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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #180,861
  • Jun 4, 2009 10:30am Jun 4, 2009 10:30am
All pairs seem to be going up on lower volume at this point. Hopefully a short opportunity will come our way during Asia . . .
"Don't trade to trade . . . trade to win." - James16
  • #180,862
  • Jun 4, 2009 11:17am Jun 4, 2009 11:17am
I think we have to wait now for the EP election results to see how bad Labour has done. I think Brown's faith will depend on these results, so he
might resign tonight........
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  • #180,863
  • Jun 4, 2009 11:50am Jun 4, 2009 11:50am
Anybody have a realistic, guesstimate as to where this is headed? My head is burned out from looking at charts I haven't a clue anymore. It's been more of a dart game lately and I keep missing the board. 50/50 chance and keep gettiing the ugly girl.
  • #180,864
  • Jun 4, 2009 11:56am Jun 4, 2009 11:56am
GJ is en route to 157.86 .
Attached Image
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #180,865
  • Jun 4, 2009 11:56am Jun 4, 2009 11:56am
For those folks that use the Better Volume indicator,
I found this manual for it.
The file in in the PDF format.
I hope it helps.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Better_Volume_Indicator.pdf   322 KB | 913 downloads
I trade what I see on my charts. Do Not listen to the Muppets.
  • #180,866
  • Jun 4, 2009 12:11pm Jun 4, 2009 12:11pm
Quoting GlobalMacro
GJ is en route to 157.86 .

That's a descending triangle which indicates downwrad continuation
  • #180,867
  • Jun 4, 2009 12:29pm Jun 4, 2009 12:29pm
Quoting currencyexch
That's a descending triangle which indicates downwrad continuation
Yes, that's correct, but please pay attention to the false breakout of the lower side and subsequent reentry as well.
If you go back and research patterns of this nature, you'll find good chance of price testing the opposite side of the triangle.
Therefore, 155.99 was a low-risk long entry for a viable objective of 157.86.
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #180,868
  • Jun 4, 2009 12:33pm Jun 4, 2009 12:33pm
Quoting GlobalMacro
Yes, that's correct, but please pay attention to the false breakout of the lower side and subsequent reentry as well.
If you go back and research patterns of this nature, you'll find good chance of price testing the opposite side of the triangle.
Therefore, 155.99 was a low-risk long entry for a viable objective of 157.86.

Then it makes sense for it to retrace for re-eentry to go long. 61% will put it at 1.5601 which also makes sense and may happen as gittery as some people may be, sorta to shack the tree for more fruit. And it will confirm if it was a false breakout or not, but the chart pattern is similar when it broke the trend line a month and half ago
  • #180,869
  • Jun 4, 2009 12:38pm Jun 4, 2009 12:38pm
there is no place like 192.168.0.0
Time flies like an arrow; fruit flies like a banana.
  • #180,870
  • Edited 3:02pm Jun 4, 2009 12:49pm | Edited 3:02pm
A while back I called out 158-164 when geppy was at the 139-143 levels. Now price has hit the harmonic resistance TL which should cause some instability in yen crosses all together as risk aversion comes back. Previous resistances which could now become supports are 150-151, 141, & 125-118. Below those and we could see another leg to the downside - possibly sub 100. So, risk:reward is on the short side from here. The big money ( GS, Citi, HSBC, etc... ) has closed most, if not all, of their long pound and euro positions.

Good luck and T.A.Y.O.R.

I'm sure there will be arguments over correct TL positioning, so to squash that; they are more of zones to calculate proper risk:reward trades.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp.jpy weekly.jpg Size: 112 KB
  • #180,871
  • Jun 4, 2009 1:30pm Jun 4, 2009 1:30pm
The down spike in GBPUSD this morning must be a wicked one. I longed it last night and set the stop loss to break even when the trade was 40 pips in profit. Went to sleep afterwards. Woke up this morning to a shock. My broker (FXCM) charged me 135 pips loss per lot below my stop, claiming the reason of slippage in news announcement. I can understand 30, even 50 pips slippage. But 135 pips is unheard of. Does anybody out there get hit with this slippage?

This totally takes away the peace of mind I have for stop loss and for leaving a trade open during news hours. I am looking for a broker who gives 100% slippage protection. Any recommendations?

Thanks.
  • #180,872
  • Jun 4, 2009 1:57pm Jun 4, 2009 1:57pm
Quoting fxbillie
The down spike in GBPUSD this morning must be a wicked one. I longed it last night and set the stop loss to break even when the trade was 40 pips in profit. Went to sleep afterwards. Woke up this morning to a shock. My broker (FXCM) charged me 135 pips loss per lot below my stop, claiming the reason of slippage in news announcement. I can understand 30, even 50 pips slippage. But 135 pips is unheard of. Does anybody out there get hit with this slippage?

This totally takes away the peace of mind I have for stop loss and for leaving a trade open...

my idea is for u to get a broker that use fix spread even when news come in the spread will not change....fxopen is okay but they give new quote..but fxpro also use floating spread but they are nice since i like mt4 brokers.
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #180,873
  • Jun 4, 2009 2:04pm Jun 4, 2009 2:04pm
Quoting fxbillie
The down spike in GBPUSD this morning must be a wicked one. I longed it last night and set the stop loss to break even when the trade was 40 pips in profit. Went to sleep afterwards. Woke up this morning to a shock. My broker (FXCM) charged me 135 pips loss per lot below my stop, claiming the reason of slippage in news announcement. I can understand 30, even 50 pips slippage. But 135 pips is unheard of. Does anybody out there get hit with this slippage?

This totally takes away the peace of mind I have for stop loss and for leaving a trade open...
Get a currency futures broker instead of spot with segregated accounts. FXCM are huge crooks and most of their old employees know it.
  • #180,874
  • Jun 4, 2009 2:08pm Jun 4, 2009 2:08pm
Quoting sleep1Iopen
A while back I called out 158-164 when geppy was at the 139-143 levels. Now price has hit the harmonic resistance TL which should cause some instability in yen crosses all together as risk aversion comes back. Previous supports which could now become resistance are 150-151, 141, & 125-118. Below those and we could see another leg to the downside - possibly sub 100. So, risk:reward is on the short side from here. The big money ( GS, Citi, HSBC, etc... ) has closed most, if not all, of their long pound and euro positions.

Good luck and T.A.Y.O.R....
newer traders note this .... the use of zones. I have often spoken to new traders that say support is 155.6578790 ..lol ( ok that is an exageration) , support is in the 155.5 zone ( meaning that within a percentage of the exact number you should be looking for reversals) .

I forgot this simple rule last night in London session when Gj came down to 155.85 , but pivot low was 155.67 . I was expecting price to hit exactly support. I had 20 lots on 2 trades both with nice profit and stops set at break even , what was a 120 and 90 pips trade on 20 lots turned out to be +1 on both as ignored the simple rules that support / resistance and trendlines are ' zones ' . There was an excellent article in stocks and commodities magazine about 4 years ago on this subject
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #180,875
  • Jun 4, 2009 2:14pm Jun 4, 2009 2:14pm
Quoting malcolmb14
newer traders note this .... the use of zones. I have often spoken to new traders that say support is 155.6578790 ..lol ( ok that is an exageration) , support is in the 155.5 zone ( meaning that within a percentage of the exact number you should be looking for reversals) .

I forgot this simple rule last night in London session when Gj came down to 155.85 , but pivot low was 155.67 . I was expecting price to hit exactly support. I had 20 lots on 2 trades both with nice profit and stops set at break even , what was a 120 and 90 pips trade on 20...
Nice Malcom.... 20 Standard Lot you traded?
  • #180,876
  • Jun 4, 2009 2:15pm Jun 4, 2009 2:15pm
Quoting fxbillie
The down spike in GBPUSD this morning must be a wicked one. I longed it last night and set the stop loss to break even when the trade was 40 pips in profit. Went to sleep afterwards. Woke up this morning to a shock. My broker (FXCM) charged me 135 pips loss per lot below my stop, claiming the reason of slippage in news announcement. I can understand 30, even 50 pips slippage. But 135 pips is unheard of. Does anybody out there get hit with this slippage?

This totally takes away the peace of mind I have for stop loss and for leaving a trade open...

I have been there done that . I have told many news traders that stops do not work in some situations. The 250 spike down in GJ this morning was one of those times. They always tell me I do not know what I am talking about

There are some services that offer guaranteed stops but they charge 1.5 % of trade CMC is one of them
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #180,877
  • Jun 4, 2009 2:20pm Jun 4, 2009 2:20pm
Quoting donfriday
my idea is for u to get a broker that use fix spread even when news come in the spread will not change....fxopen is okay but they give new quote..but fxpro also use floating spread but they are nice since i like mt4 brokers.

it is not spread .... that drop happened in milliseconds ... by the time the order hit the server the price had moved 140 pips lower.


Most stops work that they execute at a certain price and often market is nopt moving that fast that they do not get slippage. In this case the stop was triggered , order sent to server , hit the server the server said sell at market . This likely took the millisecond that the price moved 135 pips lower.

One way is not stops.....no good.

Other way is to have stop with limit of x amount of pips either way of stop price. Mine is 6 pips within stop price , so my max slippage should be 6 pips
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #180,878
  • Jun 4, 2009 2:25pm Jun 4, 2009 2:25pm
Quoting dreed
Nice Malcom.... 20 Standard Lot you traded?
i was last night .. very bearish .. was hoping to make it big ...lol. Thankfully i had stops at break even , but to see my profit gobbled up was frustrating. I would have typically closed both trades with nice proft but greed got the better part of me . I could have sworn it was going to drop to 153. ....so many things I did wrong on that trade.

1) did not take partial profit
2) was so married one way ignored the clear bull div on 15 min rsx before move up
3) was being greedy.

I tpically only trade 5 to 10 lots
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #180,879
  • Jun 4, 2009 2:29pm Jun 4, 2009 2:29pm
My tick database's showing a drop sub 1Min so next tick was lower 109 pips. During announcements there is sometimes no Bid in the market on EBS or Reuters something like this could happen. Question is though if they're really offsetting the trades in the interbank market. Another way to check this is to see what happened in currency futures.
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #180,880
  • Jun 4, 2009 2:33pm Jun 4, 2009 2:33pm
Another UK government minister has resigned tonight immediately after the local elections.

This is huge news and may prove very bearish for Sterling in the short term.

Bulls beware.
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