From where I am looking, we are about to form a hanging man candle ot the H1 chart, which is near a roundy - 1.3950. It bounced off at 1.3800 , which was 38.2 fib lvl. drawn from the low from 18 march to high at 25th of march. It may need some space to accelerate in order to take down the wall at 1.3800 and continue down. Just a guess.
Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain
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Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
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Pretty quiet this thread, has everyone moved elsewhere?
I hadn't anticipated the rise above 1.3900 today - perhaps it's gone as low as it's going to for a while....it'll take a steep drop down to reach target @ 1.3750 now, without breaking the bottom of the channel anyway.
However, I did notice that a falling trendline drawn between the two major lows (of the retrace) would extend to our point of confluence, almost to the pip in fact. It may still be possible.
Whatever happens with this set-up, it's been a good lesson in patience. I'm confident that being selective will pay off in the future.
Fewer trades = picking only the best set-ups = higher success rate = pips
Pips + leverage + compounding = expanding account
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- May 28, 2009 5:03pm May 28, 2009 5:03pm
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Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
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- May 28, 2009 5:11pm May 28, 2009 5:11pm
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I'm still waiting - seems like a painfully long time since last Friday
I hadn't anticipated the rise above 1.3900 today - perhaps it's gone as low as it's going to for a while....it'll take a steep drop down to reach target @ 1.3750 now, without breaking the bottom of the channel anyway.
However, I did notice that a falling trendline drawn between the two major lows (of the retrace) would extend to our point of confluence, almost to the pip in fact....
I am still waiting to go long at 1.3750 though, then scale in up to 1.4000 for some nice profits.
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
Good stuff, I know jacko only likes the 50 fib, but ive read the 61.8 and 76.4 fib are good to look for bounces. On the mose recent swing you could have good a good entry from the 76.4. See this link (http://www.nobrainertrades.com/2008/10/market-technicians-have-been-using.html)from BRV.
I am still waiting to go long at 1.3750 though, then scale in up to 1.4000 for some nice profits.
It's interesting that you should mention the other Fibs - actually I used to give the 61.8 level more attention than all the others. I believe James16 considers it to be significant, along with the 50 of course.
I know they definitely work, but when I used all three I found I got conflicting signals, my charts became over-complicated and I often lost sight of which timeframe I was supposed to be trading. It also led to me over-trading and taking second rate set-ups which resulted in more losses. In other words, my poor little brain couldn't cope, so now I stick to one.
My take on what Jacko is trying to convey is that it's important to establish some absolutes in the otherwise confusing world of forex: one timeframe, one trend, one point to watch for retracement, a trailing stop fixed at 100pips, entry at round numbers.... It's a framework, so you always know where you are, especially in the heat of the moment. There's still room for nuance but, as with playing a musical instrument, you need solid technique to underpin it if you're going to do it well.
Actually, I do find the 61.8 useful for confirming a bounce should price travel that far. Since it's already gone through the Fib50, there's an opportunity to enter the trade in the direction of the trend when it passes this level again (same as I was saying earlier). Sure, you miss out on some pips but it telegraphs the entry without risking anything and sticks to Jacko's method.
Sorry everyone, I'm rambling way too much. Apologies.
P.S. markmm - your chart shows a bounce at 61.8, then 76.4....next stop 100? This also happens to be the Fib50 from the earlier swing low that we're all watching like hawks. Coincidence? Not sure it matters. If it reaches it, it reaches it; if it doesn't, it doesn't. We'll see. It's that simple (or I'm that simple....one or the other).
That's it, finished now
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- May 29, 2009 12:55am May 29, 2009 12:55am
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- #7,775
- May 29, 2009 2:37am May 29, 2009 2:37am
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Thanks a lot for the link
It's interesting that you should mention the other Fibs - actually I used to give the 61.8 level more attention than all the others....
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
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- Edited 5:43am May 29, 2009 4:04am | Edited 5:43am
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Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
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- May 29, 2009 7:10am May 29, 2009 7:10am
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Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
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Yup, that makes sense - seems like a good approach.
So much for 1.3750.....came within 40 pips - so close. Oh well, on to the next!
I think we should forget 1.375.
Good time to go long?
I think it is too late since PA is on the upper ranges of the channel.
Still nobody knows.
I will wait for the next setup.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain