Thexder's journey to(ward?) freedom

Been doing a lot of sitting on sidelines lately watching all the USD related charts go straight up or down, waiting for a bounce.
A few days ago EUR USD formed a pin but it never broke and then was violated the other way and disqualified.
USD CAD also formed a pin that broke properly, suffered draw down with a risk of getting stopped the next day but then it took off finally and shot to +100, now it's holding strong. It formed as a touch of old support which gave it a better feeling after such a big drop.

The CAD fish that got away. I called the reversal of CAD ... ask johnedoe...but I didn't have my line in the water. Should put my money where .....it goes without saying.

A picture is worth a thousand words.

Another 1000 words

Thexder,

A question... did you get in at the price levels shown or somewhere else? And more importantly.... what was the reason for pulling the trigger when you did.

I got in at the break of the bars shown and the break of the bars in those locations (bars that are moving not going sideways) was the trigger. Same old stuff over and over.

Hi There,

I've been following this thread for a while, and trying to trade the same way, with some success, I just wondered how you choose an exit?

thanks,
Steve.

When I initially get in I have a target exit set somewhere that stands out as the next obstacle in the way, whether it is a distinct proven s/r level or just a single bar high/low from recent activity (hard to explain without marking up charts). So if the trade triggers while I'm away it will have a built in plan but if I catch it while it's in play I might just set to break even and try to let it run free. That usually doesn't work for me though because by trying to let it run and trying to move the stop to lock in something, I usually get taken out for much less than I would get if I just let it hit the initial target. I might have a target at a clear s/r area 250 away, see that I am up +100, so I take off the target and set to give me +40 by looking at a lower time frame for minor s/r, and then I get taken out for only +40, then it goes on to +250 and I kick myself. It's best to pick a target and leave it alone but I can't follow my own advice yet.

Here's a good example of trying to pick an exit. A two bar reversal at a high for a good short trade. I drew 2 horizontal possible targets. The first is a possible bounce point at the recent high peak but let's assume somehow we get past that and stay in the trade because it never quite reached that peak on the first try, so we held the draw down and eventually started running to the lower target line.

That target is almost +300 from entry, so once we get well into profit we try to go to a lower time frame and trail a stop behind minor peaks etc...I haven't checked how that would have looked but let's say there weren't many waves, say in a few 4 hour bars it did most of that +300 drop so we still have a stop just barely in profit or else chose a random point along the big drop to lock in profit.

Look where it went. Right to the +300 target, which if we left alone we'd have +300, but instead we get maybe half of that, maybe 1/4 of it. So I feel I know how to take entries now but I'm too smart for my own good beyond that.

Here's the 4 hour time frame view of the 2 bar daily setup. It shows a head and shoulders with a bearish outside that would have formed after a trade would have been triggered on the 2 bar daily short. If the trade had been set at break even just after going a little in profit on the daily chart, it would have been stopped out but a re-entry opportunity like this on the lower time frame would give a chance to get in and trail a stop to gain 100 to 150 after all.

The bearish outside formed at the pull back of the daily setup plus its low was engulfing all of the horizontal lows of the entire week's head/shoulder pattern so taking a break of the bar in the pull back would also clear the support.

The next obstacle would be that bar low where the initial daily short would have made it before the retracement. This could become an obstacle in the H4 second attempt at the trade, but since it's only a 4 hour chart and the trade setup occurs in the morning (Eastern time) rather than the middle of the night, it can be closely monitored and set to break even as soon as the trade goes near that bar low. And it would have just kept going this time without a retracement so the break even stop could be easily set to lock in the 100 to 150.

That's how I take second attempts at getting in on daily trades that were either missed or were stopped out prematurely.

Thanks for the reply.

There were lots of similar setups that seemed correlated and this is the one I went with. Maybe it broke out first, can't remember. I took it as a 2 bar reversal (Pring) down through a minor s/r price flip (J16) which gives a confluence of supporting a reversal from the recent down move due to the bar pattern and the location failing to make it lower through support.

I'm at break even.

Sideways market, setup at bottom support, first target +60 away easily reached and allowing break even with easy management to come.

edit. when it took off well into profit I put a trail on it and got out with +71

+340

did you take any partials on the way?

I'm all in or out with stop trailing behind momentum moves. Taking half off and then the other half later to me always seemed like a psychological trick to feel like I'm getting something rather than a financial strategy because I would be just as well to take full profit somewhere in between the two exits and get the same. If I trail the stop up so I have profit locked in it's as good as taking it out of the trade anyway except I get to stay full in.

Too easy.

Greetings Thexder.
is the james16 method a big part of your trading?
what MT4 broker/s do u use?
Thanks!

It's about 97% of the trading. THe other 3% is residual stuff I'm still trying to purge. I find even when I try to entertain new ideas and achieve the impossible (invent a new system with MAs or something) I find myself adding J16 stuff until I realize all the other things on the screen are placebos and I can do the same trades with just J16.

I only use MT4 for chart feeds and I use FXDD for that.

As I am presently in the learning mode, is there an explanation for the meteoric rise in price following the highlighted PB. It would seem as if resistance was quite strong with an excellent PB but the trade would have failed miserably.

P.S. this snapshot was July 07 - Aug 08