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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #31,821
  • Jun 1, 2009 4:25pm Jun 1, 2009 4:25pm
Hello. My name is Jay, and I was introduced to the Forex market two days ago. The individual who told me the basics of trading this market counseled me to start with "James16's Chart Thread" on a place called Forex Factory. I finally found the thread despite being somewhat technologically challenged. (Fairly sad for a 31 year old, I know.)

Still quite overwhelmed with the information given, I find myself wondering if I am too late to the ball-game to establish anything of intrinsic value. If I understand correctly, james16 (the thread's author) reached a successful point in about 9 years. Now, although this is an admirable feat at 20 years, let alone 9 years, will the U.S. still be around in another 9 years? ( . . . perhaps Texas only with Dr. Paul in charge . . . )

Heaven forbid myself to think that success can be obtained no other way than by smart and hard work. I am a farmer; so I understand the meaning of both smart and hard work coupled with risk aversion or a proper risk/reward ratio.

With this being said, I am blessed to have been given this opportunity. Just thought I'd introduce myself while I spend time studying this material.

-Jay
  • #31,822
  • Jun 1, 2009 4:27pm Jun 1, 2009 4:27pm
Quoting flyer415
Mike, I have been away for a month and today is my first day back. was the chat you mentioned on the PF?

Just now getting into everything and perhaps over-anxious seeing 2 potential daily PBs.

How about my original thought. For example sake, assume that both trades are a good setup. Assume that i trade with a 2% risk factor. Both trades are highly negatively correlated. So is it two trades at 2%, one at 2% or two at 1%.

Will wait for the daily close before I really decide what i will do.

Thanks

Brian
Welcome back brian, yes this was a webinar chat.

Depends on your trade rules. If I see 2 amazing pinbars, and I want to take them both and they are highly correlated. usually I just end up taking the best one. If they are both amazing I trade them both at full risk(mine is 1% a trade). Those trading 2% a trade, might want to split it up. This is part of what works for you. I would be cautious to ever get over exposed.

Best

Mike
  • #31,823
  • Jun 1, 2009 4:29pm Jun 1, 2009 4:29pm
Quoting jay
Hello....
Welcome Jay

31 is by far a great time to still learn to trade. Even if it takes you 9 years you are only 40. Some people learn to trade much much later in life and it is still very much worth their cause. There will always be a market to trade, if it isn't currencies, commodities, if not commodities something. Markets have been around for way to long to ever just disappear.

Take it very SLOW, and don't feel a rush to hit that finish line.

Again welcome and enjoy too!

Mike
  • #31,824
  • Jun 1, 2009 4:30pm Jun 1, 2009 4:30pm
Look at the pins that formed on the USD/CHF, Euro, or the loonie Dec. 18th of last year. If the USD/CAD pin looked like one of those, I would feel more confident about taking the setup. Can someone queue one of those pins up? I'm not proficient in mt4 like other posters with the fancy highlighting and text on the charts . . .
"Don't trade to trade . . . trade to win." - James16
  • #31,825
  • Jun 1, 2009 4:37pm Jun 1, 2009 4:37pm
Quoting eswap0
.
(BTW, I should have look at TL before entering UJ last night...)
Not sure how you managed the UJ last night eswap0. But let me say this and its not a criticism of you at all.

When the 2 Day PB broke (or any PA setup for that matter) and hits an obvious 1st target (S/R, PPZ, Highs, Lows, etc.) and one doesn't take profit or protects oneself, by expecting more pips, the person is suffering from Delusions of Grandeur. Protect yourself on great setups and the profits will take care of themselves. (imo) (sorry can't post current chart)

Jim


http://i43.tinypic.com/2yvqnvc.jpg
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #31,826
  • Jun 1, 2009 4:40pm Jun 1, 2009 4:40pm
Quoting mbqb11
Take it very SLOW, and don't feel a rush to hit that finish line.

Again welcome and enjoy too!

Mike
Thank you, sir. I appreciate the warm welcome.

I can handle "slow." I wait 11 to 12 months between planting(s). Slow is something us farmers can use to our benefit . . . coupled with "steadiness," of course. Thanks again.
  • #31,827
  • Jun 1, 2009 4:44pm Jun 1, 2009 4:44pm
Quoting jarroo
But let me say this and its not a criticism of you at all.
Healthy criticism is the path to excelence
(BTW, how do you say in English when you print the cows with a sign using a red hot piece of steel?)
This is the way I learned this today.
Thanks for your help!
Trading: the skill of avoiding trades
  • #31,828
  • Jun 1, 2009 4:44pm Jun 1, 2009 4:44pm
Quoting jarroo
Not sure how you managed the UJ last night eswap0. But let me say this and its not a criticism of you at all.

When the 2 Day PB broke (or any PA setup for that matter) and hits an obvious 1st target (S/R, PPZ, Highs, Lows, etc.) and one doesn't take profit or protects oneself, by expecting more pips, the person is suffering from Delusions of Grandeur. Protect yourself on great setups and the profits will take care of themselves. (imo) (sorry can't post current chart)

Jim
Can't agree more. I traded this one and exited almost the same place with part and was stopped out with the rest. I thought it will be much better, but no more hoping, it kills accounts by thousands.
  • #31,829
  • Edited 6:39pm Jun 1, 2009 4:50pm | Edited 6:39pm
Quoting eswap0
Healthy criticism is the path to excelence
(BTW, how do you say in English when you print the cows with a sign using a red hot piece of steel?)
This is the way I learned this today.
Thanks for your help!
I'm guilty as charged with this as well, eswap0. It took me a couple of James16 "rants" before it finally sank in for me. lol
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #31,830
  • Jun 1, 2009 4:51pm Jun 1, 2009 4:51pm
Quoting Schneeule
Can't agree more. I traded this one and exited almost the same place with part and was stopped out with the rest. I thought it will be much better, but no more hoping, it kills accounts by thousands.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #31,831
  • Jun 1, 2009 5:00pm Jun 1, 2009 5:00pm
Quoting Schneeule
Can't agree more. I traded this one and exited almost the same place with part and was stopped out with the rest. I thought it will be much better, but no more hoping, it kills accounts by thousands.
If you took this trade you were going for 25-35 pips. What was your risk?
Thank you
  • #31,832
  • Jun 1, 2009 5:02pm Jun 1, 2009 5:02pm
Quoting eswap0
Healthy criticism is the path to excelence
(BTW, how do you say in English when you print the cows with a sign using a red hot piece of steel?)
This is the way I learned this today.
Thanks for your help!
eswapO

That would be Branded!

Good trading, Gov
  • #31,833
  • Jun 1, 2009 5:03pm Jun 1, 2009 5:03pm
Quoting markmm
You are going against a 2 month trend and with GM going bankrupt not good for the dollar.
Well I would disagree that GM bankrupcy is not good for the dollar. Far more, Citigroup and GM goes from the DJIA list.

That is in my opinion very good for dollar or at least for the US economy. Maybe not enought to turn the trend right now (who knows when theese things happens ) but surely enought for some nice move. At least B/e move. Just my opinion.
  • #31,834
  • Jun 1, 2009 5:08pm Jun 1, 2009 5:08pm
Quoting Gov
That would be Branded!
Good trading, Gov
thanks Gov.
Good trading too.
Trading: the skill of avoiding trades
  • #31,835
  • Jun 1, 2009 5:12pm Jun 1, 2009 5:12pm
Quoting alter
If you took this trade you were going for 25-35 pips. What was your risk?
Thank you
I took out 50 (small profit) and rest ended break/even. I entered more agresively, becouse I liked the momentum, but I was ready to run out fast. Sl was about 45 pips, it wendt about 70 or 80 pips and then start to fall back, so I ran with part, b/e, and switched the pc off. I did not take it regulary at break.
  • #31,836
  • Jun 1, 2009 5:13pm Jun 1, 2009 5:13pm
Quoting Schneeule
Well I would disagree that GM bankrupcy is not good for the dollar. Far more, Citigroup and GM goes from the DJIA list.

That is in my opinion very good for dollar or at least for the US economy. Maybe not enought to turn the trend right now (who knows when theese things happens ) but surely enought for some nice move. At least B/e move. Just my opinion.
What about all the job losses?, unemployment figures will go up. Dont you think that will impact the dollar!! Think ive heard it all now.
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #31,837
  • Jun 1, 2009 5:15pm Jun 1, 2009 5:15pm
Quoting Schneeule
Well I would disagree that GM bankrupcy is not good for the dollar. Far more, Citigroup and GM goes from the DJIA list.

That is in my opinion very good for dollar or at least for the US economy. Maybe not enought to turn the trend right now (who knows when theese things happens ) but surely enought for some nice move. At least B/e move. Just my opinion.
Bankruptcy means the government will probably be on the hook for at least another $100 billion (probably more) when all's said and done. How can that possibly be good for the dollar? A dollar bounce would be in spite of GM.
  • #31,838
  • Jun 1, 2009 5:26pm Jun 1, 2009 5:26pm
Hi everyone,
Just a follow up on these pin bars. I added CCI (14) and may indicate a good confirmation. We'll see how they develop, this is new to me and trying to learn more.

Regards,
Rick
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: pin_eur_usd.gif Size: 9 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: pin_usd_cad.gif Size: 9 KB
I'm a disciplined trader and that's the only way I trade.
  • #31,839
  • Jun 1, 2009 5:53pm Jun 1, 2009 5:53pm
Quoting Shermenator
Here is the other pair I am hawking to see clear price action...we are at the 50 percent fibb from all of last years move down as well as the upper channel ...will be looking to sell this puppy during tomorrow session if the price action comes along...we should 1.4050 area to then start looking to buy the dips...

Attachment
Hi, I came across the daily E/U pin bar while looking at my charts this evening. It's about to close in 20 minutes or so (midnight my time in UK).

There is good confluence with the 50% April fib, resistance from the downward sloping trendline which has flipped from previously being support. First major resistence if the pin bar breaks could be the 4040 support coming all the way back from January 2008. My main concern is that it's against the short-term up trend!

I have only traded the daily a couple of times so far so I'd appreciate comments.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Eur_Usd_Daily_Pin_1stJun09.PNG Size: 113 KB
  • #31,840
  • Jun 1, 2009 5:59pm Jun 1, 2009 5:59pm
I agree with this completely. I have been burned or I guess you can say BRUISED in May with this kind of waste of time Pin. When the trend is strong like a small Pin will be destroyed in no time.

I think Mike is talking about 10/23/08...that Pin did nothing to stop the uptrend back then in USD/CAD it was taken out the next day. It took the Pin on 12/05/08 to start reversing the uptrend.

On the other hand a pin this size can easily work if it's with the general trend or if the market is going sideways...If you remember the Pins of 4/21/09 and others worked very nicely.

Rubin.

Quoting mbqb11
I very much agree and was the focus of my chat today. Just because there is a pin at a swing low does NOT mean it is an automatic reversal. Size does Matter, and in order to catch a falling knife a bar should be large and substantial. These little tiny pins at the bottom can be nothing more then a short lived pause. Those that play it, need to respect that and move stops very quickly.

Best
Mike
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