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Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

  • #3,481
  • May 31, 2009 1:53pm May 31, 2009 1:53pm
Quoting FlyForex
Hi Strat,
First of all thanks for your help..
Last week i just pull the trigger in EURCAD..
I look for charts and i readed.... in Weekly TF... I just see bearish swing... with 20ema confirming the direction... after bull harami with is high in new resistence we had bearish engulfing pattern confirming the bears mode... I look for daily TF(last weekend) i see that last daily bar was bearish engulfing pattern with last day high in one resistence zone....
Flyforex
Thank you but please do not post charts with indicators on this thread UNLESS you can explain to us their use and benefit. Thank you.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,482
  • May 31, 2009 2:00pm May 31, 2009 2:00pm
Don't get sucked in with all last week's hype and hysteria on EURUSD and GBPUSD.

If you want to get in, wait for PASR. It is at these times and levels that the 95% who lose at trading start jumping in.

Patience and Discipline will reward those who wait.

15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,483
  • May 31, 2009 2:28pm May 31, 2009 2:28pm
Hi Strat,
Thanks for the reply - I'm not trading the FTSE, I've been watching as the indices hold the key to the wider recovery piece currently. I was hoping to alert others to the potential trade once we get a move. I am only trading stars and hammer so I'm waiting for a nice fakey to form a S/Star on the daily at the top TL or a hammer on the bottom; otherwise I'll pass on the trade!
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #3,484
  • May 31, 2009 3:28pm May 31, 2009 3:28pm
There are several agressive trades we could put forward tonight but none are suitable for the conservative stress-free method we are teaching here.

The funnymentals suggest that the trend is a weakening USD due to hyperinflation fears due to the Fed printing press working overtime. This in turn makes US stocks and exports cheap but commodities like oil more expensive.

Therefore we will continue trading the USD weakness supported by BOSS and BIG BOSS actions. During the coming week look for opportunities to buy against the USD while watching your risk.

Less is more with patience and discipline
  • #3,485
  • May 31, 2009 3:38pm May 31, 2009 3:38pm
Quoting strat
Sounds like the same problem as AstonDan then - did you have a PLAN? If so, didn't you trust it/believe it? If no PLAN why not? Why trade without a PLAN?

The break of the low of the green bar 3 bars back at 1.1097 was a place to add on to positions or enter a new position.

Price is nearing support at 1.0880, let's call it psycho 1.09, so we need to watch PA here for future direction.
Strat,

I know, i too like Dan got scared of my profits being evaporated by another retracement. I had a plan but did not TRADE my PLAN. from now on i am going to create a journal of all of my trades and reasons for doing so. i have been meaning to do so just have not sat down and done so.
I have also created an Excel doc of my yield curve as suggested and will continue to concentrate on keeping it in an upward sloping direction and concentrate on % not PIPS.

I do have a question though about the support level of 1.0900 you mentioned. I do not have that level on my charts the nearest levels i have are 1.1000 and 1.0700. What am i missing here?
  • #3,486
  • May 31, 2009 4:01pm May 31, 2009 4:01pm
Quoting CrudeCraig
Strat,

I know, i too like Dan got scared of my profits being evaporated by another retracement. I had a plan but did not TRADE my PLAN. from now on i am going to create a journal of all of my trades and reasons for doing so. i have been meaning to do so just have not sat down and done so.
I have also created an Excel doc of my yield curve as suggested and will continue to concentrate on keeping it in an upward sloping direction and concentrate on % not PIPS.

I do have a question though about the support level of 1.0900 you mentioned. I do not...
When you have finished with your PLAN - do you trust it? do you believe it? If your answer to either is "No", you MUST change your PLAN until you trust and believe it.

When you trust and believe your PLAN, the litmus test question is "Will I stick with this no matter what happens?" If you still cannot do this then most likely your RISK is too HIGH and you should drop down to a lower $/pip value.

Until you can trust, believe and accept your PLAN and stick with it no matter happens, your PLAN is not worth the paper it is written on.

See attached chart for 1.0990 support - note this also goes back to Jan/Feb 1978 if you can go that far back.

Hope this helps
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad psycho1.0900 support.gif Size: 22 KB
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,487
  • May 31, 2009 4:49pm May 31, 2009 4:49pm
Quote
EliteJets: ......... GBPCHF has been constrained by a stronger CHF although she looked all set to get higher.........


Big Boss: After the doji/spinning top in Feb and the subsequent bear almost-hammer in March there have been two bull candles with the May bull candle having a wick which did not break the H of the Feb spinning top. Not a conclusive bullish sign therefore until that Feb H is broken.

Boss: Last weeks candle, a doji does not break the H of the 8th Feb bear candle. The upward pressure is there but there is a reluctance to breakout of the 1.94700 constraint.

Daily: On 27th May the strong R of 1.73400 and the DT line from August 2008 was broken but price has fallen back with the wick of Friday's doji/spinning top only just breaking that line of Resistance. The shadow is supported by the 20MA and price is above the 50 and Boss 30 also. The 150 MA is also at the R level of 1.7340.

Conclusion: although there has been a pattern of HLs from the SL at the end of 2008, there has been a failure of the highs to break the 1.73400. The resultant ascending triangle suggests a pressure to BO if only the 1.7340 level can be broken.
Wait for PA around this level to confirm a BO. SL should be placed well below the 1.7340 R line and relate to the shadow of the relevant candle. However strong R at 1.75700 which is close to the 23.6 Fib would be a first target giving a R:R which is unlikely to be good enough to enable stress-free trading.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,488
  • May 31, 2009 6:14pm May 31, 2009 6:14pm
Quoting Lotuselanman
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Big Boss: After the doji/spinning top in Feb and the subsequent bear almost-hammer in March there have been two bull candles with the May bull candle having a wick which did not break the H of the Feb spinning top....
A couple of corrections, LEM
I think you mean Boss 20 not 30.
1.7340 is not strong resistance, it is the level above it at 1.7430ish where price was held back on Feb 9 and previously before that. As we said before, we really need to see resolution of this ascending triangle before getting excited
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,489
  • May 31, 2009 8:16pm May 31, 2009 8:16pm
This is the one I have for GBPCHF. As Strat always indicates, S/R lines are more important than trendlines (as you can see a well-respected down TL was broken, but SR hasn't let it go up, yet) .

The only problem with this kind of perfect setups is that everyone is aware of 1.75 level and when that level is penetrated I believe we'll see huge volatility. Considering already wide daily ranges for this pair, it would be wiser to wait until dust settles around 1.75 level such as watching penetration and retracing and then opening position with PA.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,490
  • May 31, 2009 8:34pm May 31, 2009 8:34pm
I was hoping for a retracement to 1.5650-1.5700 after breaking of both up TL and SR level on May 27th and watching PA at those levels to take a short trade, so far no retracement yet and still waiting.

If it doesn't retrace and go directly to 1.50, then it will be a missed opportunity (there will always another one somewhere), but it depends on your trading style. As we always try to explain in this thread, there are two ways to trade such setups, either taking the trade as soon as you believe the penetration is underway which gives you early entry and not missing opportunities but may cause you trouble due to false breakouts which are quite common in forex OR you can wait for the pullback to SR level after breakout and watch PA around that level . So, first strategy is aggressive whereas the second one is more conservative and safer. I prefer second one.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,491
  • May 31, 2009 8:56pm May 31, 2009 8:56pm
I am also using futures charts of currencies to analyse volumes. Attached one is the Euro currency which reflects EURUSD pair in forex.

Look at the second last bar (Thursday's daily bar). It is a perfect example of conservative entry that I have mentioned on my previous EURCAD post. Although that bar is not a hammer, look at the previous two bars. As Strat reminds us all the time, reading the bars including current and surrounding ones and trying to understand what they are telling us are crucial in success for PA trading.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EUR Futures Chart.jpg Size: 174 KB
  • #3,492
  • May 31, 2009 10:31pm May 31, 2009 10:31pm
Quoting strat
Thanks, Paul. Let's take this opportunity to reinforce again that you must ONLY trade what YOU see on YOUR charts. For trading purposes, ignore what another person shows on his chart BUT use it for learning and improving on.
What about getting several MT4 demos from different brokers with different close times so you can see all the different possible chart patterns

This way you dont have to miss good setups just because of your main broker doesnt show good PA
  • #3,493
  • Jun 1, 2009 3:09am Jun 1, 2009 3:09am
I am encouraged by the PA from the Continentals and Commodity currencies as they run into longer term S/R; AUDUSD has run relatively easily through it's weekly 50 fibo and exceeded the target from the weekly double bottom to my eye. Overall, I continue to be impressed by the imposing daily chart construction for USD bears. My attention is now on the short JPY positions across the board, which to me still carry entry potential.
  • #3,494
  • Jun 1, 2009 3:28am Jun 1, 2009 3:28am
Quoting Blackeagle
I am also using futures charts of currencies to analyse volumes. Attached one is the Euro currency which reflects EURUSD pair in forex.
Quoting Blackeagle

Look at the second last bar (Thursday's daily bar). It is a perfect example of conservative entry that I have mentioned on my previous EURCAD post. Although that bar is not a hammer, look at the previous two bars. As Strat reminds us all the time, reading the bars including current and surrounding ones and trying to understand...
Hi Blackeagle - great posts, thanks. It all adds up to having the patience to wait for the BOs, then get in on a re-test. I've been back reading some charts over the weekend and I have found the best and most reliable shooting stars for example, play out on retraces with the underlying trend. The trouble with always trying to pick the first shooting star that one sees in a strong uptrend is the risk involved (ie picking tops). They look great, they have confluence but sometimes you get shaken out on them. Better to wait for them to trigger and then get in on the re-trace.

As an aside I have an e-book from the 1990s that I was sent a few years ago, but in my hunt for the ‘grail’ back then, I read and dumped it. It was all too hard as it involved PA and volume. It's by a guy called Tom Williams I think, called 'Undeclared Secrets that drive Stock Markets' and is linked to a website called tradetowin.com (now defunct, and not T2W.com). It's a very interesting read and highlights some good PA and volume analysis. There are no MAs used etc, just PA and volume. I believe he created a piece of software that he now sells under a different name, but I think his method is sound.

It does however have a flawback in Forex with volume as has been discussed here before. Not sure how the work crosses from shares over to forex but I would imagine it’s all the same. It's interesting to see you using the futures market. Is this volume info more reliable?

His analysis is that we have no hope trading against the big boys, so we should use volume to try and suss out what the big-boys are doing. He said strength is shown on down days on low volume. ie -we have had a down move but it's on low volume relative to the volume around it. Vice-versa for up days on low volume - this shows weakness as the move up on a narrow price range on low volume shows no pro money buying. There is lots of examples of fake-outs, retests etc and what to look for – classic price traps to steal the weak money from the weak hands as he puts it!

The danger with this is that I read recently that large players will try and hide their tracks or even make a move so the volume shows big to the retail guys but then scale out once people are trapped by the info. I did hear of people taking opposite positions in futures and CFD markets so once again things are never as they seem!

The upshot of all this is that it's a good read with sound reasoning if you are interested in using volume. I'm not looking into it currently as I'm concentrating on PA alone - don't want to confuse the issue with volume data too!
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #3,495
  • Jun 1, 2009 5:35am Jun 1, 2009 5:35am
Quoting Grimweasel

Is this volume info more reliable?

All I can say is that it is much more reliable compared to broker based FX volumes. Thanks for the extra info.
  • #3,496
  • Jun 1, 2009 8:28am Jun 1, 2009 8:28am
Quoting Alexandra
I am encouraged by the PA from the Continentals and Commodity currencies as they run into longer term S/R; AUDUSD has run relatively easily through it's weekly 50 fibo and exceeded the target from the weekly double bottom to my eye. Overall, I continue to be impressed by the imposing daily chart construction for USD bears. My attention is now on the short JPY positions across the board, which to me still carry entry potential.
Agree with you 100%
Welcome to the thread!
Nicola
  • #3,497
  • Jun 1, 2009 8:40am Jun 1, 2009 8:40am
Quoting Alexandra
I am encouraged by the PA from the Continentals and Commodity currencies as they run into longer term S/R; AUDUSD has run relatively easily through it's weekly 50 fibo and exceeded the target from the weekly double bottom to my eye. Overall, I continue to be impressed by the imposing daily chart construction for USD bears. My attention is now on the short JPY positions across the board, which to me still carry entry potential.
Hi Alexandra and welcome to the thread.

After knowing nothing but whipsaws and consolidation since i started late last year i find all this 'clear' weakness/trend disturbing!

My particular attention at the moment is on USDCHF. It's right on an ascending TL today and there is support around 1.0550, but if it breaks through these levels, i see very little to halt the southbound move.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf.gif Size: 17 KB
  • #3,498
  • Jun 1, 2009 8:56am Jun 1, 2009 8:56am
Quoting Alexandra
I am encouraged by the PA from the Continentals and Commodity currencies as they run into longer term S/R; AUDUSD has run relatively easily through it's weekly 50 fibo and exceeded the target from the weekly double bottom to my eye. Overall, I continue to be impressed by the imposing daily chart construction for USD bears. My attention is now on the short JPY positions across the board, which to me still carry entry potential.
Hi Alexandra,

Especially short JPY against USD looks interesting, but I'd like to see how today's close will be. 94.50 is so important as there is a confluence of TL, SR and fib 50.

Welcome tho the thread.
  • #3,499
  • Jun 1, 2009 8:57am Jun 1, 2009 8:57am
Quoting Alexandra
I am encouraged by the PA from the Continentals and Commodity currencies as they run into longer term S/R; AUDUSD has run relatively easily through it's weekly 50 fibo and exceeded the target from the weekly double bottom to my eye. Overall, I continue to be impressed by the imposing daily chart construction for USD bears. My attention is now on the short JPY positions across the board, which to me still carry entry potential.
Thanks for posting.

USDJPY shows signs of bucking the USD bearish trend in that 94.50 support seems to be holding with buyers taking control. The high of May 28 will give us further clues.

EURUSD and GBPUSD keep on going up and up - now where I have heard that before? Oh yes, Dr. Joe!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,500
  • Jun 1, 2009 9:09am Jun 1, 2009 9:09am
Quoting Alexandra
I am encouraged by the PA from the Continentals and Commodity currencies as they run into longer term S/R; AUDUSD has run relatively easily through it's weekly 50 fibo and exceeded the target from the weekly double bottom to my eye. Overall, I continue to be impressed by the imposing daily chart construction for USD bears. My attention is now on the short JPY positions across the board, which to me still carry entry potential.
You have done this before.....so glad your here!!

Lets get this party started....pizza per tutti!!
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