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Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #7,981
  • Edited 7:29pm Jun 5, 2009 7:01pm | Edited 7:29pm
hi all....


markmm...thats what I was talking about in a previous post....Trends within trends...

Your looking at the Trend later in the longer term trend...

If you draw the trend from the start of the move up.....the price is still in a strong rising trend....

Just depends how you draw your trendlines.
  • #7,982
  • Jun 5, 2009 7:03pm Jun 5, 2009 7:03pm
Quoting Angler
hi all....


markmm...thats what I was talking about in a previous post....Trends withing trends...

Your looking at the Trend later in the longer term trend...

If you draw the trend from the start of the move up.....the price is still in a strong rising trend....

Just depends how you draw your trendlines.
Demark, look it up.
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #7,983
  • Jun 5, 2009 7:26pm Jun 5, 2009 7:26pm
Hi all....


yeah well...I was going to reply to your first comment but decided not to....as I was not going to be very nice about it....


Demark as far as I know is something to do with Internal Trendlines....getting short term breaks.....NOT the longer term trends..

I would like to hear other opinions on this. as it is a major part of Jacko's method...
  • #7,984
  • Jun 5, 2009 7:29pm Jun 5, 2009 7:29pm
Quoting Angler
Hi all....


yeah well...I was going to reply to your first comment but decided not to....as I was not going to be very nice about it....


Demark as far as I know is something to do with Internal Trendlines....getting short term breaks.....NOT the longer term trends..

I would like to hear other opinions on this. as it is a major part of Jacko's method...
Im just trying to help you. If you draw trend lines properly then you will catch the moves.
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #7,985
  • Jun 5, 2009 7:35pm Jun 5, 2009 7:35pm
Hi all...


Ok ...I dont have an issue with that or Demark for that matter....


But use the example.......you have a trendline drawn.....if you use Demarks idea...and we get next week...higher lowers in the next 2 days....where is your trendline then..
  • #7,986
  • Jun 5, 2009 7:38pm Jun 5, 2009 7:38pm
Quoting Angler
Hi all...


Ok ...I dont have an issue with that or Demark for that matter....


But use the example.......you have a trendline drawn.....if you use Demarks idea...and we get next week...higher lowers in the next 2 days....where is your trendline then..
Good point, the low today becomes the new trend line first point. I think Monday or Tuesday will decide on this one.
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #7,987
  • Jun 5, 2009 7:57pm Jun 5, 2009 7:57pm
Hi all...


My other point in using demark...is that ( in this case ) your trend is being determine by only something like 11 bars (daily ) if by chance we get those 2 rising low days at the start of next week.....to me that is a very short sample...
  • #7,988
  • Jun 5, 2009 8:28pm Jun 5, 2009 8:28pm
I remember Jacko saying that trading is a thinking man's game. Well, here's my shot at explaining what I see and what I'll be looking for next week:

(Please bear in mind I trade 4H. Also note, this isn't advice! I'm in no position to offer such a thing....just thinking out loud )

The 4H is in an uptrend, but currently retracing. I'm looking to place my buy order at the Fib/lower channel line @ 1.3900, but not before price moves through it; I think it could even go as low as 1.3800 first. I don't think a rally will much exceed 1.4050 S/R and I believe there could be more drops ahead, so I'll be trailing all of my trades quite closely.

Glancing at the Daily and Weekly, it's clear that we're at a significant level:

The Weekly is at the long-standing Fib50 and meeting resistance, so a further fall is quite likely.

The Daily is retracing - Fib50 is @ 1.3600, so this may be a good level to look for a return of upward momentum.

In other words, until the higher time-frames complete their moves, I'll be tightening my TSL for 4H. Once they have it's up, up, up again....
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  • #7,989
  • Jun 5, 2009 8:59pm Jun 5, 2009 8:59pm
Hi all..


Pipped.......what is your plan B...if your wrong..and the price continues trending UP....

If you also think that based on the weekly....price may come down.....you dont know how far....but your still ready to go long...not to far away...

Mind you I think the weekly is in an up trend..but meeting resistance right now..I dont think you can use the 300 bar idea on a weekly timeframe....way to much movement has occurred the last year of so...
  • #7,990
  • Jun 5, 2009 11:32pm Jun 5, 2009 11:32pm
Quoting Jpnek
Hi there, CyberCore,

Just one final comment. Once you plan your trade and trade the plan, stick to it. Better not mess with the S/L on the heat of the trade, 'cause although this time it saved the trade, you don't want to turn that into a habit that sooner or later will come back and bite you in the a$$. My 0.02 cents.

Cheers,
You are right, of course. But in the last weeks I have seen so many spikes wiping out S/L within a peak just to return, so I have changed my rules especially for times where important news are ahead and the anticipated direction of my trade is confirmed by other rules.

Of course I have defined 250 PIPs to be my maximum dynamic S/L... I trade my account like it was only 20% of the money I really deposited, so 5% risk is totally acceptable for me personally.

I was kicked out of these CT trades several times in the last weeks. "Staying on the side line" is really a good position, if you are not sure, but since one is already in a trade (for more than a day) when such news are coming up, I need rules to cope with this event...

I also have rules when NOT to increase S/L within news...
  • #7,991
  • Jun 6, 2009 12:31am Jun 6, 2009 12:31am
I have to agree with both pipped's and angler's comments.

We can find "reasons" for it to go either way.

Or it could just consolidate and range for a while before making up its mind.


I am the biggest loser when it comes to picking reversals, so I don't see any reason to try.
  • #7,992
  • Jun 6, 2009 12:36am Jun 6, 2009 12:36am
If these charts are clogging up the thread, please let me know and I'll remove them and reduce further usage.


http://i44.tinypic.com/mjmolh.png

http://i40.tinypic.com/2j4d4d2.png

http://i39.tinypic.com/nlbp1i.png

http://i41.tinypic.com/2w4bntj.png

http://i41.tinypic.com/34pasuv.png
  • #7,993
  • Jun 6, 2009 1:20am Jun 6, 2009 1:20am
last few posts confuse me silly and begs to ask a question on how to properly draw a trend line just to make sure you're looking at what everyone else is looking.

Also, drawing trend lines on weekly, monthly is a bit silly imo, too much news in one week that makes it go crazy, I would opt for candlestick formations on anything larger then 1day frame.

I'm about 75% sure that daily support trend line is broken.

Possible closest support on daily would be 1.3782 so what I will look for when this level is reached is possible divergence on 4hr for long entry. Maybe there will be overlapping pivot levels in around 1.3782 or a bit below that will intensify a long entry expecially on divergence...
ok Friendo? This is madness!?!? - THIS, IS, FOREX!!!
  • #7,994
  • Jun 6, 2009 2:03am Jun 6, 2009 2:03am
Many of the comments throughout today bring me back to my original questions from my post earlier this morning. I will post my general questions below once again in order to learn a few things from all of you.

My questions are this:

1. Is the up trend from the daily chart over today? If so, what is the confirmation?

2. Was it then truly an uptrend starting? Or simply another retracement on the larger timeframes? What confirmation is there?

3. That brings up another question for me: How do you tell the trend has actually ended? What confirmation do you use that it in fact has ended? I understand that the higher highs, lower lows stuff and that if a 5 year old draws a line one way than that is probably the trend. But what confirmation is there that the uptrend is over or that it never was an uptrend to begin with?

4. I am just curious to know what I can use from a technical aspect that things are reversing or never really did go the other direction. Any insight, charts or techniques?

5. How do you confirm the end of a trend? What is the technical confirmation that a trend has ended and reversed? There are many techniques on this that I have read. But what do Jacko's followers use?

I would really like to know what people are using to confirm the end or beginning of a trend.

Thanks for the help and info.
RCWSO
  • #7,995
  • Jun 6, 2009 2:34am Jun 6, 2009 2:34am
Quoting Rcwso

5. How do you confirm the end of a trend? What is the technical confirmation that a trend has ended and reversed? There are many techniques on this that I have read. But what do Jacko's followers use?

RCWSO

In my definition of trend reversal it goes like this:

Up/Down Trend > Consolidation > Up/Down Trend

There is always consolidation before reversal/resumption, unless its some crazy news.

Back to your question, there is no answer really. If on Monday it bolts up then there can't be a break.

Like Low said, there is a possible better looking trend line forming. Now if only it would rally again.
http://i41.tinypic.com/2w4bntj.png
ok Friendo? This is madness!?!? - THIS, IS, FOREX!!!
  • #7,996
  • Jun 6, 2009 2:37am Jun 6, 2009 2:37am
Quoting Pipped
I remember Jacko saying that trading is a thinking man's game....
Pipped,

I'm with you on this one. As you can see on my chart, I've been longing this market for the past month based on this H4 channel with relatively good results. According to "my timeframe" PA could go all the way down to .3880, (close to the lower wall of the channel) and on a bounce back I would place my buy limit at .3900. Plan B is, on Monday PA just bounces back from 3950 ish and North we go with a buy limit from .4000. This is by no means a trade advice to anyone as I could be totally wrong on this one...

Cheers,
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  • #7,997
  • Jun 6, 2009 2:50am Jun 6, 2009 2:50am
Quoting TheCyberCore
You are right, of course. But in the last weeks I have seen so many spikes wiping out S/L within a peak just to return, so I have changed my rules especially for times where important news are ahead and the anticipated direction of my trade is confirmed by other rules.

Of course I have defined 250 PIPs to be my maximum dynamic S/L... I trade my account like it was only 20% of the money I really deposited, so 5% risk is totally acceptable for me personally.

I was kicked out of these CT trades several times in the last weeks. "Staying on the...
Good for you, CyberCore. I remember Jacko saying that "a trader must be pragmatic and/or opportunistic to take advantage of unusual trading opportunities", I guess this was one of them for you.

Personally, I couldn't stand being kicked a few times out of counter trades (that would be a few hundred pips ), but as I said, that's just me.

BTW, how many pips did you score on this one?

Cheers,
  • #7,998
  • Edited 4:32am Jun 6, 2009 3:56am | Edited 4:32am
Quoting Jpnek
Good for you, CyberCore. I remember Jacko saying that "a trader must be pragmatic and/or opportunistic to take advantage of unusual trading opportunities", I guess this was one of them for you.

Personally, I couldn't stand being kicked a few times out of counter trades (that would be a few hundred pips ), but as I said, that's just me.

BTW, how many pips did you score on this one?

Cheers,
I have always moved my S/L in the anticipated direction with the current candle, so I seldomly get a complete 100 PIP S/L. Anyway a few hundred PIPs are not killing me currently, because I am not working with such a high risk in my trades (I am just new to trading since 2 months). You know I have a family to support

If the things will (ever) calm down, I'll delete my additional freaky rules for "news trading". I closed it around 4000 for 140 PIPs just to have it closed before the weekend.

I ONLY USE THIS AS A LAST CHANCE OPTION, IF A TRADE DID NOT WORK OUT BEFORE THE NEWS ARE RELEASED. I am not a news trader!
  • #7,999
  • Jun 6, 2009 8:10am Jun 6, 2009 8:10am
Quoting Pipped
I don't want to contradict your 5-year-old, but looking at your daily chart the trend is down...the left of your chart is higher than the right. Over 300 bars it's getting close, but we aren't there just yet.

The 4-hour is a different matter - the channel you've drawn covers 300 bars on the smaller timeframe; left below right. Most definitely up!

If your 5-year-old was more timeframe specific then I'm sure we'd agree

this is why one never should listen to much at 5 year olds!
only if your not capable to understand that he/she is what he/she is

A 5 year old!
  • #8,000
  • Jun 6, 2009 9:06am Jun 6, 2009 9:06am
Quoting TheCyberCore
... Anyway a few hundred PIPs are not killing me currently, because I am not working with such a high risk in my trades (I am just new to trading since 2 months).
A few hundred pips certainly wouldn't kill my account either as I never risk more than 3% of my account at any given time. What I meant to say when I wrote that "I couldn't stand being kicked a few times out of counter trades (that would be a few hundred pips)" is that emotionally speaking I couldn't stand the feeling of knowing that no A-H trade will be there to save me in case my trade goes wrong and I'm going against the trend...

Quoting TheCyberCore
You know I have a family to support
So do I. That's the reason I went from 20 to 30 trades per DAY a year ago to only 1 or 2 per WEEK now...

Quoting TheCyberCore
If the things will (ever) calm down, I'll delete my additional freaky rules for "news trading".
That would certainly help in the long term...

Quoting TheCyberCore
I closed it around 4000 for 140 PIPs just to have it closed before the weekend.
Congrats

Cheers,
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