Extracted Thread (per thread starter's request)

Pivots for today from 5pm... on a 2hr chart with a fib that's getting a little long in the tooth but I'll keep it thru this week at least. Green line is Central Pivot @ 3890.

Aqua bars are convergence levels to watch.

Not trading the rest of this week as I'll be out and about until the open next week at least... trade careful.

An additional fib chart to ponder as this week winds down...

Stumbled across this mostly unused 4hr MT4 chart while housecleaning my charts and was amazed to see how well it was still working.

Throwing it out here as another example of how well the notion of "growing the fib" works when you can find the levels that represent the harmonics that price is working within... Anchors are shown in the yellow circles if you want to try it on..

Note: The 162% extension is up at 1.4013 in the fwiw department... 179% extension @ 4092.

Quoting ak4x

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Note: The 162% extension is up at 1.4013 in the fwiw department... 179% extension @ 4092.

Ignored

We’ve had one barely respectable retrace since the last post and wonder of wonders, price recovered and clawed it's way higher yet cleanly breaking and clearing 1.40 with ease and never looking back as of the weekly close.

Burning question now of course is "What's next?" I sure don't know but I do know there is some heavy weather to get thru if we’re to see any holding of the High Ground which will likely go at least a little higher before any downside sets in, simply becuz it can’t hardly give up at this point.

Personally speaking, the dry limb I’m currently perched on has Downside written on it after this most recent Hubbub has run its course tho. I’m NOT saying the USD will always enjoy it’s current Reserve Currency status or continue getting mistaken for a “Safe Haven” but I’m also not thinking it’ll lose all that over night... Rocky weaving and on the ropes is not the same as Rocky on the mat and down for the count, no matter what the critics are screaming. Throw a scare or two into the markets and let's see what happens then...

Let’s look at some things…
On Sept 20 2007, price flirted with 1.40 two days in a row w/o touching it, then blew thru on the third day with ease. Here’s the stats…



Remember Price has only penetrated the 1.40 level a handful of times. I’m not sure it’s really earned it’s bones as a x000 psych level myself as I’m not all that impressed with it to date. September 10, 11, and 12 2008 seem to be its claim to fame so far. Other than that, it ain't really livin up to its billing imo... kinda lame.

Here’s a detail chart showing some long term MA’s I’ve been playing with and am posting for the first time.

The chart following this one is the same chart but zoomed way out to get the whole picture. I’ve colored 3 zones here I’m going to be watching real close TFN.

The green box is where we’re curently at and where I anticipate seeing at least the top of at the yellow and pink MA’s. 4300/50 is a historical S/R zone of interest and altho there isn’t a wealth of data to look back to, we can work with what we have.

I anticipate we’ll see 4300/50 w/o much ado and fairly quickly at that, before we see any retrace from the 4100 break. Why give up hard won ground so quickly?



Tapping the 4350 level hits the 548 and 365sma’s and would be stretching the top of the massive fib convergence zone which actually starts at ar’d the 4220/50 level. That would also make a good retrace target as resistance turns support.

On the other hand, any break and clearing above that into the yellow zone begins to change the Picture and make us all nervous as it approaches that UTL.

Depending on the wick tops you draw it from, that TL would intersect at somewhere between 4500 and 4580ish with lots of Historic Fib levels in that range as well which is why I’m looking at zones for now… They offer more wiggle room. Reaching those levels would make me look at the 4350 level on a retrace unless of course it collapsed back thru all that to lower levels like it did previously. Too soon to say.

Any break and clear into the Red zone (4550/60) tho and it's Shields Up as we enter the Twilight Zone up to the 4650/4850ish level and above that go where No Man has gone before since the mid 40's ranging action of late '07 that ultimately blew thru 1.50 and into orbit at 1.60xx before plunging back into the atmosphere in a 4000 pip fiery ball of unwinding Carry Trade Havoc.

Hats on... seat belts tight, seats and trays in the upright and locked position cuz... BOHICA!!

Chart below is fairly self explanatory... click it a couple times for the hi-res version.

We are now coming to a great area of supply in the monthly chart...we will probably start seeing some buy stops getting triggered in the smaller timeframes so larger players fill the shorts. I will still trade upwards with the smaller timeframes but I will be cautious with price action as it travels higher with out some sort of retracement ....I will follow price action and be ready to fallow the big move down that should come soon at least to areas of interest of the 4 hour traders and hopefully a larger push down. Looking for price to indicate good price action to give us a push back down to the 1.62 area to 1.61

Hope you guys dont mind...I am simply trying to get the thread going again

Here is the other pair I am hawking to see clear price action...we are at the 50 percent fibb from all of last years move down making a bargain for larger players ...will be looking to sell this puppy during tomorrow session if the price action comes along...we should 1.4050 area to then start looking to buy the dips...

Not at all sherm... nice posts. We all get busy with other projects from time to time or a bad case of "Forum Fatigue" (speaking for myself there), and if no one's Home atm, the key is always under the mat for those who need a shelter from the Crap Storm some of these General Discussion threads are turning into. Beer and Ale in the cooler, and Bemac and Cobra have the Good Stuff hidden somewhere.

If I or anybody else here just wanted to fill the thread up, I'd simply drop the vouch limit...

One of my Alaskan bush pilot buddies is fond of quoting the well known maixm... "flying is hours and hours of boredom interrupted by moments of sheer terror..."

When everything is ranging, there's just not that much to post about until something changes, and the assumption here is that most of us (hopefully) are astute enough to know that and can just carry on accordingly until something worthwhile comes up.

We are trying to get away from the shorter term "chat type" trades tho, so unless there's a breakout, trend turn (or fizzle) or something in the works, 4hrish and up works good...

And the Table is Always Open for a good instructional type post on some topic or another, or just plain ole shootin the breeze on something of interest.
Don't forget... if it gets too serious, we may have to stop and wet our collective whistles tho...

Hi guys.

Not too much to say. Flew in from Japan and got jetlag.

What's been new and exciting?

Will wait for price to make a retacement back into the back of the trendline...I will then seek price action and sell it back to the 4050 area if price agrees

I am now long in the gbpusd since its now a bargain for the 1 hour chart traders...keep in mind I know the market is walking into supply in the larger timeframes so if the market tells me to stop and reverse I will do so aslong as momentum is high and the market shows no strong signs of ranging...

I have now moved my stop to break even

Alright I have now taken 50 percent profits off the table

Alright I have now moved my stop up in the remaider part of my long position...

Momentum is a bitt slow so I have taken more profits off the market...

Market is too predictable...it now sells after I take some profits...makes me feel like a market maker lol

I have now reduced my risk once again...I only have 25 percent of the trade running...

Alright I have now taken another 15 percent of my remaider 25 percent in the trade. Total trade left is 10 percent and total pips up is 150...I have reduced my risk in the remaider 10 percent as well

Here is something I will be waiting for...I will seek good price action in this area...

Still comfortable with my previous analysis on the Weekly (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=2770681#post2770681) and the Daily (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=2768693#post2768693)... bull move apparently still valid, could start get exciting here a'rd Friday's Asian/London sessions...

More detail on those charts can be found here from last week (http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2767434&postcount=683) if interested. This current chart simply reflects those expectations being met. So far so good...

I believe we still have some realistic upside to at least the 45xx/4550ish area before Serious Resistance would be expected, and any retracement from there could even pull back to the 4150/4200 area w/o constituting a loss of momentum imo. Still as I anticipate a collapse from somewhere up here (for now) I'm still pondering longer term moves thru say... the fall), I'd be very alert for the signs of the stampede to begin. Timing is everything and watch out you don't stand in front of that Bad Boy. I'll try to get some further thoughts on this sometime soon If I can pin them down.

Any fall back thru my early warning line the 11sma (light blue) and it's reentry time. Note the 34 and 50 ma's way down there a'rd 35xx. That's a strong drag on price at some point when the booster stages run out of fuel here. I may tweak this chart a bit as the day goes by, so if it looks different later, it probably is.

All that said... remember I'm still Bearish overall on this pair... the two previous high TF runups to the UTL's and heavy Hzl R levels have all been followed by "collapses", not "retracements", so when it comes and I believe it WILL come... I anticipate Kablooey.

Do you know where your hat is?

On request of AK, I also post the short article snip I read here..

Universa Investments LP, which has links to “Black Swan” author and New York University professor Nassim Nicholas Taleb (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:S:d1), is starting a hedge fund to bet that efforts by governments and central banks to end the global recession will lead to hyperinflation, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing Taleb. The fund will invest in commodities and options on oil and gold stocks, the Journal said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aCXg2bVudpuw (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aCXg2bVudpuw)

My thoughts on this? I have been very bullish on oil for some time (fundamentals are just screaming up for the next 100 years on until it ends) so even though if there would be no hyperinflation, taleb will probably win some money. I also assume we will see gold over 1000, if (when) the 1k will be broken, the gold will go up for some time.

I don't personally believe in worldwide hyperinflation but I think taleb will make some good money because of the sectors he's investing. I do however believe that we will see hyperinflation in US [and milder but still high inflation elsewhere] because of the loose monetary policy US has been doing, also because lack of welfare systems, people will be much poorer than in many other countries and unable to consume after they are laid off from their work. The following article is related to this if anyone is interested

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/23/business/economy/23charts.html

The following years will not be easy for global economy - I personally think it will be at least 3-5 years before this is over in some sense and many many scary events [like hyperinflation] will happen before that.

Here is mark fabers opinions about this (I respect his opinions quite much)

(http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?N=video&T=Faber%20Sees%20U.S.%20Inflation%20Approaching%20Zimbabwe%20Levels%20&clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vNbfJ.kepSzo.asf)

AK,

Thank you for the vouch and for inviting me to your buddy list...

Wow, i fell so priviledged.....

Thank you Thank you..