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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #31,641
  • Edited 11:43am May 31, 2009 11:16am | Edited 11:43am
Quoting g_j_hook@yah
hi Alexandra, was wondering what trigger you used and when you first got on board?? i seem to have just sat and watched this pair falling, ignoring every chance it gave to get in!!??i particularly liked the BEOB on 18/5....still didnt enter though.
i was also wondering what has been your largest stop loss during this trade??
cheers
jon

also jarroo, are you still in this one??them numbers in the pip column must be looking healthy by now!!?? hehe
can i ask if you added to this possition since you entered?? and again how wide...
Hook, Sorry - I took the weekend off. This is a true long termer. The original entry was way back on 12/5 on that failure at the top of the triangle. The market went sideways to some extent. I was a bit lucky on that one, as I think many saw the daily pattern as an ascending triangle, which was reasonable. Lately this has been a pure S/R trade. Look at the candles on 4/1 and 4/21. The last leg came on 5/18 at failure of the old support. I could have entered better at certain points along the way (that always happens in hindsight), but overall the trend has proved helpful. I am concerned about the heavy support above 1.08, so I will likely just manage the open positions from here.

I continue to believe that one has to take a stance on trend. Then the picture becomes clear, and the PA is supportive. Sometimes, one is just wrong, so lack of ego and maintaining confidence become critical. On this one, there have been no breaks of daily resistance since April 1.

On the stop question, it varies - I use S/R points for stops rather than designated numbers. It just seems purer to me. I wish I could use a small number with exquisite timing, but I can't! One thing I have learned the hard way is always to have a stop. No matter how good things look and how crazy one thinks people would be for taking the market the other way - that's when it usually happens - fast!
  • #31,642
  • May 31, 2009 11:19am May 31, 2009 11:19am
Quoting TiaForex
I wanted to add something here about the minimum requirements based on my own experience.

Daily and weekly forex trading as we do here is a low frequency trading strategy especially if we are super picky like we're taught. Mbqb11 for example had his last daily/weekly forex trade around 6 weeks ago (can't remember if you posted that here or PF Mike and if you want me to edit to remove it I will).

Think about that for a moment. If you're trying to trade like Mike and be super picky (an admirable objective) and you don't get a daily/weekly trade...
I agree with this post Aaron. Just a few points of clarification. I might be super picky on daily/weekly but I trade much more on the 4hr and 1hr. It is simply where I am comfortable. I am much more comfortable waiting for 3-5 daily/weekly trades, while spending most of my trading on the h4, and h1. For those that only trade on the daily/weekly you might sitll only take 3-5 a month, or maybe 1-2, or maybe 10. It comes down to your strategy as a whole.

The outlined process by James, isn't a mathematical formula to success. It really is common sense. If after 3 months of demo you had 3 consecutive months, and you did things the right way. Well that is 3 solid months of not fooling yourself to think you are ready to trade. Then you move to a SMALL live account. Well where are you after another 3-6 months. Like you said a losing month doesn't mean failure. Things need to be looked at as a whole. I ended up this month 1.86% That could have EASILY been a losing month(in fact a last couple trades saved it). So because the prior 4 months were winning months, say that was a losing month does that now mean everything prior is a waste and it's back to the drawing board. Of course not as you said, it is the whole of your trading. The demo- small live process, is to keep one in the game and from fooling themselves. The reality is most people that can spend enough time with this now understand that it needs to be taken serious. It is those that think after 2-3 weeks of good trades, they are ready to open their 50k 100k account and pick out their next car. The number 1 thing I take from that process from James, is the ability to see this as a business and not a game.

Thanks Aaron always enjoy your posts
Mike
  • #31,643
  • May 31, 2009 11:25am May 31, 2009 11:25am
Hey Mike,

I thought you only trade the daily and bigger time frames. I didn't know you alos trade the 1 and 4h time frames.
  • #31,644
  • May 31, 2009 11:28am May 31, 2009 11:28am
Quoting triger88990
Here is my first analysis on the GBP/CHF weekly chart.
I spot an PB with a good confluence that suport it:
- it's on an area of PPZ
- we have a round number 1.7500
- we have confluence with 61.8 fib number
- if we look at the bigger picture we see that it in a down trend
So I say that this is an A tread.I will manage this tread on the weekley chart because here we spot the PB,but I'm concerned about this large time frame so I think that will see some ret. and to paly this PB on the ret not on the break of it.How do you guys play it on a ret do you...
Hey Tiger

Just wanted to welcome you to the thread and throw up a chart to this.

Technically speaking this is a pin. But is it a good pin? Your reasons of concerns are very valid and important ones.

If we just zoom out a bit(which is something I always stress), we can see the importance of this pin really goes down. A few lines shows a great deal. This pair has basically been winding up real tight. So is it possible this pin is the tip off for another break lower? Yes it might be. But it is really worth to trade such a small pin that is stuck b/w a rock and a hard place? My answer would personally be no.

Again welcome and glad to see you posting questions

Here is my chart

Mike
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  • #31,645
  • May 31, 2009 11:30am May 31, 2009 11:30am
Quoting Razorman
Hey Mike,

I thought you only trade the daily and bigger time frames. I didn't know you alos trade the 1 and 4h time frames.
Nope I have traded the 4hr/1hr for a very very long time. The majority of my trades come from the 4hr and 1hr and I take a very small number of daily/weekly trade setups a month(as the timeframe would indicate). Just one daily trade the whole month of may. I take only what the timeframes, and pairs offer.

Hope all is well razor
Mike
  • #31,646
  • May 31, 2009 12:42pm May 31, 2009 12:42pm
Hey Mike, would you consider taking this as a breakout with a break and retest at these check marks?
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  • #31,647
  • May 31, 2009 12:42pm May 31, 2009 12:42pm
You should post some of your recent 4hr stups! Would be interesting to see if any of yours match up with any of mine!
  • #31,648
  • May 31, 2009 1:03pm May 31, 2009 1:03pm
Seems with the pounds recent strength this could break resistance and climb to 1.8000 area where there is an old downtrend fib level from back in 2000 and a 50 fib retracemnt from a high in May of 08 setting up a nice area for pa to short from?
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  • #31,649
  • May 31, 2009 1:37pm May 31, 2009 1:37pm
I pulled this up on my feed to get a better look. It is a great location for a setup, however, I would not consider the bar/candle a PB because it does not have much of a nose at all. If you do take it, looks like the 0.8900 area is the first possible resistance.

Scott

Quoting bjohn34
Anybody else looking at the potential Weekly PB on EURGBP? Looks to me like it is at 50 fib, resistance area, possible swing low and should have space to run to at least 0.9000 and if it clears that to .9400-.9500. Friday daily bar was an "undecided" bar so maybe won't break long but if it doesn't, then probably no entry.

I have just changed to Prorealtime charts so hope the upload works.

Am I analyzing this correctly?
  • #31,650
  • Edited 2:51pm May 31, 2009 2:23pm | Edited 2:51pm
Quoting 4fun
Hey Mike, would you consider taking this as a breakout with a break and retest at these check marks?
Here is my go at it bud if you dont mind, I would be carefull with this pair since we are coming to huge areas of supply as well as demand showing us that we might get a bitt of wipsaw in the near days since we have just about the same amount of reasons to go long as to go short. What this means to me as a trader is that I have to be very picky with the signs the market shows me so I dont get on the wrong team (or I would probably have to do stop and reverse)

Well to begin with if you look at this pair in the monthly chart we are now coming up to major level of resistance from the low 1994 as well as the 38.2 fibb from last years high and low.

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Next if you take a good look at the weekly chart we are now coming to a very long term trendline that normally carries alot of strenght specially if its the first test. And as you can see this week we tested the trendline and the market tried to push above it and was not able to sustain its price and sold off leaving a long wick at the top showing us the precense of the sellers are in.

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But in the daily chart we just broke out but its having problems to sustain or show true control by the buyers since we made rail road tracks showing bearish control. Thats why this is one of the pairs I will be standing aside untill the market could really clear itself up or truly shows me great price action.

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When the market gets to complicated for my taste to figure out I simply move on to something else that is not .
  • #31,651
  • May 31, 2009 2:30pm May 31, 2009 2:30pm
Quoting mbqb11
Nope I have traded the 4hr/1hr for a very very long time. The majority of my trades come from the 4hr and 1hr and I take a very small number of daily/weekly trade setups a month(as the timeframe would indicate). Just one daily trade the whole month of may. I take only what the timeframes, and pairs offer.

Hope all is well razor
Mike
Hi Mike
Just a quick question if I may;

-if you ONLY ever traded daily/weekly time frames, would your entry requirements remain unchanged? Or, do you think that in the absence of the 1 hour/4 hour trades, that your fingers may become a little 'itchy'?
Thanks.
  • #31,652
  • May 31, 2009 2:36pm May 31, 2009 2:36pm
Sherm, your insight is always appreciated! I especially like the part when things get too complicated just move on.
  • #31,653
  • May 31, 2009 2:47pm May 31, 2009 2:47pm
Quoting 4fun
Hey Mike, would you consider taking this as a breakout with a break and retest at these check marks?
Yep I will certainly be watching both areas. The easier of the two to find a clean trade would be a break higher then a pullback, personally

Mike
  • #31,654
  • May 31, 2009 2:48pm May 31, 2009 2:48pm
Quoting Razorman
You should post some of your recent 4hr stups! Would be interesting to see if any of yours match up with any of mine!
Yeah I do post 4hr and rarely one hours from time to time here. I try to refrain from that as I feel it is a bit beyond the scope of the intentions of this thread.

Best
Mike
  • #31,655
  • May 31, 2009 2:49pm May 31, 2009 2:49pm
Quoting Interceptor
Hi Mike
Just a quick question if I may;

-if you ONLY ever traded daily/weekly time frames, would your entry requirements remain unchanged? Or, do you think that in the absence of the 1 hour/4 hour trades, that your fingers may become a little 'itchy'?
Thanks.
Personally no. Simply b/c it is where my comfort zone is at. If I ever trade only the 3-5 daily/weeklies a month and nothing else I would still trade it the same, but I assume at that point my account would be much larger

Best
Mike
  • #31,656
  • May 31, 2009 3:01pm May 31, 2009 3:01pm
Quoting TiaForex
I have belief in the way I trade and am confident of my edge over time. Putting pressure on myself for the next one to be a winner can only end in tears.
Great stuff!
RM
  • #31,657
  • May 31, 2009 4:21pm May 31, 2009 4:21pm
Thanks for your reply Mike, I will watch with patience as pa plays out.
  • #31,658
  • May 31, 2009 5:14pm May 31, 2009 5:14pm
Dont believe it was mentioned in this thread but U/J had a nice 2day pinbar to end last week, its bar-b que time and some cold ones here will check in later hope everyone has a great June ciao.
  • #31,659
  • May 31, 2009 5:49pm May 31, 2009 5:49pm
Quoting triger88990
Here is my first analysis on the GBP/CHF weekly chart.
I spot an PB with a good confluence that suport it:
- it's on an area of PPZ
- we have a round number 1.7500
- we have confluence with 61.8 fib number
- if we look at the bigger picture we see that it in a down trend
So I say that this is an A tread.I will manage this tread on the weekley chart because here we spot the PB,but I'm concerned about this large time frame so I think that will see some ret. and to play this PB on the ret not on the break of it.How do you guys play it on a ret...
Mike sums it up nicely (as always): http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=31645

Not waiting for a break, on less then ideal quality setup, is a big mistake.

How I would play this one is to wait for the break and see how it breaks. Meaning a tight stop and see if it breaks hard/strong, with short targets. The Daily looks promising with some bearish divergence. Other then that, Mike's summary is the best way to go.

Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #31,660
  • May 31, 2009 5:56pm May 31, 2009 5:56pm
Quoting mbqb11
I agree with this post Aaron. Just a few points of clarification. I might be super picky on daily/weekly but I trade much more on the 4hr and 1hr. It is simply where I am comfortable.I am much more comfortable waiting for 3-5 daily/weekly trades, while spending most of my trading on the h4, and h1. For those that only trade on the daily/weekly you might sitll only take 3-5 a month, or maybe 1-2, or maybe 10. It comes down to your strategy as a whole.

Thanks Aaron always enjoy your posts
Mike

Mike's super picky on the 4 Hour and Hourly too. lol
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
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