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The System II (Yes with irony)

  • #2,281
  • Jun 1, 2009 6:19am Jun 1, 2009 6:19am
Quoting Ogna
Hey Feb,
I have 2 questions for you,
1)How or where did you get the information that the market was going to choppy last friday? (you were spot on!)

2)Once I remember something about every third Friday of the month? Something in regards to stocks, what is this and what effect does it usually have on the market?

Thank you Feb!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Edit* Sorry if these are n00b questions :
1)Lack of participants on the floor. Lack of interest across the board. Experience? maybe? You know, most of the "big guns" trade many markets. Especially on the floor. Knowing their habits you can anticipate their moves. There's no black and white rule for this, you just go with the flow.

2) I don't recall that.
Peace
  • #2,282
  • Jun 1, 2009 6:26am Jun 1, 2009 6:26am
Hi guys,
I just returned to my desk and saw this short opportunity.. lets see what happens...

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/attach/gif.gif
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 131.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #2,283
  • Jun 1, 2009 6:49am Jun 1, 2009 6:49am
Dear Feb!

I have a question about tight stops... I don't look for clear answer... Just discussion. What I want to know - am I in the right way, or not?

So, in one of your posts I did read these words - "I use very tight stops. I really don't care if I'll miss a move." And I did start to work with that option.

For now I see, that most of good strong runners don't walk very dip under horisontal line... Two weeks I did try to stop my trades if after trigger time price dived under horisontal line for more than 4 pips... May be it is wrong (or even stupid), but my results were so: yes, I did miss some moves (like
You said), but in most times it has protected me from bigger loss (when it reversed)... And some good moves which I catched - they gave me profit and I end up this period in positiv.

In looser's thread You tell that you place small bets every time when you trade. If I right understand thi is about Load of your trades.
But, if I will use the sane load at every trade BUT cut the looser REALLY short - not far from horisontal resistant line - is it not stupid? Have this idea chance to be live?

I think in general we trade breakouts. And the best Idea during trading breakout - placing STOPS at the breakout point, or near it...

These are my thoughts... Please, show me where I am wrong... Show right way if I walk to "hell" with my trades...

And IN GENERAL - DID I RIGHT UNDERSTAND YOUR WORDS ABOUT TIGHT STOPS???


Thank You!!!
  • #2,284
  • Jun 1, 2009 7:12am Jun 1, 2009 7:12am
Quoting Ogna
Hey Feb,
I have 2 questions for you,
1)How or where did you get the information that the market was going to choppy last friday? (you were spot on!)

2)Once I remember something about every third Friday of the month? Something in regards to stocks, what is this and what effect does it usually have on the market?

Thank you Feb!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Edit* Sorry if these are n00b questions :
Onga,

Here's an explanation of 'Triple Witching day' from answers.com
It's to do with the stock market but the volatility can affect the Fx markets I think.

Third Friday in March, June, September, and December whenOptions, Index Options, and Futures Contracts all expire simultaneously. At times there may be massive trades in index futures, options, and the underlying stocks by hedge strategists, arbitrageurs, and other investors, resulting in volatile markets on those days. In the past, all contracts expired in the same hour, but steps were taken so that contracts now expire at the open as well as the close of the day instead of all at once. Smaller-scale witching days occur in the other eight months, usually on the third Friday, when other options, index options, and futures contracts expire concurrently. See also Double Witching Day.
  • #2,285
  • Jun 1, 2009 7:26am Jun 1, 2009 7:26am
Quoting dim4ik42
Dear Feb!

For now I see, that most of good strong runners don't walk very dip under horisontal line... Two weeks I did try to stop my trades if after trigger time price dived under horisontal line for more than 4 pips... May be it is wrong (or even stupid), but my results were so: yes, I did miss some moves (like
You said), but in most times it has protected me from bigger loss (when it reversed)... And some good moves which I catched - they gave me profit and I end up this period in positiv.
hey that makes sense to me. Although I am new to this overall strategy, what you are saying makes sense; I have been thinking along those same lines... ie: you will be able to test the market for a quick runner without much risk by placing a very tight stop.

If I understand you correctly, you have a positive increase in your account since putting such tight stops on your trades? If so, maybe it is an ok thing to do.

I'd be interested in what others think though.
  • #2,286
  • Jun 1, 2009 7:45am Jun 1, 2009 7:45am
Quoting dim4ik42
Dear Feb!

I have a question about tight stops... I don't look for clear answer... Just discussion. What I want to know - am I in the right way, or not?

So, in one of your posts I did read these words - "I use very tight stops. I really don't care if I'll miss a move."...
OK.

1) Don't mix the loser's thread with this one. The loser's thread is the best effort I can do to put in witting how I trade. I use tiny stops and I am in line to be the first for the move. As how I know if the move is going to start here or there, I don't known neither care.

2) I mentioned many times on my post(s) that I started this thread with a hyper-frequency trade mentality like I am. That wasn't right. This thread - based on 5 minutes, is not as hyper as I scalp, hence I wanted to pull myself off that in order to give , especially the stops, a lil' more room to go as well a profits.

3) I don't think is a bad idea to put a stop in a level like a resistance line or something. But still remember, you're trading on 5-minutes. Still, don't dwell too much on a loser and also, don't let the market take ALL your profits back.
Peace
  • #2,287
  • Jun 1, 2009 7:55am Jun 1, 2009 7:55am
Quoting Ogna
Hey Feb,
I have 2 questions for you,
1)How or where did you get the information that the market was going to choppy last friday? (you were spot on!)

2)Once I remember something about every third Friday of the month? Something in regards to stocks, what is this and what effect does it usually have on the market?

Thank you Feb!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Edit* Sorry if these are n00b questions :
2)options expiration day but not every month...
  • #2,288
  • Jun 1, 2009 8:08am Jun 1, 2009 8:08am
Quoting feb2865
OK.

1) Don't mix the loser's thread with this one. The loser's thread is the best effort I can do to put in witting how I trade. I use tiny stops and I am in line to be the first for the move. As how I know if the move is going to start here or there, I don't known neither care.

2) I mentioned many times on my post(s) that I started this thread with a hyper-frequency trade mentality like I am.........
Thanks a lot!

So if I right understand - exit (no initial stop, but manual exit) out of trade in point some lower (no more than 10 pips) broken resistant, and some higher (no higher than 10 pips) broken support by testing the market for breakouts is not stupid idea, and if it suit for me - than I can trade it this variant. Just simple - if I'm looking for breakouts, I see no reason for me to stay in trade which goes against me... and did dive dip under Resistant or Support (horisontal lines in System II).
... and if I right understand your post about "expectancy" - we are speaking now about that point where trade becomes an ART... And every trader must to reduse for self where to cut the loser short... Right???

Sorry if I'am wrong.... I am just in process of looking for....

Thanks!
  • #2,289
  • Jun 1, 2009 8:39am Jun 1, 2009 8:39am
Quoting lawl
hey that makes sense to me. Although I am new to this overall strategy, what you are saying makes sense; I have been thinking along those same lines... ie: you will be able to test the market for a quick runner without much risk by placing a very tight stop.

If I understand you correctly, you have a positive increase in your account since putting such tight stops on your trades? If so, maybe it is an ok thing to do.

I'd be interested in what others think though.
Yes. I have positive increase, but - 1) I did miss some great moves (they did dive more than 10 pips under horisontal line after trigger); 2) this is still short period of testing for giving these results big note; 3) I can be wrong in my thoughts...
  • #2,290
  • Jun 1, 2009 8:51am Jun 1, 2009 8:51am
Quoting dim4ik42
Thanks a lot!

So if I right understand - exit (no initial stop, but manual exit) out of trade in point some lower (no more than 10 pips) broken resistant, and some higher (no higher than 10 pips) broken support by testing the market for breakouts is not stupid idea, and if it suit for me - than I can trade it this variant....
I won't go as fix stop-loss - use a logical stop instead.

Expectancy yes it's definitely an art.
Peace
  • #2,291
  • Jun 1, 2009 8:56am Jun 1, 2009 8:56am
Quoting feb2865
I won't go as fix stop-loss - use a logical stop instead.

Expectancy yes it's definitely an art.
Feb,

What about a pip by pip trailing stop?


Unus pro omnibus, omnes pro uno
  • #2,292
  • Jun 1, 2009 8:57am Jun 1, 2009 8:57am
Quoting dim4ik42
Yes. I have positive increase, but - 1) I did miss some great moves (they did dive more than 10 pips under horisontal line after trigger); 2) this is still short period of testing for giving these results big note; 3) I can be wrong in my thoughts...
Well, was there a chance to enter again on those trades that hit your sl?

It seems to me that if you put a tight sl.. like 5 pips + spread and your sl is hit, then you could always reenter if the market moved back down to your original entry. I mean, the whole point of this strategy is to try to test the market many times to find a runner. Putting an ultra tight stop could either 1) reduce your risk while letting you catch runners or 2) stop you out too often right before a runner... however if this is the case, couldn't you just reenter?

I think from most of the posts I've read, that people using this strategy end up closing out a negative postion by -10 pips or so. Why not just put a hard stop there?
  • #2,293
  • Jun 1, 2009 8:58am Jun 1, 2009 8:58am
Quoting moneda
Feb,

What about a pip by pip trailing stop?


Yeah you can use that. Just make sure you put the initial stop too close to the fire.
Peace
  • #2,294
  • Jun 1, 2009 9:01am Jun 1, 2009 9:01am
Quoting feb2865
Yeah you can use that. Just make sure you put the initial stop too close to the fire.
Feb,

Did you mean..... not too close to the fire?
Unus pro omnibus, omnes pro uno
  • #2,295
  • Jun 1, 2009 9:01am Jun 1, 2009 9:01am
Quoting feb2865
I won't go as fix stop-loss - use a logical stop instead.

Expectancy yes it's definitely an art.
If you want it tight, how about the bottom of the previous or current candle when your limit order was hit?
  • #2,296
  • Jun 1, 2009 9:57am Jun 1, 2009 9:57am
Ok Guys, the way I see it there are two ways we can do this.. lately I have been debating on two philosophies of trade managment.. and i have put to work each one.
below I put together two charts. examine both charts think it through and give us your feedback based of which one you prefer and later on hopefully we will get febs perspective.

chart 1:
Give room to the price to show his reall hand in pursue to catch the big runner(40+pips).. at the risk of leaving money on the table or a modest loss? staying with the trade as long as given L/H? exit when most recent H/L is broken?
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/attach/gif.gif

chart 2:
Tight stop & tight trade managment to catch small waves.. taking quick profits 10-15pips.. losing no more than 10-15pips? then wait for the next quick oppourtunity and not ending up with much runners?
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/attach/gif.gif
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 131.gif Size: 25 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 132.gif Size: 24 KB
  • #2,297
  • Jun 1, 2009 10:12am Jun 1, 2009 10:12am
What about using the tight stop when u place the order but when u have a profit u trail the stop in order to catch the runners?
  • #2,298
  • Jun 1, 2009 10:23am Jun 1, 2009 10:23am
I had 2 trades that were +40 and they both closed out at +1 pips.........
and I lost like 40 pips : did anyone make pips today?
  • #2,299
  • Jun 1, 2009 10:26am Jun 1, 2009 10:26am
Quoting Ogna
I had 2 trades that were +40 and they both closed out at +1 pips.........
and I lost like 40 pips : did anyone make pips today?
Why did you let them go from +40 to +1? I would use a 20 pip trailing stop or something.
  • #2,300
  • Jun 1, 2009 10:30am Jun 1, 2009 10:30am
lol im an idiot x.x
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