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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #31,841
  • Jun 1, 2009 6:05pm Jun 1, 2009 6:05pm
This USDCAD pin reminds me of a daily pin from last August on the EURUSD. I think every poster on the board took the pin, including James16 himself.

A few got out with a small loose, most of us took the full lose, and I think even James16 took a full lose on it. It prompted outrage, so James16 came to explain that nothing is 100% and it was realzied that the size of the pin v. the strength of the down move was just too much.

I have been around here long enough to remember it well. Even if I am not getting better at this at all, I will not give up.

I am passing on this trade, so I would not be surprised if it goes to the moon.
  • #31,842
  • Jun 1, 2009 6:21pm Jun 1, 2009 6:21pm
in regards to the pin.

i would like to see oil rejected @ 70 with good pa.. to give me a bit more confirmation.. this pin might break up but i'm looking at it as maybe a slowdown of the down trend.
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  • #31,843
  • Jun 1, 2009 6:40pm Jun 1, 2009 6:40pm
Well I thought,
what's better? Feeding company with all the emplyees or letting it go down without wasting any more money trying to save it?
Unemployment was and still is inevitable. But who can believe in good future without healthly companies? From that point of view I think it is good that GM goes down. It is not good, just less bad.. But as I said, only my opinion.
  • #31,844
  • Jun 1, 2009 6:42pm Jun 1, 2009 6:42pm
Quoting unlv_tj
This USDCAD pin reminds me of a daily pin from last August on the EURUSD....
So much true.. I remember that one too
  • #31,845
  • Jun 1, 2009 7:05pm Jun 1, 2009 7:05pm
Regarding the USDCAD pin:

It's at a great location and I would expect some reaction at this level because of it. We've got that. But it is it a reaction before continuing down or a full blooded reversal? I would like to have seen a bigger bar myself simply because of the sheer power of the downtrend. Looking back, the bars that reversed trends like this have been huge.

My favourite types of pins occur at retraces on the main trend (usually at nice fib levels). I've had my fingers burnt while demoing these smaller pins at the end of huge downtrends. Last year the yen pairs threw up a few and as Mike pointed out UCAD has done it in the past. I got burnt while demoing and then thought "Why am I fighting such a huge huge trend?". Doesn't mean I can't pick reversals using this technique, far from it. But the stronger the trend, the stronger the signal I'll need from the bar to suggest an out and out reversal.

So I won't play this. Which doesn't mean it won't work. But having observed this kind of situation before, I wouldn't be surprised if a few of these appear before something much bigger signalling a reversal.

I also think playing any kind of entry on this before the high of the bar is broken would be crazy, but that's just me.
  • #31,846
  • Jun 1, 2009 7:08pm Jun 1, 2009 7:08pm
Quoting unlv_tj
This USDCAD pin reminds me of a daily pin from last August on the EURUSD....
I remember that pin. As I recall, James took it, Mike didn't... Just goes to show there are so many ways of doing it.

It was at the end of a mammoth downtrend. And I think there might have been a pin a few days later that was bigger and played out if I remember rightly.
  • #31,847
  • Jun 1, 2009 7:22pm Jun 1, 2009 7:22pm
I will trade long at the break of this pin on AUDNZD. First TP and move rest to BE @ 1.2593. Second TP anticipated around the 1.2721 area but I will watch PA for that decision.

K.I.S.S.
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  • #31,848
  • Jun 1, 2009 7:36pm Jun 1, 2009 7:36pm
hello jay and welcome,

where is your farm jay?

jim

Quoting jay
Hello. My name is Jay, and I was introduced to the Forex market two days ago. The individual who told me the basics of trading this market counseled me to start with "James16's Chart Thread" on a place called Forex Factory. I finally found the thread despite being somewhat technologically challenged. (Fairly sad for a 31 year old, I know.)

Still quite overwhelmed with the information given, I find myself wondering if I am too late to the ball-game to establish anything of intrinsic value. If I understand correctly, james16 (the thread's author)...
  • #31,849
  • Jun 1, 2009 7:46pm Jun 1, 2009 7:46pm
I been watching the USD/CAD all day hoping it closed well. I have to admit it is somewhat of a revenge trade. I was short the pin on April 21 and got out with 400 pips then it went down another 1000 pips. I like the location too much.

I like the AUD/NZD off the 150 ema and 1.24ish area. Apparently, it is close to a trendline I drew some time ago as well. It's sitting right on the 50 fib from the last swing low that touched my trendline.

USD/CHF has a better pin than EUR/USD on my IBFX charts. It is at the 61.8 fib from the beginning of the uptrend. 1.6 and 1.7 to me look like a pretty good PPZ.

Thought about taking EUR/CAD except I am already taking USD/CAD and it was a much better looking pin. Now that I have made this choice EUR/CAD will have an explosive move and USD/CAD will not.
  • #31,850
  • Jun 1, 2009 8:06pm Jun 1, 2009 8:06pm
Intraday traders may like the look of short Loonie on the 4-hour. Reaction may give a clue as to the substance of the daily pause. I'll be watching AUD as well, as it has been a leader lately. USDCHF remains above the initial resistance, however, That gives me pause from being overly aggressive yet. 1.07 seems to hold a short term key on that one.
  • #31,851
  • Jun 1, 2009 8:07pm Jun 1, 2009 8:07pm
this post is a great example of why this thread remains great.

we all have "bad days" and that surely includes me.

those of us that reach a realization that bad days are actually gifts in disguise designed to give us an OPPURTUNITY to improve ourselves, our lives and surmount life long barriers are both rare and truly blessed

that kind of insight when it comes is not given it is earned.





Quoting markmm
I agree with the profits to expect, I would think the first worry is not how much I can make per year, rather, can I make a profit at all? Get there first, and consistently then look at improving your ROI. The guys who are getting 500% a year have obviously spent years getting their system / methods fine tuned and have many years of experience and knowledge i.e. Darkstar.

I want to also apologise to RyanMcd about the lower time frame comments, its obvious you are a talented trader with way more experience than me, I just had a bad day. Your comments...
  • #31,852
  • Jun 1, 2009 8:15pm Jun 1, 2009 8:15pm
USDCAD looks to me like profit taking off of support, hasnt truly tested the level imo although it may work.

I don't think the overall trend for USD is going to change for quite a while, not until there is some clarity regarding the debt problem, big trend reversals that occure within one day are usually violent.

2cents
  • #31,853
  • Jun 1, 2009 8:24pm Jun 1, 2009 8:24pm
Sexy pinbar nice location but a choppy pair at the moment ofcourse it can happen but Ill pass, would play between the lines. U/C I can invision a little pullback but thats a hell of a runaway train to stop with that pin at least on my feed 1.1000 stop b/e quickly. I will just observe and wait for simple and obvious to show up
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  • #31,854
  • Jun 1, 2009 8:42pm Jun 1, 2009 8:42pm
Still have this pair under observation would love the 97 resistance to leave a big fat clue as to this monster intentions?At the moment last month 50 fib is holdin the fort down
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  • #31,855
  • Jun 1, 2009 8:43pm Jun 1, 2009 8:43pm
Quote
Thank you, sir. I appreciate the warm welcome.
I can handle "slow." I wait 11 to 12 months between planting(s). Slow is something us farmers can use to our benefit . . . coupled with "steadiness," of course. Thanks again.

Great post.

Welcome Jay, & Good Luck!
No one is never too old to learn & try something
  • #31,856
  • Jun 1, 2009 9:05pm Jun 1, 2009 9:05pm
Quoting TiaForex
Regarding the USDCAD pin:

It's at a great location and I would expect some reaction at this level because of it. We've got that. But it is it a reaction before continuing down or a full blooded reversal? I would like to have seen a bigger bar myself simply because of the sheer power of the downtrend. Looking back, the bars that reversed trends like this have been huge.

My favourite types of pins occur at retraces on the main trend (usually at nice fib levels). I've had my fingers burnt while demoing these smaller pins at the end of huge downtrends....
Hey Tia,
When you mention 'a great location' above are you referring to support from back in Aug/Sept of last year? Also fairly close to a round number at 1.0800. Do you see anything else?
  • #31,857
  • Jun 1, 2009 9:10pm Jun 1, 2009 9:10pm
Here are two chart observations:

Daily $cad chart with Aug-Sept '08 highlighted (FxPro MT4) & Daily oil chart with Aug-Sept '08 highlighted (XTB MT4)

The magnitude of the recent moves is not equally correlated between the two. $cad has reached the Aug-Sept '08 range; while Oil has not, it's actually far from that respective range.

I'm not exactly sure what it specifically tells us, but it's good enough for me to observe this. Maybe, in the medium/long-term $cad will continue to weaken without Oil following completely (in magnitude/percentage terms). Or the absurd scenario would be Oil will catch up with $cad's moves.

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  • #31,858
  • Jun 1, 2009 9:32pm Jun 1, 2009 9:32pm
Hi Denarii,

I hope you're joking about revenge trading...the market doesn't know you so no need to take revenge. You will never get all the pips of an entire move..but if you get some more than you lose trying to get them then you are doing well. So you missed 1000 pips but still got out 400...that's more of a reason to congratulate yourself.

Rubin.

Quoting Denarii
I been watching the USD/CAD all day hoping it closed well....
  • #31,859
  • Edited 9:52pm Jun 1, 2009 9:40pm | Edited 9:52pm
Quoting jay
Hello....
pssstt...hi Jay.ill tell you a secret......if boss man james had started here on this thread from day one im sure you could knock a big chunk off that 9 years, your friend has advised you well !!
welcome and good luck, im sure the seniors will treat you well.
jon
PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
  • #31,860
  • Jun 1, 2009 9:41pm Jun 1, 2009 9:41pm
Quoting enculée
USDCAD looks to me like profit taking off of support, hasnt truly tested the level imo although it may work.

I don't think the overall trend for USD is going to change for quite a while, not until there is some clarity regarding the debt problem, big trend reversals that occure within one day are usually violent.

2cents
nice post, i agree. it puts them pin bars into perspective for me
cheers
jon
PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
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