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Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

  • #3,661
  • Jun 10, 2009 9:52am Jun 10, 2009 9:52am
This is EURUSD posted on another FF thread and is exactly how NOT to draw a TL.

This is a TL drawn to justify a trade or a belief.

TLs should ONLY be drawn from proven areas of support and resistance
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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,662
  • Jun 10, 2009 12:04pm Jun 10, 2009 12:04pm
Here's something which may be about as much use as a chocolate teapot or even a crack in a glass eye, but there again.....................................
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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,663
  • Jun 10, 2009 3:29pm Jun 10, 2009 3:29pm
Quoting strat
Here's something which may be about as much use as a chocolate teapot or even a crack in a glass eye, but there again.....................................
So are you suggesting we've seen the bottom for Fiber for now Strat?
  • #3,664
  • Jun 10, 2009 4:35pm Jun 10, 2009 4:35pm
Quoting AstonDan
So are you suggesting we've seen the bottom for Fiber for now Strat?
Not suggesting anything, Dan. Just presenting the facts.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,665
  • Jun 10, 2009 5:54pm Jun 10, 2009 5:54pm
BIG BOSS - Trend is down. Getting close to the trend line. Waiting to see if it what happens around there.
BOSS - Stairstepping higher with 2 confirmed swing lows (see rectangles on weekly chart).
DAILY - Stepping higher since bouncing off of 94 support.

Been watching a triangle form on the daily. We have broken out to the upside and come back to test it, but we have resistance above. Could it be a double fake or the real deal?

With all the resistance above I am skeptical about the upside and am waiting things out to see if this is just another play to suck in the retail traders and continue the slide to the downside. Looks like it is turning, but...

So, what do you guys think?
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  • #3,666
  • Edited 7:38pm Jun 10, 2009 6:30pm | Edited 7:38pm
Indeed, I agree with this. My sentiments began as a fundamental view as risk aversion ebbed; the technical flows have been progressively supportive. The real tests are at hand, however, as the technical levels are now tested. I have the advantage of holding positions, although honestly, I would be adding if levels are breached and succesfully held.
  • #3,667
  • Jun 10, 2009 8:08pm Jun 10, 2009 8:08pm
Quoting One14
BIG BOSS - Trend is down. Getting close to the trend line. Waiting to see if it what happens around there.
BOSS - Stairstepping higher with 2 confirmed swing lows (see rectangles on weekly chart).
DAILY - Stepping higher since bouncing off of 94 support.

Been watching a triangle form on the daily. We have broken out to the upside and come back to test it, but we have resistance above. Could it be a double fake or the real deal?

With all the resistance above I am skeptical about the upside and am waiting things out to see if this is just another...
Well my BIG BOSS is stair stepping down making LLs and LHs and looks ready to test 87ish again.
My BOSS is in a confirmed downward channel making LLs and LHs.
My Worker is in a less degree downward channel making LLs and LHs (just).

Still in a downtrend until the BOSS takes out 101.50
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,668
  • Jun 10, 2009 9:18pm Jun 10, 2009 9:18pm
Quoting strat
Well my BIG BOSS is stair stepping down making LLs and LHs and looks ready to test 87ish again.
My BOSS is in a confirmed downward channel making LLs and LHs.
My Worker is in a less degree downward channel making LLs and LHs (just).

Still in a downtrend until the BOSS takes out 101.50
Strat...this is where I am getting confused with trend (or maybe I just need to write this to reinforce it in my mind).

Agreed that the Big Boss is in a downtrend. Why do you expect (maybe expect is the wrong word) it to test 87 when the Boss is stepping higher? I do understand that the Big Boss is in charge.

Was I incorrect in pointing out that the Boss is stepping higher from Jan Lows on support at each swing? The next logical point to keep the counter trend (uptrend) intact is passing 101.50 as you stated (the previous swing high). This would also break the overall downtrend.

So, to keep stress free, we look for downward PA at resistance levels and especially 101.50. If it doesn't happen and we keep going higher, we have broken the downtrend and then we are officially on the turn table, yes???

Any trades on the way up to 101.50 would be ATM trades, correct?
  • #3,669
  • Jun 10, 2009 9:54pm Jun 10, 2009 9:54pm
Quoting One14
Strat...this is where I am getting confused with trend (or maybe I just need to write this to reinforce it in my mind).

Agreed that the Big Boss is in a downtrend. Why do you expect (maybe expect is the wrong word) it to test 87 when the Boss is stepping higher? I do understand that the Big Boss is in charge.

Was I incorrect in pointing out that the Boss is stepping higher from Jan Lows on support at each swing? The next logical point to keep the counter trend (uptrend) intact is passing 101.50 as you stated (the previous swing high). This would...
""when the Boss is stepping higher?""

How do you see the Boss stepping higher?
June 07 was H
March 08 was L
Aug 08 was LH
Dec 08 was LL
April 09 was LH

How is that stepping higher? If it continues in this trend then it will test the previous low of 87ish.

""The next logical point to keep the counter trend (uptrend) intact is passing 101.50 as you stated (the previous swing high). This would also break the overall downtrend""

To confirm a new trend, it will also have to put in a HL after the HH at above 101.50

Because it's in a downtrend, we sell the rallies, yes. Any buy trades are against the trend and carry more risk.

Does this help any better? It seems like you are reading the BOSS wrong somehow.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,670
  • Jun 11, 2009 1:32am Jun 11, 2009 1:32am
Quoting strat
I am a professional trader. My job is to take risk. If I manage my losses and let my profits run I will be successful. Because I am a professional trader, I will forgive myself easily for making mistakes and move on to new opportunities. I feel great that I have the discipline to control my emotions and the patience required to be a professional trader. I am a professional trader and will make $1,000,000 by year end. I will achieve this by following my trading plan, setting achievable goals, and controlling my emotions. I am confident and believe in my own ability to be consistently profitable because I AM a professional trader.
I just wanted to bump this for anyone who hasn't actually grasped how helpful this is ... if i read this before, during and after my trading sessions i KNOW i will deal with things psychologically a lot better than i may have in the past .

Thx Strat
  • #3,671
  • Jun 11, 2009 4:04am Jun 11, 2009 4:04am
im still short usd......
  • #3,672
  • Jun 11, 2009 4:07am Jun 11, 2009 4:07am
and long this thread.....el duende....wicked and pipmyride.....i remember you from the james16 thread.....are you on the daily now.........good!


do you all miss me......a little you do

btw....I am a pro trader!!!!!
  • #3,673
  • Jun 11, 2009 5:46am Jun 11, 2009 5:46am
Quoting Baba G
.....are you on the daily now.........good!


do you all miss me......a little you do

btw....I am a pro trader!!!!!
lol i'll never learn ........

How long does that little naughty twat in the back of your mind keep telling you to just take a stab counter-trend ??
  • #3,674
  • Jun 11, 2009 7:05am Jun 11, 2009 7:05am
Quoting strat
""when the Boss is stepping higher?""

How do you see the Boss stepping higher?
June 07 was H
March 08 was L
Aug 08 was LH
Dec 08 was LL
April 09 was LH

How is that stepping higher? If it continues in this trend then it will test the previous low of 87ish.

""The next logical point to keep the counter trend (uptrend) intact is passing 101.50 as you stated (the previous swing high). This would also break the overall downtrend""

[color=blue][color=black]To confirm a new trend, it...
I'm not trying to beat a dead horse here, but I do want to ensure I understand.

If you look back at my Boss chart I drew a trendline on the highs you mentioned. I do see the downtrend you are talking about.

The thing that sticks out to me now, which may be me being too picky, is the lows in Dec/Jan. It looks like we tested the Dec Low in Jan (I highlighted the bar) and then since then have been going up (swing low in Dec/Jan, swing high @ 101.45, and the second swing low I highlighted).

Am I missing something? We haven't hit the downtrend line yet, but I am waiting to see what happens there. Since I am still only trading Hammers and Stars, and price has been moving countertrend, I haven't taken any trades. Just thinking about it.

It just seems to me that we may have double bottomed, but won't know for sure until 101.50. We have been moving higher for about 5 months! I see what you mean about discipline and patience.

How will I know to take a shooting star trade? Wouldn't it have to break 101.50 (since stars are at the end of a trend)?
  • #3,675
  • Jun 11, 2009 7:51am Jun 11, 2009 7:51am
Quoting One14
I'm not trying to beat a dead horse here, but I do want to ensure I understand.

If you look back at my Boss chart I drew a trendline on the highs you mentioned. I do see the downtrend you are talking about.

The thing that sticks out to me now, which may be me being too picky, is the lows in Dec/Jan. It looks like we tested the Dec Low in Jan (I highlighted the bar) and then since then have been going up (swing low in Dec/Jan, swing high @ 101.45, and the second swing low I highlighted).

Am I missing something? We haven't hit the downtrend...
Corbett, don't worry, keep asking, this is the only way you will learn.

Everything you say is correct but until the highs and TL are broken we remain in a downtrend. What may be confusing you are the two consolidation areas which I highlighted. The first is when the credit crunch hit the fan and USD lost its direction for a time and the one we are going through now where sentiment on the USD seems equally divided between the buyers and the sellers.

Whenever there is confusion, all we can do is stick with the technicals. If sentiment changes and buyers go back into USD then we will see that upper TL broken, the high of 101.50 taken out with a higher low BUT until then, we are still short USD and the trend is down.

It sounds like you are maybe trying to second guess the market which is very costly - don't do it - let the market tell YOU where she wants to go then, FOLLOW her.

Now, as for Hammers and Shooting Stars, we only trade them when they are at support and resistance with everything else lining up (confluence).

If you still have questions, ask again
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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,676
  • Jun 11, 2009 7:53am Jun 11, 2009 7:53am
Quoting el_duende
AUD/USD

I am now recording my trades in excel and recording screenshots of when I take the trade to review wether it is right or wrong trade

So here is my 1st one

Long : 0.8013, I have listed some reasons in my excel trade plan
el duende, I haven't forgotten you, I'm just waiting for the end of the week as I may have more to show you then (there again, maybe not!)
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,677
  • Jun 11, 2009 8:00am Jun 11, 2009 8:00am
Quoting strat

It sounds like you are maybe trying to second guess the market which is very costly - don't do it - let the market tell YOU where she wants to go then, FOLLOW her.
I was reading a thread on another forum about Market Makers and one of the posters (an ex-MM i think) said: "Giants leave big footprints."

I love this - do you want to be following those footprints or get caught underneath them?

I know where i'd rather be
  • #3,678
  • Jun 11, 2009 8:12am Jun 11, 2009 8:12am
Quoting AstonDan
I was reading a thread on another forum about Market Makers and one of the posters (an ex-MM i think) said: "Giants leave big footprints."

I love this - do you want to be following those footprints or get caught underneath them?

I know where i'd rather be
Oh yeah, baby, under the feet of Denise Milani everytime!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,679
  • Jun 11, 2009 1:30pm Jun 11, 2009 1:30pm
Quoting pipmyride
lol i'll never learn ........

How long does that little naughty twat in the back of your mind keep telling you to just take a stab counter-trend ??

untill you start making money the other way bro....and had enough of losing...

just dont stop...its all apart of the path
  • #3,680
  • Jun 11, 2009 1:37pm Jun 11, 2009 1:37pm
can you see the battle?

did you take that "pin" on cable short....did u.....you know who you are..
..let me know

we can talk about it.......g
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