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Tony's Two Candle trading system

  • #81
  • Jun 3, 2009 12:48pm Jun 3, 2009 12:48pm
Note that I don't claim that this system is unprofitable. The curves only show what results simple rules that I specified in my posts [I might even have misunderstood something] give. With discretion this system could very well be profitable.
  • #82
  • Jun 3, 2009 1:32pm Jun 3, 2009 1:32pm
tony......
do you need to wait for another opposite candle after you tp on second candle or just use second candle as first candle on next set up? hope i explain that ok....
thanks
  • #83
  • Jun 3, 2009 1:38pm Jun 3, 2009 1:38pm
Quoting pipchaser1
tony......
do you need to wait for another opposite candle after you tp on second candle or just use second candle as first candle on next set up? hope i explain that ok....
thanks
Its just common sense myfriend, if buyers or sellers pushed a candle and the next candle starts to form bearish or bullish due to the previous buy/sell pressure, so you take a trade to make some instant 10-20pip gain.

After that you need to either break even if you haven't taken profit due to a chance that a 3rd candle will go in your direction or wait for an opposite candle and a new setup from there.
prepare for worst & expect the best
  • #84
  • Jun 3, 2009 7:11pm Jun 3, 2009 7:11pm
Quoting fugly
Razor you have to understand simple doesn't necessarily mean long term profitable. Sure its simple and its very large hearted of Tony to post it and yes I assume he's been profitable with it thats why he's posting it but for how long has he been trading it? To even consider trading a system its very important to back test to see how its done in the past more importantly the immediate past. How do you know its not a lucky streak?

I agree that far too many people want answers before they are prepared to look for them but unfortunately none of the...
Heres the thing. People want systems that have long term, utimate profitability and very little loss over long periods. NOTHING will guarentee that, NOTHING has a long term, 100% always positive profit. You could have a very very good year, or 2 or 3 but you can bet that you will also have some lean years.

Traders fail because they cannot compute this, they never want to loose, only ever want to win. This is why when you look back on the 95% of people on this forum you can guarentee that there posts are all over the place asking the same questions. WHY? Because they are looking for the HG and the 100% win rate that doubles, triples accounts over a short period. It aint going to happen. The strategys, Methods, Systems that promise this fall down big time in the end. You have great solid returns, dont understand it ultimatly and watch your account go bye bye when multiple trades dont work.

Simple systems have a great chance at working because people can follow them easily, therefore identify setups during backtesting and being able to implement with ease during the now trading. Whilst I understand backtesting it is not a sure thing for something in the future and too much emphasis is placed on the success of backtesting, or the failure. If people trialled it on a demo they would get to know first hand whether a setup like this is good for them.

Simple is simple. If your a trader that would prefer Stocastics, RSI, 14 different Moving averages, Bollinger Bands, TL, S/R with Gann fans and FIBs then tie that in with rediculous rules to define when to trade and not, then hey knock yourself out. BIG players trade simpler, they dont have time to play games with lagging indicators. Some of the charts and setups I have read about are more difficult to comprehend than the Bible (no offense).

You cannot talk of future profit without first knowing the future, regardless of the system, and if your afraid of long term profitability then this is not the arena for you. People who are this way need to get a full time job and that is it (I still work full time job but not because I dont understand how things work). IF your sole goal is to find something that has is going to work in all weather then your kidding yourself. Traders understand drawdown periods, traders also understand that chopping and changing when things dont work out will usually lead down that darker path. This is a random arena, and despite the know how and rules, alot of the time the market does its random thing.

BTW this is a reply to an overall thread not to your personally. Your points are valid, I just thought I would add information that has been posted for Eons yet few people are prepared to acknowledge

Razor
  • #85
  • Jun 3, 2009 8:59pm Jun 3, 2009 8:59pm
Quoting mikkom
Note that I don't claim that this system is unprofitable. The curves only show what results simple rules that I specified in my posts [I might even have misunderstood something] give. With discretion this system could very well be profitable.
There we go. As i said earlier EA will ruin the party.
  • #86
  • Jun 3, 2009 9:01pm Jun 3, 2009 9:01pm
Quoting tony_dtrader
if you want 99% win ratio, go with 10pip tp.
if you want 80% win ratio, go with 20pip tp.

anyways tp at close of second candle sometimes very rewarding, usually at start of London and new York sessions and news hours.
Quoting tony_dtrader
Hi, The stoploss is just for protection purposes, in event the market suddenly turns a 100 pip against you, you could exit off with a limited loss.

Ideally you should exit if the price moves 5-10 pips against you and accept the tiny loss instead of a big one. There are many more opportunities that will arrive again, so you can try again.

The old saying, cut off the losers and let run the winners.

Remember its a 2 candle strategy and not a 3-4-6-8 candle strategy, but if you feel it could trend more, its best to break even the trade...
Quoting forexisfx
Guess what ? This system has both install for you. According to tony, TP of 20 gives about 80% winning rate. Also, tony mention that we have to close the trade if it's 5 - 10 pips against us. With TP of 20 and SL of 5-10, we have both 80% chance of winning and a 2:1 RR. Fantastic isn't it ? Nothing can beat that.

Guys to recap.
  • #87
  • Jun 3, 2009 9:19pm Jun 3, 2009 9:19pm
Wouldn't it be nice if someone discovered a method that back tested 100% profitable since the beginning of time? And they shared it with us.

Of course some would ask what about next month, next year. Will it still be profitable then? Can it be counted on in real time?

I might have to do some work. Some thinking.

Wouldn't it be nice if all one had to do is push a button once and live happily ever after on the profits of that task?
  • #88
  • Edited 11:04pm Jun 3, 2009 9:40pm | Edited 11:04pm
Hey whats up, i will be demoing this for a few days to see how it goes.
Right now i am in a demo trade on UJ here are the details:

UJ: Short | Lower entry target: 96.11 | SL: 96.21 | TP: 96.01 | Spread:3

I will post a picture with the trade and future trades i do tomorrow.
Lets see how it goes. Will update on status.

Update:

I am still in the signal. A new h1 bar has just opened.
I went all the way to +6. The signal bar closed at -2 for me so i am now waiting to see what the next bar will do.

2nd Update:
Well its 12am here in new york(EST) and a new bar just poped up and i am at -5. I went all the way down to +5.
Now the last bar was a little doji so i dunno what to do. Since my stop is only -10 i will let it ride to see what happends.
Time is what keeps everything from happening "right now".
  • #89
  • Jun 3, 2009 10:18pm Jun 3, 2009 10:18pm
Quoting fugly
Razor you have to understand simple doesn't necessarily mean long term profitable. Sure its simple and its very large hearted of Tony to post it and yes I assume he's been profitable with it thats why he's posting it but for how long has he been trading it? To even consider trading a system its very important to back test to see how its done in the past more importantly the immediate past. How do you know its not a lucky streak?

I agree that far too many people want answers before they are prepared to look for them but unfortunately none of the...
so tony, could you tell us how long have you trying this system?, so people don't think when it's work,it just a lucky streak.
thx for sharing
  • #90
  • Jun 4, 2009 12:10am Jun 4, 2009 12:10am
Quoting mikkom
Note that I don't claim that this system is unprofitable. The curves only show what results simple rules that I specified in my posts [I might even have misunderstood something] give. With discretion this system could very well be profitable.
timing is also very important (can we run ea and check by sessions ?)

p.s. beauty of simple systems - it can be applied or separately or along with other systems (methods)...
  • #91
  • Jun 4, 2009 1:54am Jun 4, 2009 1:54am
nice 70pips
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  • #92
  • Jun 4, 2009 2:01am Jun 4, 2009 2:01am
nice 42pips
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  • #93
  • Jun 4, 2009 2:33am Jun 4, 2009 2:33am
Has the price alert on the above chart been posted? If not is it available? Thanks Paul
  • #94
  • Jun 4, 2009 2:34am Jun 4, 2009 2:34am
out with 75 and 50
done for now
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  • #95
  • Jun 4, 2009 2:38am Jun 4, 2009 2:38am
Quoting plind
Has the price alert on the above chart been posted? If not is it available? Thanks Paul
here you go
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 Candle_Signal.mq4   7 KB | 1,432 downloads
  • #96
  • Jun 4, 2009 2:44am Jun 4, 2009 2:44am
out with 50 and 25
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  • #97
  • Jun 4, 2009 2:58am Jun 4, 2009 2:58am
Quoting mikkom
Note that I don't claim that this system is unprofitable. The curves only show what results simple rules that I specified in my posts [I might even have misunderstood something] give. With discretion this system could very well be profitable.
yes with discretion and if it suites the PA like today on UC when the TL was already about to break
I had a couple of trades with small pos yesterday and came out all in all positiv.
A got idee is to watch the M1 and see how the trade is develloping maybee using a trailing stop as soon as trade is in profit and things like that.
U can not do this with an EA so the backtesting with EA is not very usefull.
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  • #98
  • Jun 4, 2009 5:14am Jun 4, 2009 5:14am
+10
Attached Image
Persian Gulf forever
  • #99
  • Jun 4, 2009 1:46pm Jun 4, 2009 1:46pm
Thanks Tony for the great thread. Its a break out to take small pips profit or small pips loss. To my understanding you use usd/jpy because of small spreads and a low market. I am on track with you. I like to do things mechanical and simple. That's why i like the system. Have you thought about eur/usd, gbp/usd. Just asking a question not to get off track. Looking back the last week, they had some nice pops. Profitable. I understand we start at Londons open. Do we go through until the US closes or, at the end of the London session? Made 75 pips today. done for the day.
  • #100
  • Edited 2:08pm Jun 4, 2009 2:00pm | Edited 2:08pm
Quoting smurf
Thanks Tony for the great thread. Its a break out to take small pips profit or small pips loss. To my understanding you use...
HI smurf,

You know, the answers to your questions are in the first few pages of the thread.

Not too difficult to get your answers and not ask for repetition by Tony or others.

Tony gave the hours he trades, and why he favors the USDJPY (and sometimes EURJPY) and *why not* the pairs you mention...

Come on folks, spare Tony and us all, and so you don't look foolish: read the thread.

Smurf, how about you read through the thread and compile a document of essentials (cut and paste) ? It would help you be sure for yourself, and you would provide it for others who ask without reading the thread.

How about it?

(no insult intended)

Ron
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