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  • #3,501
  • Edited 12:14pm Jun 1, 2009 11:35am | Edited 12:14pm
Thanks all for the welcome. Fortunately, we are off to a good start with those ideas, for the moment anyway. I will be reviewing the thread and posting from time to time to try supplementing your superior trade format with my real time ideas. It is a pleasure to be a part of this type of interaction.
  • #3,502
  • Jun 1, 2009 12:21pm Jun 1, 2009 12:21pm
Quoting AstonDan
Hi Alexandra and welcome to the thread.

After knowing nothing but whipsaws and consolidation since i started late last year i find all this 'clear' weakness/trend disturbing!

My particular attention at the moment is on USDCHF. It's right on an ascending TL today and there is support around 1.0550, but if it breaks through these levels, i see very little to halt the southbound move.

Attachment
Dan,

Thanks - Indeed, there were several major players either confused or behind the curve as to the EUR and CHF related USD trades as of last week. The daily charts are imposing, and this technical fact combined with the lack of prior consensus is enough to keep my bias toward buying and selling the relative retracements for a while. PA will dictate, of couse, but I am comforted in trusting the trend at present. We all love a good retracement, aka, a sale!

Perhaps the futures-related volume data will be of interest to you in keeping watch on flows.

(LOL - all FX traders are disturbed - Mary Zweig made a career of that).
  • #3,503
  • Jun 1, 2009 2:03pm Jun 1, 2009 2:03pm
is there an important level around .8650?
  • #3,504
  • Jun 1, 2009 2:28pm Jun 1, 2009 2:28pm
Quoting BaliuxXx
is there an important level around .8650?
Yes definitely, you can see several bounces there, also the Boss MA is at that level, looks like price broke it which is a good sign that its going lower.

I am actually short in eurgbp right now, last week I entered at .8780 after that small outside bar then exited at the .8650 resistance. Yesteday I opened a new position after the sunday IB, took 1st profit at .8650, now I might close second position after this bar closes because there is some strong support around .8600
  • #3,505
  • Jun 1, 2009 3:18pm Jun 1, 2009 3:18pm
Quoting AstonDan
Hi Alexandra and welcome to the thread.

After knowing nothing but whipsaws and consolidation since i started late last year i find all this 'clear' weakness/trend disturbing!

My particular attention at the moment is on USDCHF. It's right on an ascending TL today and there is support around 1.0550, but if it breaks through these levels, i see very little to halt the southbound move.
So Dan you don't think that the SR at 1.0586 is strong enough to hold the downward move?

I still have trouble trusting my assessment of the power of a SR line. The 1.05800 level was resistance to the May 2008 high but also support for the hammer on 30th Dec 2008. There is also a lot of consolidation - a PPZ - between there and 1.03300. The bull hammer about to conclude at the end of today (10.pm GMT) might suggest a small pull back before the possible breakthrough you mention. So it's a wait for appropriate PA at that TL.

AAAAh but it is just me being very cautious maybe!! But a breakthrough would give a possible short from 1.0600 to 1.05800 at the minimum before the possible RS was tested.

Reading through this I see I have repeated much of what you said. Just me talking aloud and working things through for myself again!
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  • #3,506
  • Jun 1, 2009 3:29pm Jun 1, 2009 3:29pm
Quoting Lotuselanman
Reading through this I see I have repeated much of what you said. Just me talking aloud and working things through for myself again!
No worries LEM, i hope it's helping!

I have no idea whether that level will hold or fail and i don't care because i have a plan! I entered with the aim of taking half off at the ascending TL and moving to BE. Done and done. Stress free trading, you've gotta love it.

(It might be the wrong plan but its mine, and i traded it)
  • #3,507
  • Jun 1, 2009 4:14pm Jun 1, 2009 4:14pm
Quoting AstonDan
No worries LEM, i hope it's helping!

I have no idea whether that level will hold or fail and i don't care because i have a plan! I entered with the aim of taking half off at the ascending TL and moving to BE. Done and done. Stress free trading, you've gotta love it.

(It might be the wrong plan but its mine, and i traded it)
Good lad, Dan. A PLAN is never wrong when you make money with it.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,508
  • Jun 1, 2009 4:15pm Jun 1, 2009 4:15pm
Quoting BaliuxXx
is there an important level around .8650?
The important level is where we are at now 0.8600
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,509
  • Jun 1, 2009 4:24pm Jun 1, 2009 4:24pm
Quoting Lotuselanman
So Dan you don't think that the SR at 1.0586 is strong enough to hold the downward move?

I still have trouble trusting my assessment of the power of a SR line....
Christopher, you will "do yourself in" trying to work out what, or if, any S&R line has any "power". Let it go. All you can do is correctly identify S&R and THEN, observe what price will do at those lines (PRICE ACTION).

If price holds as support at a line, then we look for PA to go long.
If price is rejected by a resistance line, then we look for PA to go short.
If price "slices through" support or resistance, we know to look for PA or continuation signals to continue in the same direction.

HOWEVER, we must always trade in the direction of the next highest trend for the safest, lowest risk trades.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,510
  • Jun 1, 2009 4:41pm Jun 1, 2009 4:41pm
Quoting strat
If price holds as support at a line, then we look for PA to go long.
If price is rejected by a resistance line, then we look for PA to go short.
If price "slices through" support or resistance, we know to look for PA or continuation signals to continue in the same direction.

HOWEVER, we must always trade in the direction of the next highest trend for the safest, lowest risk trades.
How do you judge if price is held by a support, because price very often stalls for a bit at significant support even if it goes on to break it later. So if the bar hits the support but fails to close below then you classify it as rejected?
  • #3,511
  • Jun 1, 2009 5:04pm Jun 1, 2009 5:04pm
Quoting Naws
How do you judge if price is held by a support, because price very often stalls for a bit at significant support even if it goes on to break it later. So if the bar hits the support but fails to close below then you classify it as rejected?
It is not rejected if a price sits on support but does not break it or close below.

If a price is held by support there are two possible trades:

Price action to go long off that support level
or
A break of that support. Aggressive traders would sell that break, more conservative ones would let the break go and wait for a retest and that support to become resistance.

Phil reminded me that it is not set in stone.Sometimes price breaks support, pulls back into previous ranges then retests the same support and a chance to go long is viable.
  • #3,512
  • Jun 1, 2009 6:05pm Jun 1, 2009 6:05pm
GBP/CHF broke out of its ascending triangle today in convincing fashion. Now I would like to see a few days of advancing followed by a pullback and some sort of PA (for purposes of this thread a hammer please). Worker 20 and 50 sloping up a little more sharply now in the familiar uptrend that xxx/usd pairs have shown lately.
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  • #3,513
  • Jun 1, 2009 6:12pm Jun 1, 2009 6:12pm
I think what you talking about may be happening on USD/CAD.

I am looking at the chart and can see a nice bit of PA (dragonfly Doji) at strong S/R level. I have closed shorts on this pair and am thinking of going long. Yet I have an issue.

On 1 hand I have nice Daily PA at srong S/R level but on the other hand it gos against what the boss and big boss are doing as well as the big decline in the USD we have seen recently. In fact everything on USD/CAD says down except for this daily PA at the S/R level.

So what hand do I choose, do I take PA and S/R or leave the trade as im going against the trend. Luckily I demo trading so I watch it unfold



PA description of Dragonfly Doji.

The Dragonfly Doji is created when the open, high, and close are the same or about the same price (Where the open, high, and close are exactly the same price is quite rare). The most important part of the Dragonfly Doji is the long lower shadow.
The long lower shadow implies that the market tested to find where demand was located and found it. Bears were able to press prices downward, but an area of support was found at the low of the day and buying pressure was able to push prices back up to the opening price. Thus, the bearish advance downward was entirely rejected by the bulls
  • #3,514
  • Jun 1, 2009 6:22pm Jun 1, 2009 6:22pm
Quoting Life of Pi_p
GBP/CHF broke out of its ascending triangle today in convincing fashion. Now I would like to see a few days of advancing followed by a pullback and some sort of PA (for purposes of this thread a hammer please). Worker 20 and 50 sloping up a little more sharply now in the familiar uptrend that xxx/usd pairs have shown lately.
Careful - price is at psycho 1.7600 and area of previous major support - we need to see what it will do here and then look for PA after that.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,515
  • Jun 1, 2009 6:23pm Jun 1, 2009 6:23pm
Quoting elitejets
It is not rejected if a price sits on support but does not break it or close below.

If a price is held by support there are two possible trades:

Price action to go long off that support level
or
A break of that support. Aggressive traders would sell that break, more conservative ones would let the break go and wait for a retest and that support to become resistance.

Phil reminded me that it is not set in stone.Sometimes price breaks support, pulls back into previous ranges then retests the same support and a chance to go long is viable.
Good answer, Nicola but who is Phil? Won't Mark get jealous?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,516
  • Edited 7:14pm Jun 1, 2009 6:29pm | Edited 7:14pm
[quote=el_duende;2771185]I think what you talking about may be happening on USD/CAD.

I am looking at the chart and can see a nice bit of PA (dragonfly Doji) at strong S/R level. I have closed shorts on this pair and am thinking of going long. Yet I have an issue.

On 1 hand I have nice Daily PA at srong S/R level but on the other hand it gos against what the boss and big boss are doing as well as the big decline in the USD we have seen recently. In fact everything on USD/CAD says down except for this daily PA at the S/R level.

So what hand do I choose, do I take PA and S/R or leave the trade as im going against the trend. Luckily I demo trading so I watch it unfold

el_duende, my Scouser friend, you SHOULD know which hand to choose! If you work, have you ever had a fight with your BOSS and your boss's BOSS?

Anyway, don't let that feeble excuse for a hammer fool you - even Bond wouldn't put his name on that! Look back on USDCAD and see how before she gobbled up these type of bars - history repeats itself
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,517
  • Jun 1, 2009 6:46pm Jun 1, 2009 6:46pm
Quoting strat
Careful - price is at psycho 1.7600 and area of previous major support - we need to see what it will do here and then look for PA after that.
I have the support at 1.7500 and thought this was looking at being a good break out trade of an ascending triangle like Life of Pi_p posted. Boss and Big boss happy looking up.

If I have the wrong S/R then 1.76 will make a big difference on the current outlook. I will be patient and see what develops
  • #3,518
  • Jun 1, 2009 7:07pm Jun 1, 2009 7:07pm
We have some shooting stars and hammers developing on USD pairs, I won't be trading against the trend but maybe a small retrace will give us a chance to re-enter main trend if it goes that way. Unfortunately I didn't get a good chance to enter it early.
  • #3,519
  • Jun 1, 2009 7:43pm Jun 1, 2009 7:43pm
Quoting Naws
We have some shooting stars and hammers developing on USD pairs, I won't be trading against the trend but maybe a small retrace will give us a chance to re-enter main trend if it goes that way. Unfortunately I didn't get a good chance to enter it early.

Overall, I find this a good thought. One looks like a star at times when grabbing the quick reversal, but it takes more mental anguish and better money management skills to succeed consistently. These are probably best viewed as quick pops for the nimble trader. Why surf the ripple when one can surf the wave?
  • #3,520
  • Jun 1, 2009 7:58pm Jun 1, 2009 7:58pm
Quoting Alexandra
Overall, I find this a good thought. One looks like a star at times when grabbing the quick reversal, but it takes more mental anguish and better money management skills to succeed consistently. These are probably best viewed as quick pops for the nimble trader. Why surf the ripple when one can surf the wave?
Why surf the ripple when one can surf the wave?

Oh, Alexandra, you will do well on here! Only been a few posts but already you are talking our lingo!

Our Ryan (Surfing Instructor son), couldn't say it any better!

On my data, the Hammers and Shooting Stars are so weak they are fading by the minute. Too much stress for me to think about trading these - I'll wait to trade the respective rallies and retraces so I can be with my friend (the trend).
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
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