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Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #7,961
  • Edited 11:53am Jun 5, 2009 11:11am | Edited 11:53am
Quoting TheCyberCore
History repeats itself... today NFP was near to kill my S/L in a counter trade I started yesterday... I widened up my spread to 200(!!) and so to a Risk of ~5% which really saved my day (S/L 100 would have been hit) because I was sure on the trend and the news should have been bad for EUR. Now I am 130 in green.

Funny things those news in these days... it drives me to do things I have never expected to do before.
Hi there, CyberCore,

Wow... I was editing my signature and one of my posts disappeared. Just in case you did not read my previous post, I was saying that for the lot size I usually trade a 200 pip S/L in a counter trade is wayyy to risky for me, specially during news time. For me to risk 200 pips on a trade I would probably be targeting at least a 300 pips profit trade... and that would be trying to predict the market.

For me, 'Staying on the sidelines' is a position.

Still, congrats on your winning trade

Just one final comment. Once you plan your trade and trade the plan, stick to it. Better not mess with the S/L on the heat of the trade, 'cause although this time it saved the trade, you don't want to turn that into a habit that sooner or later will come back and bite you in the a$$. My 0.02 cents.

Cheers,
  • #7,962
  • Jun 5, 2009 11:23am Jun 5, 2009 11:23am
Thanks for all the input everybody. So as some sort of "compromise" I altered the limit order from 1.4020 to 1.4011, price is currently 1.3999.

I know that somewhere in the thread Jacko changes the SL and TSL parameters, but I haven't gotten there yet (I'm only on page 160), so I picked parameters that I thought would lock in my downside risk, and open up my topside potential.

All this talk about the news does make me question the validity of my trade, as the news could have been a driver for price to reach my entry. up until now, I've always avoided the news, it's way more trouble than its worth.

But what do you do if you have planned a trade, and you get the cue during news time? Obviously, if you have to enter at market, you will likely get an unsatisfactory fill, but if your broker is honest, and fills a limit order at the price you wanted, it's still a little sketchy isn't it?

So my question to other traders is: if you're waiting for a setup, and it happens around the time of a news release, do you forge ahead and take the trade, or just void the order and start fresh later?

http://i42.tinypic.com/255jfuu.png

http://i43.tinypic.com/205uzqs.png
  • #7,963
  • Jun 5, 2009 11:30am Jun 5, 2009 11:30am
  •  hansnl
  • | Joined May 2007 | Status: don't get shot trade small lots | 83 Posts
http://i42.tinypic.com/domg42.jpg

I will see this evening if I can move up my stop a bit.

enjoy your weekend all of you..

Hans..
  • #7,964
  • Jun 5, 2009 11:33am Jun 5, 2009 11:33am
Quoting Low

So my question to other traders is: if you're waiting for a setup, and it happens around the time of a news release, do you forge ahead and take the trade, or just void the order and start fresh later?
My answer would be to look at the higher order of time frames, e.g., Weekly and Monthly and ask yourself if you really want to trade AGAINST them

Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=155459
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #7,965
  • Jun 5, 2009 11:34am Jun 5, 2009 11:34am
Quoting hansnl

I will see this evening if I can move up my stop a bit.

enjoy your weekend all of you..

Hans..

Yeah, my order got filled while I was asleep.

I waited all week for 1.40. The least I can do is trade the plan, and let the market prove me right or wrong.
  • #7,966
  • Jun 5, 2009 12:05pm Jun 5, 2009 12:05pm
Quoting Low
Yeah, my order got filled while I was asleep.

I waited all week for 1.40. The least I can do is trade the plan, and let the market prove me right or wrong.
Yes you are right.Every opportuniy is not for everybody.No matter how much the market moves I will never enter any trade except it is in resonance with my plan.The market is chaotic enough.For stability ,we have to fight a chaotic market with a consistent approach.My simple formula is given by
good system + good money/risk management + good discipline = more money.If you risk less,plan your tradse and trade your plan then money will come.I believe a good system must have higher reward to risk per trade.
we cannot succeed without a well defined risk management.
  • #7,967
  • Jun 5, 2009 12:19pm Jun 5, 2009 12:19pm
  •  hansnl
  • | Joined May 2007 | Status: don't get shot trade small lots | 83 Posts
http://i41.tinypic.com/2wlybs8.jpg

last one I'm of now!!
  • #7,968
  • Jun 5, 2009 12:19pm Jun 5, 2009 12:19pm
Quoting strat
My answer would be to look at the higher order of time frames, e.g., Weekly and Monthly and ask yourself if you really want to trade AGAINST them
http://i39.tinypic.com/142dlsg.png

http://i40.tinypic.com/34ocvug.png
  • #7,969
  • Jun 5, 2009 12:25pm Jun 5, 2009 12:25pm
On the bright side. Even if this trade fails, I'll only have one losing trade for the whole week.

That itself is an improvement.
  • #7,970
  • Jun 5, 2009 12:41pm Jun 5, 2009 12:41pm
Quoting strat
My answer would be to look at the higher order of time frames, e.g., Weekly and Monthly and ask yourself if you really want to trade AGAINST them

Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=155459

sure I would . Monthly chart on Gj can be up but we can have 1500 pip reatrcements.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #7,971
  • Jun 5, 2009 12:41pm Jun 5, 2009 12:41pm
We are currently at the bottom of the 4H Trendline. This current area could be a great buy, however it is always better to see price drop and then if you are going long, buy it on the way up as it passes up thru your price. Buying anything when it is still falling is akin to catching a falling knife as although you have an "idea" the price will stop - we really never know and the only way we can make a decision is if the price proves to us that it has stopped, by moving north. Trade what you see - not what you think.
  • #7,972
  • Jun 5, 2009 12:46pm Jun 5, 2009 12:46pm
Quoting Low
... But what do you do if you have planned a trade, and you get the cue during news time? Obviously, if you have to enter at market, you will likely get an unsatisfactory fill, but if your broker is honest, and fills a limit order at the price you wanted, it's still a little sketchy isn't it?

So my question to other traders is: if you're waiting for a setup, and it happens around the time of a news release, do you forge ahead and take the trade, or just void the order and start fresh later?
In my case, if during news time PA gets to my planned entry, I rather wait for the PA to settle down as I do not like to "catch falling knives" (Thanks Jacko!!). Also, as I mentioned on a previous post, if I can be in front of the computer when I'm entering a trade (most of the times I am) I rather wait for confirmation that the retracement has ended and place the trade once it's on its way back. I rather miss a few pips by doing this instead of getting my order get picked up and then watch in despair as price keeps going the other way. But that it just me and maybe I'm not experienced enough as I know that many experienced traders place their limit orders and just let them get filled once PA gets to their desired entry regardless of the market direction.

If we take tonight as an example, PA traveled 267 pips before reaching our round number target, but it could have easily gone an extra 40 or 50 pips IMHO. In my case, I would have rather wait till I see a clear signal that PA is on its way back up, instead of just let my order get filled and then pray that my study is right and that somehow that big downwards momentum is gonna stop at one of our S/Rs.

One last comment, I never take trades on Friday after 12:00GMT unless I'm confident (as I will NEVER be sure) that I'll close the trade before the weekend. Otherwise, I rather wait till Monday to place my trade and enjoy the weekend with the family instead of worrying about weekend gaps. Admittedly I have lost a few trade opportunities by doing this, but these were 'only opportunities' not hard earned ca$h. A new opportunity will be just around the corner. My 0.02 pips.
  • #7,973
  • Jun 5, 2009 12:55pm Jun 5, 2009 12:55pm
I generally don't mind holding trades over the weekend, but only if there is some breathing space between price and my entry.

I could easily imagine price gaping down to my stop to close me out, before heading my direction again on Sunday.

I am currently about 14 pips in the hole, and deciding weather to close it and bank the loss, or hold over the weekend.

There is a part of me that just wants to let the trade sort itself out instead of second-guessing myself.

I think this is what I'll do.
  • #7,974
  • Jun 5, 2009 1:00pm Jun 5, 2009 1:00pm
Fiber is at 1.4002 as I type. I'm in the airport and have placed a pending Buy Stop order at 1.4070 with a 100 pip SL. It's not the best bargain price but the +/- 70 pips from current market price gives me some breathing room. I still have about an hour before my plane leaves. Given my situation this pending Buy Stop is the best I can do. Fingers crossed it'll continue to move South and I'll have Internet when it starts it's way back up. Also hopeful it doesn't go too far South of the 4H trend line.

I'm actually hoping my plane gets delayed further so I can see the close of trading today and maybe adjust by pending Buy Stop. Kind of perverse isn't it?
  • #7,975
  • Edited 1:18pm Jun 5, 2009 1:05pm | Edited 1:18pm
stopped out at 1.3959. Market decided for me. Will place the AH at 1.3959 when/if price reaches 1.3909.
  • #7,976
  • Edited 1:29pm Jun 5, 2009 1:13pm | Edited 1:29pm
Quoting Low
I generally don't mind holding trades over the weekend, but only if there is some breathing space between price and my entry.

I could easily imagine price gaping down to my stop to close me out, before heading my direction again on Sunday.

I am currently about 14 pips in the hole, and deciding weather to close it and bank the loss, or hold over the weekend.

There is a part of me that just wants to let the trade sort itself out instead of second-guessing myself.

I think this is what I'll do.
As I said before. That is just me and everyone has to follow their own trading methods. These second-guessings is what I always try to avoid. And just going over the weekend holding a losing position hoping that I will not get stopped out over early Asian session on Monday is just too stressful for me. Besides, seems to me that Friday's late NY session are heavily manipulated as liquidity gets thinner.
  • #7,977
  • Jun 5, 2009 4:22pm Jun 5, 2009 4:22pm
Quoting hansnl
http://i41.tinypic.com/2wlybs8.jpg

last one I'm of now!!


Why is it so easy to draw a trendline?
It seems everyone can draw it. But a few are succesfull
  • #7,978
  • Edited 8:00pm Jun 5, 2009 6:35pm | Edited 8:00pm
Hi all...

Wondering if everyone just follows the Retracment entry or do you follow some others that were shown in a .PDF file of Jacko's ideas and such.. The method I refer to is something by Gann....the 3 bars..I think SMJones contributed this..

the daily chart off eur.. In this recent example they would have been near perfect entries
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  • #7,979
  • Jun 5, 2009 6:42pm Jun 5, 2009 6:42pm
Quoting hansnl
http://i41.tinypic.com/2wlybs8.jpg

last one I'm of now!!
I don't want to contradict your 5-year-old, but looking at your daily chart the trend is down...the left of your chart is higher than the right. Over 300 bars it's getting close, but we aren't there just yet.

The 4-hour is a different matter - the channel you've drawn covers 300 bars on the smaller timeframe; left below right. Most definitely up!

If your 5-year-old was more timeframe specific then I'm sure we'd agree
  • #7,980
  • Jun 5, 2009 6:48pm Jun 5, 2009 6:48pm
Daily trend line is broken badly, however it may just be because of news. I would not take a long here, if it retraces and uses trendline as suport I will go short. Weekly pin bar also makes me want to short this.
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