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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #180,881
  • Jun 4, 2009 4:36pm Jun 4, 2009 4:36pm
Quoting malcolmb14
i was last night .. very bearish .. was hoping to make it big ...lol. Thankfully i had stops at break even , but to see my profit gobbled up was frustrating. I would have typically closed both trades with nice proft but greed got the better part of me . I could have sworn it was going to drop to 153. ....so many things I did wrong on that trade.

1) did not take partial profit
2) was so married one way ignored the clear bull div on 15 min rsx before move up
3) was being greedy.

I tpically only trade 5 to 10 lots
Ok . Malcolmb..

Not sure if you are still on ..FF..

I noticed something on DAILY.. VOLUME..iT IS VERY hIGH...LAST 2 DAYS....THIS IS TELLING ME .. THIS IS A LONG TERM TOP.. FOR NOW...tHIS THING IS GONNA TANK..HARD..

Could you please confirm.. from your paid service.. I need to short this thing.. Big time.. Daily chart please.. wait for your reply..
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #180,882
  • Jun 4, 2009 4:52pm Jun 4, 2009 4:52pm
Quoting Raza
Ok . Malcolmb..

Not sure if you are still on ..FF..

I noticed something on DAILY.. VOLUME..iT IS VERY hIGH...LAST 2 DAYS....THIS IS TELLING ME .. THIS IS A LONG TERM TOP.. FOR NOW...tHIS THING IS GONNA TANK..HARD..

Could you please confirm.. from your paid service.. I need to short this thing.. Big time.. Daily chart please.. wait for your reply..
No need to tell what this looks like..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: head and shoulder pattern.jpg Size: 202 KB
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #180,883
  • Jun 4, 2009 4:53pm Jun 4, 2009 4:53pm
Quoting Raza
Ok . Malcolmb..

Not sure if you are still on ..FF..

I noticed something on DAILY.. VOLUME..iT IS VERY hIGH...LAST 2 DAYS....THIS IS TELLING ME .. THIS IS A LONG TERM TOP.. FOR NOW...tHIS THING IS GONNA TANK..HARD..

Could you please confirm.. from your paid service.. I need to short this thing.. Big time.. Daily chart please.. wait for your reply..

the high volume last 2 trading sessions has been on down bars. The up bars have been low volume

This thing is being sold at the moment . Maybe not this week , but next week we may well see 150 ish

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ym362.png Size: 150 KB
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #180,884
  • Jun 4, 2009 4:57pm Jun 4, 2009 4:57pm
soon gbp should drop across the board, Brown about to resign.......
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  • #180,885
  • Jun 4, 2009 4:58pm Jun 4, 2009 4:58pm
Quoting malcolmb14
the high volume last 2 trading sessions has been on down bars. The up bars have been low volume

This thing is being sold at the moment . Maybe not this week , but next week we may well see 150 ish

Attachment
I just shorted this ..150xx we might see by friday close..
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #180,886
  • Jun 4, 2009 5:03pm Jun 4, 2009 5:03pm
Quoting Raza
I just shorted this ..150xx we might see by friday close..
We saw pretty wide spreads for yesterday and today's daily... Since you just shorted, you dont think it will go up at all in Asia?
  • #180,887
  • Jun 4, 2009 5:10pm Jun 4, 2009 5:10pm
Quoting malcolmb14
newer traders note this .... the use of zones. I have often spoken to new traders that say support is 155.6578790 ..lol ( ok that is an exageration) , support is in the 155.5 zone ( meaning that within a percentage of the exact number you should be looking for reversals) .

I forgot this simple rule last night in London session when Gj came down to 155.85 , but pivot low was 155.67 . I was expecting price to hit exactly support. I had 20 lots on 2 trades both with nice profit and stops set at break even , what was a 120 and 90 pips trade on...
20 lots? I know you do what you can to contribute to the education of others and a money management strategy is key in the development of the mind of the trader.

Personally I wouldn't trade 20 lot positions unless I had a $1,000,000+ fund or I was adding on the positive trades with additional exposure for long term positioning.

Most new traders should know that risk is what separates a sustainable career in asset management and a quick exit with nothing to show but experience in losing over the long run.
  • #180,888
  • Jun 4, 2009 5:11pm Jun 4, 2009 5:11pm
Quoting nonchalant
We saw pretty wide spreads for yesterday and today's daily... Since you just shorted, you dont think it will go up at all in Asia?
It could . but I am thinking -400 pips or +4000pips( give or take)

I see a head & shoulder on 15M.. also 1Hr..
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #180,889
  • Jun 4, 2009 5:19pm Jun 4, 2009 5:19pm
Quoting Raza
It could . but I am thinking -400 pips or +4000pips( give or take)

I see a head & shoulder on 15M.. also 1Hr..
What do mean by +4000 pips?
  • #180,890
  • Jun 4, 2009 5:23pm Jun 4, 2009 5:23pm
Quoting sleep1Iopen
20 lots? I know you do what you can to contribute to the education of others and a money management strategy is key in the development of the mind of the trader.

Personally I wouldn't trade 20 lot positions unless I had a $1,000,000+ fund or I was adding on the positive trades with additional exposure for long term positioning.

Most new traders should know that risk is what separates a sustainable career in asset management and a quick exit with nothing to show but experience in losing over the long run.
I was overleveraged.... once I had stop set at +1 1st set I added 2nd ..

The 1st set initial risk 2.5 % (50 pips).

The 2nd set (once price move 30 pips and stop set to +1 on 1st set) was added with 2.5% risk .

Once the stop was moved down tp +1 on 1st set risk was mitigated unless we got Gordon Brown 200 pip candle

200 k account needed not 1 mil . If you take the best trade set ups and are sure of the analysis the risk is not to bad if .

Typically risk is 1.5 % per trade (50 pips ) so i try to let the trades run 100 pip , then to make money at end of year I only need 50 % of trades to be profitable
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #180,891
  • Edited 5:34pm Jun 4, 2009 5:24pm | Edited 5:34pm
Quoting pino2
What do mean by +4000 pips?
See previous post for daily chart... if that happens..from neckline141xx to 160xx is 2000pips.. give or take... Now for head&shoulder to happen you measure the size of the head which is 2000pips.. reverse it ..

Now you have +4000pips give or take.. if not 3000pips minimum.

Price below 15m. 1Hr..2 hR .. GANN...ALSO 50 EMA. . 4HR. BELOW GANN.. going to touch 50ema. if candle closes below 4hr 50ema.tanking should prevail..

As soon as it touches 4hr 50ema.. stop loss will be placed at +1 pip ..all positions.. we will see if it even gets there..and if it does..it might bounce...at 154.94
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #180,892
  • Jun 4, 2009 5:36pm Jun 4, 2009 5:36pm
Quoting malcolmb14
I was overleveraged.... once I had stop set at +1 1st set I added 2nd ..

The 1st set initial risk 2.5 % (50 pips).

The 2nd set (once price move 30 pips and stop set to +1 on 1st set) was added with 2.5% risk .

Once the stop was moved down tp +1 on 1st set risk was mitigated unless we got Gordon Brown 200 pip candle

200 k account needed not 1 mil . If you take the best trade set ups and are sure of the analysis the risk is not to bad if .

Typically risk is 1.5 % per trade (50 pips ) so i try to let the trades run 100 pip , then...
We're all different.

20 lots risking 50 pips is about a $11k loss or just over 5% on a $200k account. 20 losing trades like that and your done.
  • #180,893
  • Jun 4, 2009 5:46pm Jun 4, 2009 5:46pm
some are going to look at last post and say 50 pip stop .... you would get stopped out all the time on GJ. i sued to think this also

I am not one to rush into the market just because . i can often get good sets ups that give me next to no draw down ( may be 20 - 30 pips )

here is an example of one using volume (vsa) , indies (rsx 0 and high volume pivots of previous trading session. The x/8 lines you see on the charts are Murray math lines

I came to the party late and got in a sell at 156.25 as this was my 4/8 murrey math level of yesterday on 4 hour and 4/8 on 15 min today. the 4/8th line is pivotal line in Murrey math . This trade i had max 17 pip draw down , closed at 155.70

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  • #180,894
  • Jun 4, 2009 5:49pm Jun 4, 2009 5:49pm
Quoting sleep1Iopen
We're all different.

20 lots risking 50 pips is about a $11k loss or just over 5% on a $200k account. 20 losing trades like that and your done.
10 lots had stop at be +1 before next 10 lots were entered. Price had moved down 30 pips

each had 50 pip risk ( about 5 k )

I did say max risk was 2.5 % on each trade and that is overleveraged for me. 1 st 10 lots had stop at +1 before next 10 lots entered , so there was only EVER 2.5 % risk on account

I was very sure of target as got a very clear set up . I just did not do my typical take profit with 50 - 100 pips as was being greedy.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #180,895
  • Jun 4, 2009 5:58pm Jun 4, 2009 5:58pm
Like i said earlier.for reversal on weekly.. We should have a pin bar which should sit between 155- 154 level....or in order to get a reversal Doji.. price should go to 151.53.. then pull back to 154.00.. should happen tonight...if this thing is gonna reverse..IMO..

But before break this 155.50 level already..

LOOKS like its breaking on 1 Hr as we speak.. I have a feeling it might go back up once more to get those weak shorts out..there is still Bullish Divergence left..
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #180,896
  • Jun 4, 2009 6:02pm Jun 4, 2009 6:02pm
Quoting sleep1Iopen
We're all different.

20 lots risking 50 pips is about a $11k loss or just over 5% on a $200k account. 20 losing trades like that and your done.

More than 6 losing trades in a row one had better stop trading live and look at your method of trading . Maybe even go back to demo trading . In a day trader's world where we can do 5 - 15 trades a day one had better have a proven system otherwise you can blow your account up in a heart beat

Even at 50 % losers versus winners in 6 trades you should have 2 profitable ones if your trading methods work.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #180,897
  • Jun 4, 2009 6:04pm Jun 4, 2009 6:04pm
Quoting Raza
Like i said earlier.for reversal on weekly.. We should have a pin bar which should sit between 155- 154 level....or in order to get a reversal Doji.. price should go to 151.53.. then pull back to 154.00.. should happen tonight...if this thing is gonna reverse..IMO..

But before break this 155.50 level already..

LOOKS like its breaking on 1 Hr as we speak.. I have a feeling it might go back up once more to get those weak shorts out..there is still Bullish Divergence left..

15 min rsx is really low .. i see some form of up move in Asia. However the ES ended up ... so nikkei could gap and often as that gap closes to down side gj tends to move down with it.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #180,898
  • Jun 4, 2009 6:10pm Jun 4, 2009 6:10pm
FXCM are the biggest crooks in the business... ditch them fast. I'm with FX Solutions & no problems (I was with FXCM and learned the hard way...)
Lots of other good brokers .. don't stay with a dishonest one & lose money!

Quoting fxbillie
The down spike in GBPUSD this morning must be a wicked one. I longed it last night and set the stop loss to break even when the trade was 40 pips in profit. Went to sleep afterwards. Woke up this morning to a shock. My broker (FXCM) charged me 135 pips loss per lot below my stop, claiming the reason of slippage in news announcement. I can understand 30, even 50 pips slippage. But 135 pips is unheard of. Does anybody out there get hit with this slippage?

This totally takes away the peace of mind I have for stop loss and for leaving a trade open...
******************* I'd rather make money than be right.
  • #180,899
  • Jun 4, 2009 6:14pm Jun 4, 2009 6:14pm
H&S on 15m ?
  • #180,900
  • Jun 4, 2009 6:14pm Jun 4, 2009 6:14pm
Quoting 4xStar
FXCM are the biggest crooks in the business... ditch them fast. I'm with FX Solutions & no problems (I was with FXCM and learned the hard way...)
Lots of other good brokers .. don't stay with a dishonest one & lose money!
They all are bunch of crroks..I think CurrencyExchange .. guy had similar problem of 60 pips.
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
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