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EUR/GBP Trendmagic System

  • #1,461
  • Jun 11, 2009 1:29am Jun 11, 2009 1:29am
Originally Posted by TudorGirl http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
That's true!! Actually, I think it was Steve who persuaded me to write a MTF version of the indie.
...
But if you only watch 1 or 2 pairs, go with the STF indy and avoid the whole "is my indy repainting" aggro...

Anne


btw, TG - if those "mtf repainting" yelling will get too annoying - make them version something like attached -
those mtfs wouldn't repaint - ever : )))))))))))))))))))
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 macd_tf.mq4   2 KB | 674 downloads
  • #1,462
  • Jun 11, 2009 1:33am Jun 11, 2009 1:33am
I think I should start by congratulating both Paulus and Anne for their great work and to thank them both for sharing it with us. This system really looks promising. Unfortunately, my schedule does not allow me to trade live. I barely had the time to catch up with this thread!
I'd like to test these indicators in an EA (I'm a programmer), backtest, see how they perform on different pairs, etc. It's good to see you guys nailing those pips, but let's remember that the fact that a system is working today does not imply that it will continue to work tomorrow, unless the math behind it is rock-solid. So, while enjoying those pips, I propose we try to make sure they'll keep on coming no matter what tricks the market will pull on us.
Ok, having said that, here's some of the things I think this system needs in order to move forward:
1. The MTF indy could derive the 4 timeframes from the 1M timeframe, in order to get around the MT4 problem with testing mode. As you probably know, in testing mode MT4 only gives us access to one timeframe making MTF indicators unusable in backtesting. I think backtesting performance is essential for an adaptive system. Forward testing is great and necessary, but tuning (not curvefitting) is best done in backtesting.
2. I respect the fact that Anne chose not to publish the source code for the indicators, but I would like to know some details, for example how did she rewrite the TrendMagic indy (I assume she replaced the SMA with some low-pass filter). Or how did she make the Laguerre adaptive. Or why did she rewrite the BB-MACD. Finally, how is the voting implemented and what exactly defines a yellow dot?
3. I think choosing the right timeframe is very very important for the success of this system. At some point Anne was telling us that the 11.2 minutes was the best timeframe to use. Was the FNN algorithm used to determine that figure or something else? How about we try to do that at run time?
4. Can we decipher the magical secret of the numbers used in this system? CCI(50), ATR(5), BB-MACD(144,233,21,1.1). Why do these numbers work better than others? Maybe if we understand why they work today, we'll be able to adapt and find the right numbers for any market condition. I don't believe in magic. I know for sure it's all math.
5. A suggestion for the MTF indy: the yellow bars could still be shown in the 4 timeframes, but as black (empty).
6. As a general note, I think we should aim to improve the indicator so that entry and exit signals are produced. The indicator should then be followed blindly in trading. Ultimately, the success of the indicator should depend on money management, discipline, and a bit of luck (just a bit).

Ok, enough for the first post, have a great day everyone!

K.
  • #1,463
  • Jun 11, 2009 1:33am Jun 11, 2009 1:33am
I will be pulling of the post for a while,

Im finding the constant repetitive questions are wearing me down.

I will answer questions privately if you want to send them and if they havnt been asked before I will post them to the thread,

Im pleased the thread has grown and you will still see me logged in ,but Im finding moderating it very time consuming.When I have something positive to say I will post it

Stay tuned focused un emotional calm patient

Paulus
  • #1,464
  • Jun 11, 2009 1:43am Jun 11, 2009 1:43am
Very Easy and simple method to look exits is using trendlines.

They show when trend changes or movement ends.

Like situation now in eur/gbp

Asian session trend has been up and its still up , we did come
very near to break main drenline from start of asian session
but still it shows up.

Method is here if is long exit when drendline breiks.
Attached Image
  • #1,465
  • Jun 11, 2009 2:10am Jun 11, 2009 2:10am
Quoting klentz
I think I should start by congratulating both Paulus and Anne for their great work and to thank them both for sharing it with us. This system really looks promising. Unfortunately, my schedule does not allow me to trade live. I barely had the time to catch up with this thread!
I'd like to test these indicators in an EA (I'm a programmer), backtest, see how they perform on different pairs, etc. It's good to see you guys nailing those pips, but let's remember that the fact that a system is working today does not imply that it will continue to work...
You must read the thread!
  • #1,466
  • Jun 11, 2009 2:35am Jun 11, 2009 2:35am
Paulus,

Sorry to see it come to this and really hate to see you depart. Seems like this always happens to the better threads. Offer and option for "Nick's Place" still stands. I wish you well, my friend.

Quoting Paulus
I will be pulling of the post for a while,

Im finding the constant repetitive questions are wearing me down.

I will answer questions privately if you want to send them and if they havnt been asked before I will post them to the thread,

Im pleased the thread has grown and you will still see me logged in ,but Im finding moderating it very time consuming.When I have something positive to say I will post it

Stay tuned focused un emotional calm patient

Paulus
- Bowen (a.k.a. Wolf)
  • #1,467
  • Jun 11, 2009 2:37am Jun 11, 2009 2:37am
Short EURGBP
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp.gif Size: 34 KB
  • #1,468
  • Jun 11, 2009 2:59am Jun 11, 2009 2:59am
All,

Here is an updated version of the Vorticity indy.

The current indy does not have "bugs". it is just the way it works. It uses the old Lanczos "differentiation under the integral sign" trick to achieve integration (smoothing) of the derivative (momentum).

The window is set to 5 so it takes samples (t-2), (t-1), (t), (t+1), (t+2).

There is therefore a 2 bar "lookahead".

I think I am right when I say that I can guarantee the indy cannot repaint more than 2 previous bars.

Anyway, try it. You can always go back in the thread and get the old one again if you prefer it.

--------

I am joining Paulus away from the thread for a while. I need to learn how to trade. As I said, I am not making pips - only indicators.

It is very easy for me to transfer my technology to you - I just have to post the indy for you to load up.

But for me to have what you have is MUCH more difficult and may take me a long time. I could do with some help, actually.

Anne
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 TudorGirl_Vorticity_2.ex4   3 KB | 1,759 downloads
  • #1,469
  • Jun 11, 2009 3:05am Jun 11, 2009 3:05am
Quoting TudorGirl
All,

Here is an updated version of the Vorticity indy.

The current indy does not have "bugs". it is just the way it works. It uses the old Lanczos "differentiation under the integral sign" trick to achieve integration (smoothing) of the derivative (momentum).

The window is set to 5 so it takes samples (t-2), (t-1), (t), (t+1), (t+2).

There is therefore a 2 bar "lookahead".

I think I am right when I say that I can guarantee the indy cannot repaint more than 2 previous bars.

Anyway, try it. You can always go back in the...
Thanks for the new indi TG

For your trading learning :

The best way is to think about longer term and to make a reasonnable target of pips each days, says 20 pips (think how many times you could exit with 20 pips, yeah you see what i mean).

Think how you can made in a year, with 20 pips a day !

Once your day is made, GET OUT OF YOUR HOME (sun, beach, shopping, etc).

Markets will be forever here, and tomorrow is another day.

I wish you much success
  • #1,470
  • Jun 11, 2009 3:09am Jun 11, 2009 3:09am
Quoting TudorGirl
All,

Here is an updated version of the Vorticity indy.

The current indy does not have "bugs". it is just the way it works. It uses the old Lanczos "differentiation under the integral sign" trick to achieve integration (smoothing) of the derivative (momentum).

The window is set to 5 so it takes samples (t-2), (t-1), (t), (t+1), (t+2).

There is therefore a 2 bar "lookahead".

I think I am right when I say that I can guarantee the indy cannot repaint more than 2 previous bars.

Anyway, try it. You can always go back in the thread and...
thanks TG . let me test it... let me know what can i help u with.. but sure everybody here willing to help such a nice girl like u.. cheers..
Patience is the keyword here...
  • #1,471
  • Jun 11, 2009 3:09am Jun 11, 2009 3:09am
Quoting TudorGirl
All,

Here is an updated version of the Vorticity indy.

The current indy does not have "bugs". it is just the way it works. It uses the old Lanczos "differentiation under the integral sign" trick to achieve integration (smoothing) of the derivative (momentum).

The window is set to 5 so it takes samples (t-2), (t-1), (t), (t+1), (t+2).

There is therefore a 2 bar "lookahead".

I think I am right when I say that I can guarantee the indy cannot repaint more than 2 previous bars.

Anyway, try it. You can always go back in the thread and...
Check it now...
Thanks TG...
  • #1,472
  • Jun 11, 2009 3:12am Jun 11, 2009 3:12am
Quoting TudorGirl
All,

I am joining Paulus away from the thread for a while. I need to learn how to trade. As I said, I am not making pips - only indicators.

It is very easy for me to transfer my technology to you - I just have to post the indy for you to load up.

But for me to have what you have is MUCH more difficult and may take me a long time. I could do with some help, actually..
Then I'll miss you for a while TG ! After all, thanks for the Indi !
  • #1,473
  • Jun 11, 2009 3:16am Jun 11, 2009 3:16am
Quoting njsps
You must read the thread!
What makes you think I didn't read it?

I was thinking of a possible improvement of the indicator. Our indicators are a function of price, therefore they must be lagging. By the time the signals are confirmed, some more bars pass. As long as the trends are ample, we can still catch some portions of them. But what is moving the price? Supply and demand. What can reverse an uptrend? An increased supply. How can we see that before it happens? Volume! I know MT4 brokers don't provide real market volume (do you know any that does?), but we could still manage by using volatility as an indicator of volume delta. I think that if we could factor volume into the indicator, this could vastly improve our exit strategy and perhaps even filter out those false trend breaks that make us exit early. My $0.02.

K.
  • #1,474
  • Jun 11, 2009 3:17am Jun 11, 2009 3:17am
Quoting TudorGirl
All,

Here is an updated version of the Vorticity indy.

The current indy does not have "bugs". it is just the way it works. It uses the old Lanczos "differentiation under the integral sign" trick to achieve integration (smoothing) of the derivative (momentum).

The window is set to 5 so it takes samples (t-2), (t-1), (t), (t+1), (t+2).

There is therefore a 2 bar "lookahead".

I think I am right when I say that I can guarantee the indy cannot repaint more than 2 previous bars.

Anyway, try it. You can always go back in the thread and...
Hi Anne,
Do you use the advanced charts/dealthru feature of the IGIndex offering? I suspect that you can set this up to autotrade via the the dealthru feature. This maybe a solution to the pip problem. Alternatively, I can send you a selection of trading ebooks that I couldn't live without also Edge's long post covers most of the essential details. Are you struggling with the emotional aspect of trading?

Max
  • #1,475
  • Edited 3:37am Jun 11, 2009 3:25am | Edited 3:37am
Quoting klentz
What makes you think I didn't read it?

I was thinking of a possible improvement of the indicator. Our indicators are a function of price, therefore they must be lagging. By the time the signals are confirmed, some more bars pass. As long as the trends are ample, we can still catch some portions of them. But what is moving the price? Supply and demand. What can reverse an uptrend? An increased supply. How can we see that before it happens? Volume! I know MT4 brokers don't provide real market volume (do you know any that does?), but we could still...

You already know that volume modelling is very difficult simply because the patterns that play out are far from consistent. We know that volume precedes price but it difficult to determine precisely when (or if) that volume will impact price. You'd probably end up with a situation where many false signals will be received. Is declining volume on a price increase a sign that price is (or will) lose momentum or is it a sign that prior volume has created this momentum and more buyers will be attracted into the once price has increased a little further (a Giffen offer) etc etc etc?

I hope this GU uptrend is the real deal...ya gotta keep the faith because you know what Mark Douglas says...each trade is independant from previous and future trades, it the basket of trades that contain the edge. So you've suffer a few losses this morning does this mean that you should start second guessing, pausing, looking for other indicators, going back to bed etc etc, this will just make it more difficult to pull the trigger the next time and ultimately sabotage the edge that may exist within a given system's basket of trades.
  • #1,476
  • Jun 11, 2009 3:57am Jun 11, 2009 3:57am
Long EURUSD, +15 atm Paulus and TD
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.gif Size: 34 KB
  • #1,477
  • Jun 11, 2009 3:59am Jun 11, 2009 3:59am
Quoting klentz
What makes you think I didn't read it?

I was thinking of a possible improvement of the indicator. Our indicators are a function of price, therefore they must be lagging. By the time the signals are confirmed, some more bars pass. As long as the trends are ample, we can still catch some portions of them. But what is moving the price? Supply and demand. What can reverse an uptrend? An increased supply. How can we see that before it happens? Volume! I know MT4 brokers don't provide real market volume (do you know any that does?), but we could still...
Read Paulus' very first post - that answers your questions about the magical numbers - I guess it is all about math.

Read Anne's post #44, that clears up the trend magic modifications for you

Read Anne's post #66 - backtesting and EA development

Read the last couple of pages, at least 55 members are supplying data to determine best pairs and times.

READ THE THREAD!
  • #1,478
  • Jun 11, 2009 4:02am Jun 11, 2009 4:02am
Quoting TudorGirl
I could do with some help, actually.

Anne
Anne you are a very kind, talented, and generous person. thank you. if i can offer my help i would simply say that a truly effective and efficient trade plan in Forex is based on a mechanical system, not on intuition. develop an EA, that is my advice.
change the future, not the past
  • #1,479
  • Jun 11, 2009 4:12am Jun 11, 2009 4:12am
Just a quick update, this is where the test account posted yesterday ended up for the day.

I don`t have the detailed trades since the first update but the trades were GBPUSD short.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ScreenHunter_10 Jun. 10 19.07.gif Size: 21 KB
" Never let the past hold the future to ransom "
  • #1,480
  • Jun 11, 2009 4:16am Jun 11, 2009 4:16am
Quoting Gleneagles
Just a quick update, this is where the test account posted yesterday ended up for the day.

I don`t have the detailed trades since the first update but the trades were GBPUSD short.
thanks for the post Gleneagles, keep em coming!
change the future, not the past
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