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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #19,961
  • Jun 4, 2009 6:09am Jun 4, 2009 6:09am
I closed my trades with 39$ profit in EU & GU. Not good to keep trades specially profitable trades opened during the news.
  • #19,962
  • Jun 4, 2009 6:11am Jun 4, 2009 6:11am
Quoting >Apocalypto<
great trading Nasir Khan well done!
Yes, very consistent. You should be proud of yourself. What is the fxf for in gbpusdfxf ?
  • #19,963
  • Jun 4, 2009 6:33am Jun 4, 2009 6:33am
Quoting xeneric
Yes, very consistent. You should be proud of yourself. What is the fxf for in gbpusdfxf ?
Thanks hope every one here make profit like this.

FXF i think is somthing Forex Fixed. i googled it but cant find anything maybe my broker could tell.
  • #19,964
  • Jun 4, 2009 7:41am Jun 4, 2009 7:41am
Price broke the 21 MA so I was expecting it to return to it and then contin on its way down to the 89 or supporting trend line on the 4 hr. I took profit at 3 different places. The 4 hrs and 5 min charts are below. If you want more details on the 5 min, I suggest you go to phillip's 5 min system
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 060409-5min-4hr-part 2.gif Size: 49 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 060409-5min.gif Size: 46 KB
  • #19,965
  • Jun 4, 2009 8:05am Jun 4, 2009 8:05am
Could you also post your entry level, TP level(s) and SL? Thanks.
  • #19,966
  • Jun 4, 2009 8:10am Jun 4, 2009 8:10am
Quoting Marubozu
Could you also post your entry level, TP level(s) and SL? Thanks.
Entry: 1.4161
TP1 (50%): 1.4145
TP2 (25%): 1.4115
TP3 (25%): 1.4079
  • #19,967
  • Jun 5, 2009 1:57am Jun 5, 2009 1:57am
Evening all,

There was a really good CT on the GBP/USD which I mist, would have netted you around 150 / 180 pips.

Ok anyways onto the May review:

Numbers of trades = 10
Winners = 8
Losers = 2

Hit Ratio = 80%

% return = 8.6% (monthly)

This is just to give you all an idea of the amount of trades you should be carrying out per month. Its not quantity but QUALITY

Cheers WG
  • #19,968
  • Jun 5, 2009 2:27am Jun 5, 2009 2:27am
Quoting welshguy2000
There was a really good CT on the GBP/USD which I mist, would have netted you around 150 / 180 pips.
Hi WG,

I'm relatively new to this thread. Thanks for all the trade reviews, I find them very educational.

Now for the CT trade which you missed, can you explain a bit more why it was a good trade (besides the bearish engulfing candle)? Just want to learn more about the factors that you consider when taking a CT trade. Thx.
  • #19,969
  • Jun 5, 2009 3:20am Jun 5, 2009 3:20am
hi welshguy,

When is your video about the moneymanagement coming up.

Most of the video trade you put up show the really quality entry.
No doubt about that.

Is it possible you brief abit on just a touch up on your stoploss
position for future video trade. or a video just talk about your approach
on the stoploss. and with respect to rr.

I seen some of your trade in which you had a target profit of 100pips where else your stoploss is at about 200pips. however, you mention about by just position size it. Wouldnt that give a very low profit at the end of the month. if you got some loss.

I think this is the part where your mm is different from phillip. would like to
learn and see whether it can help me in some ways. just another option for improvement.
  • #19,970
  • Edited 5:00am Jun 5, 2009 4:46am | Edited 5:00am
Quoting jinsen
hi welshguy,

When is your video about the moneymanagement coming up.

Most of the video trade you put up show the really quality entry.
No doubt about that.

Is it possible you brief abit on just a touch up on your stoploss
position for future video trade. or a video just talk about your approach
on the stoploss. and with respect to rr.

I seen some of your trade in which you had a target profit of 100pips where else your stoploss is at about 200pips. however, you mention about by just position size it. Wouldnt that give a very low profit at...
WG addressed this question in his videos. It is because his success rate is so high that he can get away with such big stops and still make money.

Take last month for example, he had 2 losses and 8 winners(see above post). Assume his average stop loss is 200 pips per trade, then in 1 month he would lose about 2 x 200 pips = 400 pips. Similarly, assume his average win is around 100 pips then in 1 month, he would gain 8 x 100 = 800 pips. Net gain over the month would then be around 600 pips.

If his success rate was lower, then it would be harder for him to make money. Assume that in one month he had 5 winners and 5 losers. Taking the figures from above, he would make 5x100=500 pips and he would lose 5x200=1000 pips which would make an overall loss per month of 500 pips.

It is because his success rate is so high (at around 80% last month) that he can use large stops and still make a profit overall.

Also WG mentioned that he often closes his trades early if they are unsuccessful before they hit their stop.

I hope that helps.
  • #19,971
  • Jun 5, 2009 4:57am Jun 5, 2009 4:57am
^^This only provided he lets all his losing trades hit the SL, which I doubt he does. If he sees he made a mistake than most likely he can close the position when it is halfway through to the SL level I guess.

He clearly stated he uses SLs for preventing a "catastrophic" loss, not for deciding whether the trade is good or bad.
  • #19,972
  • Edited 5:35am Jun 5, 2009 5:10am | Edited 5:35am
Quoting Marubozu
^^This only provided he lets all his losing trades hit the SL, which I doubt he does. If he sees he made a mistake than most likely he can close the position when it is halfway through to the SL level I guess.

He clearly stated he uses SLs for preventing a "catastrophic" loss, not for deciding whether the trade is good or bad.
YES. I hope that WG gives us extra marks for learning our lessons so well.
  • #19,973
  • Edited 6:10am Jun 5, 2009 5:49am | Edited 6:10am
Hi, look at EURUSD on 4h chart, I thing there is now good signal to sell.

Reasons:
- we have still sHs patern not finished,
- nice evening star,
- red hangin man,
- broken 21EMA,
- very weak MACD signal.

I'm go in now.
SL = 1.4228
Tp = 1.4108
in at open candle

RR = 1 for me.
  • #19,974
  • Jun 5, 2009 6:16am Jun 5, 2009 6:16am
Quoting xeneric
WG addressed this question in his videos. It is because his success rate is so high that he can get away with such big stops and still make money.

Take last month for example, he had 2 losses and 8 winners(see above post). Assume his average stop loss is 200 pips per trade, then in 1 month he would lose about 2 x 200 pips = 400 pips. Similarly, assume his average win is around 100 pips then in 1 month, he would gain 8 x 100 = 800 pips. Net gain over the month would then be around 600 pips.

If his success rate was lower, then it would be harder...
Thanks alot. i understand better now.

i read through the posts(not all but up to a few hundred) and it seem phillip put his stoploss on a position where the stoploss is always not soo high. It is way lesser than 100pips. I mean why welsh dont want to put the stoploss in that kind of position. It definetely give better returns in terms of position sizing rather than more than 100pips. This the part i also dont understand. Is it that the position
is not reliable anymore and tends to be whipsaw before it continues its trend. And thats is why welsh put the stoploss way below last hl or lh position. help me one more time.
  • #19,975
  • Jun 5, 2009 6:35am Jun 5, 2009 6:35am
Quoting jinsen
Thanks alot. i understand better now.

i read through the posts(not all but up to a few hundred) and it seem phillip put his stoploss on a position where the stoploss is always not soo high. It is way lesser than 100pips. I mean why welsh dont want to put the stoploss in that kind of position. It definetely give better returns in terms of position sizing rather than more than 100pips. This the part i also dont understand. Is it that the position
is not reliable anymore and tends to be whipsaw before it continues its trend. And thats is why welsh...
I have to leave this question for WG to answer because I can't speak for him except to say that Phillip and WG have different attitudes about stops. Phillip would deliberately avoid taking any trades which had stops more than 50 pips. However the markets are also more volatile these days since the world economic problems.
  • #19,976
  • Jun 5, 2009 6:37am Jun 5, 2009 6:37am
Quoting Kamil2079
Hi, look at EURUSD on 4h chart, I thing there is now good signal to sell.

Reasons:
- we have still sHs patern not finished,
- nice evening star,
- red hangin man,
- broken 21EMA,
- very weak MACD signal.

I'm go in now.
SL = 1.4228
Tp = 1.4108
in at open candle

RR = 1 for me.
Why are you taking a trade so close to the release of Non Farm Payroll ? It could be very risky.
  • #19,977
  • Jun 5, 2009 6:53am Jun 5, 2009 6:53am
Quoting xeneric
Why are you taking a trade so close to the release of Non Farm Payroll ? It could be very risky.
Cause, in my opinion Non Farm Payroll will be good for USD
  • #19,978
  • Jun 5, 2009 6:55am Jun 5, 2009 6:55am
Quoting Kamil2079
Cause, in my opinion Non Farm Payroll will be good for USD
i dont see your hanging man or break of the 21ema.... lots of small insignificant candles it looks like for today
Grabbing the bull by the horns!
  • #19,979
  • Jun 5, 2009 7:06am Jun 5, 2009 7:06am
Quoting whitegoodman
i dont see your hanging man or break of the 21ema.... lots of small insignificant candles it looks like for today
This is my chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4hchart.JPG Size: 124 KB
  • #19,980
  • Jun 5, 2009 7:18am Jun 5, 2009 7:18am
Kamil2079, next time please post a chart. I can't see your claimed hanging man. What broker are you using? (Ok, I see you've posted the chart now)

That's more of a spinner than a hanging man to me.

Anyway, I wouldn't have gotten involved there (in fact I don't trade today, being Friday and Non-farm day), and regarding your interpretation of the news, or more precisely your anticipation and interpretation of the news, please remember these key points:

1) you're not trading news here, you're using a system that is not based on news trading (at least if you're using Phillip's 4H MACD system that is); if you want to combine them... no problem, but it's not the same system;

2) I'd advise you not to bother too much with interpreting news, since this is not what this system is all about. Let the big boys do that for you and wait for direction, then jump in if you see fit (as per the rules);

3) pay attention when the MAs get tangled up like they are now; look at that and at the candles... there's no clear direction (yet) or as Phillip would put it "they don't know which way to go".

Granted, I made the same mistakes you're doing now. If you're trading this on demo then sure... experiment, no problem, but remember the above points anyway. Happy pipping and welcome of FF!
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