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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #31,801
  • Edited 3:11pm Jun 1, 2009 2:54pm | Edited 3:11pm
Quoting mbqb11
for tom
Coming from you that's a big compliment.

Some good stuff being said here by Ryan and Mark.
Just to add some personal history here, early in my trading career when I was still fairly new to the game and getting consistent with my trading.
I had a killer month where I made close to +20%. The next month I made something like +14%. I thought I was on the next train to richville. Guess how long those results lasted.
Next month I got -3%. Stuff like that will mess with your head. It did with me. And if you're head is out of the game, it won't take long before it reflects in your trading & results.

But "bad" months (or weeks or whatever) are part of it. Better accept this and move on.

There's also talk here about the difficulties of making money with a small account and how it'll never get you anywhere and you need a big account to really succeed, etc. One thing I recommend (if possible) is to have a stream of income on the side from a regular job while trading. And when you are ready (consistently profitable), you can deposit money saved (little by little) into your trading account to grow it. Because I know starting out with a couple of thousand, it's tough to see yourself progressing making 2-4% month for example. Treat it like a business and think long term.

Tom
  • #31,802
  • Jun 1, 2009 3:15pm Jun 1, 2009 3:15pm
Quoting markmm
Check above Ive attached it to a post.
Great, big thanks
  • #31,803
  • Jun 1, 2009 3:24pm Jun 1, 2009 3:24pm
Hello guys,

My name is Lars and this is my first post here in FF. Been following the forum as a guest for quite some time now. I hope i can contribute to this great thread in the future.

I have attached a USDCAD daily chart. We have a pin at a great location (if wee get a close in this area). It comes after a massive downtrend wich may have exhausted. If it closes as a pin i am planning to go long on a break. I will take some off at the 27 may low at 1.1090 area and move the rest of the position to breakeven. My final target is 1.1470.

The only concern i can see is that the pinbar is smallet than the friday bar. I believe that makes the pin a B+ setup.

Hope to see some comments on my first post here.

Have a great day everyone!

Lars
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cad.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #31,804
  • Jun 1, 2009 3:34pm Jun 1, 2009 3:34pm
Was also just looking at this. Swing low, area of old resistance that could turn into support, and a round number. I too am a little worrid about bar size but definitely watching the close.


Quoting lars
Hello guys,

My name is Lars and this is my first post here in FF. Been following the forum as a guest for quite some time now. I hope i can contribute to this great thread in the future.

I have attached a USDCAD daily chart. We have a pin at a great location (if wee get a close in this area). It comes after a massive downtrend wich may have exhausted. If it closes as a pin i am planning to go long on a break. I will take some off at the 27 may low at 1.1090 area and move the rest of the position to breakeven. My final target is 1.1470.

The...
  • #31,805
  • Jun 1, 2009 3:35pm Jun 1, 2009 3:35pm
Quoting lars
Hello guys,

My name is Lars and this is my first post here in FF. Been following the forum as a guest for quite some time now. I hope i can contribute to this great thread in the future.

I have attached a USDCAD daily chart. We have a pin at a great location (if wee get a close in this area). It comes after a massive downtrend wich may have exhausted. If it closes as a pin i am planning to go long on a break. I will take some off at the 27 may low at 1.1090 area and move the rest of the position to breakeven. My final target is 1.1470.

The...
Welcome Lars,
Theres a pin bar developing on Euro also, for me though trying to pick a bottom is risky and will result in smelly fingers lol.
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #31,806
  • Jun 1, 2009 3:43pm Jun 1, 2009 3:43pm
i have also been watching the EU and USDCAD potential daily PBs. Slight mental issue here as to taking the trades.

Right now they are very highly negatively correlated over the past several weeks. Typically, the USDCAD is not really correlated with the EU. As the trades are in opposite directions then wrong on one wrong on both.

So, take one and put my eggs in one basket or take both and split the trade.

i normally trade 2% risk factor so is it two trades at 2%, one at 2% or two at 1%.

Not looking for any definitive answer just musing out loud and wondering how others look at such a potential setup.
  • #31,807
  • Jun 1, 2009 3:48pm Jun 1, 2009 3:48pm
I would be very cautious here. Though I agree it looks like a good pinbar setup, there is a very strong down trend pushing this thing and I've seen many levels of support disrespected by this pair. I would recommend tight stops and TPs in the long direction. The bounce could be short lived.
  • #31,808
  • Jun 1, 2009 3:59pm Jun 1, 2009 3:59pm
Quote
trying to pick a bottom is risky and will result in smelly fingers lol.

cheers for the charts also.
jon
PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
  • #31,809
  • Jun 1, 2009 4:03pm Jun 1, 2009 4:03pm
Quoting g_j_hook@yah

cheers for the charts also.
jon
You are welcome, no trades for me, most pairs are at the bottom of their trend channel, I want some pullbacks before I trade.
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #31,810
  • Jun 1, 2009 4:08pm Jun 1, 2009 4:08pm
Quoting zegakai
I would be very cautious here. Though I agree it looks like a good pinbar setup, there is a very strong down trend pushing this thing and I've seen many levels of support disrespected by this pair. I would recommend tight stops and TPs in the long direction. The bounce could be short lived.
I very much agree and was the focus of my chat today. Just because there is a pin at a swing low does NOT mean it is an automatic reversal. Size does Matter, and in order to catch a falling knife a bar should be large and substantial. These little tiny pins at the bottom can be nothing more then a short lived pause. Those that play it, need to respect that and move stops very quickly.

Best
Mike
  • #31,811
  • Jun 1, 2009 4:14pm Jun 1, 2009 4:14pm
I don't see the problem with taking this trade long on the break of the pinbar. True, I would like to have seen a longer pinbar after that big move Friday.
But if we look at the current location of this bar, we have really strong old Resistance, which could (should?) act as strong support now.

Pros
- Swing low
- Valid Pinbar
- At PPZ
- Still fairly long if you compare to previous 20 bars or so.

Cons
- Bar isn't longer than previous bar.
- Maybe this bar is just doing a brief retrace from that strong support and will continue down tomorrow...

Still learning...but the probability seems to be in my favor (provided we get a good break.)

Josh
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD 060109_day.GIF Size: 45 KB
  • #31,812
  • Jun 1, 2009 4:15pm Jun 1, 2009 4:15pm
Quoting mbqb11
I very much agree and was the focus of my chat today. Just because there is a pin at a swing low does NOT mean it is an automatic reversal. Size does Matter, and in order to catch a falling knife a bar should be large and substantial. These little tiny pins at the bottom can be nothing more then a short lived pause. Those that play it, need to respect that and move stops very quickly.

Best
Mike
Wow. I was thinking the same thing . . . what's that saying? Fool me once . . .
"Don't trade to trade . . . trade to win." - James16
  • #31,813
  • Jun 1, 2009 4:16pm Jun 1, 2009 4:16pm
Quoting Jduester
I don't see the problem with taking this trade long on the break of the pinbar....
You are going against a 2 month trend and with GM going bankrupt not good for the dollar.
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #31,814
  • Jun 1, 2009 4:16pm Jun 1, 2009 4:16pm
Anybody looking at CAD/CHF?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cadchf.gif Size: 19 KB
  • #31,815
  • Jun 1, 2009 4:17pm Jun 1, 2009 4:17pm
Quoting mbqb11
I very much agree and was the focus of my chat today. Just because there is a pin at a swing low does NOT mean it is an automatic reversal. Size does Matter, and in order to catch a falling knife a bar should be large and substantial. These little tiny pins at the bottom can be nothing more then a short lived pause. Those that play it, need to respect that and move stops very quickly.

Best
Mike
Thanks for your comments Mike... I see your point with a falling knife. I just wonder if it hit the countertop, causing it to stop falling...Looks like a strong retrace/continuation downward right now anyway...

Josh
  • #31,816
  • Jun 1, 2009 4:18pm Jun 1, 2009 4:18pm
Mike, I have been away for a month and today is my first day back. was the chat you mentioned on the PF?

Just now getting into everything and perhaps over-anxious seeing 2 potential daily PBs.

How about my original thought. For example sake, assume that both trades are a good setup. Assume that i trade with a 2% risk factor. Both trades are highly negatively correlated. So is it two trades at 2%, one at 2% or two at 1%.

Will wait for the daily close before I really decide what i will do.

Thanks

Brian
  • #31,817
  • Jun 1, 2009 4:19pm Jun 1, 2009 4:19pm
Quoting markmm
You are going against a 2 month trend and with GM going bankrupt not good for the dollar.
This is true Markmm. I don't follow news, but it is certainly counter trend. I'm sure Ghous would be out for that reason alone.

Countertrend might be a good enough reason to not take it... Well, this isn't second nature to me yet

Josh
  • #31,818
  • Jun 1, 2009 4:20pm Jun 1, 2009 4:20pm
Quoting Jduester
This is true Markmm. I don't follow news, but it is certainly counter trend. I'm sure Ghous would be out for that reason alone.

Countertrend might be a good enough reason to not take it... Well, this isn't second nature to me yet

Josh
If you took it get to breakeven asap, then worst case you breakeven, best case you picked the bottom and make a killing!
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #31,819
  • Jun 1, 2009 4:22pm Jun 1, 2009 4:22pm
Regarding usdcad, I would add this weekly TL, although it is not J16 pure style.
(BTW, I should have look at TL before entering UJ last night...)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad_w.gif Size: 21 KB
Trading: the skill of avoiding trades
  • #31,820
  • Jun 1, 2009 4:24pm Jun 1, 2009 4:24pm
Quoting Jduester
Thanks for your comments Mike... I see your point with a falling knife. I just wonder if it hit the countertop, causing it to stop falling...Looks like a strong retrace/continuation downward right now anyway...

Josh
What I was saying to a few people today is. Yes maybe this is the support line. But if it is, wouldn't you want to see more substance in buying. Remember a pinbar doesn't represent a reversal. It represents buying and selling. I try to think about what actually the bar represents. A bigger bar at a good area shows substance. A small bar can show many things making the trade less of a probability. Do I want to try to pick a bottom with a small bar or a big bar? As a side note, the last time usd/cad was falling through the floor, there were many of these so-so pinbars. There was a near riot because about 3 of them in a row didn't offer much. People could not understand why. Then there was a huge bar indicating a reversal. I will let you all research that

Mike
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