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  • #3,441
  • May 29, 2009 8:22am May 29, 2009 8:22am
Quoting strat
I don’t do AUDCAD – don’t like 2 commodity currencies fighting each other – AUDJPY is as far as I go exotic wise.

Seems to me like you’re thinking short.

I think you might be letting the BIG BOSS fool you

Look at the BOSS – in a bull flag pattern being supported by the 20 & 50. It’s in an uptrend within the longer downtrend still making HH and HLs.

Yes the Worker has lost the support of the 20 but it’s still making HH and HLs

[font=Arial]Now, with...
Hi Strat,

Thanks Strat, I posted charts just for practicing analysis purpose only and to see what your view on them so others can also benifit from it.
  • #3,442
  • May 29, 2009 9:19am May 29, 2009 9:19am
Quoting Stuart14
Strat, sorry for the delayed reply. You mentioned Elliot Waves on EUR:USD the other day. I can see a clear 3 wave down move, and then 4 waves in an upmove. EW's would suggest the up move will consist of 5 waves, which would suggest one more push higher.

Would you agree?
No, Stuart, I never agree on anything to do with EW as it is way too subjective. Like I said before, the two so called "gurus" on EW, Bob Prechter and A.J. Frost, couldn't agree on a wave count so what chance have I?

However, they did agree to get together and form several companies to sell advisories, books, software, tuition, training AND advanced one on one private classes..............those that do, do, and those that can't sell, wait a minute, teach!

I only remarked on the EW on EURUSD because it was so obvious, NOT to use in our trading. It is still a wave but within a larger wave which is in another larger wave which is in......... Nobody can yet agree on, or show me, when an EW starts and when it stops to start the count again - therein lies the real problem.

Also, Roy, our Welsh Ozzie, (30XTCi) who is another experienced "trader outside of normal trading boundaries", puts it far more eloquently:

""Elliot waves are a waste of time. If the markets are always right, how come they have to correct themselves all the time?""

Enough of EW, it's hurting my head again!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,443
  • May 29, 2009 9:28am May 29, 2009 9:28am
i got to 2nd target...moved my stop down(take no prisoners) and lost my3rd part by 1 pip...now shes keeping on down......

Thats what i call out by a technical....basicaly the spread got me...thats life,its happened before it will happen again.But a win is a win and now we are at seriously good levels

Im gonna do the yeild curve thing over the weekend...been dogin this trade all week....gonna down tools for now laters.....g
  • #3,444
  • May 29, 2009 9:30am May 29, 2009 9:30am
Quoting MPP
Hey -i posted on this on 15th may, i've been sitting on the sides waiting for it to finish the month, price is playing between 1.77 and 1.80, last weeks bar is still holding, but i've been watching the Big Boss for a close above 1.80 - still waiting and the month is closing in on us.
Huh? Danny posted on May 28 and I said he hasn't had a reply to date.

Still in hibernation on my charts and I have more important things to do than watch grass grow.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,445
  • May 29, 2009 9:32am May 29, 2009 9:32am
Quoting patrick25
Hi Strat,

Thanks Strat, I posted charts just for practicing analysis purpose only and to see what your view on them so others can also benifit from it.
Good lad, keep posting
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,446
  • May 29, 2009 9:34am May 29, 2009 9:34am
Quoting MPP
Hey -i posted on this on 15th may, i've been sitting on the sides waiting for it to finish the month, price is playing between 1.77 and 1.80, last weeks bar is still holding, but i've been watching the Big Boss for a close above 1.80 - still waiting and the month is closing in on us.

Hi MPP,
Not trying to steal your thunder at all! You were the one that alerted me to that pair in the first place so cheers for that old chap. I'm just offering my 2pennies worth near the months end.
Let's see what June brings us!
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #3,447
  • May 29, 2009 9:44am May 29, 2009 9:44am
Quoting strat
Crudecraig – did you ever explain your moniker? I’ve been called crude many times, very crude thousands of times!

Let’s look at what you said:

BIG BOSS: OK, definitely down as she is putting in a confirmed swing top

[font=Arial]BOSS: While the immediate momentum is up, it is within a down trend although it is forming a double bottom on a Gann support line at 94.60ish just above the 50% retrace. However, the BIG PICTURE of the BOSS tells us that we are still in the retrace of the longer...

The handle is actually a little of both, one being that i have always been facinated with trading crude ever since i started trading back when it was making its run up to $147 mainly because of its volatility for trading M30!! I still like it though from a daily TF, i also work in the oil industry and have been called a little crude from time to time so i figured it fit.

As for the analysis, when i was refering to the trend i was meaning the immediate trend i agree that the big picture is down.

Thanks for the correction about the 20. looking back on what i wrote doesn't make a whole lot of sense after your reply about history! Not sure what i was thinking but it sounded good at the time lol...
  • #3,448
  • May 29, 2009 10:19am May 29, 2009 10:19am
Quoting strat
I don’t do AUDCAD – don’t like 2 commodity currencies fighting each other – AUDJPY is as far as I go exotic wise.

Seems to me like you’re thinking short....
Hi Strat

If you don't mind me asking, what are your favourite currency pairs?
  • #3,449
  • Edited 10:42am May 29, 2009 10:32am | Edited 10:42am
USDJPY has been kind to me this week! Thank you, Tokyo!

In our call on Monday, May 25, I told Nicola that I should have bought USDJPY for a quick ATM trade. The only reason I didn't was because of the low volume and volatility. At Monday's close it still looked good although I didn't like that doji which I put down to low volume. With my Sunday bar sat on support and this doji closing back on support (re-test) having gone looking for buyers (who were probably still sailing their yachts back to harbour), I bought at support for an ATM trade AGAINST the trend.

Since I don't use targets, my PLAN was to get out and go short at REVERSE PA. I noticed the previous leg down retraced above the TL drawn from April 6 to 13 so I thought if history repeats itself, it MAY do the same on the next retrace and since this is a COUNTER TREND move, why not?

Knowing that my PLAN will look after me, I thought why not give this target a try because if it works, I will be out at a higher price and if it doesn't work, my PLAN gets me out and short at REVERSE PA. I drew the TL from May 4 to 8 and extended it down.

At the close on May 27, I moved my SL to 7 pips above the high of the previous bar (May 26). I was a little concerned with the May 27 bar closing at resistance of 96.17 with 96.47 just 30 pips above it but it closed very strong (bullish) and MORE IMPORTANT, a PLAN is a PLAN (Dan, are you listening and watching and taking note - AGAIN!).

I then moved my cursor over to the next day (May 28), which showed it hitting the TL at 97.22 so I set my target at 97.13.

Well, May 28 produced a Bond Shooting Star 2 pips above my TL (97.24) so I was out at 97.13! Pure unadulterated luck - nothing else! Thank you, Tokyo.

Last night I went short below the bond Shooting Star AND below the 96.17 support at 96.03. No target this time since my ATM trade is over and I am trading WITH the trend this time. My PLAN is to watch PA at the critical support level of 94.60 and make a decision there.

As they say on the box, don't try this at home! Don't forget, I'm also using Momentum and my "broken" cycles to assist me with PASR in my trades.

Also, don't try and work out the S&R as they are Gann Square of 9 lines - something I am checking out.

You have Nicola to blame for this as she brought up Gann in our call and I remembered I had a lot of unfinished Gann work. Thanks for all the extra work, Nicola!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: lucky usdjpy.gif Size: 27 KB
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,450
  • May 29, 2009 10:46am May 29, 2009 10:46am
Quoting pmn100
Hi Strat

If you don't mind me asking, what are your favourite currency pairs?
Oh am I glad you said "currency" - you could have got me into a lot of trouble!

No favourites at all - I would rather answer the reverse of the question and say that I don't like the pairs with low liquidity and volume (exotics) and any pair that is directionless (going sideways).
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,451
  • May 29, 2009 11:10am May 29, 2009 11:10am
Quoting Baba G
i got to 2nd target...moved my stop down(take no prisoners) and lost my3rd part by 1 pip...now shes keeping on down......

Thats what i call out by a technical....basicaly the spread got me...thats life,its happened before it will happen again.But a win is a win and now we are at seriously good levels

Im gonna do the yeild curve thing over the weekend...been dogin this trade all week....gonna down tools for now laters.....g
Velly intellesting - ROR! as Confucius say! Not to mention "Man who plays with PASR get pipped in his wallet"

I went short again on the break of the low of May 27 at 1.1083

Need to be on board this train if she is calling in at the "Parity" station.

Pulling soon into the next station, 1.0880
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,452
  • May 29, 2009 11:13am May 29, 2009 11:13am
ahhh i must say i am very jealous of the shooting star you recieved on your USD/JPY chart Strat!
  • #3,453
  • May 29, 2009 11:18am May 29, 2009 11:18am
Quoting strat
USDJPY has been kind to me this week! Thank you, Tokyo!

In our call on Monday, May 25, I told Nicola that I should have bought USDJPY for a quick ATM trade. The only reason I didn't was because of the low volume and volatility. At Monday's close it still looked good although I didn't like that doji which I put down to low volume. With my Sunday bar sat on support and this doji closing back on support (re-test) having gone looking for buyers (who were probably still sailing their yachts back to harbour), I bought at support for an ATM trade AGAINST...
And here's my feed for USD/JPY

No SS, and check out the highs where you took the trendline from, it would be pointing upwards. Just goes to show you can trade what your chart tells you without worrying what other feeds are doing. Looks like price has come of the 50% fib of most recent swing, and a S/R line I've got in there.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: charts.PNG Size: 22 KB
  • #3,454
  • May 29, 2009 11:26am May 29, 2009 11:26am
Quoting CrudeCraig
ahhh i must say i am very jealous of the shooting star you recieved on your USD/JPY chart Strat!
Don't wind yourself up. There are many times when you guys get brilliant PA when all I have is FA!

It really does average itself out in the long run - but it is something I have on my "to do" list.

Hang in there, oily one! Have you talked to Nicola yet?- she likes that slippery, smelly stuff too.

Having worked for ARAMCO and other companies in the Middle East on and off since 1977 AND donating it a large slice of my trading account, the last thing I need is to trade the stuff again!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,455
  • May 29, 2009 11:28am May 29, 2009 11:28am
Quoting strat
No, Stuart, I never agree on anything to do with EW as it is way too subjective. Like I said before, the two so called "gurus" on EW, Bob Prechter and A.J. Frost, couldn't agree on a wave count so what chance have I?

However, they did agree to get together and form several companies to sell advisories, books, software, tuition, training AND advanced one on one private classes..............those that do, do, and those that can't sell, wait a minute, teach!

I only remarked on the EW on EURUSD because it was so obvious, NOT to use in our trading....
Just to confirm, you pointed us in the direction of Elliot Waves on the pair, but don't believe in them?!!!

Not sure if Nicola is around today, but I sent her a PM last week on EUR:SKD. The pair bounced perfectly off the descending resistence of the triangle today. Not trading it, but there is a huge pattern forming there.
  • #3,456
  • May 29, 2009 11:48am May 29, 2009 11:48am
Quoting Stuart14
Just to confirm, you pointed us in the direction of Elliot Waves on the pair, but don't believe in them?!!!

Not sure if Nicola is around today, but I sent her a PM last week on EUR:SKD. The pair bounced perfectly off the descending resistence of the triangle today. Not trading it, but there is a huge pattern forming there.
I wasn't going to take the bait but since I'm nicely "pipped", I will take it.

WHERE have I "POINTED" you in the direction of EW?

If you take the trouble to READ and UNDERSTAND the previous posts you will see it all started when rgrace asked if the little pattern on EURUSD was my "wobble". I said there was a more obvious pattern. Since no-one saw it, I drew it out. Then I got questions which I answered.

In ALL my posts on EW, I have always said I can't use it, on some I think I said it was crap, but in all of them, I said, WE don't use them in our trading.

Don't bother replying, Stuart, as it is obvious from all your other posts that you like to make trouble and see "black" as "white". Thank you for your time on my thread, and good luck!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,457
  • May 29, 2009 12:36pm May 29, 2009 12:36pm
Quoting pmn100
And here's my feed for USD/JPY

No SS, and check out the highs where you took the trendline from, it would be pointing upwards. Just goes to show you can trade what your chart tells you without worrying what other feeds are doing. Looks like price has come of the 50% fib of most recent swing, and a S/R line I've got in there.

Attachment
Thanks, Paul. Let's take this opportunity to reinforce again that you must ONLY trade what YOU see on YOUR charts. For trading purposes, ignore what another person shows on his chart BUT use it for learning and improving on.

It also serves to show that you must always post YOUR chart with YOUR analysis so that WE can SEE what YOU see.

When we see such obvious differences in data for the same time frame for the same pair it really drives me round the bend when I see other threads with posts on asking "where is your entry?", "where will you exit", "what is your stop loss?", "what do you think of .......", "where will ** go", "what is the trend on **", etc., etc.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,458
  • May 29, 2009 2:19pm May 29, 2009 2:19pm
Sorry I have been quiet, I have not been too well and trying to keep up with my trading.
I'm feeling much better and will catch up and post stuff and reply to PM's
Nicola

PS Yes, Im studying Gann .. because my life is not hard enough
  • #3,459
  • May 29, 2009 9:04pm May 29, 2009 9:04pm
For those that don’t know and those that don’t know that they don’t know, and even those that don’t care, here are some facts, as at May 26, 2009, on currency futures contracts:

EUR:
6,726,025 Open Interest (total # of contracts not closed by a transaction)
1,453,254 Large Speculators ($multi-million traders, hedge funds, large trading institutions)
8,977,687 Commercials (Large Institutions, Funds, Banks, buying and holding funds for clients in EUR)

GBP:
93,484 Open Interest
60,253 Large Speculators
84,502 Commercials

CAD:
89,446 Open Interest
53,326 Large Speculators
75,339 Commercials

JPY:
39,627 Open Interest
61,711 Large Speculators
87,427 Commercials

From today’s COT Report
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,460
  • May 30, 2009 2:10am May 30, 2009 2:10am
I'm new to this thred and I found Strat only comment things that already happened.He don't show many chart of the rules(I'm not sure if he has)neither forcast the market.Are there anyone including Strat tell me?
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