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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #32,241
  • Edited 10:00am Jun 4, 2009 9:38am | Edited 10:00am
Quoting Ryanmcd
What I do and I am no pro on the longer times, is I put a stop above the high of the 2d PB, any place else to me is high risk. If you wanted to try to reduce some risk you can wait for a re-trace into the pib or say 38% or 50% but then you may miss it.


What I am thinking of doing is getting into the pin, if it does a retrace I will add into it.
Hi Ryan

Check out Raczekfx's posts for trading retraces of pins etc. Jarroo is great when it comes to hard breakouts.

Quoting raczekfx
after daily beovb break wait for 38/50 fib and ppz retr. (confluence) stop above 61, short, boooom....
WARNING: Don't follow me as I'm just learning
  • #32,242
  • Jun 4, 2009 9:39am Jun 4, 2009 9:39am
Quoting raczekfx
after daily beovb break wait for 38/50 fib and ppz retr. (confluence) stop above 61, short, boooom....
It is very sophisticated. Would u use the same approach with the PBs or IBs?
And what if the price breaks BEOB and reaches first resistance area before she retraces to CONFLUENCE, would you still enter?
Thank you.
  • #32,243
  • Jun 4, 2009 10:07am Jun 4, 2009 10:07am
Quoting datogio
on real account im trading conservatively, always placing the stoploss above or below the PA. but with 40 pip stop approach i want to catch some monsters that would overcome all my loser and BE trades per year. one of them was usd/cad daily pin on 21.04.2009 that produced 80% profit with trailing stops in a month.

I just want to achieve consistency, closing half of the position at the first target, over all break even would be acceptable too, and just wait for the monster ones.

That's my concept.

Yep it all come back to MM, if your winning trades make 5-6x as much as the losers it work as long as the losers are no less then say 75%ish. My goal is to keep a 40-50% winning rate on whatever I do and let MM take care of the rest.
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #32,244
  • Jun 4, 2009 10:27am Jun 4, 2009 10:27am
Quoting Ryanmcd
Yep it all come back to MM, if your winning trades make 5-6x as much as the losers it work as long as the losers are no less then say 75%ish. My goal is to keep a 40-50% winning rate on whatever I do and let MM take care of the rest.
I think its quite possible to achieve small profits 70%-80% of the time at the first target and trail the rest of the position with stops. say 20 pip first target could generate 1% growth in 80% cases. that would generate 80% growth with 40% draw down per 100 trades. overall 40% gain only if position gets to the first target and then back to BE.
  • #32,245
  • Jun 4, 2009 10:38am Jun 4, 2009 10:38am
Quoting datogio
I think its quite possible to achieve small profits 70%-80% of the time at the first target and trail the rest of the position with stops. say 20 pip first target could generate 1% growth in 80% cases. that would generate 80% growth with 40% draw down per 100 trades. overall 40% gain only if position gets to the first target and then back to BE.

I don't think you are thinking right, if 20 pips =1% 40 is going to be 2%. How many positions are you talking?

If you have 2 positions with 2% risk total, so 40 pips per position = 1%, if you take +1% @ 40 and stop @ cost and you look for +80 making it 3% then it's a 1:1 trade IF it works, looking for 80% winners is unrealistic, if that was the case I would risk 20% per trade and make a few million a month. Be realistic.
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #32,246
  • Jun 4, 2009 10:53am Jun 4, 2009 10:53am
Quoting jarroo
+ 365 ema, . . The power of mutli confluences. and a crystal ball. lol
+ 365 ema, . . The power of multi confluences. and "The images" in the crystal ball".

Darn it Jim, you missed the point.

Mark impulsively blurted out his secret remember.

I believe . . .
  • #32,247
  • Jun 4, 2009 10:56am Jun 4, 2009 10:56am
Quoting Ryanmcd
I don't think you are thinking right, if 20 pips =1% 40 is going to be 2%. How many positions are you talking?

If you have 2 positions with 2% risk total, so 40 pips per position = 1%, if you take +1% @ 40 and stop @ cost and you look for +80 making it 3% then it's a 1:1 trade IF it works, looking for 80% winners is unrealistic, if that was the case I would risk 20% per trade and make a few million a month. Be realistic.
yes you're right then I'll have to target 40 pip. anyway i think ill find some balance based on research.

thanks a lot
  • #32,248
  • Jun 4, 2009 11:28am Jun 4, 2009 11:28am
Two consecutive lows breaking out. Im not happy with my entry but then my stops are fashion to take care of such noise we had 2day
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  • #32,249
  • Edited 11:49am Jun 4, 2009 11:34am | Edited 11:49am
Quoting g_j_hook@yah
do you also enter at the break or just miss the trade if there is no retrace??
..
No, I didn't setup limit order with anticipation of a break this time. If there was no retrace I would simply miss the trade.
I will however be on a weekly pin break if it 'shows up'

Quoting alter
It is very sophisticated. Would u use the same approach with the PBs or IBs?
And what if the price breaks BEOB and reaches first resistance area before she retraces to CONFLUENCE, would you still enter?
Thank you.
Not sophisticated.. It's a simple trading plan that takes into account break of bar setups and retrace to confluence area. Pins yes, IBs no (don't trade them). I thought about setting up limit sell for two day pin break on fiber, but price was too close to my target(short) and reverse area (I had outstanding buy limit for fiber waiting at 1.4040)
I was however short fiber (in asia) with limit sell at 1.4210, stop above 1.4275 (I conversed with Ikki last night when price was hoovering around 1.4180 and mentioned that I'm going to short certain crosses if price moves up 30 more pips)
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  • #32,250
  • Jun 4, 2009 11:34am Jun 4, 2009 11:34am
Quoting wwtravel
Looking to take a buy position on this pair. Here is what's going through my head...

Reason for taking a buy position:
- Price moved far away from both TL1 and TL2
- Price reacted to the support area.
- Monday's pinbar touching 1.080 support area. (This is not a very good pinbar)
- Yesterday's BUB engulping almost 3 previous bars.

Reason for hesitation
- Going against the trend
- May reverse after hitting TL1
- R:R ratio is only 1:1 to my first target of 1.1470

My Trade plan:
- Wait for the price to retrace to 38 fib area of BUB, 1.100.
-...
OK, My pending buy order got triggered over night.
I'm in @ 1.0970. My original plan was to get in at 38 fib, but I decided to opt for 50% fib trace which is also a minor price confluence area.

Now, I just need to manage my trade.... will see what happens.
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  • #32,251
  • Jun 4, 2009 12:27pm Jun 4, 2009 12:27pm
Posted that in the wrong place woops . . .
"Don't trade to trade . . . trade to win." - James16
  • #32,252
  • Jun 4, 2009 12:55pm Jun 4, 2009 12:55pm
Quoting jarroo
Hey fxp have you ever tried a muti-time frame moving average? It shows for example, a 365 ema on the Daily on the 4 hour, Hourly or whatever time frame.
Hi mate.

Sorry for delay. Is it a custom indi? If yes I would like to try.

cheers

FXP
  • #32,253
  • Jun 4, 2009 1:32pm Jun 4, 2009 1:32pm
Quoting fxprocessor
Hi mate.

Sorry for delay. Is it a custom indi? If yes I would like to try.

cheers

FXP
I'll post it up. It won't be for a while, not at my home computer.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #32,254
  • Jun 4, 2009 1:45pm Jun 4, 2009 1:45pm
Quoting jarroo
I'll post it up. It won't be for a while, not at my home computer.
Cool, cheers

I always like your charts so happy to try anything you rate.

-----------------

To update my previous post: I closed 3/4 of my retrace entry on GBPUSD at 2:1 RR and BE SL set on the rest.

The other position still has original stop loss at 1.6015.

It has been a good few weeks since my last trade as no suitable opportunity so always nice to lock some profit.

Time to crawl back into my hole and wait for the next opportunity. I will surface again in a couple of weeks no doubt.

FXP
  • #32,255
  • Jun 4, 2009 1:47pm Jun 4, 2009 1:47pm
Quoting jarroo
Hey fxp have you ever tried a muti-time frame moving average? It shows for example, a 365 ema on the Daily on the 4 hour, Hourly or whatever time frame.
Let me re-word this. It will show, for example, the location of the Daily 365 ema on the 4 four, 1 hour, what ever time frame.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #32,256
  • Jun 4, 2009 1:51pm Jun 4, 2009 1:51pm
Quoting fxprocessor
Cool, cheers

I always like your charts so happy to try anything you rate.

-----------------

To update my previous post: I closed 3/4 of my retrace entry on GBPUSD at 2:1 RR and BE SL set on the rest.

The other position still has original stop loss at 1.6015.

It has been a good few weeks since my last trade as no suitable opportunity so always nice to lock some profit.

Time to crawl back into my hole and wait for the next opportunity. I will surface again in a couple of weeks no doubt.

FXP
That Daily BEOB Gbp/Usd is a classic PA setup. I'm sure will see a J16 chart. Just wondering where Mike was with this one. Probably at the bank.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #32,257
  • Jun 4, 2009 2:03pm Jun 4, 2009 2:03pm
Quoting jarroo
That Daily BEOB Gbp/Usd is a classic PA setup. I'm sure will see a J16 chart. Just wondering where Mike was with this one. Probably at the bank.
have you checked out the wkly yet? lets hope gordon can think about it over the weekend.
  • #32,258
  • Jun 4, 2009 2:09pm Jun 4, 2009 2:09pm
Quoting dkmb92
have you checked out the wkly yet? lets hope gordon can think about it over the weekend.

just saying Hi been trying to keep up with my emails and posts here and pf, you guys move fast! Back sunday

Mike
  • #32,259
  • Jun 4, 2009 2:12pm Jun 4, 2009 2:12pm
Quoting jarroo
That Daily BEOB Gbp/Usd is a classic PA setup. I'm sure will see a J16 chart. Just wondering where Mike was with this one. Probably at the bank.
at my brothers graduation and seeing some friends in boston, i did place this trade on my phone though after seeing all your charts here! Thanks guys!
  • #32,260
  • Edited 2:40pm Jun 4, 2009 2:24pm | Edited 2:40pm
Quote
raczekfx, No, I didn't setup limit order with anticipation of a break this time. If there was no retrace I would simply miss the trade.
I will however be on a weekly pin break if it 'shows up'
thanx rac for the insight, i was wondering why the weekly??
i was also wondering how you manage your trades? do you have hard targets related with the fibs you use?or targets set to PPZs ,R:R, or.....wot?hehe
cheers for your time
jon
EDIT: sorry one more thing, do you only measure the retrace from the bars H/L or also include the full swing (i.e measure the fib from the total move including the H/L after the break of the bar??)
iv been toying with both, thanx
PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
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