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Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

  • #3,621
  • Jun 6, 2009 8:37pm Jun 6, 2009 8:37pm
This process is called "Walking the Fibs"

As each swing is confirmed, just walk it from the next swing high to the next swing low etc.
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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,622
  • Jun 6, 2009 8:46pm Jun 6, 2009 8:46pm
Quoting Life of Pi_p
Look at who is making money in the markets. People trading SIMPLE methods. J16, J16 jr, Jacko, Clockwork, etc. Trading is so easy a Geico caveman can do it. Unfortunately our egos get the best of us way too often and we screw it up. I've been trading for almost 8 years and still have to tackle the gremlins and demons that make me want to outsmart the market.

I can throw out every book on fundies, technical analysis. They all mean squat to me at this point. PASR is all that is required. All I need at this point is Trading in the Zone and maybe...
I was doing the same. Thinking out plans of how to be smarter than everyone else. Then I saw that I didn't need to do that at all.
  • #3,623
  • Jun 6, 2009 8:46pm Jun 6, 2009 8:46pm
Quoting Alexandra
Took a couple of days off. USDJPY still holds interest, as the TL seems broken. The E/J has a bit of a wick, but the close to me is supportive and I am holding longs there as well. I also like A/D above the PB, and E/D at the bottom of that channel looks intriguing. I have no reason yet to suspect a trend change. Overall, I feel secure short yen, but need some supportive PA from the other recent movers.
Agree. EURJPY still technically in an uptrend. That $US surge came near the USDJPY swing high on Friday but the downtrend is hanging on by the skin of it's teeth!
Yes a break above 0.8270 on AUDUSD will put us long. We're thinking there's still some gas in the short tank for EURUSD and GBPUSD but won't be surprised if it runs out of gas!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,624
  • Jun 7, 2009 9:59am Jun 7, 2009 9:59am
Over this week-end I have been reading report after report on US$ sentiment. Some analysts are bullish US$ while an equal number are bearish US$. At least half of them will be right!

So, what to do? Remembering that analysts make very good headlines for their respective media and are paid to write and not trade (probably couldn't trade their way out of a paper bag!), we must go to where the truth is - The Charts.

Looking at a Monthly chart of USDX (not available on my Brokers data), we can see that the key support of 80/81 has been breached. Just a quick eyeball of that chart tells me that it wants to retest the prior bottom at 72/71ish.

Looking at the Weekly chart, it tells me that there is a re-test of 81 as resistance. If this holds, then a break below the low of this bar will confirm the continuation of the downtrend.

In this scenario, we will see EURUSD and GBPUSD and other USD denominated pairs, end their retrace and continue their bull trend. Conversely, USDJPY will end its rally and continue in its downtrend.

So, watch USDX closely for future direction (and ignore media reports!)
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File Type: doc USDX Monthly.doc   50 KB | 735 downloads
File Type: doc USDX Weekly.doc   67 KB | 767 downloads
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,625
  • Jun 7, 2009 11:20am Jun 7, 2009 11:20am
Quoting strat
Over this week-end I have been reading report after report on US$ sentiment. Some analysts are bullish US$ while an equal number are bearish US$. At least half of them will be right!

So, what to do? Remembering that analysts make very good headlines for their respective media and are paid to write and not trade (probably couldn't trade their way out of a paper bag!), we must go to where the truth is - The Charts.

Looking at a Monthly chart of USDX (not available on my Brokers data), we can see that the key support of 80/81 has been breached. Just...
Regarding "analysts" and what we hear from the media, its all a bunch of garbage. Most analysts have outside interests and influences directing their decisions. Charts are the only thing we can go by. Watch Jim Cramer explain how he (and others) would manipulate stocks and futures markets to help themselves
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  • #3,626
  • Jun 7, 2009 7:55pm Jun 7, 2009 7:55pm
I like the R/R of EURUSD and it's friends here. Even if they run out of gas, positions here stopped at the recent extremes won't cost much, but could prove quite profitable.
  • #3,627
  • Jun 7, 2009 8:13pm Jun 7, 2009 8:13pm
Hi All

Finally through all the previous posts on the thread - Yeah! Now all I need is practice on 1000's of charts.

I first started looking at the James16 thread about a year ago. His insistence on starting with daily and weekly time frames sounded like a good idea but I thought that I would miss out on too much profit potential that the shorter time frames seemed to offer.

All they offered me was greater risk. Never wanting to miss an opportunity I'd jump into trades using bits and pieces of several systems. After almost a year of frantic trading my account had dropped by 24% (would have been more if I hadn't kept to 2% risk on each trade).

Then over the next 4 months I had almost built it back to the original amount. But I was risking too much. Also - because I was trying to trade with the trend I stopped using SL's because price tended to come back in my favour. This worked for a while until I lost $2464 (50% of my account) on 1 trade.

That was last November. I stopped trading - started demo trading and started with the whole reassessment of what it is that I am trying to do with my trading.

After completing the thread review whats clear to me now is that I KNOW that I need to learn true PASR and that I'm now committed to trading the Daily and Weekly time frames.

Sorry this has been a bit of a ramble. Hopefully I'll be able to post some useful analysis soon.

Thanks
Greg
  • #3,628
  • Jun 7, 2009 8:42pm Jun 7, 2009 8:42pm
Quoting GregB
Hi All


I first started looking at the James16 thread about a year ago. His insistence on starting with daily and weekly time frames sounded like a good idea but I thought that I would miss out on too much profit potential that the shorter time frames seemed to offer.

All they offered me was greater risk. Never wanting to miss an opportunity I'd jump into trades using bits and pieces of several systems. After almost a year of frantic trading my account had dropped by 24% (would have been more if I hadn't kept to 2% risk on each trade).

Then over...
James16 insists that you DEMO on the daily and weekly first and show at least 3 months of profitability in doing so before considering live trading
  • #3,629
  • Jun 7, 2009 10:44pm Jun 7, 2009 10:44pm
Quoting GregB
Hi All

Finally through all the previous posts on the thread - Yeah! Now all I need is practice on 1000's of charts.

I first started looking at the James16 thread about a year ago. His insistence on starting with daily and weekly time frames sounded like a good idea but I thought that I would miss out on too much profit potential that the shorter time frames seemed to offer.

All they offered me was greater risk. Never wanting to miss an opportunity I'd jump into trades using bits and pieces of several systems. After almost a year of frantic...
Hello Gregg,

No, its not a ramble - just letting go of your past!

""daily and weekly time frames sounded like a good idea but I thought that I would miss out on too much profit potential that the shorter time frames seemed to offer""

I have never understood the logic in this. Shorter time frames bring tens of pips reward with huge stress and emotions. Daily brings thousands of pips reward with no stress. Weekly brings tens of thousands pip reward and boredom so it has to be treated as investing rather than trading.

What I do understand is that people trade shorter time frames for the adrenalin rush and excitement of playing a very expensive game instead of trading to make money. Also known as "Living to Trade" instead of "Trading to Live".

So that tells me you have a PATIENCE problem.

""I stopped using SL's because price tended to come back in my favour. This worked for a while until I lost $2464 (50% of my account) on 1 trade""

This tells me you have a huge DISCIPLINE problem!

Now the first step is STOP demo trading.

Then, the next step is learn to recognise Hammers and Shooting Stars and Support and Resistance then we'll take it from there. When you can do that, then go back to demo trading BUT only trading Hammers and Shooting Stars - this is where we will build your PATIENCE and DISCIPLINE.

Any questions at all, just ask
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,630
  • Jun 7, 2009 11:20pm Jun 7, 2009 11:20pm
Quoting Alexandra
I like the R/R of EURUSD and it's friends here. Even if they run out of gas, positions here stopped at the recent extremes won't cost much, but could prove quite profitable.
I like AUDUSD the best a nice IB created by the sunday bar
  • #3,631
  • Jun 8, 2009 1:52pm Jun 8, 2009 1:52pm
Here is my thoughts on cable. Although the daily bar hasn't finished (which I would check again b4 putting on a trade).

Thoughts on graph - and around key 1.6 s/r.

Don't all attack me at once
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  • #3,632
  • Edited 2:06pm Jun 8, 2009 2:05pm | Edited 2:06pm
And another one for your views..... maybe someone can help me out with the Bad column !
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  • #3,633
  • Jun 8, 2009 2:59pm Jun 8, 2009 2:59pm
Hi Strat and all the good people, thought i'd give an update on my progress. Well, I've had to officially reprimand myself, in fact i was close to Firing myself! Apologies for the long post.
It's become clear that after studying PA for about 5 mnths, I don't know as much as i thought. Recent trades have taught me, that i should not be trading live, especially at my pip size, as it's becoming Painful!
I started on J16 thread before finding the strat, and Strat, you are 100% RIGHT!! If you can't identify and trade a hammer or shooting star, then you have no business trying to trade DHLC, DLHC. BUOB, BEOB, IB etc, after such a short time.

I'm now at a stage of paralysis by analysis, even perfectly good trades i can't pull the trigger. I'm finding reasons for not trading, be it Risk/Reward, which is the first thing i think about when a signal appears, or be it a nearby MA or Fib or SR level.
April upto MidMay were good months, took a total of 7 trades, only 1 stopped out, the rest nice profits. Since then, only Losers. A problem i'm having,as an example, recently put on 3 trades at 10 GMT. I do check the charts before i leave for work, but i don't interfere or alter them in any way, because i have a plan, i've analysed the charts, and if i'm happy with the risk, then i have no reason to alter the trade just because its 50 pips up or down.
Whats pissing me off, for example on these 3 trades, before i left, 2 up about 40 pips, 1 down 40 pips. The 40 pips down just kept going, taking out my full S/L. No probs, i had a plan, it didn't work, move on. The other 2 went 100-120 pips in profit, before reversing and taking out my full S/L on both.Ouch!!
The signals on the daily seem more reliable, but it looks like they still need managing! Anyway, i've downloaded a EA which apparently lets you take partial profits, whilst maintaining a TS, we shall see.I've realised, that for me, i like to get move BE after 50-75 pips.
To sum up, i'm not trading live, i'm going back to start at the beginning of the Path, i will demo, even though i disagree with the principle, especially in the days of Micro accts. I'm only gonna trade Hammers/ S Stars, why the f>>k not, i have all the time in the world to get good at this stuff.
Regards to all.

A slightly despondent golfer
  • #3,634
  • Jun 8, 2009 4:04pm Jun 8, 2009 4:04pm
Quoting golfer27
Hi Strat and all the good people, thought i'd give an update on my progress. Well, I've had to officially reprimand myself, in fact i was close to Firing myself! Apologies for the long post.
It's become clear that after studying PA for about 5 mnths, I don't know as much as i thought. Recent trades have taught me, that i should not be trading live, especially at my pip size, as it's becoming Painful!
I started on J16 thread before finding the strat, and Strat, you are 100% RIGHT!! If you can't identify and trade a hammer or shooting star, then you...
Gary,
So sorry to hear this news and I'll resist the temptation to "have a go" at you (I am now on a "nice" streak!).

"studying PA for about 5 months" - I personally recommend at least 1 year of demo and trading micro lots before even thinking of trading with "normal" size lots. Like I've said before, you must practice (using f12) on thousands and thousands of charts until you can do it in your sleep while hanging upside down from the Golden Gate bridge while whistling "Dixie". Until you can do it on auto pilot and it becomes "second nature", just keep practicing.

""i should not be trading live, especially at my pip size"" I don't understand this. You had not proved yourself on demo or micro lots and yet you jump in to live trading with a pip size that is too big for your psyche to handle.

""I'm now at a stage of paralysis by analysis, even perfectly good trades i can't pull the trigger"" - Your confidence is shot so STOP everything and build your confidence back up by practicing and practicing and posting your analysis and demo set ups on here.

""The other 2 went 100-120 pips in profit, before reversing and taking out my full S/L on both"" - The problem here is your PLAN is not correct and maybe also your recognition and analysis of where your trade was in a trend/consolidation. Sounds to me like you took an ATM trade and you were looking for a trend trade. Again, this is all resolved by practice and posting your analysis.

""i've downloaded a EA which apparently lets you take partial profits, whilst maintaining a TS" - This is absolute and unadulterated RUBBISH! What you are doing is passing responsibility for your trades to a computer program! Either take 100% responsibility for your trades or pick something else to throw your money away on.

""I've realised, that for me, i like to get move BE after 50-75 pips"" - Again, my recommendation for all new traders is ONLY trade Hammers and Shooting Stars to the FIRST level of support/resistance. Get successful at this and then you can move on or you can continue doing this and load up on your $/pip value. This should only be done after you have a proven , consistent equity growth (yield curve in pizza lingo).

""The signals on the daily seem more reliable"" - This shows you have not READ and UNDERSTOOD! Go back and read my posts on time frames and the higher order of time frames - the higher (longer) the time frame, the more reliable and accurate are the technicals.

""but it looks like they still need managing!"" - WOW! Did you just fall off the top of a Christmas Tree? ALL TRADES NEED MANAGING within your PLAN.

Right, so what you have done is read the manual, got behind the wheel of an F1 racing car and wondered why you've written it off at the first bend!

Repeating myself again, this is a step by step process with NO shortcuts. That's why I called it The Path of Learning - take one step at a time.

You have proved to yourself that you are not as good as you thought you were - congratulations - we have all been there. If you want to be successful at this you must have PATIENCE and DISCIPLINE, qualities which you did not exhibit.

These are very valuable lessons for you so learn from them and do not repeat them. Back to the beginning of The Path and make sure you READ and UNDERSTAND every post, ask questions if you don't. When all is understood, start posting your analysis of trading opportunities and comment on other posts.

Accept you have been beaten then let it go and start with a clean sheet. Above all, respect the time it takes to learn to do this properly - it does not happen over night. The markets will still be here no matter how long it takes.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,635
  • Edited 4:47pm Jun 8, 2009 4:08pm | Edited 4:47pm
So, would anyone like to head to South Africa (south of here) on the continued south bound express that is usdcad?

We have a bond hammer off the ascending TL and SR @ 1137 combined with the dly 20ema - and it's with the trend. I would like to place an order underneath the SR level for safety. What do fellow Path treaders think? I'm inclined to agree with PaddyHam, but there are risks!
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Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #3,636
  • Jun 8, 2009 4:12pm Jun 8, 2009 4:12pm
Quoting Grimweasel
So, would anyone like to head to South Africa (south of here) on the continued south bound express that is usdcad?

We have a bond hammer off the ascending TL and SR @ 1137 combined with the dly 20ema - and it's with the trend. I would like to place an order underneath the SR level for safety. What do fellow Path treaders think?
It's also off a 50% Fib from the most recent swing high GW (18th May).
  • #3,637
  • Jun 8, 2009 4:14pm Jun 8, 2009 4:14pm
Unsure on cable today so will be leaving alone -
The boss has a shooting star and today has a hammer (of sorts) but $ weakness prevails so one might want to take the dly hammer but risk and reason tell me not too, even though it's with the trend. The boss S/Star wins I believe. So, even though I like usdcad short I will not be taking cable long.

PS Cheers Aston Dan da Man - I forgot to add that!
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #3,638
  • Jun 8, 2009 4:22pm Jun 8, 2009 4:22pm
Quoting Grimweasel
Unsure on cable today so will be leaving alone -
The boss has a shooting star and today has a hammer (of sorts) but $ weakness prevails so one might want to take the dly hammer but risk and reason tell me not too, even though it's with the trend. The boss S/Star wins I believe. So, even though I like usdcad short I will not be taking cable long.

PS Cheers Aston Dan da Man - I forgot to add that!
I'm with you on Cable GW - conflicting PA and i can't for the life of me think of a long position when the UK political landscape is so shaky. All in all it's a little confusing to me so i'm staying out.
  • #3,639
  • Jun 8, 2009 4:23pm Jun 8, 2009 4:23pm
Quoting paddyham
Here is my thoughts on cable. Although the daily bar hasn't finished (which I would check again b4 putting on a trade).

Thoughts on graph - and around key 1.6 s/r.

Don't all attack me at once
“With trend (Boss, Big Boss)”
Seems to me like you need glasses – BOSS - do you see that BIG RED Shooting Star at resistance? – BIG BOSS - do you see that BIG RED Shooting Star at resistance?

“Good MM” – you need a new calculator! Your SL will be about 350 pips!

Yes, the daily is at support and resistance

Everything you said was “Bad” was correct.

While this MAY go to 1.6250ish, this is a HIGH RISK trade and not one that people learning on this thread should take.

I would rather wait while we get resolution of this top before getting my wallet out
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,640
  • Jun 8, 2009 4:33pm Jun 8, 2009 4:33pm
Quoting strat
“With trend (Boss, Big Boss)”
Seems to me like you need glasses – BOSS - do you see that BIG RED Shooting Star at resistance? –
Thanks Strat, Grim and Dan....re: cable

I do learn a lot more when I post graphs and people tell me where I am going wrong.

Thanks
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