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  • #3,421
  • May 28, 2009 9:01am May 28, 2009 9:01am
Quoting AstonDan
i know i know, sorry boss - i'll go and sit in the corner. I honestly panicked when i saw it and i took all of two seconds to go flat.

I do like to move to BE quickly, but this is more about protecting capital than greed, although last night's scramble to close was purely greed!

Oh, BTW yes, my original plan was to see it reach 1.1000...i must trade my plan...i must trade my plan...i must trade my plan...
How about 1.0000?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,422
  • Edited 9:25am May 28, 2009 9:06am | Edited 9:25am
Quoting strat
You did very well, young man!

Yes, the doji on the BOSS is a NEUTRAL BAR but look where it closed and what that fib % is. It was also rejected by the 93.75 support and formed an unconfirmed swing low.

Don't forget to consider the BIG BOSS as this tells us even more information - can you see it?

Your analysis and course of action are very sound, good job!

Thanks strat well having explianed why I closed my short the usd/jpy has done as I expected ( I think I am beginning to understand it ) and has rallied up 200 pips from the 50% fib line after the bullish daily pin on 22/05 I wish I had taken this long but the boss candle was a doji so didnt indicate which way it would go and as I have explained in previous posts I like this lower and was waiting for a retrace up to better levels before a re entry so will now wait for any price action at resistence to confrim. I used to look at too many charts before there has been enough pips available to me this month on this pair alone and I am now going to concentrate on just a few pairs and memorise levels etc until I find it easier and then will add pairs!!

So my trade went as follows:
Short on on the 11/05 on break of Ib bar which as you said was a bit lucky and went my way. Closed first part ( wont mention pips after telling off in first post ) stop to break even. Then trailed stop and got stopped out at 96.70.
Rentered after bearish bar at 38.2 fib line of down trend but mainly because of the golden cross on worker ma's and the fact I liked it lower as explained in my previous posts. Closed both parts of the short on the 22/05 after bullish pin bar on the worker at 50 fib line drawn on the up trend from jan to April.
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  • #3,423
  • May 28, 2009 9:27am May 28, 2009 9:27am
Quoting Lotuselanman
I agree a lovely looking chart with a clear trend, but when you say you don't trade the retracements, do you mean having entered you hold on through the steps of the trend trusting that it will continue upwards or do you come out at what you estimate are the SHs and then re-enter at what you take to be a SL?

Charts look pretty clear in retrospect but at the time do you ever wonder if you are getting a reversal?

I notice from your comment that you entered at 83 and have traded the up trend leg so far, so I think that must be the answer to my question,...
Christopher and Dan and others wanting to "trend trade" long trends.

Trading long trends takes YEARS of EXPERIENCE and PRACTICE - it is not something that you can just flip a switch on and say "I'm going to be a trend trader". The points you both have brought up are mere flyshit in a barrel of pepper!

This is why I don't want to explain it further than I have already and nor do I want to encourage inexperienced traders to do it. This should only be attempted when you have a PROVEN and CONSISTENT equity growth over at least 3 years!

I can tell you from experience that trying to "trend trade" while you are inexperienced will do 2 things:

(1) Blow your account
(2) End your trading career

Q.E.D!

Before attempting "trend trading", you must prove that you can trade PASR in your sleep while hanging upside down from the top of the Golden Gate Bridge! Seriously!

If you remember, I took the jpy pairs long at the same point - on my Sunday bar, on a TL, at support, at two cycle bottoms. I could have held for continuation of the trend BUT that was NOT my PLAN at that time - my PLAN was load up on jpy pairs for ATM trades only.

Why didn't I follow the trend? Right now, I am bogged down with so much experimental trading work that my focus is on that plus trying to recover 18 months of lost "cycle" work. I was not in the "right frame of mind to trend trade". There is SO MUCH MORE to this than buying at support and selling at resistance, believe me!

As previously stated, our future plans include teaching "trend trading" but that will only be to those who are in this for the long haul and have demonstrated the necessary equity growth over the long haul.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,424
  • Edited 10:09am May 28, 2009 9:56am | Edited 10:09am
Quoting haircut
Thanks strat well having explianed why I closed my short the usd/jpy has done as I expected ( I think I am beginning to understand it ) and has rallied up 200 pips from the 50% fib line after the bullish daily pin on 22/05 I wish I had taken this long but the boss candle was a doji so didnt indicate which way it would go and as I have explained in previous posts I like this lower and was waiting for a retrace up to better levels before a re entry so will now wait for any price action at resistence to confrim. I used to look at too many charts before...
Good job, Martin, you are moving nicely on The Path - lots of rough edges but nice progress.

"" Then trailed stop and got stopped out at 96.70""
You might want to look at your SL placements - according to my data, you were stopped out at the EXACT high - bummer!
Was this in your PLAN? Did you have a PLAN? Were you in an ATM trade or ?

""I used to look at too many charts before there has been enough pips available to me this month on this pair alone and I am now going to concentrate on just a few pairs and memorise levels etc until I find it easier and then will add pairs!!""

This is the subject of many debates! I can see the advantages to both sides but from my personal experience:

The more pairs you watch, study and practice on the better trader you will become. When you can do what you have done repeatedly with proven and consistent equity growth over at least 3 years, then you can specialise on one pair as does Jacko with EURUSD

BUT, you will then become so proficient, that you will want to do something with the other 7 hours and 55 minutes of your 8 hour day - so why not trade more pairs?

While specialising on a pair DOES have benefits (you become as "one" with her and can "feel" and "sense" her rhythms and moods as you dance with her), you miss out on the action with the other pairs. A bit like being married, I suppose.

Jacko has gone through many a "flat" and "dead" spot while waiting for "action" on his beloved EURUSD while we have been trading other pairs.

Specialising in one pair could also lead to "looking" for trades when she isn't giving you any. This is trading out of frustration.

My advice is practice on as many pairs as you can get your hands on and the same with your trading! Practice, practice, practice on thousands and thousands of charts, THEN, when you have done that, practice, practice, practice on thousands and thousands of charts.

Just because you have done good with these trades doesn't qualify you to walk on water! Remember what happenend to the last guy that thought he could? Don't end up like him.

One step at a time, Martin!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,425
  • May 28, 2009 11:09am May 28, 2009 11:09am
So being a beginner I wanted to understand the "relative strength / likelyhood" of different Price action events.

I was wondering if anyone could help add to this (or disagree).

I plan to use the strongest PA first and as I get further on the path use other PA.

Strong --> Weaker

* Shooting Star (in Uptrend)
* Hammer (in downtrend)
Bear Engulf (after uptrend)
Bull Engulf (after downtrend)
Dark Cloud Cover (after uptrend)
Piercing Pattern (after downtrend)
Doji's shows indecision
Spinning Tops shows indecision

* I'm only trading these at S/R with good MM (good target to risk)

What other PA do people trade? I'm not going to trade these but simply look and learn to see if I read them correctly.

A big problem I have is I look for a type of PA and then just draw S/R lines around it and convince myself there is S/R at that level. Need to really sit down and draw PPZ areas on all my charts.

Being from Manchetser I'm sad today

Ta
  • #3,426
  • May 28, 2009 11:32am May 28, 2009 11:32am
Quoting paddyham

Being from Manchetser I'm sad today

Ta
I thought people from Manchester supported City?

Anyway, your team didn't show up last night. Man U were dreadful.
  • #3,427
  • May 28, 2009 11:37am May 28, 2009 11:37am
Quoting paddyham
So being a beginner I wanted to understand the "relative strength / likelyhood" of different Price action events.

I was wondering if anyone could help add to this (or disagree).

I plan to use the strongest PA first and as I get further on the path use other PA.

Strong --> Weaker

* Shooting Star (in Uptrend)
* Hammer (in downtrend)
Bear Engulf (after uptrend)
Bull Engulf (after downtrend)
Dark Cloud Cover (after uptrend)
Piercing Pattern (after downtrend)
Doji's shows indecision
Spinning Tops shows indecision

* I'm only trading...
Paddyham,

""I plan to use the strongest PA first and as I get further on the path use other PA""

Exactly right my Mancunian friend! Those starting at the beginning should only trade the 2 main price reversal bars:

The Hammer at the end of a downtrend and,
The Shooting Star at the end of an uptrend.

Forget all else UNTIL you are a MASTER at these. Trying to learn others will only confuse you and make you into a Jack of all trades and master of NONE. Don't even bother looking at them - INSTEAD, use your time to go over thousands and thousands of charts paper trading (using f12) hammers and shooting stars - do this until you can do it on auto pilot in your sleep and..........

When you get to this point, and only then, we will move you onto other PA.

So, stop trying to get ahead of yourself and focus, focus on the hammers and shooting stars.

Don't worry about what other people trade - it has NOTHING to do with YOU. What YOU trade and how YOU do it is all that matters.

""A big problem I have is I look for a type of PA and then just draw S/R lines around it and convince myself there is S/R at that level""

Are you sure you are READING and UNDERSTANDING? Seems to me like you need to go back to the beginning of The Path of Learning (without passing "GO" and without collecting GBP200!).

You are doing this upside down and inside out! We draw our S&R FIRST, then we look for PRICE ACTION at our already drawn and waiting S&R.

S&R is like a grid on our charts, attracting and repelling price as she enters - rather like a pin ball machine (Pin Ball Wizard - The Who 1969)

As a supporter of all EPL teams in Europe I, too was very disappointed with MUFC. They only have themselves to blame - seems like they believed their own hype and not as good as they think they are. FC Barcelona were far the better team and ran rings around them. Had they had a good tactical coach like Huddink, it would have been different.

Anyway, back to trading - get your act together and get ship shape matey!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,428
  • May 28, 2009 12:08pm May 28, 2009 12:08pm
Quoting strat
Paddyham,

Forget all else UNTIL you are a MASTER at these.
Thanks Strat.

Ok sticking this to my head:
"Stars and hammers ONLY, with the Trend at PRE-DEFINED S/R levels "

I've still got those itching fingers haven't I ! Don't worry they are slowly going.

I've off to the pub now to drink away the night, booohooo
  • #3,429
  • May 28, 2009 3:41pm May 28, 2009 3:41pm
euraud looks interesting.

1. Big boss showing downward momentum but up trend line still intact.
2. Boss has some interesting PA around the 61% Fib swing low to high from the big boss. Hammer week before but not really hanging into free space and trapped under the monthly 20ema, but far from weekly 20ema.
3. Worker - PA trapped under 20ema and SR at 1.8000. Hammer on 7 May is still intact but it looks as if the bears are weak. The sells have not managed to put in lower lows. Today and yest are showing dojis holding above the 61% Fib level.

I'm waiting for PA in the 1.8300 area above the 50% Fib to show that the trend is still up. This would put us above the monthly 20ema and show the trend may continue. All bets are off should the ascending TL from the monthly and weekly be broken. Has a similar pattern to usdcad and being a commodity currency with a potential to yield 4% by 2010 Q4, if stocks continue to gain then it could ruin the chances of this train heading north again?
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Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #3,430
  • May 28, 2009 5:04pm May 28, 2009 5:04pm
I didnt take cd yen buob cause of the weekly beob it was against and if i did i would of been at even or maybe a little partial profit.....but its something to think about......

A win is a win BUT we dont want bad habits to creep in unless of course your ok with trading into a weekly beob.

Its that old butt ring indi....

just something to keep in mind........x
  • #3,431
  • May 28, 2009 5:37pm May 28, 2009 5:37pm
I see something very interesting here on the GBP/CHF. We are at or around the 17,500 level. We can see it has acted as Support before. When it broke back in Dec price collapsed down a very long way. 17,500 has acted as Resistance recently with a strong move away in Feb.

On the Weekly chart we can see that the last time price crossed the 20 it was pushed down. We have crossed the 20 now and it is turning up as it did before. However we have spent a longer time inside the MA's on the Weekly.

I think 17,500 is clearly very important to this pair.

As this is my first post with charts and I am not sure of the rules I dont want to ramble on too much....

http://i42.tinypic.com/iwsz6o.gif
http://i40.tinypic.com/99nhci.gif
  • #3,432
  • May 28, 2009 6:24pm May 28, 2009 6:24pm
Hi All,

AUDCAD

Big Boss looks like will send out a bond @ 61.8% for this month.

Big aldready sent a bond last week @ major S&R 8850.

Daily is currently in an uptrend but a break down from 8600 level will align with Big Boss and Boss.
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  • #3,433
  • May 28, 2009 11:52pm May 28, 2009 11:52pm
USD/JPY Analysis

Monthly trend is still down, price is below the 20 and continuing down from the hanging man formed on the march candle which is also a 50% fib retracement from the swing high of august 2008 to the swing low of the jan 2009 candle.

Weekly trend is looking like it will close up for the week pushing up from finding support at the 94.50 level where we had confluence with the 50% fib from the lows in january to the high in late march. Price is pushing up against the 20 currently.

Daily trend is up after retracing off of the 94.50 level and was able to push up through and close above the 20 today but stopped at another 50% fib from the highs earlier this month to support at the 94.50 level. All ma's are leveling out right now looking for direction from the 20?? Price seems to be headed back down to the 20 for now, we will se how PA reacts to it.....
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  • #3,434
  • May 29, 2009 3:09am May 29, 2009 3:09am
Hey Graig,
Looking at the chart we can see a H&S pattern. Quite often there will be a load of orders around the neckline to sell. Traders know this and a stop hunt often ensues where the MMs etc will gun for those orders. Quite a few time the neckline will break, open all the shorts only for the big guys to fade the move, hence we ofetn see a weak rally off the neckline.

I tend to look for PA confirming this and then get short once PA confirms the fade is over. This allows the down move to then proceed with greater velocity as the other odrers have been 'shaken-out' of the market.

It happens quite often on obvious patterns. Remember, we are the feeding pool for every other market participant (us retail traders) and most big guys will know where the retail guy will place his orders. I read that if a breakout doesn't move more than 40-50 pips then you can often fade it.
I would not recommend this to anyone on the thread by the way. We need to stick to PASR, I'm just showing you some of the market dynamics at work for info really. Always be wary - things are rarely as they seem!
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #3,435
  • May 29, 2009 3:20am May 29, 2009 3:20am
Strat, sorry for the delayed reply. You mentioned Elliot Waves on EUR:USD the other day. I can see a clear 3 wave down move, and then 4 waves in an upmove. EW's would suggest the up move will consist of 5 waves, which would suggest one more push higher.

Would you agree?
  • #3,436
  • May 29, 2009 7:35am May 29, 2009 7:35am
Quoting Grimweasel
euraud looks interesting.

1. Big boss showing downward momentum but up trend line still intact.
2. Boss has some interesting PA around the 61% Fib swing low to high from the big boss. Hammer week before but not really hanging into free space and trapped under the monthly 20ema, but far from weekly 20ema.
3. Worker - PA trapped under 20ema and SR at 1.8000. Hammer on 7 May is still intact but it looks as if the bears are weak. The sells have not managed to put in lower lows. Today and yest are showing dojis holding above the 61% Fib level.

I'm...
Hmm - no replies on this Danny boy! Could it be that everyone else like me thinks its gone into hibernation?

I can't do anything on this anyway as I don't have sufficient data.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,437
  • May 29, 2009 7:42am May 29, 2009 7:42am
Quoting pi piper
I see something very interesting here on the GBP/CHF. We are at or around the 17,500 level. We can see it has acted as Support before. When it broke back in Dec price collapsed down a very long way. 17,500 has acted as Resistance recently with a strong move away in Feb.

On the Weekly chart we can see that the last time price crossed the 20 it was pushed down. We have crossed the 20 now and it is turning up as it did before. However we have spent a longer time inside the MA's on the Weekly.

I think 17,500 is clearly very important to this pair....
Yes, as per previous posts on GBPCHF, these are the levels we are watching.
The only rules are (1) No reporting of pips and (2) No links to external sites and of course being positive and constructive in your posts.

One more thing, when you post a chart, first save it from MT4 as "Active Chart" - don't change any sizes otherwise we end up with a large oversize chart as you have here which screws us all up!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,438
  • Edited 10:50am May 29, 2009 7:57am | Edited 10:50am
Quoting patrick25
Hi All,

AUDCAD

Big Boss looks like will send out a bond @ 61.8% for this month.

Big aldready sent a bond last week @ major S&R 8850.

Daily is currently in an uptrend but a break down from 8600 level will align with Big Boss and Boss.
I don’t do AUDCAD – don’t like 2 commodity currencies fighting each other – AUDJPY is as far as I go exotic wise.

Seems to me like you’re thinking short.

I think you might be letting the BIG BOSS fool you

Look at the BOSS – in a bull flag pattern being supported by the 20 & 50. It’s in an uptrend within the longer downtrend still making HH and HLs.

Yes the Worker has lost the support of the 20 but it’s still making HH and HLs

Now, with regard to PASR – wait a minute – where is your S&R?

We cannot do an analysis without S&R – it’s like driving a Ferrari with no steering wheel or brakes!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,439
  • May 29, 2009 8:13am May 29, 2009 8:13am
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting strat
Hmm - no replies on this Danny boy! Could it be that everyone else like me thinks its gone into hibernation?

I can't do anything on this anyway as I don't have sufficient data.
Hey -i posted on this on 15th may, i've been sitting on the sides waiting for it to finish the month, price is playing between 1.77 and 1.80, last weeks bar is still holding, but i've been watching the Big Boss for a close above 1.80 - still waiting and the month is closing in on us.
  • #3,440
  • May 29, 2009 8:20am May 29, 2009 8:20am
Quoting CrudeCraig
USD/JPY Analysis

Monthly trend is still down, price is below the 20 and continuing down from the hanging man formed on the march candle which is also a 50% fib retracement from the swing high of august 2008 to the swing low of the jan 2009 candle.

Weekly trend is looking like it will close up for the week pushing up from finding support at the 94.50 level where we had confluence with the 50% fib from the lows in january to the high in late march. Price is pushing up against the 20 currently.

Daily trend is up after retracing off of the 94.50...
Crudecraig – did you ever explain your moniker? I’ve been called crude many times, very crude thousands of times!

Let’s look at what you said:

BIG BOSS: OK, definitely down as she is putting in a confirmed swing top

BOSS: While the immediate momentum is up, it is within a down trend although it is forming a double bottom on a Gann support line at 94.60ish just above the 50% retrace. However, the BIG PICTURE of the BOSS tells us that we are still in the retrace of the longer down trend.

WORKER:
“”Daily trend is up”” Maybe time to re-set the eyesight or visit the Opticians me thinks!
Look at price at April 6 and where it is at now – is this up?
Can you see stair steps going down making LL and LHs?
Yes, the previous 6 days were up BUT in the longer and dominant down trend.

“”looking for direction from the 20??””
You have got the cart before the horse, oily one!
Remember, the 20 ema is constructed from price 20 bars back in HISTORY – it is therefore LAGGING and couldn’t direct it’s way out of a paper bag!
It is only there as a GUIDE, to assist us along with all our other tools. It is not leading in any way shape or form. It takes IT”S direction from PRICE.
We must always wait for PASR to give us direction
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
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