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Naked S/R intent trading

  • #61
  • Jun 1, 2009 6:05am Jun 1, 2009 6:05am
Okay, if more than 10 people take educated stabs at just why its so obvious without drawing more than 5 lines and adding a single indicator or similar BS (MA, fibs, volume...) then I may continue when I have time....

Gotta fill the time waiting for price to reach key levels somehow
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Ignorance, is blatantly, bliss.
  • #62
  • Jun 1, 2009 6:27am Jun 1, 2009 6:27am
OK Wasp, 5 major lines which tell a story about the trend and potential S/R. All in the past now though of course and there is no obligation for price to respect them in the future.

Red TL, broken. End of impulsive down trend. Retested on higher low, nice impusive move upward followed....

Blue TL, broken. Perhaps shallow up-trend (consolidation) is weakening in momentum. Draw a new one on next low....

Blue TL, thick. New TL, describing price well. Higher highs and higher lows accelerating, which leads to.....

Blue horizontal line, broken. Previous supply price which may represent value if retested. Potential buy level.

Red horizontal line. Previous supply point which may represent value to sellers if retested. Potential sell level.
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  • #63
  • Edited 6:39am Jun 1, 2009 6:30am | Edited 6:39am
Quoting thewasp
Okay, if more than 10 people take educated stabs at just why its so obvious without drawing more than 5 lines and adding a single indicator or similar BS (MA, fibs, volume...) then I may continue when I have time....
Okay, i'll have a go...fairly obvious and supported uptrend since the low of 23 Jan 09. Clear pattern of HH and HL. It met resitance at 142 again, following the previous swing high at that level on 7 Jan 09.

Price was rejected by 142 on the 25 and 26 Feb 09 before having another go and finally breaking through on 24 March.

Next resistance after that was 150. We see a similar story with that level...tested, rejected, HL, tested, rejected, HL etc. There were numerous opportunities to join this party along the way with pins, BUEB etc etc.

Last week, in a strong week for the pound, price broke through 150 and the next major resitance or turning point is way up at 165 (i am aware of minor levels between here and there, but i see 165 as the major one).

So going on past behaviour of this pair, expect a retrace and look for PA to go long, ideally off 150 but nothing is ever 'ideal'

Am i close?

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  • #64
  • Jun 1, 2009 12:33pm Jun 1, 2009 12:33pm
Enjoy

Its screaming at you
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  • #65
  • Jun 1, 2009 12:51pm Jun 1, 2009 12:51pm
I don't got much to share else than cable took out yearly high.
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Measure twice, cut once
  • #66
  • Jun 1, 2009 2:04pm Jun 1, 2009 2:04pm
Nice stuff guys, although that MACD is not needed aediaz1.

Just waiting to see if any more input plus laying a Japanese garden and moved about 3 ton of cobble and aggregate today and still not done so will be back later!
Ignorance, is blatantly, bliss.
  • #67
  • Jun 1, 2009 2:50pm Jun 1, 2009 2:50pm
Quoting thewasp
Nice stuff guys, although that MACD is not needed aediaz1.

Just waiting to see if any more input plus laying a Japanese garden and moved about 3 ton of cobble and aggregate today and still not done so will be back later!
Some years ago I said the very same thing Macd is nothing more than a guidance tool whereas divergence on higher TF could be considered as a point of confluence. But to your defend, if we define "needed", it's not a must I just like to keep an eye on it.
Measure twice, cut once
  • #68
  • Jun 1, 2009 2:51pm Jun 1, 2009 2:51pm
Wasp

Looking forward to get into the nitty grityy of naked marketstructure and market flow

superfly
  • #69
  • Jun 1, 2009 3:09pm Jun 1, 2009 3:09pm
Quoting ssit
Wasp

Looking forward to get into the nitty grityy of naked marketstructure and market flow

superfly
Fully aware of being a party-killer, I wouldn't have high hopes for something "new" or revolutionary. I said that because I have seen threads like this many times before and I'm not sure what new this thread will add into your TA understanding. Nevertheless, I'm going to show some manners and let the man show whats on the menu.
Measure twice, cut once
  • #70
  • Jun 1, 2009 3:09pm Jun 1, 2009 3:09pm
Upper trendline not really needed.
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  • #71
  • Jun 1, 2009 3:39pm Jun 1, 2009 3:39pm
Quoting aediaz1
Fully aware of being a party-killer, I wouldn't have high hopes for something "new" or revolutionary. I said that because I have seen threads like this many times before and I'm not sure what new this thread will add into your TA understanding. Nevertheless, I'm going to show some manners and let the man show whats on the menu.
There is nothing new in trading, never has been. successful proficient trading is not about finding some edge or 'something new' IMO, its like learning a new language... Its all about learning to read. For some its brand new, some just a change of view, I'm just interested in opening people eyes to reading between the lines and reading people. The thread was only actually started to ask a couple of questions, never came to be the next guru!
Ignorance, is blatantly, bliss.
  • #72
  • Jun 1, 2009 3:58pm Jun 1, 2009 3:58pm
Hope I'm not too late...
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note: The ma and CDRW Spread help make the lines, nothing more. Lots of guide lines were used to make the lines showing.
Trying to understand patterns also.
  • #73
  • Jun 1, 2009 4:01pm Jun 1, 2009 4:01pm
hmmm, we'll have those MAs and bottom indicator of there soon enough...

As for http://www.chartpatterns.com/, again, reading between the lines is needed... more later!
Ignorance, is blatantly, bliss.
  • #74
  • Jun 1, 2009 4:10pm Jun 1, 2009 4:10pm
My sarcasm senses are tingling.


BTW wasps chart is GJ not GU.
  • #75
  • Jun 1, 2009 4:13pm Jun 1, 2009 4:13pm
Quoting KillPhil08
My sarcasm senses are tingling.


BTW wasps chart is GJ not GU.

It makes no odds if its GJ or orange juice but for the sake of ease, it would make life a lot easier if we're all singing of the same sheet.... GJ and daily and blank (except your drawn lines).
Ignorance, is blatantly, bliss.
  • #76
  • Jun 1, 2009 4:59pm Jun 1, 2009 4:59pm
Quoting thewasp
There is nothing new in trading, never has been. successful proficient trading is not about finding some edge or 'something new' IMO, its like learning a new language... Its all about learning to read. For some its brand new, some just a change of view, I'm just interested in opening people eyes to reading between the lines and reading people. The thread was only actually started to ask a couple of questions, never came to be the next guru!
I agree with your term, its pretty much like learning a new language.

Be careful, the road towards guru status isn't particular long here @ FF
Measure twice, cut once
  • #77
  • Jun 1, 2009 6:25pm Jun 1, 2009 6:25pm
Quoting thewasp
Nah, don't believe it.. I have it on good authority that a large speculator in sterling/yen is the Russian CB (don't ask me why). You really think they are going to hand over that data? Russians! Its just too widespread to get the full picture anyhow. IMO!

On t2w, next to me, the biggest advocater of the irrelevance of volume is a 25 year bank trader, he can't and doesn't use it and will tell you you can't quite emphatically. The only thing they have more than us is the order books of the bank clients.

All indicators are derivative from price except volume and therefore those indicators cannot be more important than volume itself but for some is visually easier to interpret STO or RSI or ..than volume .
Volume is directly involved in price action but stochastic or any other similar indicator is not....
Some People misinterpret MA, STO Volume, Fibonacci, Pivot points....Money management, then there are emotions of all kind which differently affect different people....
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #78
  • Jun 1, 2009 7:43pm Jun 1, 2009 7:43pm
Sorry mima, thewasp says volume is useless and he's a bank trader with 15 years experience... you see, we are all blind, dumb, and ignorant and he has come to show us the light.
  • #79
  • Jun 2, 2009 8:25am Jun 2, 2009 8:25am
Here is my pic, I was tempted to use some Fibs, but did not.
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Makin my way, the only way I know how...
  • #80
  • Edited 11:58am Jun 2, 2009 10:17am | Edited 11:58am
OK here is mine because The wasp is away.
(Full disclosure, I have been taught by the Wasp)

I'm not sure when he will be back, the problem with open forums is not everyone has a positive attitude.

Good trading
Nicola
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