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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #32,521
  • Jun 6, 2009 4:46pm Jun 6, 2009 4:46pm
Quoting the novice
I would appreciate if anyone could enlighten me where these trades have gone wrong.

Thanks in advance.
If you would trade according rules you would never have lost a dime, because you wouldn't have a

ENTRY triggerd

other than that I see a tradeable BUOB but not a PB

if I am wrong, please correct me. I am learning too!

mea
  • #32,522
  • Jun 6, 2009 4:50pm Jun 6, 2009 4:50pm
Quoting TiaForex
It's not just a question of what is most profitable. In fact it's largely an issue of psychology and account size. Jim tends to get his stop very very quickly to break even and take some off the table at first target. It may not be the most profitable strategy but it's the most comfortable for him and he has a large account size and so a few pips means a lot to him. Jim can't stand too much drawdown so he kills his trades early as well.

The bottom line is, we are not machines. If you're not comfortable with your profit taking strategy you will...
Another great post Aaron. Just goes to show that there is many ways to skin a cat. When the cat is high quality, A++, PA setup makes all of what you said a whole lot easier and simple.

I have taken "partial losses" or scaled out of a trade, again managing risk. This usually is when I'm indifferent about the quality of a given setup. It doesn't happen often.

Thanks,

Jim
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #32,523
  • Jun 6, 2009 4:52pm Jun 6, 2009 4:52pm
Quoting fxprocessor
I may be going against the general consensus here but I'm not taking the weekly cable pin.

Two reasons:

1. I don't want to trade into the 1.6500 round number.

2. As this is a weekly pin I would potentially have to hold it for a while. Looking at the monthly chart I see a strong bullish bar and this is only one timeframe above the one I would be trading on.

This is my thought process on this one anyway :-)
If your risk is good and the trade looks good take it, you are like I was a LONG time ago talking myself outa trades I will tell you I am short both the eur and gbp and will hold them for upto 30 days if I need to and they keep looking good. I will say I screwed up on the eur/jpy and I will close that out Monday...
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #32,524
  • Jun 6, 2009 5:21pm Jun 6, 2009 5:21pm
Quoting mea
If you would trade according rules you would never have lost a dime, because you wouldn't have a

ENTRY triggerd

other than that I see a tradeable BUOB but not a PB

if I am wrong, please correct me. I am learning too!

mea
Yes, you got it mea. But I'm sure you meant to say BEarish Ouside Bar, not BUllish Outside Bar.

Nice setup, BEOB at a swing High and a break below the 135.00 (support) could have turned into resistence, but waiting for the break saves the day again. As James16 says, "It always will".

Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #32,525
  • Jun 6, 2009 5:25pm Jun 6, 2009 5:25pm
Quoting jarroo
"trade into the 1.6500 round number". Do you mean the 1.6000 round number? Am I missing something.
Ha ha oops.... I live in a busy house mate. Always someone talking to me while I type.

I will edit the post.
  • #32,526
  • Jun 6, 2009 6:19pm Jun 6, 2009 6:19pm
The end of the last week has brought in tons of a price action so longing for.
I was tempted to take almost an every trade setup, but then again MM rules and I've put my bloody greed aside (althought I'm still on some of them). Let's be honest GBP/USD was my first bet (partial profit taken rest of the trade is now running risk free ) and so much has been said about it so I won't elaborate on it more.
But another trade is AUS/USD.
The reason to take it is a BEOB of the 365 MA and a weekly S/R zone 0.8100-0.8150 (confluence) plus the weekly PA of course.
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Now to the trade management. It's already triggered on the bar break. First profit to be taken at 0.7700 (almost 200 pips away), then move the S/L to a break even and see what happens next.
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However I have a major reservation about this trade from fundamental point of view. Gold wants to push to 1000$, oil price can't die as well so it may support Aussie and trigger my S/L. Bet on the rightly battered UK government and a short GBP is a nice, fat deal. Downunder they'r managing their bussinesses much better. I wonder what's your take on it ?
  • #32,527
  • Jun 6, 2009 6:33pm Jun 6, 2009 6:33pm
Quoting pakiestra
The end of the last week has brought in tons of a price action so longing for.
I was tempted to take almost an every trade setup, but then again MM rules and I've put my bloody greed aside (althought I'm still on some of them). Let's be honest GBP/USD was my first bet (partial profit taken rest of the trade is now running risk free ) and so much has been said about it so I won't elaborate on it more.
But another trade is AUS/USD.
The reason to take it is a BEOB of the 365 MA and a weekly S/R zone 0.8100-0.8150 (confluence) plus...

I'm not a fundies trader. I'm still honing my technical skills but I'll tell you that the weekly chart is also indicating short in the very near term.

K.I.S.S.
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  • #32,528
  • Jun 6, 2009 7:11pm Jun 6, 2009 7:11pm
Quoting fxprocessor
I may be going against the general consensus here but I'm not taking the weekly cable pin.

Two reasons:

1. I don't want to trade into the 1.6000 round number.

2. As this is a weekly pin I would potentially have to hold it for a while. Looking at the monthly chart I see a strong bullish bar and this is only one timeframe above the one I would be trading on.

This is my thought process on this one anyway :-)
I'd like to take this opportunity to show and tell you why I don't think that it gets very much better than this trade opportunity that we see presented on Cable. Also, please do not take this as advice that you should be in this trade, I am only presenting my p.o.v. in the interest of furthering our education here on James16. First thing I see is a weekly pin formed well with solid rejection of price above and a close below a BIG round number 1.60. The price was also repelled from the 61.8% Fib level that is drawn from the last major swing high down to the last major swing low. I show this on my chart. If the close at 1.5939 is broken short it is highly probable that it will traverse relatively unopposed to 1.5721 area (the most obvious bar high in our way). My ultimate target would be the 1.5350 area. Mucho profit potential in this trade IMHO. The other scenario I see is that if it breaks 1.5939 with little momentum, we could witness a retest of the 1.60 area before heading back short. I will only add to my already short position on this trade if we manage to break short of this weekly pin. Could you help me understand what you mean by trading into the 1.60 round number? This pair closed below it. Thanks for posting and we'll see how the market moves on this one. It's not about being right or wrong here. It's about helping each other out. I look forward to your posting.

K.I.S.S.
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  • #32,529
  • Jun 6, 2009 7:17pm Jun 6, 2009 7:17pm
Quoting KissFan
I'm not a fundies trader. I'm still honing my technical skills but I'll tell you that the weekly chart is also indicating short in the very near term.

K.I.S.S.
Thank You KissFan for your answer, that's re-assuring. I want to hold this baby as long as I can.
BTW are you using Gartley's patterns in your analysis ?
I was always trying to find something more on this secret weapon (heard from one of my Mates who is using that all the time on a different time frames with a lot of success). If you don't mind I would love to find something more about it. If it's strongly off topic please PM me as I don't want to mess up sir James's thread.
Greetings
  • #32,530
  • Jun 6, 2009 7:32pm Jun 6, 2009 7:32pm
Quoting pakiestra
Thank You KissFan for your answer, that's re-assuring. I want to hold this baby as long as I can.
BTW are you using Gartley's patterns in your analysis ?
I was always trying to find something more on this secret weapon (heard from one of my Mates who is using that all the time on a different time frames with a lot of success). If you don't mind I would love to find something more about it. If it's strongly off topic please PM me as I don't want to mess up sir James's thread.
Greetings
I have found myself with little to do this weekend. It's been nice to just read and have some quiet time so no problem. You can google "Gartley Trading" and get all the info you would ever need. If you have any specific questions I don't mind trying to answer them. I use the dynamic fibs for confluence. The pattern is a strong indication of reversal so I watch for PA when I see the pattern emerge. The pattern is not a holy grail, just a tool.

K.I.S.S.
  • #32,531
  • Jun 6, 2009 8:31pm Jun 6, 2009 8:31pm
Quoting KissFan
I'll be watching this pair for reversal very carefully this week as it is approaching a strong PPZ. USDJPY has also reached major fib retracement levels. If we get the necessary price action for a short trade, I'll be looking for price to traverse back down to the 150ema. Here are a couple of charts.

K.I.S.S.
You and me both will be watching, I had a freetrade I worked hard to setup I posted last week with a s/l that I thought would be enough room to wiggle but got stopped out. I am still bearish but if 99 level gets swallowed up its back to the drawing board for me.Dont want to marry a bias going to step back and let this shake its self out maybe I was too earlyhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon5.gif
  • #32,532
  • Jun 6, 2009 9:24pm Jun 6, 2009 9:24pm
Quoting KissFan
I'd like to take this opportunity to show and tell you why I don't think that it gets very much better than this trade opportunity that we see presented on Cable....
Hi Kiss
I would be interested in knowing how you would be managing this trade?, because I am sure that you would not have a stop loss at the top of the PB, that would be app. 750 pips. and if you enter on the break of the PB, you would be trading right into 1.5900 area, but I am not sure if that would be a concern since this is a trade of the weekly?.
Another point to me is that the price closed right at the first PPZ, or as Jim would say "exactly where we thought it would go" even thou it closed below 1.6000,I think it is quite likely that we could see a bounce back above that level, because the price is at a support level.
Of course there are many different ways to trade these setups, but the way I am looking at this potential trade is to wait for a breakout and a retest of this PPZ area, and see if it will get me an opportunity to go short, that way I will be able to have a smaller stop loss and still have a very good profit potential.
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You got to know when to hold them, and know when to fold them.
  • #32,533
  • Jun 6, 2009 9:33pm Jun 6, 2009 9:33pm
Hey Sas, I posted a chart eariler on a way to trade this pin with a smaller s/l wait for a retrace in the 50 fib 1.6300 area nice pa for a short then put your s/l in 61.8 fib area 1.6385 and enjoy the ride just a thought.
  • #32,534
  • Jun 6, 2009 10:02pm Jun 6, 2009 10:02pm
Quoting KissFan
I'm not a fundies trader. I'm still honing my technical skills but I'll tell you that the weekly chart is also indicating short in the very near term.

K.I.S.S.
Hey Rog,
I see that double thick yellow line on the chart did a good job at stopping that price.

Man I learn something new from you everyday. Thank you

Just BS'n ..... nice trade.

MG
  • #32,535
  • Jun 6, 2009 10:19pm Jun 6, 2009 10:19pm
Quoting sas
Hi Kiss
I would be interested in knowing how you would be managing this trade?, because I am sure that you would not have a stop loss at the top of the PB, that would be app. 750 pips. and if you enter on the break of the PB, you would be trading right into 1.5900 area, but I am not sure if that would be a concern since this is a trade of the weekly?.
Another point to me is that the price closed right at the first PPZ, or as Jim would say "exactly where we thought it would go" even thou it closed below 1.6000,I think it is quite likely...
Hey SAS! If this pin breaks with good momentum I'll be in with an initial stop just above that 1.6113 area. I see a PPZ there. Once I'm in the trade 50 pips I'll likely trail from there by 75 or so until I get to first TP around 1.5738. I think that the way you stated is by far the safest way to play the trade. We will observe the best way to manage this one after it's over with. Best of trading to you!

K.I.S.S.
  • #32,536
  • Jun 7, 2009 2:42am Jun 7, 2009 2:42am
Quoting KissFan
Could you help me understand what you mean by trading into the 1.60 round number? This pair closed below it. Thanks for posting and we'll see how the market moves on this one .

K.I.S.S.
Thanks for your reply KissFan.

My bar closed at 1.5980. If I am looking at this from a weekly perspective this is pretty much on the round number.

I see these major areas as elastic support and resistance. I think there is good potential for buyers to come into the market at this key area and that 1.60 could prove to difficult to hold under.

The monthly bullish bar I highlighted in my last post is a major factor in this thought process.

The fact that I have just had an exceptional week also has me more cautious as I have over traded when too confident many times and as you know this is a journey to discover what works for us as an individual.

Quoting KissFan
It's not about being right or wrong here. It's about helping each other out. I look forward to your posting.

K.I.S.S.
Well said. I think there are many reasons why it could work out and I hope you profit from it.

cheers

FXP
  • #32,537
  • Jun 7, 2009 4:25am Jun 7, 2009 4:25am
Quote
TiaForex . . .It's not just a question of what is most profitable. In fact it's largely an issue of psychology and account size. Jim tends to get his stop very very quickly to break even and take some off the table at first target. It may not be the most profitable strategy but it's the most comfortable for him and he has a large account size and so a few pips means a lot to him. Jim can't stand too much drawdown so he kills his trades early as well.

Outstanding post Tia - one of the best I have read here. Thanks so much for taking the time.
  • #32,538
  • Jun 7, 2009 5:01am Jun 7, 2009 5:01am
Really not that far fetched its the retrace of last months bar.
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  • #32,539
  • Jun 7, 2009 5:19am Jun 7, 2009 5:19am
Just wonder if its up for a retest of longterm tl and fib would make for a sweet short
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  • #32,540
  • Jun 7, 2009 6:31am Jun 7, 2009 6:31am
Quoting mea
Hello
when I am in a winning trade I have a target where I take 50% off the table, go to BE let the second 50% run and if more profit has reached I take an other 50% off the table and let the last 1/3 ruLet trade run until your SL's be taken out but have a greater chance for a good runn may even move SL little closer.

I am wondering if there is anybody which did back testing which EXIT strategy is more profitable at the end.
I guess Jim did he does not like to tell us...?

Move to BE ASAP without 50% profit
Move to BE with 50% off table!
etc...
TiaForex summed it up very well. I answered a similar question over on CW's thread yesterday...
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=1849

Josh
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