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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #32,441
  • Jun 5, 2009 3:43pm Jun 5, 2009 3:43pm
Quoting timf1979
hi guys! after a lot of reading through the posts and my own setup and analisys i managed to enter 2 trades last night, one on eur/usd and another on usd/cad. maybe beginers luck...but managed to enter playing s/r suports plus bar analisys on daily TF. right now i'm +217pips on eur/usd and +208 on usd/cad.... i attatched my charts... what you guys think of it?
TBLHC (Triple Bar Low Higher Close) on the Cad at a swing low with a retrace to the previous bar high. Very nice.

and 2 Day PB at a swing High (I caught this one as well.)
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #32,442
  • Jun 5, 2009 3:50pm Jun 5, 2009 3:50pm
Okay 3 trades I am in,

EUR/USD - Winning 3 positions open
GBP/USD - Winning 3 positions open
EUR/JPY - Losing 3 positions open

The winners I do not care about it at all, I will trail stop them out, Now this loser is the problem, and yes I know all too well I am going to have losers and I dont care about that. I do care if it's a loser and it runs wild..

I have attached a screen shot of it, I like RSI and know it well and I think it may run a little more up that pin then sell off but I need to have a plan if it keeps running. My stop is above that pin about 15 pips so I am okay from that side, on the 5min if I am wrong like now but I think it still looks good like this one with RSI I will just wait. What I think I am going to do is give it until Tuesday and kill it if I am still losing, if it starts to win I will trail it out some... Any thoughts?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpy.jpg Size: 109 KB
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #32,443
  • Jun 5, 2009 3:58pm Jun 5, 2009 3:58pm
One last thing on getting a quick 40-50 pips out of a 300 pip stop. On the 5min I would do 8pip stop with 24 gain most of the time, on this I dont see how you can pull down money if you are really running a 300 pip stop and taking 12% gain on the risk.

Here is a example: $1,000 a pip risk, 300 point stop thats 300k risk, now if I get +50 thats 50k oh nice good job ya ya ya.. Now here is where it gets ugly, doing good 3 wins 4 wins 5 wins, now a loss -300k. 5 wins 1 loss down 50k... Not sure how to manage the longer stuff yet that is why I am just throwing it out....
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #32,444
  • Jun 5, 2009 4:00pm Jun 5, 2009 4:00pm
Just part of the learning process but I would shy away from PA on lower than daily that was created during the time of news. Case in point, that pin on EJ. I assume that is what you are trading off of. I violated this rule (my rule)today as well with my trade on UJ 1 hr. I posted that trade on this thread. You may be more comfortable since you are very used to trading lower TF's. I had my reasons for taking that UJ trade this morning. I was wrong! I'd be interested to hear others opinions on my commentary here.

K.I.S.S.

Quoting Ryanmcd
Okay 3 trades I am in,

EUR/USD - Winning 3 positions open
GBP/USD - Winning 3 positions open
EUR/JPY - Losing 3 positions open

The winners I do not care about it at all, I will trail stop them out, Now this loser is the problem, and yes I know all too well I am going to have losers and I dont care about that. I do care if it's a loser and it runs wild..

I have attached a screen shot of it, I like RSI and know it well and I think it may run a little more up that pin then sell off but I need to have a plan if it keeps running. My stop is above...
  • #32,445
  • Jun 5, 2009 4:07pm Jun 5, 2009 4:07pm
Quoting jarroo
Absolutely.

I just noticed something on Jim's son chart. This should be fun.

Jim said out of the 9 Outside Bars (BUOB,BEOB) he only took 6 of them.

I wonder why he didn't take the other 3?

Does anybody know why?

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=32296

(Sorry I cant post charts right now)
Nice question.
From left to right the 3rd bar triggered after a week,the 4th is in traffic,the 5th and 6th are BEOB at swing lows.
So i wouldnt take 4 out of these 9 trades.
Only Jim's son can shed some light here
  • #32,446
  • Jun 5, 2009 4:08pm Jun 5, 2009 4:08pm
Quoting Ryanmcd
One last thing on getting a quick 40-50 pips out of a 300 pip stop. On the 5min I would do 8pip stop with 24 gain most of the time, on this I dont see how you can pull down money if you are really running a 300 pip stop and taking 12% gain on the risk.

Here is a example: $1,000 a pip risk, 300 point stop thats 300k risk, now if I get +50 thats 50k oh nice good job ya ya ya.. Now here is where it gets ugly, doing good 3 wins 4 wins 5 wins, now a loss -300k. 5 wins 1 loss down 50k... Not sure how to manage the longer stuff yet that is why I am just...
Ryan-

I see your observation exactly as you do. I am not near as experienced as yourself as an overall trader, but I'll offer this to you as what I hear all the time on this thread. Higher TF PA is more dependable information as to indicating price direction. That statement may start a debate/discussion here and that's fine with me I'd like to hear more on the subject from my peers. I would like to add that a "high probability" trade situation like a pin at swing high/low rarely retarces the majority of the distance after it breaks. Usually, if you see a pin form and then a bar next to it that covers most of the same ground, the price covered that ground before the break.

K.I.S.S.
  • #32,447
  • Jun 5, 2009 4:10pm Jun 5, 2009 4:10pm
Quoting KissFan
Just part of the learning process but I would shy away from PA on lower than daily that was created during the time of news. Case in point, that pin on EJ. I assume that is what you are trading off of. I violated this rule (my rule)today as well with my trade on UJ 1 hr. I posted that trade on this thread. You may be more comfortable since you are very used to trading lower TF's. I had my reasons for taking that UJ trade this morning. I was wrong! I'd be interested to hear others opinions on my commentary here.

K.I.S.S.

Ya NFP was huge today always is, I may have screwed up on that as well because the spreads get high and the retards jump in with high spreads and make the bar look huge.
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #32,448
  • Jun 5, 2009 4:11pm Jun 5, 2009 4:11pm
Quoting Ryanmcd
One last thing on getting a quick 40-50 pips out of a 300 pip stop. On the 5min I would do 8pip stop with 24 gain most of the time, on this I dont see how you can pull down money if you are really running a 300 pip stop and taking 12% gain on the risk.

Here is a example: $1,000 a pip risk, 300 point stop thats 300k risk, now if I get +50 thats 50k oh nice good job ya ya ya.. Now here is where it gets ugly, doing good 3 wins 4 wins 5 wins, now a loss -300k. 5 wins 1 loss down 50k... Not sure how to manage the longer stuff yet that is why I am just...
I agree Ryan, who risks 6 for 1? I personally try to stay away from anything close to those numbers. But, on 5 min you are talking about risking 1 for 3. What are you really trying to get at? I mean, I know you understand risk and all, but your example is crazy.
  • #32,449
  • Jun 5, 2009 4:13pm Jun 5, 2009 4:13pm
Quoting KissFan
Ryan-

I see your observation exactly as you do. I am not near as experienced as yourself as an overall trader, but I'll offer this to you as what I hear all the time on this thread. Higher TF PA is more dependable information as to indicating price direction. That statement may start a debate/discussion here and that's fine with me I'd like to hear more on the subject from my peers. I would like to add that a "high probability" trade situation like a pin at swing high/low rarely retarces the majority of the distance after it breaks. Usually,...

Yes, just like my 5min stuff doing IB bars, with a 8 pip stop I can NOT be wrong much or at least more then 50% lol. Then maybe a stop at the top of the pin is not the way to go because that really kills your 2% risk, as you know %2 of a 100 pip stop vs a 300 pip stop is HUGE. I may have to go back and see how often a pin fails at 1st then works out okay and how far it goes up. That is why I love the IB trades, very low risk with huge gains. Most IB's on the 4hr stuff are maybe 40-50 pips, get 150 make that 300% then win 50-50 and enjoy the money machine
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #32,450
  • Jun 5, 2009 4:14pm Jun 5, 2009 4:14pm
Quoting HipsterPipster
I agree Ryan, who risks 6 for 1? I personally try to stay away from anything close to those numbers. But, on 5 min you are talking about risking 1 for 3. What are you really trying to get at? I mean, I know you understand risk and all, but your example is crazy.

Maybe you read my 1 to 3 wrong, I run a 8 pip stop with a 24 gain, or a 7 with a 21 gain...
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #32,451
  • Jun 5, 2009 4:20pm Jun 5, 2009 4:20pm
Quoting Ryanmcd
Maybe you read my 1 to 3 wrong, I run a 8 pip stop with a 24 gain, or a 7 with a 21 gain...
I read it correct, risking 1 for 3 is the same as 8 for 24. But you were talking about risking 300 for 50 gain.....6 risk for 1 gain?
  • #32,452
  • Jun 5, 2009 4:25pm Jun 5, 2009 4:25pm
Quoting KissFan
If you are trading daily, you might also use some fib levels that overlap a 150ema/365ema or round number to watch carefully for a reversal....
Thanks KISS, I cant really watch trade though, until I get home from work, it would be daily. If I get it to BE, thats fine, Ill decide what to do end of each day.
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #32,453
  • Jun 5, 2009 4:29pm Jun 5, 2009 4:29pm
Quoting markmm
Thanks KISS, I cant really watch trade though, until I get home from work, it would be daily. If I get it to BE, thats fine, Ill decide what to do end of each day.
Ok. We don't trade much differently. I have another business to run as well as this one. That's why you see me post for a few days then you don't. Maybe then just use the levels that I previously spoke of as a partial TP. Some other food for thought, an indicator that sends you a text when a TP is acheived and then you just need to solve the problem of moving to BE. If you use MT4 broker, there are EA's for this.

K.I.S.S.
  • #32,454
  • Jun 5, 2009 4:33pm Jun 5, 2009 4:33pm
Quoting KissFan
Ok. We don't trade much differently. I have another business to run as well as this one. That's why you see me post for a few days then you don't. Maybe then just use the levels that I previously spoke of as a partial TP. Some other food for thought, an indicator that sends you a text when a TP is acheived and then you just need to solve the problem of moving to BE. If you use MT4 broker, there are EA's for this.

K.I.S.S.
I got the EA for that, you just set the pips profit you want to goto BE. I dont know if this is possible on MT4, but say I had a sell order for 1 lot and it hit my first TP I could have set a pending limit buy for .5 lot at this price, this would take half off?

Thanks KISS.

Mark
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #32,455
  • Jun 5, 2009 4:45pm Jun 5, 2009 4:45pm
Quoting markmm
I got the EA for that, you just set the pips profit you want to goto BE. I dont know if this is possible on MT4, but say I had a sell order for 1 lot and it hit my first TP I could have set a pending limit buy for .5 lot at this price, this would take half off?

Thanks KISS.

Mark
hi mark, i tried this when i was working and i was stopped out a couple of times before price hit my order,leaving me with a .5% possition i didnt want, going the opposite way to price!! hehe. after the second time i stopped. im not saying it will happen to you,just thought id mention it.
jon
PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
  • #32,456
  • Jun 5, 2009 5:17pm Jun 5, 2009 5:17pm
Quoting TiaForex
Try the guest side of the James16 Group private forum. Plenty of amazing free videos there. Google it, I don't think Jim likes the link to be posted here. (He doesn't want the free thread to seem like an advert for the private group)

Also try Martin Pring's youtube channel. MJPring is the username. His stuff is what Jim's teachings are based on. http://www.youtube.com/user/mjpring He goes into a few more things regarding indicators which you don't really need but he's a good guy.

And finally these guys were recently recommended...
TiaForex,

Thanks for these links.
  • #32,457
  • Jun 5, 2009 5:21pm Jun 5, 2009 5:21pm
I'm out for the weekend! Thanks for all the comments and see ya all sunday!
  • #32,458
  • Jun 5, 2009 5:32pm Jun 5, 2009 5:32pm
Quoting markmm
I got the EA for that, you just set the pips profit you want to goto BE. I dont know if this is possible on MT4, but say I had a sell order for 1 lot and it hit my first TP I could have set a pending limit buy for .5 lot at this price, this would take half off?

Thanks KISS.

Mark
Depends on the EA. There are several. But you have the idea. You can find the different EA's here on FF.

K.I.S.S.
  • #32,459
  • Edited 9:37pm Jun 5, 2009 6:24pm | Edited 9:37pm
Quoting Ryanmcd
One last thing on getting a quick 40-50 pips out of a 300 pip stop. On the 5min I would do 8pip stop with 24 gain most of the time, on this I dont see how you can pull down money if you are really running a 300 pip stop and taking 12% gain on the risk.

Here is a example: $1,000 a pip risk, 300 point stop thats 300k risk, now if I get +50 thats 50k oh nice good job ya ya ya.. Now here is where it gets ugly, doing good 3 wins 4 wins 5 wins, now a loss -300k. 5 wins 1 loss down 50k... Not sure how to manage the longer stuff yet that is why I am...
This was a big one for me too Ryan because Jim often takes these small RR winners. I tried trading like this and it worked for a while, but the odd loser wiped away 5 winners. I just couldn't stand that. 6 hard earned winners, some of which ran and ran after I got my profit and then boom all that work gone. Basically the equation is, as you know, small RR means you need an extremely high win rate.

Now Jim has been trading for 26 years and so his win rate on daily forex is 95% plus. And he hardly ever takes a full loss, pulling the plug early if the trade doesn't go his way. And he also has other systems and ways of trading. So it fits nicely. And a good bar in a good location is as reliable as anything else in the market.

Others do different things. Stop placement not necessarily at the end of the bar is something Jarroo does, looking for hard and fast breaks. Lower win rate, much higher RR. The recent UCAD short trade could have paid for the entire year if done that way. Or playing the retrace, which is slightly more risky because it isn't a pin bar until it's breached. But high quality lower time frame price action on a retrace of a daily bullish outside bar with fib or PPZ confluence is a great way to do that.

It;s about constructing a system from this method. Everyone plays it differently. But you're absolutely right. The low RR levels can be murder if you haven't got an amazing win rate, especially when trades don't appear that often. It's something I am looking at. I shorted the UCAD but got out way too quick so I am looking for a way to keep myself in without scaling out (which from my backtesting just hits my bottom line)

I am amazed with how humble you are in learning the dailies considering your extreme success on the lower TFs already.

There are various things to suggest in terms of reducing the stop; consider the left eye of pin bars which often act as support, or the preceeding bar high/low of an outside bar where price often retraces to, or even a 30-40 pip stop with confluence like jaroo. And allow MM to do the rest. These can greatly increase the RR but lower the win rate. Mind you, if you can stay in something like the UCAD short who cares.

There are so so so many ways to do this.

Hope that helps. Just throwing stuff out there. feels very weird to be "advising" someone I've looked up to for so long from my very very limited experience. But hey, we all have something to offer. Glad you're here.
  • #32,460
  • Jun 5, 2009 7:03pm Jun 5, 2009 7:03pm
TiaForex thanks so much for that post, I will get something down because PA is PA just longer times are traded a little different. The reason I want to do the longer stuff is to get away from the computer because I have the money now and if I had 1-2 big winners a year I could be fine. I know the higher times are not as hard to trade for most but I am new to this time so it's a little bit to learn. I have a friend who trades the weekly S&P e-mini and with 300 contracts make a few million a year and tades maybe 4-5 times a year so I know what I need to do just get better at the higher times when support and resistance play a bigger role then a 15min trade.
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
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