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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #31,521
  • May 29, 2009 9:34am May 29, 2009 9:34am
I've been stopped out on the hourly Gbp Usd pin and the Eur Usd pin. I think I need to be more picky about which pins I take!
  • #31,522
  • May 29, 2009 9:41am May 29, 2009 9:41am
Here is the range I was talking about and thats why I backed off the 1 hour chart trading once I did not get triggered....

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  • #31,523
  • May 29, 2009 9:43am May 29, 2009 9:43am
Quoting bfd
I've been stopped out on the hourly Gbp Usd pin and the Eur Usd pin. I think I need to be more picky about which pins I take!
What pin on the gbpusd?...and the eurusd pin has a good shape the one about 3 hours ago .. but the flaw on the eurusd pin is the size of the pin being so small compare to the huge wave of buyers, its like going to war with arrows when going up against opponents with guns so yes you will win some battles but on the long path odds are you will loose the war. If you are trying to reverse a strong wave in the market you need to attack it with a very strong price action or location must be extremly amazing mate.
  • #31,524
  • May 29, 2009 9:49am May 29, 2009 9:49am
Quoting Shermenator
What pin on the gbpusd?....
Sorry I meant daily pin on gbp usd on the 27th
  • #31,525
  • May 29, 2009 9:58am May 29, 2009 9:58am
Quoting bfd
Sorry I meant daily pin on gbp usd on the 27th

Well you see if you look at the price action to your trade the day prior to your short the market showed a huge amount of buying by leaving long wicks below and then the day fallowing got the bearish pin bar. What this tells me as a trader is that the market is experience the same amount of buying as selling showing me parity as well as informing me that the market can experience a rangy condition, and thats why you then got another reversal day in the market . That is the main reason I have step aside of the gbpusd for the past 2 days waiting for the market to brake out and make up its mind. Never try and solve things in the forex let the big players fight each other and pick a side and then just fallow the market since then you will get clean waves in the market most likely.

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  • #31,526
  • May 29, 2009 9:59am May 29, 2009 9:59am
so , did anyone took the GBP/CHf short ?

Hope you took it short guys

see you next week

look to the chf/jpy and tell me your opinion
The million dollar man Alkhatarey
  • #31,527
  • May 29, 2009 10:19am May 29, 2009 10:19am
Quoting Shermenator
Never try and solve things in the forex let the big players fight each other and pick a side and then just fallow the market since then you will get clean waves in the market most likely.

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Exactly. Leave your brains at the door. LOL. Seriously. There's not much to trading that a dog or monkey can't be trained to do. We let our egos get in the way and think that we have to outsmart what seems to be a complex market (something I still catch myself doing from time to time) when it's obvious from following this thread, Jacko or any other successful group that SIMPLE works the best. Once you have your edge, which in our case is letting the big boys fight it out and leave behind price action in the right spots, then all we need to do is be consistent. Clear cut setups, clear cut rules. Wait, wait some more, enter, manage, exit. Rinse, repeat.
  • #31,528
  • May 29, 2009 10:35am May 29, 2009 10:35am
I missed it. great trade if you took. Fib 61.8+Resistence confluence.
If you're conservative the PA would be that IB.

I wonder if Mark caught it.

Quoting alkhatarey
so , did anyone took the GBP/CHf short ?

Hope you took it short guys

see you next week

look to the chf/jpy and tell me your opinion
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What does not kill me makes me stronger. Friedrich Nietzsche,
  • #31,529
  • May 29, 2009 10:43am May 29, 2009 10:43am
Quoting mbqb11
very rarely will I ever. Usually if the bar doesn't do it for me I will pass. Sometimes I will trade it depending on the situation and just be much more conservative with my exits etc. This was close to being a trade, but just not quite for "my rules".

Best
Mike
I know that this is "old news" but I wanted to follow up on the possible trade opportunity on GBPUSD from a couple of days back & post a chart. First let me say that I couldn't agree more with Mike that this was an "iffy" pin bar. Now that the trade has played out, I wanted to note a few observations.

1. I have been here before.-------Do I take this trade or not? I have taken this type of bar as a trade and made a profit more times than not. The thing that I didn't like about being in this sort of trade is that by the time it breaks where I am comfortable getting in (in this case below 1.5900) there is little high probability profit to be made. Here is why: I have observed that with these counter trend stubby nosed pins, that most of the time, these bars do not break with a great deal of momentum. I do not yet understand why. I have my suspicions though. Therefore, I'll keep a really snug stop on my position soon after it breaks to keep the trade from reaching a loss. One other thing I'd like to point out in relation to this pin. Look at the move up to 1.5900 from 1.5300 in a short and furious bull run. Those are some impressive ranges that those candle are sporting. Why would I want to put my faith in a little runt of a pin to stop that herd? I'm not certain how often we get the luxury of this clue, but we certainly did get a good sign that price was just consolidating for an additional move north. I would have made 25 pips on this trade because of the way I manage my trading. Not good R/R.

2. Counter Trend.----------I am seeing now that the FIRST thing that I will look at in the future is the length of the nose. I want a BIIIIIIGGGGGG rejection of price going with the trend in order for me to trade counter to it.

3. Be objective-----------It's easy for me to look back at this set-up now and feel good about not taking it. Now let's assume that we were sitting at 1.5400 today. It needs to be just as easy for me to look at this trade in retrospect and feel good about knowing what a HIGH probability set up looks like and only taking that trade. Fact is that this was not high probability situation and my account is in tact because I didn't take this trade.

4. Words to trade by----My signature says "great bars in great places". I strive to trade this way. I have already learned to look at the bars and where they are formed for my first clue that a trade is coming about. I just need to accept it 100% of the time now. Then look at my other factors that will allow me to pull the trigger (Divergence/Fibs/etc..).

It's a great time to learn to trade this market. I stick with daily TF's so the past couple of months have been a challenge. I know now that trading the markets is like my other business in the sense that we have times that we are too busy as well that times that are too slow. This will help me to relate to my FOREX trading as an enterprise as much as anything else that I do for a living. I hope this helps someone gain some additional perspective. Have a good weekend.

K.I.S.S.
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  • #31,530
  • May 29, 2009 10:51am May 29, 2009 10:51am
Quoting jarroo
I haven't told anyone to short the Aud/Cad. I did however, show a potential PA BEOB setup on the Weekly Aud/Cad that looked promising to short.
Hey Jim I was just being facetious. Sorry. Once again a measured and valuable analysis. Thank you.

Mike.
Gone to a better place
  • #31,531
  • May 29, 2009 10:52am May 29, 2009 10:52am
Here is a setup that is very high probabilty in my book if we get the good close.....

If you take a look at the usdjpy this pair has broken out of the wedge earlier this month and has turned into a decending triangle. Also take a look at how each time we bounce of the 93.80 area we are bouncing less as well as more sell stops are being build below 2 months ago's low. I will most likely will be looking to ride this puppy down ....

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  • #31,532
  • May 29, 2009 11:05am May 29, 2009 11:05am
Quoting Life of Pi_p
Exactly. Leave your brains at the door. LOL. Seriously. There's not much to trading that a dog or monkey can't be trained to do. We let our egos get in the way and think that we have to outsmart what seems to be a complex market (something I still catch myself doing from time to time) when it's obvious from following this thread, Jacko or any other successful group that SIMPLE works the best. Once you have your edge, which in our case is letting the big boys fight it out and leave behind price action in the right spots, then all we need to do is...

So true but most want to take something that a 5 year old can do and add ego to it and then greed with money. If you can paper trade and make money and cant do it with real money it's EMOTION.
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #31,533
  • May 29, 2009 11:16am May 29, 2009 11:16am
Quoting ikki
I missed it. great trade if you took. Fib 61.8+Resistence confluence.
If you're conservative the PA would be that IB.

I wonder if Mark caught it.
hey , i took this but as i closed half for +30pips , i set my other half to -30pips , took a nap....got stopped out, so all in all, made nothing & lost nothing as well.....
Simplicity is the key to success
  • #31,534
  • May 29, 2009 11:17am May 29, 2009 11:17am
In at 0799 out at 0700. In future I would like to trade multiple lots so I can manage trades like this with a little more finesse; I need to open a different demo account as this one only offers .1 as the smallest lot size. All in all though this one felt a little bit naughty but worked out in the end.

Still in the usdcad and again I would prefer to have multiple lots so I could take some profit and let some run. I'm not sure if I should be looking to move my stop, on the one hand my profit target looks to be in the clear, on the other I would hate to take a loss on something that is so deep in profit.

M
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  • #31,535
  • Edited 3:09pm May 29, 2009 11:23am | Edited 3:09pm
Quoting KissFan

It's a great time to learn to trade this market. I stick with daily TF's so the past couple of months have been a challenge. I know now that trading the markets is like my other business in the sense that we have times that we are too busy as well that times that are too slow. This will help me to relate to my FOREX trading as an enterprise as much as anything else that I do for a living. I hope this helps someone gain some additional perspective. Have a good weekend.

K.I.S.S.
K.I.S.S.,
This was a great explanation of the GBP/USD and a great post about what trading is. I highlighted my favorite part, which is very similar to the way I see trading - as a business. But I hadn't thought about it in terms of sometimes you are busy and others you are bored... I think Mike has alluded to the fact that it's in these bored times that we lose money. We anticipate charts, take trades we shouldn't, or jump down to lower timeframes that we haven't even tested.

NOT TAKING POOR TRADES IS AT LEAST AS IMPORTANT AS TAKING GREAT TRADES WHEN IT COMES TO YOUR ACCOUNT.

Going to be doing a bunch more exit strategy testing next week guys! Fun fun...Trying to get my expectancy to about $0.40/trade. (See TYWTFF by Van Tharp for equation). I'll post if I find anything interesting... guess a little hint can't hurt right? Well, what I found is that 68% of my demo trades never reached the 50% retracement level after I had placed the trade... So, of course, I'll be doing some testing on placing my initial stop at 50% retrace from my entry and position sizing accordingly. This is getting closer to what Jarroo and Racezfx do, using small stops on excellent setups which enhance returns.

Ok, enough rambling lol. Josh
  • #31,536
  • May 29, 2009 11:49am May 29, 2009 11:49am
Quoting albchr
Morning everyone. For those of you who PM'd me to wish me good luck going live, I told you I'd keep you posted as I go. Well, here's my first trade so far. I actually didn't expect it to get quite this far but kept with it and managed it along the way.

A 3 part trade with 1/3 profit taken at each check mark. The top check mark was to be my final TP point but after seeing this mornings climb, I've decided to stay in and watch what happens. I'm not big on holding over the weekend (too new to this still) but I might just let this one ride if it doesn't...
Nice one chris, I nailed that breakout too, with another method, those cocky feelings can be dangerous, beware of those, last time I got those it freezes me because I've used too high a leverage on a good setup, the market is not a good teacher as it don't care what your decision is, whether good or bad, it gives or takes money from you.
What's important is to stay focused and stay on the plan, I bet Jaroo's steps on J16 method is already on the wall beside your monitor lol.

Happy Weekend!
  • #31,537
  • May 29, 2009 12:01pm May 29, 2009 12:01pm
Quoting Shermenator
I will now wait for the market from higher timeframes but since its friday I will most likely call it a day due a range we might for the remainder part of the session...

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Solid PPZ, .8000, fib 50. I am watching closely.
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  • #31,538
  • May 29, 2009 12:10pm May 29, 2009 12:10pm
Quoting egkid
Everyone say eur/usd going down!! am i the only one says UP!!
It might go down not much and maybe deep down on 7 or 8 May but fasting will pullback and shooting high that my view.I think that because that what i read from my chart and analysis on long TF not because have long position!!

I think also button changed not 1.23 anymore but 1.28

Anyone sharing my view??
Alot of guys says it will go down make me close half of my position but any way i learn the lesson and nice feeling to be right and Hit ur TP2
My long TF chart below
Ps: expecting my tp3 hit in next 2 months, now guess time for short, it's 50%Fib in my chart
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  • #31,539
  • May 29, 2009 2:10pm May 29, 2009 2:10pm
Quoting Jduester
Well, what I found is that 68% of my demo trades never reached the 50% drawdown level after I had placed the trade...
Josh, did you mean that price never went (against you) more than 50% of your SL? Drawdown refers to your capital (trading a/c).

Interesting thoughts, please keep more coming Have a great weekend!
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #31,540
  • May 29, 2009 2:34pm May 29, 2009 2:34pm
Quote
...Alot of guys says it will go down make me close half of my position but....

egkid,
Yes, try to avoid this as much as u can. Doesn't matter if u are following/copying a pro/profitable trader or not... it's better u trade your own charts & your own plan/s.
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