Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

Hi there....you have to read the Whole thread from the begining which contains all the info you need to learn to trade.
I along side blackeagle are pro money managers and we have a handful of live private account traders and some in demo.
We dont give signals like jacko we want YOU to learn to do it.We dont give trade recommendations AND we dont lose.
We are building a "yeild curve" and showing people how to come to there own conclusions because you have to "own your trade".
So i recommend you join our free "path to learning"...read the thread and get stuck in...but if your looking for free signals and entry prices you wont get them here.....good luck.......baba.

Welcome ladies and gentlemen and a grimweasel.!!!!

Yes its time for another star studed awards coming to you live from your work station.

On the panel tonight we have Baba(big guns) G,who it could be said moved his stop down too soon on usdcad short and got stopped out at 2nd target for 1 spread pip,what a great trader.....not(canned laughter)

Then we have the man thats more myth than man,the man that only takes trades with 1000s of pips profit...the "sunday bar king" Strat(applause)

We have had a great response to the compitition and i must say your all getting it!!!!!!! and i would like to award a bronze pick to all that responded(i shall inform Rougefx) why?....cause your all starting to see that less is more and that you trade your plan not the markets.A round of applause please ladies and gentleman,grimweasel do what you can sqweek or something for:
Cowboying
Naws
Aminas
One 14
Aston dan
(due to a technical error my P.M box has emptied pls get back in touch if i have left you off and you replyed...there was more.Very Italian T.V sorry)


Now this award which is a SILVER PICK(oooohhhhh) is NOT for trading or for the highest % winner no its for a careful list of trades, why you went in i.e buob ect how much you risked and % return you made or not as the case may be.Only by doing this for a year do you get the results to then draw your curve.
You can use excel or as i did use a book ledger(available at our online store for £9.99).
It is in this process that we see how good and consistant we are and then have the confidence to hold a trade and not get stopped out by 1 pip or something....anyway.THIS IS A MARATHON NOT A SPRINT!!

Keeping a ledger of our trades is fundamental to plot our growth and allows us to make adjustments to our mind set when entering the market place.And its great fun too!

So join us after this word from our sponsors to see who is the winner of the SILVER PICK (ooohhh)

(advert music.......into

Been at your charts all day.....cant see the price for all the indicators.....19 trades a second...is this you?

you need "strats stress free trading",your flexable friend......accepted in all markets all over the world,with a dedicated team of back up support 24/7,we can give you the confidence to face the most nasty of consolidation markets since 1929........

"strats strees free".....dont go to market without it!. (advert music out)

Welcome back winning pickers,
90% fail in ths game so lets throw ourselves with reckless abandon into our ledgers and build a rainbow across the streets and house untill we are flying hi..........

So without further ado the winner is..............(open gold envelope)
Ladies and gentleman(sqweek sqweek) the winner is
The car...the man....the dan of astons yes its ASTON DAN!!!!(yyyeeeaaahhhh)
oh whats this Strats not happy as "he left his plan on usdcad"...Strats walking off...oh gosh its all kickig off here.....Dans so sorry...but Strat dont care....security has been called just in case it gets violent......Babas pleading with Strat"but its about the ledger the ledger not his plan"........ok he says
phew....that could have got ugly.

An empty blueprint of the winners ledger will be availible for view on the "path to learning"(members only) it has everything......

So thanks for joining us this evening and lets make ledgers!!!!!!....but for now its all about Astondan...and his silver pick(ooohhh)

This has been a "strats stress free production"....dont go to market without it!!!!!!!

Thanks G...for those of you who don't know. I took a B-E-A-utiful bearish engulfing bar on USDCAD last week at 1.1600. My PLAN was to see 1.1 flat. All was going well until Wednesday night when i saw a hammer forming (note - NOT FORMED), panicked, and closed my trade.

Have a look where USDCAD closed last night

Trade your plan people.

Congrats Dan

Thanks Paul.

For anyone who hasn't yet, spending some time in Excel is very good for your trading health. It's been said over and over again on here and i don't want to waffle on about it, but starting a trading journal is probably one of the best things you can do, especially if you are new to trading.

My Excel template will be available to anyone who wants it who is on the Path, hopefully over this weekend.

It's not your holy grail, but may help you approach your trading in a more measured, considered, careful and hopefully profitable manner.

And to illustrate Baba's mantra of %, the past two weeks have probably been far and away my best so far, and yet i have NO IDEA how many pips i made nor do i care- it doesn't matter and is completely meaningless.

Flexible position sizing, carefully managed risk and compound growth is what i'm after, and i'm getting there. If you're new to this thread, or to PASR in general, stick with it - you'll get it if you put in the effort required and listen to the experienced guys and gals on here.

Thanks again Baba G and Strat.

Great post Dan - a true inspiration to those on the path; congrats mate and good trading.
Look forward to the excel doc as I must confess to doing all mine in pencil still - excel scares me!!

[quote=AstonDan;2766886]

Thanks Paul.

For anyone who hasn't yet, spending some time in Excel is very good for your trading health. It's been said over and over again on here and i don't want to waffle on about it, but starting a trading journal is probably one of the best things you can do, especially if you are new to trading.

My Excel template will be available to anyone who wants it who is on the Path, hopefully over this weekend.

It's not your holy grail, but may help you approach your trading in a more measured, considered, careful and hopefully profitable manner.

And to illustrate Baba's mantra of %, the past two weeks have probably been far and away my best so far, and yet i have NO IDEA how many pips i made nor do i care- it doesn't matter and is completely meaningless.

Flexible position sizing, carefully managed risk and compound growth is what i'm after, and i'm getting there. If you're new to this thread, or to PASR in general, stick with it - you'll get it if you put in the effort required and listen to the experienced guys and gals on here.

Thanks again Baba G and Strat.

AND BLACKEAGLE

Congratulations Dan. I would also like to say that apart from your developing skills at trading that have been the subject of this award, your helpful posts are always a positive and informative marker for people like myself who are right at the beginning of the path.

So thanks for those also!!

Your award is well deserved.

Is it NFP week again already? How time flies ..
All the factors and trends I mentioned 3 weeks ago seem to have continued. Strong commodities and commodity currencies and a weakening US dollar. Indices have gone sideways with no retracement after the sharp rally of the past few months.
Here is my funnymental outlook on the currencies / pairs and news to watch for in the week ahead.

USD
The US dollar has weakened considerably in the last two weeks, interestingly on a couple of days when the indices had down days too ... normally when the dollar would rally. The factors driving the decline in the dollar now seem to be about inflationary fear because of the amount of money the US has printed and the longer term US debt load reflected in treasury bond yields. The dollar has weakened against almost every currency. This may mean that a future big fall off in the equities indices may not necessarily mean a rush back to the safety of the US dollar and equities and the USD could have a big fall together. Mr Geithner is visiting China this week, no doubt to persuade them to keep buying govvies.
The dollars status as a worldwide reserve currency should protect it (the IMF says no reserve currency has ever had a currency crisis) but that does not mean it could not happen. As we start the week the US dollar is looking very weak indeed and although the indices may be shaking off bad news the currency is not.
Lots of USD news this week, the most important of which is NFP on Friday.

GBP
Sterling has surprised a lot of people with its strength in the last week. I happen to know a lot of BIG money was caught offside the middle of last week all short cable when it decided to carry on up. (They must not have heard of Dr Joe) There does not seem to be much stopping cable getting to the 38.2 fib and 1.65 level now. GBPJPY has put in a doji Friday and maybe signalling a change of direction and a rally for the yen. GBPCHF has been constrained by a stronger CHF although she looked all set to get higher. Sterling has gained considerable ground against the Euro.
GBP news this week includes manufacturing PMI on Monday but the very important rate statement and official bank rate on Thursday. The BoE should give guidance on further quantative easing and the road to recovery for the UK and this will have a major effect on sterling.

Euro
The Euro has been a major beneficiary of the weaker USD and the restrained policies of Mr Trichet seem to have benefitted the Euro.
As with cable, a lot of big money seems to think that Euro is inline for a pullback after such a sharp ascent.
The ECB announces its minimum bid rate Thursday, followed by the ECB press conference. So far they have held off big rate cuts and quantitive easing but the ECB still has the ability to surprise and many will be listening closely to the comments regarding recovery for the eurozone.

JPY
The Yen seems to be the other currency, along with EUR, taking the biggest advantage of the USD weakness. The carry trade has all but died and the yen looks set to gain in strength. There is no major news for the yen in the week ahead.

CHF
The SNB said they would intervene to weaken the CHF, especially against the EUR and don't seem to have spent any money doing it. The CHF has strengthened against the EUR & USD.
No major CHF news in the week ahead.

AUD
When the credit crisis hit the Aussie was the hardest hit. Pull up a chart of the Dow or SnP and Aussie and compare them. As risk aversion has declined along with a rise in the indices the Aussie has rallied. As money goes into the commodities it rallies the commodity currencies. Until fear and risk aversion return, or the indices tank the Aussie looks like a one-way ticket north.
There is a lot of news this week for AUD that may cause it to wobble or weaken, including retail sales news Monday (Sunday night), Building approvals Tuesday (Mon night), and most importantly GDP on Wednesday (Tues night). The Markets will be listening to the RBA statement with regard to rates and it could cause some volatility.

NZD
The weakest of all the commodity currencies the NZD benefitted least from the USD fall but got a big lift the end of this week when its rating was lifted from negative to stable. There is a holiday in NZ on Monday and no major news this week.
(As an aside, I am long NZDUSD ... I see a massive inverted head and shoulders on the daily)

CAD
USDCAD is a one way ticket south it seems but as Strat has shown it is never a straight line. Of all the major economies Canada has outperformed, no bank bailouts and housing has not crashed. If there is reflation and global growth Canada is first in line to benefit but is also very vulnerable to US weakness.
So far the BOC has resisted quantitative easing but this Thursday is the BOC statement and if they again reject it then it will be very positive for the CAD. Friday is Canadian unemployment. Last month the Canadian economy ADDED jobs!

Commodities
The weak US dollar and possible use as an inflation hedge are rocket fuel for commodities. Gold, Silver and Crude oil are all only headed north.
Only a return of some dollar strength, a big fall in the equities and/or the realisation that the people calling green shoots are probably smoking ganga weed look likely to stop this bullish trend!!

Have a great week
Nicola

Did everyone see the re- test of support on EURCAD and take the break?

Hi
I'm not bothered about thunder or recognition - i'm botherd about learning, when i posted i caught the end of a page so i thought it was missed and just wanted you to know i had posted a view on this, unfortunately we closed at the lower end of the range and failed to provide the bounce i had seen earlier. my view was mearly a counter view to a previous post just to see if i could spark an opinion and learn something new.

anyway needed to wait for the month to close out to get the real picture - and here we are.

happy trading all

Strat,

I did not take this trade as this pair is not available on my feed..... But i am now realizing that this would have been a possible entry on USD/CAD as it is close to the same signal on my feed as your EUR/CAD setup.

I was in USD/CAD short from 1.1600 on probably the exact setup as AstonDan as it sounds but got scared out of it from the doji i recieved on my sunday bar on the 24th as the same thing had happened on the sunday bar of the 10th.

I think the answer would be NO

well it was for me anyway, i watched the break of the TL and then was waiting on the sidelines, my TL is in the same location as yours, but i often find that they can be out a little (false breakouts)so i waited, we was then presented with a nice IB but i was unfortunately not available to manage the trade so didn't place an order, i will now be looking for it to stairstep it's way down - this week may provide us with another test as the news rolls out.

Hi guys,

I have a slight issue with this chart; it's the FTSE 100 Fut Chart.
As you can see we have entered a period of consolidation and when you flick to a line chart you can clearly see the triangle formation. I'm told these usually occur in trends and the BO is often in the direction of the trend that preceded the pattern.

The downside risk is the 'island' pattern that we have at the top of a move. See how the price gapped up and has now given us the island pattern. The S Star from 7 May is still in play really but I was also told that Stars are slightly different to hammers in that if they don't 'break' pretty much straight away then their relevance is diminished. This star has been hanging around for a few days now.

2 weeks ago now we had an inverted hammer after a slight down move - usually a bullish signal. This week though we have a lower high. Look at the big boss - you can see the gapped price. The daily MAs are heading north and so is the boss 20. The boss 50 is just up ahead so I guess you could say that we are in the boss 20/50 trap.

So, this could go either way. After all this we need to let PA show us the way. Agressive traders could put a sell order under the 50% fib to confirm a downside BO at 4240, below the 20 ema too.

Upside you could put an order above the SR and 50 sma at around 4620 but this is risky as you could get whipsawed.

So, all in all I think we will have a good BO from this pattern. We just need a good 1-2-3 or candle pattern to show us which way!!

Sounds like the same problem as AstonDan then - did you have a PLAN? If so, didn't you trust it/believe it? If no PLAN why not? Why trade without a PLAN?

The break of the low of the green bar 3 bars back at 1.1097 was a place to add on to positions or enter a new position.

Price is nearing support at 1.0880, let's call it psycho 1.09, so we need to watch PA here for future direction.

You told me you were only trading Hammers and Shooting Stars and then only up to the first level of S&R to build up confidence and consistency!

So what's all this rubbish then?

Plus the bottom TL to form the flag/pennant is drawn incorrectly.

Discipline and focus, Danny boy, discipline and focus!

In an earlier post, I showed the current inverse relationship between EURUSD and USDCAD and, as a check, never to be trading both in the same direction.

In working with Roy (30XTCi), our Welshman in Oz, on technical trading outside "accepted" trading boundaries, he again brought up the almost perfect inverse relationship between the two of them on H1, see attached charts.

The H1 has a correlation of -95.3% but the Daily drops down to -74.2%

Hi all, hope your weekend is going well.

Update to the EJ chart that I posted this past week. We've broken the downtrend line and made a higher high out of the pennant that was forming. Thursday closed above 135.00 which I have as a key BOSS level. Friday bounced off the broken downtrend line and closed just a shade under the 135.00. I don't view this as relevant right now. Price still above 20 and 50 which are both pointing up.

BIG BOSS closed may as an inside bar with bullish implications. Won't take much to make a monthly higher high now, but we'll see. BOSS made a candle higher high and a swing HH as well. As there haven't been any hammers I have not entered live or demo, just analyzing the day by day move to understand PASR better.

Next targets to the upside are the highs from early april around 137.40 and 138.00 BOSS s/r level and the BOSS 50 is sticking its nose into that area too

Hi Strat,
First of all thanks for your help..
Last week i just pull the trigger in EURCAD..
I look for charts and i readed.... in Weekly TF... I just see bearish swing... with 20ema confirming the direction... after bull harami with is high in new resistence we had bearish engulfing pattern confirming the bears mode... I look for daily TF(last weekend) i see that last daily bar was bearish engulfing pattern with last day high in one resistence zone....
Flyforex

Don't put too much emphasis on the TL forming the top part of the wedge, the resistance at 136.80 is more important. This is also the KEY level for the BOSS and BIG BOSS so a KEY level all around.

Good analysis and conclusions