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Peaches`s trading log

  • #81
  • Jun 9, 2009 1:03pm Jun 9, 2009 1:03pm
Quoting peaches
The pound is so bullish an all timeframes.

Notice on 4 h chart break of the kumo, and price goes back a bit to test new support, then price moves up. We seen green line crossing price (bullish), and also a neutral (because inside the cloud) buy signal (redline and blue line crossing).

Notice same on weekly ! Green line crosses price and we have had a weak (because it happens below the cloud) buy signal (red and blue line crossing).

But also notice how far away is the weekly cloud, as next serious resistance.
Peter
on 4 hr i CANT see price cross green line......it is stillon left of your chart,maybe i dont understand...??

baz
  • #82
  • Jun 10, 2009 2:04am Jun 10, 2009 2:04am
Quoting baz
Peter
on 4 hr i CANT see price cross green line......it is stillon left of your chart,maybe i dont understand...??

baz
Hi baz,

it is the other way around: the green line has to cross the price, this is a bullish signal (bullish in this example).

You see ichimoku charts have a few elements (6-10 i think), which work together and all together gives the painting.

If you have time and nothing else to do, I recommend this website:

http://www.kumotrader.com/ichimoku_w...itle=Main_Page

  • #83
  • Jun 10, 2009 3:04am Jun 10, 2009 3:04am
Quoting peaches
Hi baz,

it is the other way around: the green line has to cross the price, this is a bullish signal (bullish in this example).

You see ichimoku charts have a few elements (6-10 i think), which work together and all together gives the painting.

If you have time and nothing else to do, I recommend this website:

http://www.kumotrader.com/ichimoku_w...itle=Main_Page

thanks Peter
i will look over at this weekend

baz
  • #84
  • Jun 10, 2009 3:45am Jun 10, 2009 3:45am
here 4 h GU:

we have a bullish cross which is below the cloud a weak buy signal, but we have the green line going throug the price line (candles), plus we have the break of the kumo, the retest of the kumo (current 4 h candle, so what next ?

UP from point of ichimoku. Support is the low of the kumo cloud.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #85
  • Jun 11, 2009 8:36am Jun 11, 2009 8:36am
Hello dear traders,

I show you some candles wich are very irretating if you look only at thses candles, because one might think, a trend has stopped or will reverse.

But ichimokusystem gives explanation of this behaviour:

The tenkan sen is resistance/support, and it sometimes works as a resistance/support, which has to be taken, before continuation in trend. After full daily close above or below tenkan sen, easy continuatien of the trend....

Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: usdlfx.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #86
  • Jun 11, 2009 10:01am Jun 11, 2009 10:01am
Light blue area:

I use chikou span in the past for marking S/R lines:
I just make a simple red line through the parts,
where the chikou span makes an angel.

Orange area:

Other use of chikou span is as entry for trading:
go short if green line goes through price line,
which would have bad results for the first 3 or 4 weeks
in this example.

2. chart:

Third use of chikou span, is more a general purpose (see second chart):

For example you are in a bull market and have a bullish cross
above the kumo cloud PLUS you have the chikou span ABOVE the past (26 periods) price line, this would add more weight to the bullish cross.

In this case, if the chikou span would have been below the price line,
the whole ichimoku picture would not be perfect :-)
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #87
  • Jun 11, 2009 10:33am Jun 11, 2009 10:33am
see ichimoku work on 4 h usd/lfx:

1. bearish cross
2. re-test of kijun sen as resistance
3. retest of tenkan sen resistance
4. break of lower kumo cloud
5. free fall...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdlfx.gif Size: 26 KB
  • #88
  • Jun 11, 2009 10:43am Jun 11, 2009 10:43am
Notice on GU, today we have day 2 of nine of a tom demark sell setup.

See what happens last sell setup

Based on ichimoku daily next resistance is 1.70, but weekly above is the lower part of the cloud. Enter long here is maximum risk, which should not be taken, only for demo trading.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #89
  • Jun 11, 2009 2:54pm Jun 11, 2009 2:54pm
we have a weak bullish cross for usd/jpy.

It is weak because

-it happens below the kumo
-the chinkou span at this moment is below the price in the past.

But if you scroll back in time, you will notice these crosses a very rare.

Last time this happened at 11.02.2009.

edit: target remains 100.30
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  • #90
  • Jun 12, 2009 2:57pm Jun 12, 2009 2:57pm
GBP_USD Spot.png

i thought i will post my chart !!!

baz
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #91
  • Jun 13, 2009 1:51am Jun 13, 2009 1:51am
How interesting Baz were struggling with the weekly cloud
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #92
  • Jun 13, 2009 3:07am Jun 13, 2009 3:07am
Quoting Bones
How interesting Baz were struggling with the weekly cloud
yes,from what i understand about Ichmokou Cloud........although the weekly is Bullish,the 12 Hr Tf posted a Bearish Engulfing,after which there was a retrace of 50% fibo swing,and prices drifted lower at the close..

i think there may be a retrce on the Weekly...but as usual lets wait for the Candles ..

baz
  • #93
  • Jun 14, 2009 8:25am Jun 14, 2009 8:25am
Quoting baz
yes,from what i understand about Ichmokou Cloud........although the weekly is Bullish,the 12 Hr Tf posted a Bearish Engulfing,after which there was a retrace of 50% fibo swing,and prices drifted lower at the close..

i think there may be a retrce on the Weekly...but as usual lets wait for the Candles ..

baz
Hi baz, hi tony,

nice clean chart from you baz. Notice the bullish cross on your weekly GU chart, and price development after this cross

So crosses of the tenkan sen and kijun sen are very powerfull, but not alway successfull. Remember for a cross, the red line has to cross the blue line.

See eur/usd and usd/chf weekly, not easy, if we have right now a good crosses.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #94
  • Jun 14, 2009 8:48am Jun 14, 2009 8:48am
I have had some thinking about my bad trades last week, and see more clear now, where the causes for the losses are.

First I went long on the eur/lfx because price has not managed to close below
the kijun sen, and this nice green hammer: Ffailure, because this was a long trade below the kumo, never go long below the kumo, and short above the kumo.

Other trades I have had have on 4 h timeframe, with tight SL, which have been hit. So it is not a good idea to trade ichimoku system on lower timeframe.

Also only trade very clear signals.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #95
  • Jun 14, 2009 9:10am Jun 14, 2009 9:10am
From what I know, Friday the 19.06.09 is settlement day (I dont know the right translation, but it is the 3. friday every quarter), so I expect this week a very volatile week

But where are the targets until next friday ?

An easy one is usd/jpy:
  • #96
  • Jun 14, 2009 9:20am Jun 14, 2009 9:20am
usd/jpy has gone into the cloud an tested on the weekly the lower part of the cloud.

But on daily, you see on the last days how price tested the lows of the kumo and is now at the top of the kumo.

Because of the bullish cross, I am looking for a bullish break out, with target above 100.30. We have a trendline there, plus we have fibo extension levels.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #97
  • Jun 14, 2009 9:34am Jun 14, 2009 9:34am
But the eur/lfx

On the weekly we see this boring range inside the cloud.

The daily gives us something, we should have an eye on:

Will the tenkan sen cross the kijun sen during the week plus: will the green line walk through price candles ?? This would be powerfull bearish signals.

More interisting is the 4 chart. I`am currently in a trade from changing the colour of the candles. Will the kijoun sen hold as a resistance above ?

Also notice nice last wave down with fibo extension target 127.2. If we see currently next wave down, fibo target would be 2.5180.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #98
  • Jun 14, 2009 9:55am Jun 14, 2009 9:55am
What drives me crazy this week is the usd. Honestly, I`am not sure, if we see power bulls next week, to push the price to a certain level, which the big players have bets on.

My uncertainty starts with the 4 h chart: You see the nice large bullish candle, breaking through the cloud, then it was rejected from the kijoun sen back low, there it bounced back up from the lower part of the cloud.

On the daily drama goes on: Price clear breaks tenkan sen, but returned back next day. Is it a test of this tenkan sen ? Or will it break up on monday again ? This also happens above a fibo level, so

Plus, if we take this fibo level, the extension on the daily gives us targes for 1.86-188. If we change to the weekly, what is at this area ? The upper part of the kumo cloud.

I am not in a trade and will avoid it, until I see a clear direction.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdlfx4h.gif Size: 24 KB
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Click to Enlarge Name: usdlfxweek.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #99
  • Jun 14, 2009 10:10am Jun 14, 2009 10:10am
Nobody was more surprised then me, to see last weekly not a successfull
shooting star below the kumo.

I have traded a lot of successfull shooting stars below the kumo or a hammer above the kumo.

But on the weekly the kumo has not been violated yet, so it is difficult to decide.

Whats worth noticing is the detail on the daily: we have a flat kijun sen, and tenkan sen. This indicates a ranging market.

On the 4 h chart notice that the tenkan sen has been good support since 08. of june. In the last hours we have broken support, and retested it.

Lets see if it now drops further, or if it just was some SL hunting.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #100
  • Jun 14, 2009 1:42pm Jun 14, 2009 1:42pm
Quoting peaches
usd/jpy has gone into the cloud an tested on the weekly the lower part of the cloud.

But on daily, you see on the last days how price tested the lows of the kumo and is now at the top of the kumo.

Because of the bullish cross, I am looking for a bullish break out, with target above 100.30. We have a trendline there, plus we have fibo extension levels.
Just trying to learn....with USD/JPY DAILY ....does PRICE have to be OVER the Value of the GREEN line,and than it is considered a BUY or bullish ?

baz
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