Hey alkhatarey. Did you play (or demo) the break of the Eur/Gbp Daily PB? Looks like it had a draw down of about 10 pips after the break. Very nice.
Josh
james16 Chart Thread
Another chance to get short?
Pros:
- Confluence with the 50% Fib from the last swing high on 18/05.
- Descending trendline.
- With current trend.
Cons:
- Maybe not the best formed Pin around. Would have preferred a slightly longer nose and you will have to go back to 2006 on the weekly for any significant PPZ.
May have some trouble just below the break but will have to see how hard it breaks.
Pros:
- Confluence with the 50% Fib from the last swing high on 18/05.
- Descending trendline.
- With current trend.
Cons:
- Maybe not the best formed Pin around. Would have preferred a slightly longer nose and you will have to go back to 2006 on the weekly for any significant PPZ.
May have some trouble just below the break but will have to see how hard it breaks.
what your attempting to do is not easy. the methods taught in this thread are easy but as most of you know the battle is not really on the charts its between your ears.
jim
But do you think risking 5% on a single bar is "ok" if you're really picky? How do you do it, how many trades did you take for example last month or the month before on average? Or do you make most of your $ trading YM?
- #32,745
- Jun 8, 2009 4:27pm Jun 8, 2009 4:27pm
- Joined Sep 2005 | Status: J16 Senior Member | 13,635 Posts
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
- #32,746
- Jun 8, 2009 4:39pm Jun 8, 2009 4:39pm
- Joined Sep 2005 | Status: J16 Senior Member | 13,635 Posts
Pros:
- Confluence with the 50% Fib from the last swing high on 18/05.
- Descending trendline.
- With current trend.
Cons:
- Maybe not the best formed Pin around. Would have preferred a slightly longer nose and you will have to go back to 2006 on the weekly for any significant PPZ.
May have some trouble just below the break but will have to see how hard it breaks.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
- #32,748
- Jun 8, 2009 4:50pm Jun 8, 2009 4:50pm
- Joined Sep 2005 | Status: J16 Senior Member | 13,635 Posts
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
very informative chart, josh, thanks.
so, if the win rate is 90%, the probability of 2 consecutive losses is less than 40%, and 5% around for 3 losses in a raw. theoratically, this proves the feasibility to take 10-15% risk factor, if it were me, I think worth the adventure. however, it really depands on one's risk aversion profile to determine the strategy.
if we take into consideration other factors, then, reduce a little bit the risk rate to compensate the gap. Marco was asking 5%, isn't he? my point is that he probably can go a little bit...
some comments on this. If I could be sure that in the future my win-rate would stay at 90% than yes I could maybe think about it. But sadly this is not the case, I've got no crystal-ball or whatever, maybe I was just lucky - at least to some extent.
On demo risking 10%? No problem! But risking 10% of my hard earned money...I'd probably mess it all up...
I don't know how long you've been trading with real money that means something to you. And I don't know if you ever had to trade out of a 10-20% drawdown but for me this is not easy...and if I can I'll try to avoid it. I think 5% really is the top anyone should risk on a single trade...and I'd NEVER even think to go above this level. (Done that in the past already...once is enough!)
- #32,753
- Jun 8, 2009 5:38pm Jun 8, 2009 5:38pm
Marco
I am trading future contract live, my drawdown has been 15% around, as I mentioned, I tripled my account in a year so far.
But, the lesson for me is to go prudent a little bit more, so, I will reduce my risk factor a little bit in future. but, I really couldn't understand people like you who have the skill to manage high level of win rate refuse to take more risk in order to push up your equity curve, seems too conservative to me. sure, this games requires prudent, but, I think one could do it a little bit aggressive. look at the chart Josh provided, there is up side potential for you.
I am not persuading you to take more risk with your hard earned money, the only point I am making is, when people pay attention to trading style, be aware of the sycho makeup, there is a lot things one can manage in order to improve their bottom line.
I am trading future contract live, my drawdown has been 15% around, as I mentioned, I tripled my account in a year so far.
But, the lesson for me is to go prudent a little bit more, so, I will reduce my risk factor a little bit in future. but, I really couldn't understand people like you who have the skill to manage high level of win rate refuse to take more risk in order to push up your equity curve, seems too conservative to me. sure, this games requires prudent, but, I think one could do it a little bit aggressive. look at the chart Josh provided, there is up side potential for you.
I am not persuading you to take more risk with your hard earned money, the only point I am making is, when people pay attention to trading style, be aware of the sycho makeup, there is a lot things one can manage in order to improve their bottom line.
Hi Krue,
some comments on this. If I could be sure that in the future my win-rate would stay at 90% than yes I could maybe think about it. But sadly this is not the case, I've got no crystal-ball or whatever, maybe I was just lucky - at least to some extent.
On demo risking 10%? No problem! But risking 10% of my hard earned money...I'd probably mess it all up...
I don't know how long you've been trading with real money that means something to you. And I don't know if you ever had to trade out of a 10-20% drawdown but for me this is not...
- #32,754
- Jun 8, 2009 6:14pm Jun 8, 2009 6:14pm
- Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Screw Long Term 5min For Life! | 1,259 Posts
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money 
- #32,755
- Jun 8, 2009 6:22pm Jun 8, 2009 6:22pm
- Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Screw Long Term 5min For Life! | 1,259 Posts
Hmm well yes while waiting for a good daily setup you can teach us some about how you trade on a 5min-chart. I at least would love to hear
Not going to mix the 5min and daily, different mind set.
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
- #32,756
- Jun 8, 2009 6:28pm Jun 8, 2009 6:28pm
- | Commercial User | Joined Aug 2006 | 12,004 Posts
. I watched a old fellow trader lose 160k in one day and lose a 8 million $ account in 6 months playing options in 1999 - 2000
- #32,759
- Jun 8, 2009 6:58pm Jun 8, 2009 6:58pm
- Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Screw Long Term 5min For Life! | 1,259 Posts
Ya look up Wade Cook, they traded together LOL His name was Derick Lenord, "The Lenord Company" in SC. He was on one of his video's when he made I think 220k in 1 day off dell options, the never showed his big losses though. He was my 1st mentor so I was off to a good start.
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money