How many of Technical Analysis based systems are junk? | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Top 100 best Trading Systems: post good Trading Systems here 62 replies

Are the best systems also the systems that fail most spectacularly? 55 replies

Systems, Systems and Systems... 1 reply

So many systems!!! 9 replies

Attachments: How many of Technical Analysis based systems are junk?
Exit Attachments

How many of Technical Analysis based systems are junk?

  • #1
  • First Post: Apr 20, 2007 3:31pm Apr 20, 2007 3:31pm
I get tired of all the MA crossover + Awsome indicator + Alligator + blah blah blah....

Do any of you guys feel the same way?

Wading through 10,000 posts about systems that don't make squat.
  • #2
  • Apr 20, 2007 3:39pm Apr 20, 2007 3:39pm
Quoting tdion
I get tired of all the MA crossover + Awsome indicator + Alligator + blah blah blah....

Do any of you guys feel the same way?

Wading through 10,000 posts about systems that don't make squat.
check out the james16 stuff then, the fact is most people don't even understand the indicators they use, they just throw up a bunch that look good on past data
  • #3
  • Apr 20, 2007 4:25pm Apr 20, 2007 4:25pm
I myself wonder. I've been trading pretty naked lately, but maybe 10% I'd guess looks pretty good.
But in a lot of the threads people look like they leave and move on after one loss. Or they complain they're getting losses, when they're executing their systems during gigantic news events.
  • #4
  • Apr 20, 2007 4:31pm Apr 20, 2007 4:31pm
There's no fool-proof indicator good for everyone. Basically what they do is reduce noise and bring out patterns that are in some way consistent enough for individual users to employ. Because we are all different, some people will find various methods better or worse, dependent on their own ability, knowlege, and perception. Sort of like using a microscope, everyone has to adjust it to fit their own eyeballs
My only big concern is that most of the methods are somewhat out-dated (though if they work for people, great). Markets used to have the same types of traders on both sides of the fence, with the same skills; but now one side is dominated by big money employing "rocket scientists" to write very sophisticated analysis programs, which in turn changes the nature of the market itself. So I think there's a good deal of room to develop methods for the small trader better designed to match the market.
  • #5
  • Apr 20, 2007 6:32pm Apr 20, 2007 6:32pm
Quoting tdion
I get tired of all the MA crossover + Awsome indicator + Alligator + blah blah blah....

Do any of you guys feel the same way?

Wading through 10,000 posts about systems that don't make squat.
A guy by the name of Cesar in FF discovered a human indicator - that is what he said - It is real price action. He call this indicator Krit.mq4 . He gives out free signals using this indicator. The only pair he said will not work well with this indicator is Eur/Usd
  • #6
  • Apr 20, 2007 7:51pm Apr 20, 2007 7:51pm
Lmao nice one Hib!!!





Quoting highway3000
A guy by the name of Cesar in FF discovered a human indicator - that is what he said - It is real price action. He call this indicator Krit.mq4 . He gives out free signals using this indicator. The only pair he said will not work well with this indicator is Eur/Usd
  • #7
  • Apr 20, 2007 8:16pm Apr 20, 2007 8:16pm
Hey, i've seen a lot of indicators which offering "best" to entry timing, but a little of that can get out "exactly" from the market whenever it profit or loss. For entry u can use whatever u like such as MA, Alligator, PA, TL, EW, bla bla bla... whatever its fit to your personality than that is the best indicator for u but remember just for entry... yes just for entry.... Exit strategy is completely different from entry, its requires good money management system with "well trained" mentality which just can be trained if u discipline and stick to your money management rules. So, use whatever indicator for entry that suits to you then practice, practice, practice, practice, practice with the exit strategy. oh, this is my extra suggestion to all the trader here: "Practice to viewing the market from higher time frame, daily, weekly, monthly"
  • #8
  • Apr 21, 2007 6:38am Apr 21, 2007 6:38am
I agree, indicators are all utter and utter crap but...........

The people who profit alledegely using them, use them as a distraction without realising it and the distraction allows them to trade well, some how on there own.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #9
  • Apr 21, 2007 10:07am Apr 21, 2007 10:07am
Indicator lags. Only use some for filtering noises. Other than that, trend, Support/Resistance, and candle.
  • #10
  • Apr 21, 2007 10:41am Apr 21, 2007 10:41am
too many trigger happy people trading the forex and to fit that behavior with mathematical equations/indicators is just nonsense
  • #11
  • Apr 21, 2007 12:49pm Apr 21, 2007 12:49pm
Quoting tdion
I get tired of all the MA crossover + Awsome indicator + Alligator + blah blah blah....

Do any of you guys feel the same way?

Wading through 10,000 posts about systems that don't make squat.
You are completely correct, it's all s**t.
The market trends and we get ma cross systems, the market ranges and we get oscillator systems, repeat ad infinitum. The moderators seem quite prepared to promote this junk as well.
The breaking of a wave cannot explain the whole sea.
  • #12
  • Apr 21, 2007 1:04pm Apr 21, 2007 1:04pm
indicators are all crap maybe they'll "reflect" the ongoing trend in some easily visible form but they will do it LATE and they'll never tell if the move will continue or it's already exhausted and getting ready to reverse so basically it's a flip of a coin
  • #13
  • Apr 21, 2007 1:27pm Apr 21, 2007 1:27pm
Quoting Mina
indicators are all crap maybe they'll "reflect" the ongoing trend in some easily visible form but they will do it LATE and they'll never tell if the move will continue or it's already exhausted and getting ready to reverse so basically it's a flip of a coin
The indicators does not matter, only the trader matters... A good trading strategy handled by a morron will not give good results...

Give a Ferrari to a apprentice, he will run in the wall pretty quickly. Give it to Schumacher and see the difference


  • #14
  • Apr 21, 2007 2:13pm Apr 21, 2007 2:13pm
Quoting tdion
I get tired of all the MA crossover + Awsome indicator + Alligator + blah blah blah....

Do any of you guys feel the same way?

Wading through 10,000 posts about systems that don't make squat.
Yeah. Indicators are just that, indications. They aren't predictions. EMAs are the most useful because they indicate the most recent trend, and you can use them as moving support. Even stuff like stochastics, MACD, CCI have their uses, but as I have become a more experienced trader I have found myself relying on them less and less. Price is price. If the pair is obviously going up, I am buying even if the 45-8-14 full stochastic contradicts the MACD(31,13,33).
  • #15
  • Apr 21, 2007 3:49pm Apr 21, 2007 3:49pm
It seems like every month there is a new thread discussing how poor indicators are. Indicators have their place. If you are looking for an indicator that will tell you what the market will do ... you will never find one. Period. MA crosses for example can give 10 bad signals in a row, then after that people will say it works because it "caught" the 300 pip move. This is just the nature of that indicator, the key is being able to trade your way out of the bad 10 and maximize the 300 pip trend. Indicators don't make price do anything, they are completely reactionary.

Indicators should be used to help to find when an entry or an exit may be more appropriate. That is how I think they should be used. People that are not very discplined will benefit from using indicators, as they can write out trading guidelines as to what they should do when certain PA is occuring around them. As for myself, my losses will never be greater than XX, this is because if discretion doesn't kick in and get me out of the trade already ... the indicator according to my rules will force me out of the trade.

The entire discussion is pretty old. Most systems will not work unless discretion and experience is applied. The indicators I use if followed 100% as a system would be about 40/60 monetary % if left entirely on its own. If anyone has an indicator system that is profitable over the long haul just from blind following ... and I mean BLIND FOLLOWING. Zero discretion, just simple set it and forget it ... I am still keeping my eyes open for it.
The market is my nation. Traders, my family. Hello, brothers and sisters!
  • #16
  • Apr 21, 2007 4:09pm Apr 21, 2007 4:09pm
There is defenedly bad indicators but there is allso brilliant ones.

meany times i bump on information of inciators. when indicator do this do that. The main idea has been forgotten. The main focus. What is exacly happening in the market in that current moment. if indicator shows only buy or sell signal, thats horrible. Indicator shoud confirm more precises way of how market pressure moves in that time. And to confirm that movement in chard. so as both ways chard confirms the movements of the indicator and vice versa. to receave all the information available in that moment.

and as in indicator . my Technical observations are based on RSI 9. Maniac tool of chaos in my angel of view.


Take it easy
Mother
  • #17
  • Apr 21, 2007 4:48pm Apr 21, 2007 4:48pm
Personally I wonder if Ind's are being slammed because it seems the "In" thing to do or of they are being discarded due to an in depth study of How they are calculated?

Question {Trying to Move Forward} Do you have any proof that a specific Indicator does not work?

On second thought, this should probably be a New Thread.
  • #18
  • Apr 21, 2007 5:08pm Apr 21, 2007 5:08pm
Simple proof of an indicator working would be a back tested system based on it, over a really long time span (that could be a 1 to dozens of years depending on what time frame the system operates in) I doubt there is one, or a combination.

Another observation, when someone adds loads of indicators to their charts, it becomes so complicated that reading the indicators/signals becomes a sort of an art form as well, why not just go back to the root, and read the market?

Don't forget, 10-20 years ago almost nobody used TA. People still lost and made money in very similar ways. TA is new hype idea imho.

Best regards,

Vlad
  • #19
  • Apr 21, 2007 5:09pm Apr 21, 2007 5:09pm
Quoting Bemac
or of they are being discarded due to an in depth study of How they are calculated?
exelent subject. there is really deeper theorys behind the calculations. As working in dimension of space and time confirmed by indicators behavour.

and as indicators all the information is gathered from same data. only variations of twisting it changes.
  • #20
  • Apr 21, 2007 5:13pm Apr 21, 2007 5:13pm
Quoting zek132
Don't forget, 10-20 years ago almost nobody used TA. People still lost and made money in very similar ways. TA is new hype idea imho.
indeed! only a fool whoud ignore the economic news. but combining it with tehcnical analysis. News can confirm possibility to some evet to happen or fail. But never the less tehnical part is in there. as market crash downs have withnessed.
0 traders viewing now