Cool Runnings intraday swing trading

hi all

thanks fx dad for the eur/chf trade ,going good

blog looks good too

john

Yes I'm getting used to seeing those squeezes now due to you keep pointing them out, thanks. Saw todays when I logged on but was asleep during the trade...4am here matchstick broke!

Hey John, you're welcome! Thanks for looking at the blog. I threw it together this weekend, and am still trying to ge the hang of it, and juggling my time.

As for the CHF trade. It is to be a long term trade, so I'm going to keep holding for now, but I have moved my stop to B/E. I didn't get in until 1.5090. If it breaks below that, I'll just re-enter at a lower price. The ultimate support level on that trade is supposed to be 1.50, with a stop at 1.4970.

Chuck

Links! We need to find some eye lid props made of metal for you! LOL. 159.17 should hold as a new support, so it may take another bounce up. Keep an eye on those other pairs if GBPJPY gets back down to 159.17, and see if the agree with an uptrend.

Yep there are a few previous highs all lined up around 157.17 so will watch that point for a bounce, together with the other pairs. Cable is up and down like a yo yo with the news out.

Watch for a possible break of the high of 1.6660. It's moving down now, but look for support at .6550-.6560, and even down to .6500. It is hard to deny the bull run it is taking. So watch for a support level and a hard bounce up to make a new high over 1.6660

It made the break of 1.4265 and is down 50 pips so far.

Watching it thanks... bought the bounce at 665 then when it rose got the stop to BE.

Excellent Links! Hope it holds. At least you are in with a B/E! Once you're in at B/E, at least it is a free trade, meaning you don't pay anything for it!

Got stopped out but as you say didn't cost anything, will watch it and look to enter again around 575 mark now its around 555.

FTSE is down, that is the only reason I can see for the downturn. PMI was better than expected so that should have only been good for the GBP. I think there is some profit taking going on by the banks and others, they will drive the price downn and re-enter. May bottom out at the 6500-6490 area.

Surprised the GBPJPY didn't even slow down at 159.17 area! If the Cable keeps breaking down, and the FTSE stays down, it could carry down to 158.

Today is another classic case of risk aversion, driving up the USD. Why? I don't know. The USD as of late has been likened to toilet paper. Bankers and economists have been threatineing the USD by doubting their faith in the dollar as a safe haven, but on a day, with bad political and economic news, the USD was bought up, and given back some lost ground. So, yes, the dollar is still a safe haven for the big investors that over tha past few days, have talked it down. I knew economic news was going to be bad during the NY session and thought it would drive the dollar down. The DOW closed at -65.63 for the day. Not a horrible number, but it was enough to drive the GBP down a few hundred pips and the EUR a 100. News out of London about the Parlimentary resignations, didn't help sustain the Sterling's bull run. Now, the charts are starting to level out, and we should start to see some formations starting to take shape through the Asian session.

So far, I'm not seeing much on the GBPJPY. There is a definite resistance setting up on the 156.85. Could watch for a break above that for a possible scalp with a tight stop, or a possible fall back to 155.72, to form a range. Just keep an eye on the PA. After the wacky 48 hours we just had, I'd be careful and keep trades small until something more definite and clear sets up. I'm thinking about a rebound today, and weakness back in the USD. Have to keep an eye on US equities in overnight trading to see if they are back up.

Hi,

Im a pretty new trader, about 1years experience. Still looking to hone my skills. Ive been around the trading roundabout; from naked charts to fundamental announcements to indicators and systems.

Now Im kinda rebuilding. I've been following this thread for a while now because I take particular interest in the GBP/JPY, and have found that you definitely know what your talking about. Thanks much and keep up the good work.

What would be your advice to me to further develop my trading. I currently use multiple time frames and then scalp 1min. with a macd/rsi set up, coupled with some chart patterns. pretty good so far.
But I really would like to reach the level where I can analyze economic conditions, market sentiment, equities and the Dow so as to make better decisions. But then again would that work with my 1min time frames?

Hey Jer,

Thanks for the compliment! Always nice to hear.

As to your question: I think we're all different. My main flaw when starting out, was bad money management. I live in NV. I live in Reno now, but lived in Vegas for 11 years. This is the world capital of gambling. I have no problems throwing money around. My main problem was holding on to it. If I lost on a couple trades in a row, I'd double up, as if I was at the blackjack table.

Then after I conquered my bad money management, then I developed another bad habit. I would hold trades too long, either trying to wait for it to get out of the red, or instead of closing out and being happy with 30, 40 or 50 pips, I'd hold trying to get 100-200. I would be up 40 pips and instead of closing out, and taking profit (or moving my stop to break even), I'd hold too long and stop out at a loss, and if I was luck, I'd B/E. I still struggle with this problem.

So these are my faults I worked on. Trading stratedgy or methodolgy aside, what would you say are your fundamental faults? What ever you feel they are, correct them! It sounds like scalping the 1M chart is working for you. I can tell you it is not my cup of tea, but it works for you, and that is most important! When you are seriously trading, serious money, the most important thing is to be comfortable. If your head isn't in the right place, YOU WILL FAIL. The main thing is to establish a comfort level. When your comfortable, it is easier to be confident when you pull the trigger (click on buy or sell).

I am not a fan of indicators. I use only one, a MT4 custom indicator I think "Desperate" (John) posted on here a few months ago, and that is the AutoPivotIndicator_ver5. Was that you John? It shows a daily pivot, weekly and a monthly. That's it. Before I was a regular on FXFactory, I'd never heard the term "Naked Chartist." Now I know, I am a "Nudist" when it comes to my charts. I like to look at a bare chart, 1H, and I look for my three favorite patterns. They are the consolidation squeeze, and a tight horizontal range. The 3rd, I'm not even sure what the name is for it, but is when several hours of candles, are stacked up on a support line, or pushing up against a resistance line, and waiting for the collapse, or the explosion upward. Then coming up 4th, are clear trends and watching for trend breaks. I think it took a couple years of full time trading to really get a knack for it. I think I learn and get better everyday. Forex really takes time. JUST REMEMBER: It doesn't matter what works for me, it is what you feel works best for you.

I started trading in my mid 30's. After puberty hit, I was never the best student. I studied Economics and Finance at Chapman University in Southern California. Then in I think 1987, the movie "Wall Street" came out, and about the same time, "Trading Places." So, with a little over a year of College left, I started pumping out resumes to different investment firms. I was offered a job, quit school and went to work, and never looked back. Was I successful? Sometimes yes and sometimes not. OK..... my point is, I am no fan of studying, books, classes, tutorials, seminars, none of it. I like to learn on my own, by throwing myself into the fire and learning by trial and error. With Forex, that was an expensive education! I spent a lot on paying for trade signals, live trade sessions, and mentoring. Some sucked and were a total waste of money, and others, I am grateful for. It was a lot of eperimentation, and learning what was best and most comfortable for me.

For you Jermy, it sounds like you are doing well for your first year of trading. If you are comfortable with your style, and you are making pips. You are in the elite 5%, and for a first year trader, I'd say you are in the top 1%!

Try not to force anything. If you are able to see the setups on my charts, or the levels I give you, GREAT! That is the whole reason I am posting here. I signed up for this thread because Tatton was making some serious trades, and it really caught my attention, and brought me over to the "Darkside" of trading the GBPJPY. Since he's been gone, I've started posting, because I wanted to keep the traffic flowing through the thread, so it would still have interest when he came back.

I was going to give out buy and sell signals, but I will leave that up to Tatton, if and when he comes back. Hope he gets better soon. I found rather helpless when I used signal services, because I learned nothing. Then I was using a service, where a guy named Russ, would do a live room every night where he went over support, resistance, and trendlines. I learned the most from him. He is no longer around, don't know what happend to him.

Can you tell I like to write? Wake up Jermy! Sorry to be putting you to sleep! I'm just trying to instill in you, that you hone your skills that fit you and your temperment. 1M scalps, drive me nuts, but it doesn't mean I'm right! The main thing is that it works for you! It's your money your trading not mine. I'm happy to share what I do, with you. I am glad you appreciate some of it.

(Would you mind if I added your post and my answer to my blog? Thanks!)

[quote=FX Dad;2778196]Hey Jer,

Thanks for the compliment! Always nice to hear.

Thanks to you. And yes its ok to do the post.

My system seems to be working for that im glad. But even though I practice good money management, every now and then I break my own rules and pay deerly. For instance lost 200 pips at this weeks open (Teribly married 2 trades). And has recover 150 pips up to now.

What i dont get tho trading 1hr tf how can u only go for 50/40pips? R u trading 1:1 risk reward.

With my 1m set ups I can afford to run with 20/30/40 pips as i only risk 10:15 pips. And thats wat i was hoping to improve. especially like this week when I sit before the PC and watch the market run for 100s of pips and not be apart of it. Then you look back and really have to ask yourself where were you when all of that was happening.

On second thought tho. Im really interested in ur style of trading bcuz I kno this market changes and I hope Ill have a good enough system or strategy to survive the changes.

Thanks again

Well, it did decide to range back down to 155.72, and has made a nice 200 pip run up. Even if you were able to only catch a buy on the break of 156.85, one could have grabbed a quick scalp out of that 90 pip move, (and it's still climbing). Pips are pips guys! Be happy with the positive numbers. 20 pips here, 40 there, are quite respectable trades. With the GBPJPY, we all know that once in a while, we will catch the 100, 200, 300 pip moves! They will come. I hope those of you that have been watching my charts, have been able to see the moves forming when I tell you the levels and when to watch for breaks. I'll post an updated chart with a couple new S/R lines near the top.

Happy to field any questions.......

Yes, I'm trading with Risk/Reward at about 1:1. Like I told anther trader on here, I wait for the move to start before I trade, I don't trade an anticipated move. So, I am always pretty damn sure it will keep going in the direction I based my trade on. Now, every currency pair is different. With the USDCHF or even the EURUSD, I'd be happy with 15-30 pips, the GBPUSD and the USDJPY 25-40. With the GBPJPY, 40-50, but if PA looks good, I'll wait and watch for a carry farther, but never be afraid to take a profit. I try and take trades where my stop loss never even gets close. So I miss the first few pips on a move? As long as I am really confident that the move is happening, I will execute the trade and make money.

With your larger losses, it is all a matter of sticking to your trade plan, and if those were intended to be scalps, you deviated from your trade plan. After a few losses like those, you will keep your stop losses set at 10:15.

As for teaching my style of trading, I think I could write a 400 page book, and still not be able to teach it. I think it is a matter of following and watching, as I did with Russ. Finally, one day, I realized I was seeing it on my own, then slowly built up my confidence to seriously trade what I saw on my own.

Hope this helps.

[quote=Jermy365;2778239] I wanted to add to the subject a bit. For some reason, I am more comfortable watching PA on a 1H chart. I always enter a trade, where my stop loss is comfortably beyond a major S/R level, trendline, or pivot, without throwing my Risk/Reward off of 1:1. Pips are pips! As long as they are mine!

fxdad n linksman,

was just looking through the threads in a quiet period and i came across you 2 golfing traders... and fishermen to boot! so had to post a hello.

fxdad: I'm a breakout trader also and enjoy the way you trade (also traded managed accounts but don't atm)

i'll drop in for a chin wag every now and again if that alright by you guys

regards