's not quite clear to me just yet which way what things will tip along the way.

I do see China as front and center in whatever happens and have done so now for at least the last 3 years. The current issues with Mexico are another Huge and potential game changer for life in the US as we've known it.

Well, this is all for another Post or three down the road... Still getting my thoughts together on that and very little of it is "overnight" type stuff, altho there's room for a catalytic event or two in the mix that sets the course for whatever follows..

BTW, I'm checking into the new thread by NewstraderFX as it gets off the ground... you can find it at How To Make 1000's of Pips by NFX (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=172144) and you may find it interesting as well.

Terrible title imo, and if it had been authored by anybody else, I would have ignored it on the title alone, but I'm finding it fascinating so far and I'm looking forward to his thoughts...

O. K. went back and read the vouch.

Thanks Jay... (( Really have to slow down while i am working and
read closer and comprehension.....))

It is still an honor tho...I never thought i would see one on my profile....

In a way these times remind of a movie i saw long ago called " Red Dawn "

Short synopsis: Russia and Mexico invade U. S.
Bunch of scouts called " Wolverines " try to resist imprisonment and enslavement. By being terrorists, they inflict enough pain on the advancing troups and inspire enough people to repell the invaders that the sheeple wake up and take the country back...

Close to whats happening now monetarily..

William

P. S. Went looking for my buddy Merlin and I did not realise, I have been around Forex Factory almost as long as Merlin. Merlin was here in March 04 and I came in Dec 04..

And reserve currency definition will play a big role in what will happen in the future.. and China of course.

For those interested in economic news but have not used social news sites yet, here are couple of great links:

http://www.reddit.com/r/Economics/
http://www.reddit.com/r/Economy

And here is some more stuff related to the [very] problematic environment FED / US gov is at the moment. This article should be an eye opener.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article11058.html

We are starting to see some buying of dollars again....

Took my short position earlier today in the gbpusd since I felt stronger with it...
took profits already and stop at break even already




I am still expecting a bigger push down longer term at least to the 6300 area but we might swing a couple of times before this takes place and the smaller timeframe traders get convinced and get the ranging face and give up on previous sentiment...

This is my analysis in the GBPUSD for mid term perspective

Here is the other pair I will post my thinking for ....

Mid term I believe we should come back down to the

4050 area if we can manage to maintain a dominant bearish close...

Getting closer to Plan A starting.

Short entry on the daily chart reviewed to 1.3909 based on PSAR.

http://i41.tinypic.com/11rdd7k.gif

Could not agreemore...thoug I am waiting for a retracement off the sell off we had yesterday so I can increase my reward and make it worth standing in front of the train better

Here is my mid term analysis for the gbpusd....

I will now watch price action to long this puppy back up to the 6500 area..If price agrees with my thinking around that price I will see if yesterdays move down was simply a spike into the bullish trend in the 4 hour or if it was a sentiment shift that is seeking to test deeper levels of support. I will watch price action to indicate what way to go ...I never trade with a solid bias I just look at how the market develops and fallow the large orders.

Today I have been able to land the short in the eurusd ...seems like we will test lower ...I will start looking for longs again around 4050

I'm titling this a Post NFP/ Pre-Weekly Close Middle of the Road muddle missive.

That's actually fairly self explanatory... as you'll soon see.

Did we hit 4350? Close enough at 4336 for the girl I married, and I'm Happy about that. Marrying that girl I mean. The trade worked out ok as well.

Are we in the early stages of the turn and burn into the ground off the highs I'm anxiously looking for? Mmmnn... Methinks not just yet.

Did we fall thru the 11sma that was my unofficial "line in the sand"? Yes but it took a screwy NFP to do it, and the we don't have a Close yet, so the Jury is Still Hung on that note, as that effect takes a while to cycle thru the market.

Bottom line... was this NFP move expected? Dude, it was NFP and the old girl may have been on the ropes for a few rounds but she's still got a wicked jab. So no, not quite but that's not the same thing as being shocked over it.

Are the bulls done? Methinks not just yet.

Has the Trend actually turned? Methinks not just yet...

Am I ready to climb on the Short Bus even tho my bags are packed and I'm ready to go? Methinks not yet... and certainly not from the basement.

I can wait till the day and the week actually Close to make my mind up. The (institutional) opportunity to reload some Long positions just looks too Juicy right now in the post NFP Pre weekly close swirl of adrenaline and emotion.

In spite of veiled jabs, smirks, and lots of barking from other quarters of the Peanut Gallery thread calling for something to get thrown to the Lions (preferably me) I'm holding to some sort of signal from the market that the Rush to leave the theatre is at hand. It may look like This and it may look like That.

Whatever it is, and If it is, I want to be on the Bus, not in front of it. Right now tho, I think I'm still in the station wondering why everyone is leaving...

Off on errands and look at a new hat. Never hurts to have a spare... especially after that Long at I opened at 3987... 55 pip stop.
EDIT: +3 locked on one entry (other one raised to -30) and and gone for the day

CHART NOTES: 3 separate fibs, tried to simplify them and shorten the lines for clarity, the aqua bar is the key right now (inside small yellow circle)

Here is my go at it....

As we can see we have finnally gotten a nice bitt of selling from higher timeframes to cover up longs...
I am expecting some retracement to this sell off we had this week simply because some people will take profits in the market causing some sort of pop up but if the market can sustain its strenght of direction over the complete cource of next week I can see price coming back down to the 1.3800-1.3750

Alright and here is my daily view for the eurusd....we are coming to an area of support so I do expect a bounce early next week ...so as soon as I get nice price action at the start of the week I will try and trade the retracement to the past couple of selling days. I dont know if this move down is a sentiment shift but for now I will simply see it as the first reall profits taking from the daily chart traders. I will watch price action as it moves up and see what the large orders are seeking. Defently will love that lower price that I see us visiting later on this week around 1.38-1.3750

Looking to buy the gbpusd

will start to seek price action around this area...next level is 5720

I hope you guys bought the gbpusd earlier today...

Because I sure did....easy money

Nice call... well done. I didn't really see it retracing quite that deeply altho it was a clear possibility as your EU chart showed very well.

A good example of my Bias beating my Common Sense over my head... I didn't lose any pips over it, but I didn't trade it as well going down as I did going up, and that is really for a Permabear....

I'm starting to take a fairly horizontal view of things now tho for the summer barring some potential periods of excitement now and then... I accidentally deleted my EU setup on my accucharts and will be rebuiding them for awhile in between projects and Life Requirements... ((No dear, I didn't back it up as recently as I thought I did... ))

The main factor I'm looking at right now is those long term 1 - 2 year MA's that we're crossing and recrossing atm... I'm pondering the Upper and Lower boundaries of what might be that range now.

But the jury is still out and hung on a couple issues... leaving myself some wiggle room in case I need it later.

Thanks for the post above mate

We might stay around this area for another day or 2 while something fundamentaly enters the market and drives it again...
but if buyers can sustain price we can expect ro revisit

4050-4100 should be obtained . But to get to this months high could only be obtained if this last push down is really not the new sentiment. Meaning we only had a spike to the trend...I will watch price action as the market moves but I will be trading the lower timeframes in upcoming range...

Alright here is my daily chart update...I have been trading the lower timeframes myself this week though...

I can see price taking a shoot back at this weeks low depending on how we close today...but for a fact we are now starting to experience the range I mantion earlier this week. I will be looking to seek shorts tomorrow but if price action dictates to go long I will go long from the smaller timeframes . I never have any bias whats so ever in the market I simply watch how the orders come into the market. This is the only way I have been able to trade as a full time trader and manage my investors money.

We can expect a revist of 1.38
or 1.4133

I am more incline for shorts at the moment but will go the otherway if needed.

3 charts to ponder, which I'm also trying to interpret in the context of GU and GY right now... I keep having this feeling there's a shadow player in the mix... wants to play but happy to stay hidden.

IMO, we're at the point where we either make that push up and get above this R zone for consolidation in a new EU range that will seemingly strangle the E-zone economy, or it fails whether by design or otherwise and we tip over the top and catch the bus down the other side... not an unheard of event in forex.

You just have to look at the right TF's and see the right things at the right time, and that's a lot harder than it sounds.

The first shows todays range of PA so far... a very sweet and not all that unusual Pivot Play thruout the sessions. Failure at one often precipitates a turn and burn to the opposite side of the field and repeat the scenario with the momentum off the bounces ((just look at M2 for an example). This is easier seen on lower TF's than the 1hr, but thats' another post or three... The day could close out between the green bar at M3 and the DP say either 4000/4020ish ((my short targets atm)) on any short term failure at current Resistance.

Second is the daily... very simple still as I slowly rebuild my charts, aqua is the 11sma and yellow is the 21sma. Potential Yoopoo forming but needs confirmation at some point and so far we don't have it. IF it develops, you'll want your hat to be on tight.

The current S/R zone defined by the 11/21sma is the range we need to break out of whatever happens. 3 consecutive days of hammering on the 4100ish R level with a rising support level is the Big Caveat for that Yoopoo scenario playing out.

Breakout above and I still like the green box for a target zone but I'm real flexible on that and have no need to call it to the pip, there's plenty of juicy targets up there to pick from. It's simply the 45xx (mid 1k) level with a little added on top for overshoot, no rocket science involved altho my old charts had some more refined targets in them should we get there.

Break below and the yellow zone a'rd the 50% is an obvious target (actually the whole zone from 3450 to 36xx is realsitic imo) which could also consolidate a'rd there for some time. Any serious collapse could open up all the way to the Red zone near the 23% FIB.

The best picture of the Caveat I spoke of on that Yoopoo following thru is simply my old standby tool, the Line Chart. I have beat that drum for many months here so all I'll do this time is post the chart and let everyone interpret it how they will.

For the newer participants here, what I mean by the above is that I essentially the only way I'll validate a candle chart head and shoulders formation (what I call a Yoopoo, or shampoo on Eu) on any TF is when it can also be confirmed on the Line style chart.

This one clearly has a strong upmove component developing that could easily invalidate this thing by weeks end. In that case, sometime next week, we'll look back and see where even tho price broke below those precious diagonal channel lines for a bit, all it really did was simply bounce off Hzl S/R at 38xx and continue upwards..

We'll see... Stay nimble and keep an extra hat in your kit.

PS... With 5m to go on the current hourly, it's loking a bit bullish, so to be clear, I'm not saying it IS failing at Resistance, but looking for signs that it might.

If it does, I know where my short term targets are... do you?