james16 Chart Thread

Hi Fat_TOm,

I take it you are looking at the Cable(GBP/USD) daily chart? There is a very strong PPZ on the weekly that suggests we might see prices trade as low as 1.45 (if we are able to break this zone). There is also the weekly pin bar that should take us down to the 38.2 level, all things being equal...

I feel the market might just be pausing and might resume its next leg down soon.

MM

I'am in this trade now...

That's a nice chart Josh.
Interesting to see that stuff.
Many times people overlook the fact that consecutive losses are a reality and you need to be prepared for them from a MM perspective and psychologically too.

Tom

My short since last Friday has reached its first target. Can it go lower? Maybe, maybe not. I am taking profit here as this is a counter-trend trade :-)

Ken

Thank you for posting the chart Josh

I would like to make a post a few months later (not much time for me to post a long explanation atm) about trade psychology.

People need to understand that a trade has a probabilistic outcome. Meaning, even on an A+ setup a trade can go against you. You need to be psychologically ready to handle 12 consecutive losses which is different from how easy it sounds. I'm loving that chart. Oh and those consecutive losses will come after taking only your A+ setups. (Though again it varies from person to person so please don't kill me on this comment).

Happy trading.

stop out at BE.Leave computer for a rest now.

I have been doing this a while and I will never look at a chart to tell me what my losses will be, I have had over 40 winners in a row as well I dont see that chart Also how big are the losses, did you go tilt on the losses? Too much to take in to see what your "losses" will be. Just take good trades and dont think, Okay 6 losses I have to win the next one the chart says so!

I went in very heavily on Friday and closed the last 20 contracts at 1.382. I didn't want to wait through any pullback around that price zone. I feel it still has another leg to run though. Lets see.

MM

And this why I love Mark Douglas so much
He talks about the importance of consistency - you may have had 10 losses in a row, but you don't let that get to you, you have faith in your edge and you trade.

This was from a slightly different school of thought Bfd.

This is trading based off strong horizontal pivot levels/ppzs.

Won't go into the details cuz I don't want to digress from the main topic, but these are touch entries based on price hitting a ppz. The basic idea is to grab some pips off "The immediate bounce" which may or may not be sustained. rest is all trade/money/psychology management, where this initial idea can transform into a plan for 500 pips.

My exams recently have been interrupting my trading heavily so I've not been trading all that much atall. But during an active trading session I would have gone long Eu as it hit 1.38 (weekly/4h ppz) Shorts have nothing to worry cuz I've no damn idea if it's ready to go to the moon, but still worth 70 pips and if this continues on...we never know...

What we do here is not a system. It's a method. it can work on it's own and can make the dumbest of systems work like magic. It's still not the holy grail though...

Regards,
Ghous.

Hope you guys took the long in the gbpusd I mentioned earlier...

I took two positions and played the trade just like stated above. 55 pip profit on one position and then stopped out at BE on the other. I watching daily PA now for trades either way.

K.I.S.S.

Great call Shermenator! You'll probably get more long pips than I did going short.

K.I.S.S.

Aslong as we put pips in the bag and trade the plan ...we are on fire lol

I like that chart Josh and have used it myself.

The only caveat I add with thes figures is that sometimes we plot our previous live trades, demo trades, backtested trades or whatever against this formula and we come up with very precise figures regarding expectancy and the percentage of a certain drawdown and the percentage of a losing streak.

It's an incredibly useful tool and I use it a lot but I think it can give us a reassurance that can be misleading.

We are discretionary traders here. We don't trade moving average crossover systems, or anything with such a systematic trigger. We see, we evaluate and assess, and then we pull the trigger. Many of us have discretionary exit strategies too. Do we trail stops behind SR levels? Behind two bars? Or we just watch the action and see? Perhaps we have a fixed target system like yours.

We also have low frequency trading here. Sometimes 1-2 trades a month and even if we trade lower timeframes, often no more than 10 trades a month.

So my point is that these precise figures of expectancy are only useful if we remember just how discretionary our trading can be. They are a rough guide at best. Real results often fall outside the parameters of these results even in the most systematic and methodical systems but with a highly discretionary method like ours they are almost certain to. And with such a small trade sample as our method yields they can also be misleading. My discretionary trade selection will be very different in a year's time which may be only 50-100 trades down the line.

That is why I think psychology plays a much stronger part for us than most. We don't just have to deal with "get signal pull trigger". What if our bar evaluation radar goes off through fear, or perhaps we kill profits a little too early. All these things are going to affect the subtle mechanics of our trading.

As long as we accept that these things are organic and that trader discretion and small sample size will skew things inevitably, then I think the percentage formulas and expectancies are terrifically useful and I've got a lot from them. But I always remember to take with a pinch of salt the idea that for every dollar risked I make a 0.46 dollar return or whatever. Or that I have 17.62% chance of X losing trades.

I suppose it's just margin of error. And I allow in my statistical model for there to be a very big margin of error. So when evaluating results from these formulae I look for significant discrepancies and not minor ones.

None of this is to disagree with Josh, in fact i think he's on the same page as me with it. It's just to add to the conversation. Through reading the archive of this thread and PF there is more than one story of a promising trader who arrived, did well, and then got lost in tweaking mathematical formulae to deeper and deeper levels. And then vanished. Read the great novel that is the James16 chart thread and you will see a couple of these stories unfold.

(Actually that's another useful thing to watch if you're new and have been directed to read this thread from the start. It's not just about the price action info. It's about who "got it", what they did and asked, the pitfalls they went through, and also who didn't. It also helps to see that it wasn't that long ago that the masters were where you or I are today. There's a post I love, not on this thread, where Mikey asks for suggestions for reading matter. Someone says Market Wizards and Reminisces of a Stock Operator and he says "thanks I'll check them out". And the rest is history... )

Anyone can give me some hints on AUDUSD? Now AUDUSD is sitting at FIB 50. I still have many short positions around this area.

Man it is taking me FOREVER to catch up on all the missed posts!

But yes there are some great posts and you guys are all awesome!

Of course all the action happens when I am away, but kept enough tabs to catch the gbp/usd and still riding

Mike

Where did Mikey go?

sometimes that happens....

was out of town for my brothers graduation

Emails are going out fast now thanks to my iced coffee!

Aaron had some killer posts while I was gone