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Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #8,001
  • Jun 6, 2009 10:02am Jun 6, 2009 10:02am
Hi Angler,

Quoting Angler
Pipped.......what is your plan B...if your wrong..and the price continues trending UP....
Actually, that's probably the ideal scenario - my trades stand a better chance of running longer if it continues to rise. I'm still only taking 4H trades at dips, with the uptrend, as usual. If there's a set-up I'll take it. No plan B.

Quoting Angler
If you also think that based on the weekly....price may come down.....you dont know how far....but your still ready to go long...not to far away...
No, I don't think it'll go too far. I'm looking at the 50Fib area on the daily @ 1.3600 (perhaps even the 50Fib @ 1.3400 drawn from the March low to the recent high on the weekly, although this is unlikely I feel) for resumption of uptrend.

However, it doesn't really matter if I'm right. All the time the 4H is still up over 300 bars, I'll be going long at the dips...rules are rules. If trend switches on this time-frame, so will I. Sooner or later, when the other time-frames agree, trades will hopefully run longer, that's all.

Is that what you were asking?

Quoting Angler
Mind you I think the weekly is in an up trend..but meeting resistance right now..I dont think you can use the 300 bar idea on a weekly timeframe....way to much movement has occurred the last year of so...
I totally agree with you; actually, even over those 300 bars the weekly trend is up, whether we think the long-term gives a valid indication or not. As I said, I don't think we're in for a heavy drop (mid 1.3s at most), more a correction and certainly no new lows. I took a quick look at the monthly (see chart) which is also up and shows the recent 1.2400 is near the Fib50 and at an area of major S/R. In my opinion, it's all bullish!

Sorry for the lengthy post.
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  • #8,002
  • Jun 6, 2009 12:21pm Jun 6, 2009 12:21pm
Quoting Liger86
last few posts confuse me silly and begs to ask a question on how to properly draw a trend line just to make sure you're looking at what everyone else is looking.

Also, drawing trend lines on weekly, monthly is a bit silly imo, too much news in one week that makes it go crazy, I would opt for candlestick formations on anything larger then 1day frame.

I'm about 75% sure that daily support trend line is broken.

Possible closest support on daily would be 1.3782 so what I will look for when this level is reached is possible divergence on 4hr for...
Hi,

Jacko's advice to me not so long ago was to select a time-frame, 300 bar chart, then join up highs with an upper TL and lows with a lower TL....simple as that!

Don't agonise over it too much - you can see the trend over the 300 bars at a glance. I think that's all it's really telling you. If trend isn't immediately obvious, it's probably ranging, so trendlines are useful for identifying channels within this. The Fib50 and S/R are far more important in my experience though.
  • #8,003
  • Jun 6, 2009 4:26pm Jun 6, 2009 4:26pm
http://i43.tinypic.com/rkdn9s.png
  • #8,004
  • Jun 6, 2009 8:23pm Jun 6, 2009 8:23pm
Quoting mongreldog66
It is going down. I reckon 1.4000 is a big arse round number with a target on its back.
When jacko says 1.4000 is a target, you know its going to be hit.
  • #8,005
  • Jun 6, 2009 9:47pm Jun 6, 2009 9:47pm
Think its gonna touch 20ma on daily?
ok Friendo? This is madness!?!? - THIS, IS, FOREX!!!
  • #8,006
  • Jun 7, 2009 12:39am Jun 7, 2009 12:39am
Quoting Pipped
The Fib50 and S/R are far more important in my experience though.
Right you are. And S+R levels are more important than the 50% Fib.
  • #8,007
  • Jun 7, 2009 12:39am Jun 7, 2009 12:39am
Quoting Liger86
Think its gonna touch 20ma on daily?
What do you think, Liger?
  • #8,008
  • Jun 7, 2009 12:50am Jun 7, 2009 12:50am
Yes it will, I bet you a burger!

Well, eventually.
ok Friendo? This is madness!?!? - THIS, IS, FOREX!!!
  • #8,009
  • Jun 7, 2009 12:55am Jun 7, 2009 12:55am
Pipped, it looks to me you've drawn a channel on your chart in #8002. Was this your intent?
  • #8,010
  • Jun 7, 2009 12:57am Jun 7, 2009 12:57am
Good, Liger! Way to be decisive.
  • #8,011
  • Jun 7, 2009 2:58am Jun 7, 2009 2:58am
I love this stragety, the only thing, especially for newbie or underfunded traders, is that there could be a huge drawdown before targets are hit. I know fundamentals arent really played much in this system but at the same time, the dollar is is gaining massive strength after the FNP reports this last week. I am still long on the dollar based on this strategy but still down about 400 points, maybe 1000 come the close at 3:00 EST on monday. Im confident in the trend so I will accept the drawback. We just have to decide whether the bulls or bears will win. the NFP gave unexpected strength to the USD and killed all my trades for the moment. Many think the NFP statements mean the recession is over, but I beg to differ, Long on the USD for any pair is still the way to go... When is the only question.
  • #8,012
  • Jun 7, 2009 5:00am Jun 7, 2009 5:00am
These articles will give a clearer insight into what is really taking place in the USA and world economy:

"Quarterly $1 Trillion Monetization" -- to warn that the USFed
primary bond dealers are under great distress, as bond demand
is growing amidst staggering supply growth, creating a Black
Hole, as USGovt tax revenues decline sharply, so the USFed &
Dept Treasury must print $1 trillion in USTBonds every quarter
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/willie/2009/0602.html (http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/willie/2009/0602.html)

"Hitmen Contracts To Bust COMEX" -- to warn of hired parties
to kill the US$-Gold corrupted COMEX link that controls the
US financial structure, whose preliminary work is well underway
with gold bullion removal, as the creditors have had just about
enough of the despicable US-UK bank nazis.. defaults cometh!
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/willie/willie052809.html (http://www.321gold.com/editorials/willie/willie052809.html)

"Loud Paradigm Shift Rumblings" -- to herald a grand global
shift that will dethrone the US$, take power from corrupt US-UK
bankers and put it with the Creditor group led by China, Arabs,
and others, signaled by recent UAE rejections of Saudis, while
the Abu Dhabi financiers court Russia for a New Alliance instead
http://www.kitco.com/ind/willie/may222009.html (http://www.kitco.com/ind/willie/may222009.html)
http://www.contraryinvestorscafe.com/broadcast.php?media=245

"Trampled Green Shoots" -- to discredit the nonsense from the
financial networks and USGovt about economic recovery, when
the actual data, including forward indicators, looks more like a
gradual move toward depression, as green shoots are trampled
by people onto jobless claims office and from home foreclosures
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldenJackass/1242333710.php (http://news.goldseek.com/GoldenJackass/1242333710.php)
http://www.contraryinvestorscafe.com/broadcast.php?media=223
  • #8,013
  • Jun 7, 2009 12:56pm Jun 7, 2009 12:56pm
http://i41.tinypic.com/2q8aa12.png
  • #8,014
  • Jun 7, 2009 1:56pm Jun 7, 2009 1:56pm
who ever trades like jacko will sure get good benefit i know it.coz its my personal experience trading in stocks few years back.

but this strategy are for those who holds big accounts and those who can hold there position for longer time.

i agree with jacko when he says "old age" Experience.this strategy is really for mature and patience traders.

best of luck to all and really thanx to jacko for sharing his life Experience.it really helps a lot to many of us.
  • #8,015
  • Jun 7, 2009 10:13pm Jun 7, 2009 10:13pm
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P5yxFtTwDcc
  • #8,016
  • Jun 8, 2009 1:17am Jun 8, 2009 1:17am
New week, new chart, new opportunities.

Price hit the 4H trendline so went long, earlier with a 50pip hard stop and 100 pip TSL.

Price is stalling around the 1.4000 round number so we need a push through. First area of potential resistance is 1.4049.

There has been a lot of talk over the weekend of a bottom being reached for the USD and that the recent sell off was over-extended...with the lack of economic news indicators today I'll be watching the trade closely, especially at London open for a sign of a change in sentiment.
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  • #8,017
  • Jun 8, 2009 2:44am Jun 8, 2009 2:44am
As I feared, London has taken the price down and the 4H trendline has been broken to the downside. My stop loss has been hit (1.3900) for a loss of 45 pips.

Now waiting on the sidelines to see where the price goes and whether this a trend reversal or a deeper retracement. The 50% Fib is at 1.3880 and further down resistance at 1.3793 and a 1.3735.

Personally I think we have reached a short term Euro top and my bias would be to look for a short trade once we have seen a retracement from wherever this move exhausts itself (preferably back up to the 4H trendline)...but overall I am just waiting to see what happens...
  • #8,018
  • Jun 8, 2009 2:46am Jun 8, 2009 2:46am
damn screwed on that trade . Lost 55 pips
  • #8,019
  • Jun 8, 2009 3:45am Jun 8, 2009 3:45am
Quoting lovejoy80
As I feared, London has taken the price down and the 4H trendline has been broken to the downside. My stop loss has been hit (1.3900) for a loss of 45 pips.

Now waiting on the sidelines to see where the price goes and whether this a trend reversal or a deeper retracement. The 50% Fib is at 1.3880 and further down resistance at 1.3793 and a 1.3735.

Personally I think we have reached a short term Euro top and my bias would be to look for a short trade once we have seen a retracement from wherever this move exhausts itself (preferably back up to...
are you going to do a-h? It went down to 1.3853 not the full 50 pips but only off by 2 pips so do you enter it in anyways?
  • #8,020
  • Jun 8, 2009 4:30am Jun 8, 2009 4:30am
I will enter into an AH trade if it goes 50 pips past my stop loss, which as you pointed out it hasn't yet as it it 2 pips shy. however, I will watch the trade closely to see how the price reates to the 4H trendline it just broke as this could obviously prove to be resistance.

The direction of the trend is slightly unclear at the moment due to the breaking of the trendline - it could just mean a deeper retracement or it could mean a trend reversal or some period of sideways movement...only time will tell.

The only news I can see (from a quick look) is about a currency crisis in Latvia
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