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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #32,901
  • Jun 9, 2009 2:42pm Jun 9, 2009 2:42pm
I also just went short on GU 1.6336 wit stops at 1.6636 Based on confluence of resistance. I think the daily GU bullish pin was a good on at ppz, trendline and fibs. I didnt take it cos of hte weekly. But then the market moves in waves. Yesterday 4hr gave short pin signal, daily gave long pin signal and both played out. Hopeing the weekly plays out to.
  • #32,902
  • Jun 9, 2009 2:44pm Jun 9, 2009 2:44pm
Quoting supremeChaos
I did take $cad short (my only traded pair today). +73, then 2 small losses (very tight stops).
If you risk 2% per trade it doesn't matter if u have tight SL as the position size will be much bigger. I'm not sure what 73 pips means it can be, as it should be in some correlation with SL.
  • #32,903
  • Jun 9, 2009 2:47pm Jun 9, 2009 2:47pm
Quoting KissFan
I'll be watching this pair for reversal very carefully this week as it is approaching a strong PPZ. USDJPY has also reached major fib retracement levels. If we get the necessary price action for a short trade, I'll be looking for price to traverse back down to the 150ema. Here are a couple of charts.

K.I.S.S.
This opportunity finally came about. I have moved my stop on second position to BE. First target has been acheived. Very good risk reward on this trade. I used the range of the IB that broke as my initial stop.

Trade: Short two positions at 24 pips risk each entry short @98.34 (break inside bar) Total risk is 48 pips. Potential Reward is 204 pips.
Stop Loss: Initial at 98.58
Management Strategy: when price reaches 97.68 move SL to BE. First TP will be 97.68 . Second TP target will be the 97.00 area or around the 150 ema.
Price Action/Confluence: Reversal off 99.00. Consolidation then a break of IB on 4 hr chart. Was watching for this break for a couple of days.

K.I.S.S.
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  • #32,904
  • Jun 9, 2009 2:53pm Jun 9, 2009 2:53pm
Quoting james16
tough to see you lose on this one jd after the nice outside bar short on the daily.

where is the 365 ema on your daily chart at?

its at 6393 on mine.

if it works with your risk profile 6400 might hold as resistance.

NOT TRADING ADVICE im just mentioning something you may or may not have noticed.

how much profit did that weekly pin give you before it reversed?

jim
Thanks Jim. I got stopped out early this afternoon. My 365 is at 1.6404 (now, anyway)...entry at 1.5930, so up somewhere in ballpark of 130 pips. First take profit was at 1.5730 (0.5R). I wanted to give this all the chance it could so had my stop at 1.6330, using the 6/2/09 as final resistance...As we know, technically, the setup hasn't failed yet, as we still have 300 pips to the top of the pinbar. But a 400 pip drawdown was enough to tell me that my expectation on the trade was in this case wrong, and so get out...

For good or bad, I've found so far in my short trading career, that the weekly trades don't work nearly as well for me as daily trades. Perhaps it's because I wait till I have a substantial profit before taking any action. Something I may have to look into at some point.
Still way too small a sample size to go messing with my strategy now.

Thanks for continuing to monitor this thread Jim. You have positively impacted so many traders in the past 4 years and I'm sure before this thread started too...

Josh
  • #32,905
  • Jun 9, 2009 3:06pm Jun 9, 2009 3:06pm
4 hour pin off the 150 EMA with the trend.....nice
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  • #32,906
  • Jun 9, 2009 3:08pm Jun 9, 2009 3:08pm
Quoting Jduester
Thanks Jim. I got stopped out early this afternoon. My 365 is at 1.6404 (now, anyway)...entry at 1.5930, so up somewhere in ballpark of 130 pips. First take profit was at 1.5730 (0.5R). I wanted to give this all the chance it could so had my stop at 1.6330, using the 6/2/09 as final resistance...As we know, technically, the setup hasn't failed yet, as we still have 300 pips to the top of the pinbar. But a 400 pip drawdown was enough to tell me that my expectation on the trade was in this case wrong, and so get out...

For good or bad, I've found...

Stop should be at the top of the pin if you wanted to play it right, same as the 4hr same as the 1hr and same as I did with the 5min, If you are going to short off the weekly and watch it all day on a 1hr chart well that's just a bad idea. For me if I get into a trade on a daily / weekly or 5min I do NOT make a decision until a bar is closed out, too many fakes. Go back and look at what happens if you just watch the time you trade on, I know I would NOT make it if I scalped on the 3min then hit a tick chart to pick where I am going to get out on, yes some people do it but no one I know that plays a large sum of money.
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #32,907
  • Jun 9, 2009 3:09pm Jun 9, 2009 3:09pm
That's a really good point supremeChaos, and one that I'm trying to figure out how to handle personally.

Obviously we all have different personalities and loss thresholds but I think for most of us there is a $ amount that is "too much" money. Sometimes this is not a large % in terms of your account i.e. you might have a $100K account so $1K is only 1% of your account...but still $1K might feel like a lot of money to you.

So the point is will you be uncomfortable if you are $1K in drawdown? I know I would especially if the drawdown is for an extended period of time...say you're holding something for days/weeks. On the other hand I think a lot of people would be completely okay being in a $100 drawdown with a $10K account.

I think psychologically larger accounts bring their own issues and benefits and we should be prepared NOW because eventually we will get there and the problems we might/will encounter will be that our trading will change BECAUSE of the large account size which will bring Large winners & losers.

Supreme what was your exit strategy on the USD/CAD by the way?

Rubin.

Quoting supremeChaos
Jduester,
that was actually a general question but yes, somehow, i know your style. lol

hope u remember 1 of Sir james16's latest posts where i think he mentions a trade with $100/1pip. if that were your case, u surely would have pocketed some profits prior the GU 1.5810 reversal, right.. i often think about this as a reminder

I did take $cad short (my only traded pair today). +73, then 2 small losses (very tight stops).
  • #32,908
  • Jun 9, 2009 3:11pm Jun 9, 2009 3:11pm
Quoting ephisi
I also just went short on GU 1.6336 wit stops at 1.6636 Based on confluence of resistance. I think the daily GU bullish pin was a good on at ppz, trendline and fibs. I didnt take it cos of hte weekly. But then the market moves in waves. Yesterday 4hr gave short pin signal, daily gave long pin signal and both played out. Hopeing the weekly plays out to.
Hi Ephisi,
I'm with you on this one. Just took the same trade with a stop loss at the top of the prior weekly bar. I think I may have got in a little early, perhaps we may see a little move higher tomorrow before going downwards again..
best of luck,
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting...
  • #32,909
  • Jun 9, 2009 3:18pm Jun 9, 2009 3:18pm
Quoting Jduester
Thanks Jim. I got stopped out early this afternoon....
Probably a far better trader then myself, but if I was looking to pull early, I would probably do so after the 61.8 retrace of the top of the bar, if anything. Good resistance there and fib levels of course. May or may not actually protect, but I think by putting it beyond there, your giving yourself a better chance. I don't know, could be completely off, something to consider I think. I probably would of put it 10 pips past or so, been just barely taken out and been sad, I think others probably would do 25 or so at least.
  • #32,910
  • Jun 9, 2009 3:27pm Jun 9, 2009 3:27pm
In my opinion pin bars only signal a slight probability that price will reverse, and usually only as far as the first relative S/R level. After that its about managing your trade. The more I think about it the more I think technical analysis (including price action) can't predict price movement.
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #32,911
  • Jun 9, 2009 3:32pm Jun 9, 2009 3:32pm
Hey all,

Well all settled in here now, so it's back to some trading.Still playing catchup on the thread, I've only been gone 3 weeks and it's grown 100pages! Welcome back Ryan btw.

Just to ease myself back in got involved on some of the trades you have been taking

GBPUSD - daily Beob - once in profit set a 50pip trailing stop - bit low compared to the ADR but wanted to see some profit for the first trade - +150
EURGBP - daily pin - set target for 8610

GBPUSD weekly pin - was never certain about this so set entry 20pips below nose to make sure we got a good break. Got into the trade but decided to pull the plug early as i didn't like the look of it.
Been reading all those posts recently about managing risk and cutting losses, so decided not to sit through a retrace.


Feels good to be back into it even if i won't get the chance at any intraday stuff for a while.



GJ - thanks for the offer to hook up (sorry couldn't resist) will Pm

cheers

Simon
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  • #32,912
  • Jun 9, 2009 3:35pm Jun 9, 2009 3:35pm
Quoting Ryanmcd
... For me if I get into a trade on a daily / weekly or 5min I do NOT make a decision until a bar is closed out, too many fakes...
If I read you right, you are saying that your decision to exit is not made until a bar is closed. Correct? I agree with that but I do make decisions on entry many times by looking at lower TF's. In other words, my decision to enter is pretty much made to enter a daily trade but I'll "fine tune" my entry by looking for clues by watching the 4 hr chart. Tell me if you percieve any harm in this strategy. Thanks Ryan.

K.I.S.S.
  • #32,913
  • Jun 9, 2009 3:39pm Jun 9, 2009 3:39pm
Quoting markmm
In my opinion pin bars only signal a slight probability that price will reverse, and usually only as far as the first relative S/R level. After that its about managing your trade. The more I think about it the more I think technical analysis (including price action) can't predict price movement.
Hi Mark, in my oppinion, PA with S/R is the closest method you will ever come across that can predict price movement. All the people in this thread will tell you that, simple is better...
  • #32,914
  • Jun 9, 2009 3:40pm Jun 9, 2009 3:40pm
Quoting sertio
Hi Mark, in my oppinion, PA with S/R is the closest method you will ever come across that can predict price movement. All the people in this thread will tell you that, simple is better...
S/R I agree with, as long as its the right S/R.
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #32,915
  • Jun 9, 2009 3:42pm Jun 9, 2009 3:42pm
Quoting gorubin
That's a really good point supremeChaos, and one that I'm trying to figure out how to handle personally.

Obviously we all have different personalities and loss thresholds but I think for most of us there is a $ amount that is "too much" money. Sometimes this is not a large % in terms of your account i.e. you might have a $100K account so $1K is only 1% of your account...but still $1K might feel like a lot of money to you.

So the point is will you be uncomfortable if you are $1K in drawdown? I know I would especially if the drawdown is for...
I find MM to be bigger once you get more money as well as doing longer times and not looking at the charts all day so you can enjoy the money you worked for. Now when I put on a trade it's worth a car but it really does not matter because after taking several thousand trades it's all the same, you win some you lose some. If you get excited about the money and it changes the way you trade you will never pass that amount of money until you take your emotions out of the trade. The real pros you can never tell if they had a good or bad day because they know that the odds are with them due to having a edge and a trade is that just a trade. Trading to me has no emotion at all.
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #32,916
  • Jun 9, 2009 3:45pm Jun 9, 2009 3:45pm
Quoting KissFan
If I read you right, you are saying that your decision to exit is not made until a bar is closed. Correct? I agree with that but I do make decisions on entry many times by looking at lower TF's. In other words, my decision to enter is pretty much made to enter a daily trade but I'll "fine tune" my entry by looking for clues by watching the 4 hr chart. Tell me if you percieve any harm in this strategy. Thanks Ryan.

K.I.S.S.
That is okay I would think, what happens though and I know I used to do it too is you get in on say the 1 hour, them you CANT WAIT so you hop onto the 30min, oh that looks bad, then the 15min looks even WORSE then it come the OH NOES I GOT TO CLOSE IT OUT, even though it still was looking good on the TIME you entered it. Don't do that once you get into a trade look at the time you entered it, if it's a daily look at daily weekly use weekly. I see some people that are going to fail already when they take a weekly trade, then hit the hourly to kill if for a whopping +30 when they had a +700 pip stop LOL. Not only are you working harder but you are killing your profits as well as wasting a bunch of time doing dumb stuff. If you risk 2% at 700 pips killing it for +30 you may get a burger, take that 700 maybe profit food for a month....
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #32,917
  • Jun 9, 2009 3:46pm Jun 9, 2009 3:46pm
Quoting sertio
Hi Mark, in my oppinion, PA with S/R is the closest method you will ever come across that can predict price movement. All the people in this thread will tell you that, simple is better...
I think price bars/patterns etc show what price has done at S/R levels, not what will happen.
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #32,918
  • Jun 9, 2009 3:48pm Jun 9, 2009 3:48pm
Thanks for all the suggestions on how I could have traded this pinbar differently. I have not backtested any of them mentioned (except Ryanmcd's of putting stop at end of bar).

My testing found putting the stop 50% of bar height gave me more profit than using full bar height. It gives more stopped out trades, but higher R's when they work. You might recall Jarroo (Jim) and I talking about this a little bit a few days ago.

In my opinion, this type of stop placement is not dissimilar to how Jarroo and James play these bars (I think they position size or at least set a stop much closer than end of bar). If this is not correct Jim and James, please correct me. (I do understand that although the initial stop placement is similar, that the exit strategies of Jim/James are significantly different than mine).

In any case, it was my trade and I don't feel I did anything wrong. I traded my plan perfectly. It was a good setup to me and it was a loss... plain and simple. I've moved on. Hope you all can too.

Josh
  • #32,919
  • Jun 9, 2009 3:55pm Jun 9, 2009 3:55pm
Quoting Jduester
Yeah, holding the weekly pin... deep drawdown now... need it to stop!... or take a loss. It was a good setup IMO, so not bothered by it.

stop at 1.6330

Josh

Josh this is emotion over a trade, I am not trying to be a ass but once you get past this things will really change and you can trade with a clear head.

deep drawdown = fear
need it to stop = pain
it was a good setup = doubt

Josh, still is a good setup and I am still short this trade and I bet I have a little more skin in the game, Lets re-visit this post in 3-4 weeks and see what happens.
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #32,920
  • Jun 9, 2009 3:58pm Jun 9, 2009 3:58pm
Quoting Ryanmcd
That is okay I would think, what happens though and I know I used to do it too is you get in on say the 1 hour, them you CANT WAIT so you hop onto the 30min, oh that looks bad, then the 15min looks even WORSE then it come the OH NOES I GOT TO CLOSE IT OUT, even though it still was looking good on the TIME you entered it. Don't do that once you get into a trade look at the time you entered it, if it's a daily look at daily weekly use weekly. I see some people that are going to fail already when they take a weekly trade, then hit the hourly to kill...
So many things about trading go counter to human nature.

K.I.S.S.
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