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Tony's Two Candle trading system

  • #101
  • Jun 4, 2009 4:21pm Jun 4, 2009 4:21pm
Hi

Great...sick of all the lagging indicators .....I just added the attached candle recognition master indi....helps a bit with the decision making.

Thanks to the creator of this thread.

Re the indi: When you attach it to your MT4 chart each candle that represents some candlestick pattern will be marked with the symbol. A legend for the symbols is located in the top left corner of the chart and you can easily find out which patter is represented by the specific symbol. Now, all you have to do is to buy after the strong bullish patterns and sell on the strong bearish patterns.
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File Type: ex4 Pattern_Recognition_Master_v3.ex4   24 KB | 1,777 downloads
  • #102
  • Jun 4, 2009 4:48pm Jun 4, 2009 4:48pm
I am looking forward to learning price action. This is a simple method I just have to slowly learn it. I look forward too it.
  • #103
  • Jun 4, 2009 7:59pm Jun 4, 2009 7:59pm
Quoting ronm7d
so tony, could you tell us how long have you trying this system?, so people don't think when it's work,it just a lucky streak.
thx for sharing
Its not just that some people doubt it could work, its just that the mind cannot comprehend the simplicity of it and interpret possible results. Too many traders shun the simple methods (probably because they also believe if its too good to be true yadda yadda) and go with the complex, rack your brains, fill your charts methods that are posted everywhere.

Im not a fan of stating the profitability of a method before the method gets off the ground. For some reason people see this and they need hard results without devoting anytime to trialling it themselves. There are plenty of threads on here that claim high returns and the same thing happens, traders cut it down with questions and criticism before even reading and trialling the method. In some cases it is a good thing (protecting noob traders from the destruction of following a thread that promises rediculous results) however it is still ultimatly up to the individual to pick and choose and today there are more demo platforms opening daily so you can give a method a good trial before deciding to put the money on the table.

So far this thread is starting to develope with some people taking active involvement. Time the mother of all will tell how successful this method can be.

Razor
  • #104
  • Jun 4, 2009 8:26pm Jun 4, 2009 8:26pm
out with 25pips on ej
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  • #105
  • Jun 4, 2009 10:14pm Jun 4, 2009 10:14pm
Quoting ronrhodes
HI smurf,

You know, the answers to your questions are in the first few pages of the thread.

Not too difficult to get your answers and not ask for repetition by Tony or others.

Tony gave the hours he trades, and why he favors the USDJPY (and sometimes EURJPY) and *why not* the pairs you mention...

Come on folks, spare Tony and us all, and so you don't look foolish:...
No i don't feel insulted. I just asked a question. I have read these 7 pages over and over. Well i withdraw the question without an Understanding. We all learn on different levels. Thanks anyway.
  • #106
  • Jun 4, 2009 10:39pm Jun 4, 2009 10:39pm
In first page it just mentioned up until new york session. I have looked at post9,28,48,45,48,50,58,74,88. i tells me about the low spread market slow wich tell a lot but do you trade upto or thru the new york session. People are going through the session. Thanks anyway.
  • #107
  • Jun 4, 2009 10:48pm Jun 4, 2009 10:48pm
Having some good fun here =-]

3 trades 3 winners profit of 30pips

I don't think a lot of people are seeing the potential of this system cause its so easy and they probably think there is no way it can actually be this easy. So 1st day of really demoing this and i have 5 orders that were all winners.
Will keep demoing. =-]
Time is what keeps everything from happening "right now".
  • #108
  • Jun 4, 2009 11:03pm Jun 4, 2009 11:03pm
Ok looks like we might have a new order coming.

Price of Prev bar Low: 96.72

Short entry at: 96.67
Set Tp: 96.57 +10
Set SL: Will watch how it goes lol But i'll set a hard SL at 96.89(High of prev candle)

Lets see how it goes guys =-]
Time is what keeps everything from happening "right now".
  • #109
  • Jun 4, 2009 11:07pm Jun 4, 2009 11:07pm
hi all....
i must have the monkey on my back or something....i had 10 trades.....
lost 5 and won 5 but my losses were with more pips.
maybe i am having trouble picking out the correct candles (i am a newbie and u would think anyone could pick out a candle but.....)
i will continue though and study study....thanks for all of your help!!
  • #110
  • Jun 4, 2009 11:23pm Jun 4, 2009 11:23pm
this system is very simple. i using that 3 month already. But i not take all two candle for entry. I'm using certain time only and entry follow to 5m tf for comfirmation. Min tp 50 pips.
  • #111
  • Jun 4, 2009 11:27pm Jun 4, 2009 11:27pm
S.....
could you explain a little more.....don't quite understand....thanks..
  • #112
  • Jun 4, 2009 11:37pm Jun 4, 2009 11:37pm
Folks,

My strong suggestion is to trade only after 7GMT and max around 20GMT.

Enter the market with a certain goal in mind, like 20-40pips or whatever you need, then stop trading.

Not trading in right sessions, over trading and not having a goal n plan is not good for the health of a trader.

For newbie, just practice on a demo. trade with no more than 10% of your demo money, target 20-40pips per day, thats 2-4% gains per day and 40-80% profit per month.

Just imagine if you had a 100,000$ account and you make 40-80% of that per month, thats a killing 40-80k per months!!

I have researched a good filter to prevent taking trades on consolidating candles. Here is the filter -

1, add a 5 period smoothed moving average following HIGH prices.
2, add a 5 period smoothed moving average following LOW prices.

If the candles are inside of the moving averages, you might not want to consider trading & if the candle breaks out of the moving averages you might consider wanting to trade the next candle.

Additionally, you might want to also use a 1minute chart to monitor price action on the minutely scale to see how good the trade is and for alert if the trade is going against you.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...5&postcount=45

Wish you all Happy pipping! Please find all the answers to your quessy's by reading through the posts.

Cya laters,
Tony
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prepare for worst & expect the best
  • #113
  • Edited 12:16am Jun 5, 2009 12:01am | Edited 12:16am
Hope this helps, and i also hope that i am right lol. If i am wrong please tell me so i can change the way i trade this.

That last pending short is now closed cause of the new long bar.
Im going to sleep so i'll have a look and see what to do tomorrow. Gnite happy trading
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Time is what keeps everything from happening "right now".
  • #114
  • Jun 5, 2009 12:34am Jun 5, 2009 12:34am
Quoting Dv84
Hope this helps, and i also hope that i am right lol. If i am wrong please tell me so i can change the way i trade this.

That last pending short is now closed cause of the new long bar.
Im going to sleep so i'll have a look and see what to do tomorrow. Gnite happy trading

Hy guys !

I was a silent "watcher" of this thread and I think this is a real interesting approach. first time when I sow those FX charts I said:

"Hei ... thouse candles are walking two by two"

At that time I didn't know anything about any system or paterns or indicators, PA, Fibo, R/S etc. LOL
Now I know a few things, but I realised that I have allot to learn.

So Tony had the guts to make a thread on this subject and I am verry thankfull to him, couse it reminds me of what I sow my first time when I read about FX.

Thx Tony !

Now about your (Dv84) post, it seems to me that you are waiting that the tradable bar to get over/under the high/low of the signal candle with 5 pips and then you are getting your profit. It is an interesting approach too.
Also I sow that if a bar has given to you a profit you will not use the next bar as a signal bar for an eventual trade (if I am wrong please corect me)

I just want to ask you, why did you entered your rule number2 ?
What is the base for this rule ? Don't get me wrong, I just want to see the reason, not to criticise.

It seems to me that from 8 trades you had 7 winers ! It looks good to me

Thx Dv84,

And ...


Have pips !
  • #115
  • Jun 5, 2009 12:43am Jun 5, 2009 12:43am
Quoting tony_dtrader
Folks,


For newbie, just practice on a demo. trade with no more than 10% of your demo money, target 20-40pips per day, thats 2-4% gains per day and 40-80% profit per month.

Just imagine if you had a 100,000$ account and you make 40-80% of that per month, thats a killing 40-80k per months!!


Tony
Whilst I am with you so far on the simplicity of the concept, best not to warp the imaginations of people by this post. Imagination and reality are 2 separate concepts, imagining things such as making 80K a month is not realistic unless you account allows it (it would have be much larger the 100K) If you were able to double a 100K account in a year that would be fantastic.

And 10% of an account on any trade will lead to emotional killing when you string 3 or more loosers together. A more rational approach, at 100K at least would be 2.5-3%. Rome wasnt built in a day which is why so much of it still stand today. Trade safely and for the longevity of it, not risk more than you need to.
  • #116
  • Edited 2:27am Jun 5, 2009 2:24am | Edited 2:27am
Quoting smurf
In first page it just mentioned up until new york session. I have looked at post9,28,48,45,48,50,58,74,88. i tells me about the low spread market slow wich tell a lot but do you trade upto or thru the new york session. People are going through the session. Thanks anyway.
---------
Quoting smurf
No i don't feel insulted. I just asked a question. I have read these 7 pages over and over. Well i withdraw the question without an Understanding. We all learn on different levels. Thanks anyway.
smurf, looking good! ... like you are finding your answers. But what does "different levels of learning" have to do with plain written posts there in black and white (again, no offense. Just to help 'get to it')?

Tony, in post #9 as you already read:

"...mostly only trading this on usdjpy since it has a less volatility and stoploss/spread than other pair.

I only recommend using this on 1hour chart and trading only from european to [probably Tony should have said "through" NY session] new york session, because we need a market that moves to profit and not a sleepy market with small candles.

In my broker fxdd, from 9:00 to 24:00 , thats 15 hours and 15 candles per day to trade.

[Ron: 2 AM - 5 PM Eastern. That is "through" New York session. However, some folks *might* say the first 4 hours of each session (generally) is good enough.]

This system is just pure price action, if buyers pushed the price up in the past hour, its more likely buyers will push the price up again on the next hour, vice versa for sellers.

However Tony says in more recent post about times to trade from 7 GMT - max of 20 GMT...I believe that is about 2 AM - 3 PM Eastern...is that about right? 2 hours shy of end of NY session?

Hope this helps & not hinders.

Ron
  • #117
  • Jun 5, 2009 3:06am Jun 5, 2009 3:06am
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting mikkom
Here is USDJPY with very simple rules and h1 (please confirm if I understood the first post correctly) I don't have long m1 data for usdjpy so this is not as reliable as it should be.

Bull candle: previous candle must be a "good" bull candle, open is at lower 25% of the candle and close is at upper 25% of the candle. Vice versa for bear candles.

I enter at new bar open + (- for shorts) 10 pips (with buy/sell stop) and target 20 pips (with tp). Stop loss is always at previous candle low.

Note that I don't use any indicators here, just...

Your EA is not functioning correctly, you are only achieving a 46% accuracy, any thing less than 85% is pointless for backtesting, irrelevant of the availability of the data, i have data that goes back to 2005, when you get it running smoothly, i can run it through if you'd like.
  • #118
  • Jun 5, 2009 3:14am Jun 5, 2009 3:14am
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting Razor_trader
So far this thread is starting to develope with some people taking active involvement. Time the mother of all will tell how successful this method can be.

Razor

G'day mate

you do like your breakout methods don't you, i too agree with you that this system just need time to prove itself, the thinking behind it is solid

If the buyers are buying then get with the sheep and buy
If the sellers are selling then get with the sheep and sel

BUT DON'T GET GREEDY take only a little at a time

I tried a MA EA that had a tp of 10pips Broke even so i dropped the idea but this idea is more re-actional to the situation, rather than a lagging MA

I see no reason for it not to work - look at the charts and forward test in demo I say

I do agree that thoughs testing this should not trade real or above 2% risk, learn it first get confident then gradually move up if you must

best of pips all
  • #119
  • Jun 5, 2009 6:33am Jun 5, 2009 6:33am
Quoting MPP
G'day mate

you do like your breakout methods don't you, i too agree with you that this system just need time to prove itself, the thinking behind it is solid

If the buyers are buying then get with the sheep and buy
If the sellers are selling then get with the sheep and sel

BUT DON'T GET GREEDY take only a little at a time

I tried a MA EA that had a tp of 10pips Broke even so i dropped the idea but this idea is more re-actional to the situation, rather than a lagging MA

I see no reason for it not to work - look at the charts and forward...
Hi MPP

LOL i love em. I did take 2 trades on this system, but added my little swing to it by having TP at 1:1 for half my position and let the other half run. Same set up that I use for my IB trades in my journal. Both got a little steam before coming back and knocking me out. What I look for is bigger R/R and this method suits that to a T because the small risk means small movement to 1:1, after that its a free ride. Some candles today which I missed (looking at my own system 99% of the time) ran extremely nicely, in some cases ran passed 5:1 R/R. The ultimate benefit could be what I look for an that is a trade that runs for much longer and yields a much greater R/R. It is possible to let your winners run longer than 20 pips if some are prepared, but that is not part of this method so I dont want to take away the core which is outlined in the first few post.

Take care

Razor
  • #120
  • Jun 5, 2009 7:45am Jun 5, 2009 7:45am
Sorry tony_dtrader,

I just want to add something about the 'being greedy' part (MPP). Just adding that aiming for more pips on a single trade is smart business. Greedy can be alot of things (I know this is not what your referring to MPP bud) but letting some winners run past X point can do wonders for your equity curve and your account balance. I trade the more volitile pair of GBP/USD especially during the London/New york cross. It offers good moves, and if you get a small risk candle you can maximise your potential by letting it run.

How you do that is up to you. You could move your SL to +5 after say 20 pips, and if you weather the storm you could make greater pips. I post a pic of the GBP to show you what I mean. By doing this you can also alleviate the amount of time spent at your screen.

If this is stepping over the boundaries tony_dtrader just let me know and Ill remove this post (dont want to step on toes of someone elses methods)

Take care

Razor
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