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Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #7,921
  • Jun 4, 2009 11:50am Jun 4, 2009 11:50am
Quoting Jpnek
tell me about news trading... when the FOMC shit hit the fan last March I got caught with a 200 pip slippage... ouch!

News-trading seems like a very expensive subscription to me.

I can read the NFP numbers right here on FF for nothing.

If I have an open trade, and a news announcement is coming up, I will:

A) widen the stop to stay in the trade regardless, because I believe I am "with the trend" and it will continue in my favor.

B)close the trade and let the news sort itself out.

Just my two pips.
  • #7,922
  • Jun 4, 2009 12:52pm Jun 4, 2009 12:52pm
  •  hansnl
  • | Joined May 2007 | Status: don't get shot trade small lots | 83 Posts
http://i43.tinypic.com/28tezdh.jpg

yes very good idea, just a test picture

cheers,
  • #7,923
  • Jun 4, 2009 1:00pm Jun 4, 2009 1:00pm
  •  hansnl
  • | Joined May 2007 | Status: don't get shot trade small lots | 83 Posts
http://i40.tinypic.com/293kjed.jpg

mmm. looks better, less depression in the background..
  • #7,924
  • Jun 4, 2009 1:02pm Jun 4, 2009 1:02pm
Quoting hansnl

yes very good idea, just a test picture

cheers,

Hansnl,

I was turned on to a piece of free software called "jing" by another poster here at FF, which works really well for taking very clear screenshots, and adding legible text.

Just google it.

It's amazingly easy to use, and doesn't require me to re-size images to make them manageable.
  • #7,925
  • Jun 4, 2009 2:59pm Jun 4, 2009 2:59pm
hi guys,

I took the buy bus at 1.41 as i saw it retrace 2 50% fib level and I saw a support level in that zone from a couple of days back. Still a bit uncertain because I also saw a double high low close what could be a sign of a bigger retracement or as we call it in Dutch; this could be a trade where we are pissing against the wind. I am a strong believer of trading the trend now and that gave me the guts to buy at this level, still keeping my fingers crossed on my first trend base trade.

Thank you all for this wonderful thread by the way, I am gaining confidence, we will see how this work out.

Thank you.
  • #7,926
  • Jun 4, 2009 5:39pm Jun 4, 2009 5:39pm
So who is else is in and who is waiting on the sidelines with me?

Low, what are 140.20 and 136.00? The range between yesterday and today is 1.4337 and 1.4070 I don't understand 140.20 and 136.00, because EURUSD isn't quoted as such?
  • #7,927
  • Jun 4, 2009 5:48pm Jun 4, 2009 5:48pm
Ricky, why didn't you took the long at 1.4100 as it was at a 50% fib retracement and support level on daily? Did I oversee something, could you share your thoughts please? Just trying to understand.

Many thanks in advance.
  • #7,928
  • Jun 4, 2009 6:15pm Jun 4, 2009 6:15pm
Quoting RickyRudy
So who is else is in and who is waiting on the sidelines with me?

Low, what are 140.20 and 136.00? The range between yesterday and today is 1.4337 and 1.4070 I don't understand 140.20 and 136.00, because EURUSD isn't quoted as such?

LOL!

Move decimal point two places to the left.

1.3600 is a distant 50%(see chart), if the LTL broke, I would probably also look for short-term longs at other fib points.

I picked 1.4020 because of the slope of the trendline. It is a more aggressive entry, should price head for the lower TL, but I have reservations about weather or not price will "punch through" the trendline, or just glance near it. Also notice that 1.4020 is between the 50% and 61.8% on the H3 swing fib. My suspicion is that price may come within a few pips of a solid 1.40 and head northward again.

But I'm completely new at this and could be full of it.

So I am on the sidelines with you until price proves my analysis right or wrong.
  • #7,929
  • Jun 4, 2009 6:35pm Jun 4, 2009 6:35pm
Quoting RickyRudy
So who is else is in and who is waiting on the sidelines with me?
I'm waiting for further retrace.....looking at the weekly, we're right at the Fib50 mark (see chart) - 1.4300 was a S/R target I mentioned a few posts back (Rest assured, the smugness won't last). It's just my humble opinion, but I reckon that sometime soon we're in for quite a significant drop.

I think Low meant that 1.3600 was entirely feasible as a retrace and I'm inclined to agree; if you draw a Fib from 1.2900 to the recent high on the daily, then that's the area we're looking at.

Of course, that doesn't mean that we have to keep switching timeframes - I'll trade 4H in the direction of the trend (up) at 50% retraces as usual, but I'll also be mindful of moving positions to B/E and perhaps trailing slightly closer. After all, there's a lot of room for retracement on the 4H chart before we even start to contemplate a change of trend.

Over 300 bars: weekly is up, daily is down (just), 4H is up.

I'm a resolute bull, but as far as I can see the time-frames won't line up until we pass the 1.5000 mark. Find support at this level and we're going to the moon!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd5.gif Size: 16 KB
  • #7,930
  • Jun 4, 2009 7:23pm Jun 4, 2009 7:23pm
I should probably add, that depending on what happens Friday, a weekly pin-bar would certainly strengthen the case for a drop at the Fib50 where we are currently. If it breaks the low, it's even more likely.

However, looking at the last weekly retracement, the 61.8 Fib was breached before the market decided to play along - that's a lot of pips to get lost in. It's all relative.

The whole idea of TA is to make the markets tradeable. That's why Jacko's instructions to concentrate on a single time frame are so vital.

I think it's good to have an overview, but ultimately trade from A to B / as the crow flies. For the 4H trader, information given by the weekly is like a winding country road; on the way it'll always lose you money if you pay too much attention.

Don't forget, tomorrow is NFP. I won't be trading.
  • #7,931
  • Jun 4, 2009 7:42pm Jun 4, 2009 7:42pm
just to clarify:

I choose 1.4020 because I saw what happened to all the folks patiently waiting for 1.3750, who got shafted by 30 pips.

Maybe I'm being an impatient, aggressive, newbie.

But if a wait an entire week for a trade, I would be very disappointed if I missed the bus by such a slim margin.

Your criticisms are encouraged.
  • #7,932
  • Jun 4, 2009 7:53pm Jun 4, 2009 7:53pm
Quoting Low
just to clarify:

I choose 1.4020 because I saw what happened to all the folks patiently waiting for 1.3750, who got shafted by 30 pips.

Maybe I'm being an impatient, aggressive, newbie.

But if a wait an entire week for a trade, I would be very disappointed if I missed the bus by such a slim margin.

Your criticisms are encouraged.
personally I'd rather get in late than get in at 1.4020 and then have it drop down far past 1.4 and stop you out.
  • #7,933
  • Jun 4, 2009 8:35pm Jun 4, 2009 8:35pm
Quoting newcapital
Ricky, why didn't you took the long at 1.4100 as it was at a 50% fib retracement and support level on daily? Did I oversee something, could you share your thoughts please? Just trying to understand.

Many thanks in advance.
Your entry might NOT be a bad one. I might have been a bit too conservative waiting for a move just below the 50% fib. That move didn't come as price technically fell about 5 pips short of the 50%. Being that it was news time when it took place, I wanted to see more of a Southern move then catch it on its way up.

Another factor is the steep uptrend. It is not unusual to see more of a retracement with such a rapid rise. Then there is the concept of entering a position during news time. I've gotten to be reluctant to do that lately. Admittedly I'm new to the this method as well. Finding the right moment to enter is sometimes the most difficult thing.
  • #7,934
  • Jun 4, 2009 9:10pm Jun 4, 2009 9:10pm
^^^ I might add, somehow I feel content with my decision.
  • #7,935
  • Jun 4, 2009 10:27pm Jun 4, 2009 10:27pm
Hi...


Just for interest....for screen shots I use....Screenhunter 5.1 free version..

And i see a few still having trouble deciding on an entry...the 50% does not get any better....if your waiting for lower....WHY...how do you know it will ho lower...wishing and hoping does not pay the bills...I dont think there is a right moment to enter....just the best of the possibilities..
  • #7,936
  • Edited 11:21pm Jun 4, 2009 10:38pm | Edited 11:21pm
hi all...


Low.....looks like you had a great entry there..now to manage that trade..good to see you pull the trigger......and at a very reasonable level... If it does go against you ..it wont be the entry that was at fault...just the market going against you as it will do...
I guess I better take some of this back as the trade was not taken....my error.
  • #7,937
  • Jun 4, 2009 11:05pm Jun 4, 2009 11:05pm
Quoting Angler

And i see a few still having trouble deciding on an entry...the 50% does not get any better....if your waiting for lower....WHY...how do you know it will ho lower...wishing and hoping does not pay the bills...I dont think there is a right moment to enter....just the best of the possibilities..

The problem I'm having is....50% of what? It's too easy to draw too many fibs, and then I'm just plain confused.


I didn't take the trade at 1.4070, because I was away from the computer at the time. And I am not sure I wanted it. Being new to this method, I'm holding out for the bottom TL, and hopefully don't get burned.

I would like to follow griffco's advice and catch price on the way up rather than the way down, but I use Oanda and their limit orders are not directionally biased like metatrader, so I'll need a market order to catch it, and Oanda also doesn't provide price alerts meaning it'll have to happen when I'm in front of the computer, which is not all the time.

I admire your ability to hop on these intermediary moves, and hope I'm not being too conservative by looking for entries off of the daily chart. This is all so new to me, that I don't expect to be right the first time, but if my patience paid off, it would go a long way towards boosting my confidence.

Starting next week, I'll begin considering entry's on the H3, and see if I can catch some of these moves, but E/U is still so foreign to me, that I don't know how it is "most likely" to behave.

Anybody have any thought's on a long entry around 1.4000?
  • #7,938
  • Edited 11:28pm Jun 4, 2009 11:10pm | Edited 11:28pm
hi all

Low....the 50%...from the low on about the 28th @ 1.3791 and the high on about the 3rd @ 1.4336..
Attached Image
  • #7,939
  • Jun 5, 2009 12:23am Jun 5, 2009 12:23am
Quoting Low
The problem I'm having is....50% of what? It's too easy to draw too many fibs, and then I'm just plain confused.

....

Anybody have any thought's on a long entry around 1.4000?

I guess your drawings are not bad. Anyway it is best to use higher TF Fibs. In the current market H4 may be a good choice, but also daily works for me.

For uptrend Fibs I am using bottoms and terraces showing up within a price consesus. From these you get some Levels to watch. For me the Fib 50 on daily is stronger than Fib 50 on H4.
  • #7,940
  • Jun 5, 2009 12:47am Jun 5, 2009 12:47am
hi all...


maybe I can find out something here....

I have looked at a few trades by Jacko...on the other site....

everyone here seems to be trying to get in on some long term trend trade where you can use the AH and ride it forever...

from what I have seen of Jacko's trades...( and maybe I am wrong ) most of his trades were not that long..and 100 pips or so was good...

he makes up for the smaller pips by using many lots...with confidence in his trades


has this style changed somewhere that I do not know about..
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