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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #32,101
  • Jun 3, 2009 4:59pm Jun 3, 2009 4:59pm
YES YES YES YES.

KILL IT KILL IT KILL IT.

KILL THE DAMN THING BEFORE IT KILLS YOU.

this is why i like ryan around in this thread.

Ryan dont get frustrated with the newbs.

for every one of them you help and suppress that frustration you help yourself at the same time.

i know you know that,

jim







Quoting Ryanmcd
You hit it spot on, How many people do you know that are GREAT at what they do, everyone tells them to start their own business, they do then it fails..... It's poor planing just like how people trade. I see people posting up charts with 2-300 pip bars they would have to use for a stop, can it work sure but is it going to move 2-300 more to even make it 1:1 and are you going to just take 50 pips off and be happy until you get stopped out -300?

I think in risk that's it, that's all I do when I trade so I like the CT stuff of IB's due to the lower...
  • #32,102
  • Jun 3, 2009 5:04pm Jun 3, 2009 5:04pm
Entered pending order on the break of the pin from the 1st. Almost canceled the order but decided to wait until the pin was invalidated. Glad I waited. Pretty good move today. First TP set at .9705. Second TP set at .9608. Daily divergance, 61.8 fib, long nosed pin, 365 ema resistance, round # 9800. Had a hard time resisting. 1% total risk, currently @ 1.3 %gain, so at least a 1-1 RR locked. Removed second TP to see if it will drive through the 50 fib. Probably won't do it quickly though, the 09600 is strong PPZ.

By the way, I don't post here much but I do read almost daily (have been for a while) and I have no objection to anybody's writing style. I have gained something from almost everyone who has posted to this thread. Everyone is different and if you can't handle that without criticism then maybe you should not be reading a PUBLIC forum. The least you can do is keep those negative vibes to yourself. Come on guys and gals, lets be positive. This is a great thread, won't find many like it. Either way it all comes off in the wash.
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  • #32,103
  • Jun 3, 2009 5:04pm Jun 3, 2009 5:04pm
Quoting james16
...Ryan dont get frustrated with the newbs.

for every one of them you help and suppress that frustration you help yourself at the same time.

i know you know that,

jim
Once I graduate from newb status, I'll take off my make-up and reveal my face!


K.I.S.S.
  • #32,104
  • Jun 3, 2009 5:07pm Jun 3, 2009 5:07pm
Ryan makes a good point.
Although there are a lot of newer traders in this thread looking to learn and get better so not as much real time trade posts with R:R plans etc.

Here's one I like. EURAU - BUOB at swing low, MACD divergence off a PPZ.
Risk is 2% as always for me, no R:R figured out in advance as I don't operate like that on Daily.
Looking at 1.8000-1.8100 area as a good 1st target. Will trail the trade and see how far up it goes and what price will do once it reaches that area to re-evaluate S/L and next target.

PS: I will go on the break unless I see a good entry on a lower timeframe.

CHART
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  • #32,105
  • Jun 3, 2009 5:13pm Jun 3, 2009 5:13pm
Anyone watching this?
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  • #32,106
  • Jun 3, 2009 5:34pm Jun 3, 2009 5:34pm
There is a lot of potential CT trades just now mainly beob's on the jpy and usd pairs...even though the usd/cad trade worked out for me in the end (closed out at the 365 per my plan) it has made me question CT trades more...I find I cant readily disinguish between the available CT trades at my bar close of 30 minutes ago...so not going to take any of them..I will be interested to see what others do.
All that matters is winning the week
  • #32,107
  • Jun 3, 2009 5:35pm Jun 3, 2009 5:35pm
Quoting moneybags
Ryan makes a good point.
Although there are a lot of newer traders in this thread looking to learn and get better so not as much real time trade posts with R:R plans etc.

Here's one I like. EURAUD - BUOB at swing low, MACD divergence off a PPZ.
Risk is 2% as always for me, no R:R figured out in advance as I don't operate like that on Daily.
Looking at 1.8000-1.8100 area as a good 1st target. Will trail the trade and see how far up it goes and what price will do once it reaches that area to re-evaluate S/L and next target.

PS: I will go on the...
I'm also looking at this setup. Here's what I got.

Pros
- 1.74 is a nice zone dating back a while.
- Swing low
- Huge bar relative to previous 20.

Cons
- Close was not as close to the top of the bar as it could have been.
- Some traffic to the left.
- Large bar means will take quite a move to reach 0.5R or 1R...compounding the problem of traffic to left.

I've put my targets/stop on the chart in the case I trade this. 2% risk as always. Trade gets split in 1/3rds.
TP1 - 1.8018 (0.5R) (I would probably take this near 1.80, in case it stops moving higher at that PPZ. Remainder of stops get moved up such that I have a breakeven trade as worst case.
TP2 - 1.8240. (1R) Last of stops get moved to B/E to lock in 1% gain.
TP3 - 1.8685 (2R). I would probably take this trade off around 1.86, depending on reaction to that PPZ.

Similar to Ryan, I like to know everything I can about my trade before I place it. By knowing where my targets are, I can look to see how PPZ will affect them and adjust accordingly, as shown above. What I don't like about this trade is that because of the huge bar, my stop loss is large, and so it will take quite a move to get to 1R (or even 0.5R)...That is what has me considering and probably turning this down. A different trading plan might make this work.

My current testing takes this variable into account and uses a smaller stop, similar to "Jarroo style"... Don't have results yet but should this week. Expecting win% to drop, as more trades will be stopped out, but R:R to improve, as I'll get to 1R or 3R earlier...


Josh
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  • #32,108
  • Jun 3, 2009 5:36pm Jun 3, 2009 5:36pm
Quoting james16
YES YES YES YES.

KILL IT KILL IT

Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #32,109
  • Jun 3, 2009 5:38pm Jun 3, 2009 5:38pm
Quoting Jduester
I'm also looking at this setup....
Couldn't figure out how to change the chart I posted, so here is the corrected one. Includes labels and the Stop loss. Sorry for confusion.
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  • #32,110
  • Jun 3, 2009 5:38pm Jun 3, 2009 5:38pm
Quoting Ryanmcd
Oh about killing it and going to the moon, I have had many days when the high or low was MY trade getting stopped out on the S&P e-mini lol.
When this happens, it tells me your doing it right. lol
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #32,111
  • Jun 3, 2009 5:47pm Jun 3, 2009 5:47pm
Great post J.

Quoting Jduester
Expecting win% to drop, as more trades will be stopped out, but R:R to improve, as I'll get to 1R or 3R earlier...


Josh
. . . .and yes it will. 4R . . 6R . . . 10R . .
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #32,112
  • Jun 3, 2009 5:53pm Jun 3, 2009 5:53pm
This is in my watch list. I like because the BEOB broke the round number 1.75. That orange lines are minor zones of possible reversals.

Quoting jlmac27
Anyone watching this?
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What does not kill me makes me stronger. Friedrich Nietzsche,
  • #32,113
  • Jun 3, 2009 5:54pm Jun 3, 2009 5:54pm
Something I've never understood about killing a trade if price doesn't go as you expect....

...isn't this interfering with your plan? I mean, either you have a stop in place for 1R or you don't, right? If you have a mental area where you're going to kill the trade if price doesn't do what you'd expect then isn't that just a smaller stop, albeit a mental one, for a smaller percentage risk. And doesn't it encourage emotional trading?

And it wouldn't it have meant that you would have killed yesterday's USDCAD before it had a chance to come back on you?

I am not doubting it at all. When Ryan and James16 and Jarroo all advocate something then I know it's right. I just want to understand it a little better because I've never been able to get my head round it.

Also, I take what Ryan says about big bars and small RR, but isn't that exactly how James16 trades? Half off at first target?

I think I know the answer already which is that this is a method not a system, there's no right or wrong way to do it, and everyone must test and customise to their own personality.

But I'd love to hear from you guys. I know the internet is hard to guage tone on so please don't think for a moment I am saying you guys are anything other than 100% right on this. I just need a little help getting it through my head.

Thanks.

PS Hope you don't go Ryan. Many different levels of ability here, and your posts really get me thinking a lot. I hope you find a way to get back as much from the forum as you give to it.
  • #32,114
  • Jun 3, 2009 5:57pm Jun 3, 2009 5:57pm
Quoting jlmac27
Anyone watching this?
My point of view is different.
1st chart: I dont't like last bar closed above FIB 50 of long bearish bar.
2nd chart: my TL looks a little bit different, with a totally different meaning: retracement over TL to get stronger upward impulse.
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Trading: the skill of avoiding trades
  • #32,115
  • Edited 6:10pm Jun 3, 2009 5:59pm | Edited 6:10pm
Quoting moneybags
Ryan makes a good point.
Although there are a lot of newer traders in this thread looking to learn and get better so not as much real time trade posts with R:R plans etc.

Here's one I like. EURAU - BUOB at swing low, MACD divergence off a PPZ.
Risk is 2% as always for me, no R:R figured out in advance as I don't operate like that on Daily.
Looking at 1.8000-1.8100 area as a good 1st target. Will trail the trade and see how far up it goes and what price will do once it reaches that area to re-evaluate S/L and next target.

PS: I will go on the...
Liking this one moneybags and Josh. 1.7500 at the previous bar high area could be an aggressive entry (tight stops) . . . that's if it gets there.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #32,116
  • Jun 3, 2009 6:00pm Jun 3, 2009 6:00pm
Looking to take a buy position on this pair. Here is what's going through my head...

Reason for taking a buy position:
- Price moved far away from both TL1 and TL2
- Price reacted to the support area.
- Monday's pinbar touching 1.080 support area. (This is not a very good pinbar)
- Yesterday's BUB engulping almost 3 previous bars.

Reason for hesitation
- Going against the trend
- May reverse after hitting TL1
- R:R ratio is only 1:1 to my first target of 1.1470

My Trade plan:
- Wait for the price to retrace to 38 fib area of BUB, 1.100.
- Enter a buy order near 1.100 with S/L at 1.075 and 1st target at 1.147.
- Look for price action on 4h chart when the price gets near TL1
- If price breaks the 1st target convincingly, look for 2nd target at 1.1760 area.

Let me know what you guys think.
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  • #32,117
  • Jun 3, 2009 6:06pm Jun 3, 2009 6:06pm
Quoting wwtravel
Looking to take a buy position on this pair....
I like the way you plan and explain your trades.
That takes time, but is worth it.
Trading: the skill of avoiding trades
  • #32,118
  • Jun 3, 2009 6:27pm Jun 3, 2009 6:27pm
Quoting TiaForex
Something I've never understood about killing a trade if price doesn't go as you expect....

...isn't this interfering with your plan? I mean, either you have a stop in place for 1R or you don't, right? If you have a mental area where you're going to kill the trade if price doesn't do what you'd expect then isn't that just a smaller stop, albeit a mental one, for a smaller percentage risk. And doesn't it encourage emotional trading?

And it wouldn't it have meant that you would have killed yesterday's USDCAD before it had a chance to come back...

I will stick around as long as we are talking about trading and things and not just posting stupid charts all day.. That's just art work unless you put a RR on it and some thought.

*** Yes and No, What happens is once you get into a trade at least for me is I think Okay now I am committed, I did my homework and I am going to let it ride out unless it stalls or something external changes. Take my trade from today, I posted it all, I had a uptrend below price, a flat trend line above price with the trend going down so my guess was it was going to run the stops with a big bar down, that happened. Also before I put the trade on I was thinking that we did not take out the 10:30AM EST high on the S&P we put in so we will sell off most of the day. I watch the S&P 500 a lot for this kind of stuff, if the S&P sells off so does the eur/usd or at least that is the case the past several months. Okay back to the trade, So I have my Support and Resistance up, I have my TIME of 2:30 for the low of the day, 2:37 was the exact low and I think I missed the low by 3 pips but who’s counting lol So now I have Time, S:R, and my Risk of T1=10 T2=20 T3 = TIME not really a target, the reason I closed at that low was time and due to a big bar, most bars will retrace about 50% but that T3 ended up being 45 pips. Now what happens if it was past 2:30 say 3:00? Well my time is up and I close the trade, I will not keep a 5min trade longer then 2 hours MOST of the time, now you have rules but sometimes you have to change them, if it’s still slamming down I am not going to close it, if it’s 2:30 and one huge stop running bar, well I will close it out. Now if I got in it and it went sideways for say 30-45min then I will try to get a little out of it but my close at a small cost or profit. To me time and price go hand in hand, a stalled trade for me most of time is changing trend is looking to stop me out, remember you can always get back in as I did yesterday 3 min after I got stopped out on the 1min chart.
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #32,119
  • Edited Jun 4, 2009 12:46am Jun 3, 2009 6:29pm | Edited Jun 4, 2009 12:46am
Quoting TiaForex
Something I've never understood about killing a trade if price doesn't go as you expect....

...isn't this interfering with your plan? I mean, either you have a stop in place for 1R or you don't, right? If you have a mental area where you're going to kill the trade if price doesn't do what you'd expect then isn't that just a smaller stop, albeit a mental one, for a smaller percentage risk. And doesn't it encourage emotional trading?

And it wouldn't it have meant that you would have killed yesterday's USDCAD before it had a chance to come back...
Quick answer (from me), when I started taking this business and method seriously I had a problem (and probably still do) with 100+ pip drawdowns. Even if the position size was adjusted accordingly.

Much of it had to do with the quality of the setups I was taking, which when I started, wasn't the best. As I grew more patient and picky with the setups (practise, practise) that I would select, I saw that some would give a nice amount of pips before it drew down and some would never draw down. And of course, some would fail.

I decided that a tighter stop would net me some nice pips or stop me out at break even and some would run to the moon. But I would never see the ones that fail. The higher the quality of the setup makes this so much easier.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #32,120
  • Jun 3, 2009 6:31pm Jun 3, 2009 6:31pm
Quoting mbqb11
Hey Mea

I put my thoughts up yesterday here
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...54#post2771054

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...81#post2771081
Hello
USD-CAN took the daily PB yesterday

since i took this trade already i took the fall to see how it works.
SL was almost hit after a dive about 160 pips and than it turnend and the bulls took charge.
Now I am up 150 Pips took 50% off the table moved to BE and took an other 25% and will let the rest run.

Guess I got lucky

good trading
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