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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #3,541
  • Edited 2:11pm Apr 18, 2007 1:59pm | Edited 2:11pm
are you sure about that? My understanding is that if the price is above or below the 89, determine if we are in the trden or in a counter trend.

Looks like I need to re read Phil's pdf.

Are you sure about that?

thanks again
Nacho

Ricky I have just added the information from Phil's pdf

Hope it helps

Again I ask you to study the movement of the price around the moving averages.
When the price are above the 89SMA the trend is normally up and visa versa. After
the price crosses the 89SMA it tends to pullback to the 21EMA before it carry on its
direction if it is a trend direction change otherwise it tend to test the 89SMA again and
then it runs over and across the 89SMA till it finds direction and then it pulls back to
the 21EMA before proceeding on its path.



Quoting RickyPluto
No, no, no, not a counter trend. The 89 SMA is pointing upwards, which is where we want to go! Therefore, it's with the trend. The RT we just had (on Monday, that I sat out on) was counter trend. Those are the potentially dangerous ones. In my mind, this sort of thing only really sunk in over the last couple of days.

It's going WITH the 89, so the 89 isn't really inclined to reject it, if you know what I'm saying.

Look at the RB on this chart on 28 March. I expect the same sort of thing to happen here.

-Ricky.
  • #3,542
  • Apr 18, 2007 2:01pm Apr 18, 2007 2:01pm
I think is to late to go short, I will wait for a TC to go bull...

Quoting Vishamerica
What do you guys think about taking a short position on GBPUSD?

Its setting up nicely...don't you think? Unless i'm just reading the whole thing wrong...which is good posibility....haha
  • #3,543
  • Apr 18, 2007 3:50pm Apr 18, 2007 3:50pm
Quoting Nacho_1975
are you sure about that? My understanding is that if the price is above or below the 89, determine if we are in the trden or in a counter trend.

Looks like I need to re read Phil's pdf.

Are you sure about that?

thanks again
Nacho

Ricky I have just added the information from Phil's pdf

Hope it helps

Again I ask you to study the movement of the price around the moving averages.
When the price are above the 89SMA the trend is normally up and visa versa. After
the price crosses the 89SMA it tends to pullback to the 21EMA before it carry on its
direction if it is a trend direction change otherwise it tend to test the 89SMA again and
then it runs over and across the 89SMA till it finds direction and then it pulls back to


the 21EMA before proceeding on its path.


When the price were above the 89SMA and it break through like the UsdJpy the mood is bearish even if the total average motion is upwards. The current movement upwards might find resistance against the 89SMA. Just be aware of it to protect any gains not becoming a loss. But give your position a chance to run with should it goes through the 89SMA. The price is in a large channel since March and it can go all the way up to 119.50 plus. Just be aware of the 89SMA and 365EMA together.

Look at 01/02/2007 for the price going through 89 and return to 89 to get resistance even that the 89 was pointing upwards coming down all the way to the 200SMA. Dont we have similar now. Just might be. Just be on the lookout and be aware. Hope you get it all to the top.
  • #3,544
  • Apr 18, 2007 3:53pm Apr 18, 2007 3:53pm
Looking at the EurUsd...
Does it look like a TC setup or a Lower High setup....little confused on that on.

Pls help me out...
  • #3,545
  • Apr 18, 2007 4:24pm Apr 18, 2007 4:24pm
Quoting Vishamerica
Looking at the EurUsd...
Does it look like a TC setup or a Lower High setup....little confused on that on.

Pls help me out...

Looks like aggressive TC. Approach to TC not very smooth. Look at TC 11/04/2007 and see the difference. The previous candles indicates indicision. Up and down in one day. SL at least 42. For me it is difficult to decide. When I dont feel good about a trade I skip it. How do you feel about it. If good then go for it. It is at 1.3600 price level as well.
  • #3,546
  • Apr 18, 2007 4:24pm Apr 18, 2007 4:24pm
Phil Thank you very much for your feedback.!!

Really appreciated

Quoting Phillip Nel
When the price were above the 89SMA and it break through like the UsdJpy the mood is bearish even if the total average motion is upwards. The current movement upwards might find resistance against the 89SMA. Just be aware of it to protect any gains not becoming a loss. But give your position a chance to run with should it goes through the 89SMA. The price is in a large channel since March and it can go all the way up to 119.50 plus. Just be aware of the 89SMA and 365EMA together.

Look at 01/02/2007 for the price going through 89 and return to 89 to get resistance even that the 89 was pointing upwards coming down all the way to the 200SMA. Dont we have similar now. Just might be. Just be on the lookout and be aware. Hope you get it all to the top.
  • #3,547
  • Apr 18, 2007 8:44pm Apr 18, 2007 8:44pm
OK, OK, Nacho's right!!! I think we were talking about different things in the end, but anyway, I've learnt my lesson. It bounced! Hopefully you got out alright.
I changed my email address in my profile and somehow got my posting priviledges withdrawn, so I couldn't post for a while.

I got out roughly +10 pips (ok a little less, I just like round numbers), and fried me up some eggs. I'm a little too keen for the hundred pippers sometimes.

I've done plenty of research analysing charts, I suppose the missing link is practical experience in managing trades. Only one way to get it. One mini-lot at a time.

This party IS over!

-Ricky.
"My main objective is to be professional but to kill him." - Mike Tyson.
  • #3,548
  • Apr 18, 2007 9:41pm Apr 18, 2007 9:41pm
Double Top for the EurUsd???
I went short at 1.3598.....looking good so far.

Any comments??
  • #3,549
  • Apr 19, 2007 1:27am Apr 19, 2007 1:27am
I defenitely dont see a double top on EUR/USD.Im using MT4 GMT +1. Im glad the trade so far is going well for you Vishamerica. Its near a channel trendline so it might breakout or more then likely it will correct lower ( ie short) but im staying from EUR/USDfor until the true nature is confirmed.
Im off on holiday so by the time Im back the question should be resolved. I was demo trading yesterday and my main problem is second guessing signals ie putting trades on before they are formed and not waiting for the nice ones of which there quite a few. A habit im learning to break but its hard!!

Good luck everyone
  • #3,550
  • Apr 19, 2007 2:08am Apr 19, 2007 2:08am
Quoting AriTron
I defenitely dont see a double top on EUR/USD.Im using MT4 GMT +1. Im glad the trade so far is going well for you Vishamerica. Its near a channel trendline so it might breakout or more then likely it will correct lower ( ie short) but im staying from EUR/USDfor until the true nature is confirmed.
Im off on holiday so by the time Im back the question should be resolved. I was demo trading yesterday and my main problem is second guessing signals ie putting trades on before they are formed and not waiting for the nice ones of which there quite a few. A habit im learning to break but its hard!!

Good luck everyone


That is why I replied to the TC signal on Eur yesterday. It was at high levels. Tomuch uncertain movement. MACD divergence. The lower high was the signal to take. 1St profit target 21EMA. SL25 to TP25 R:R 1:1 OK. 2nd Profit target+-1.3500. Give some of the position the chance should it run pas 21EMA. The price already hit 21EMA. Should be at BE.
  • #3,551
  • Apr 19, 2007 7:26am Apr 19, 2007 7:26am
I know, that this idea goes through the whole thread but...
We all know that Phillip's strategy is complete and works perfect, so this thread is devoted to teaching and looking for ways how to minimize losses. Let's make a kind of summery on this point (how to minimize losses). As far as I understood, some people have decided not to take counter trend trades at all, that can be number one.
2) Move your SL to breakeven as soon as possible
3) Don't trade if MA's are all interlaced
4) Don't take trades before important news
5) Never trade if your R:R= is Not OK
any other ideas?

I understand that for old members of this tread it's all very easy and you have disscussed it hundred times, but this kind of summery would be very useful for such newbies like me and new people on the tread. Thanks in advance for sharing your secrets .

PS. I am re-reading the tread and picking out some important ideas and phraces, will post the result later.
  • #3,552
  • Apr 19, 2007 7:35am Apr 19, 2007 7:35am
Hey pips4...What wrong with 1983??? You know you miss Duran Duran, Rick Springfield, Howard Jones, The Thompson Twins....I bet you wear your parachute pants when you trade, don't you??? C'mon, it's ok we're all friends here..

"My name is Pips4....and I'm stuck in the 80's"

Just havin' a little fun this morning... USDJPY might be settin' up....
  • #3,553
  • Apr 19, 2007 7:46am Apr 19, 2007 7:46am
Quoting Palmer
Hey pips4...What wrong with 1983??? You know you miss Duran Duran, Rick Springfield, Howard Jones, The Thompson Twins....I bet you wear your parachute pants when you trade, don't you??? C'mon, it's ok we're all friends here..

"My name is Pips4....and I'm stuck in the 80's"

Just havin' a little fun this morning... USDJPY might be settin' up....


Thanks for the laughter!! Man, you are hecka funny!...ohhh...I'm gonna get out my Howard Jones CD...wonder where the old Night Ranger Tapes are?

& Ira,

Thanks for the nice post...and your post on minimizing losses...that's something we all struggle with. It's always good to discuss risk management...it's never redundant...nothing on this forum is...sorry if I am giving that vibe lately...all discussion re: trading strategy is important.
  • #3,554
  • Apr 19, 2007 8:08am Apr 19, 2007 8:08am
I went long at 1.6349, RB GMT 8:00. First target 1.6378.

Any comments?

thanks
  • #3,555
  • Apr 19, 2007 8:25am Apr 19, 2007 8:25am
Quoting Nacho_1975
I went long at 1.6349, RB GMT 8:00. First target 1.6378.

Any comments?

thanks
Me too. But I just jumped out with 15 pips and will go to sleep it is nearly 11:30pm here in Sydney and I have a long vacation ahead of me...thanks to this trading system it will be a looooong vacation.
  • #3,556
  • Apr 19, 2007 8:31am Apr 19, 2007 8:31am
Quoting Nacho_1975
I went long at 1.6349, RB GMT 8:00. First target 1.6378.

Any comments?

thanks
Hi Nacho 1975,

EUR/CHF is now sandwitched between 89 & 8ema. Two previous attemps to break below 89 has been rejected but upward turnover has not yet been completed either. Lot of tension expected here. It will break out either way, but too early to predict. This is my observation.

Nacho and others, when we, newbie, venture into taking posision, lets discuss each other as possible as we can. We might omit something that should have been considered. How do you think ?
  • #3,557
  • Apr 19, 2007 8:39am Apr 19, 2007 8:39am
Quoting kappa
Hi Nacho 1975,

EUR/CHF is now sandwitched between 89 & 8ema. Two previous attemps to break below 89 has been rejected but upward turnover has not yet been completed either. Lot of tension expected here. It will break out either way, but too early to predict. This is my observation.

Nacho and others, when we, newbie, venture into taking posision, lets discuss each other as possible as we can. We might omit something that should have been considered. How do you think ?


If it can get through this trendline it may hit the 21 EMA, but it seems to have some trouble here...chances are it will strike 80, I'd think. But I'm flat and will sleep as it has already hit the 8 EMA.
  • #3,558
  • Apr 19, 2007 8:49am Apr 19, 2007 8:49am
Quoting ira
I know, that this idea goes through the whole thread but...
We all know that Phillip's strategy is complete and works perfect, so this thread is devoted to teaching and looking for ways how to minimize losses. Let's make a kind of summery on this point (how to minimize losses). As far as I understood, some people have decided not to take counter trend trades at all, that can be number one.
2) Move your SL to breakeven as soon as possible
3) Don't trade if MA's are all interlaced
4) Don't take trades before important news
5) Never trade if your R:R= is Not OK
any other ideas?

I understand that for old members of this tread it's all very easy and you have disscussed it hundred times, but this kind of summery would be very useful for such newbies like me and new people on the tread. Thanks in advance for sharing your secrets .

PS. I am re-reading the tread and picking out some important ideas and phraces, will post the result later.
Hi ira,

After today's loss in usd/jpy, I also started reading the thread again myself. lets share the result while we discuss possible trade oppotunities.

Good luck and happy trade !
  • #3,559
  • Apr 19, 2007 8:57am Apr 19, 2007 8:57am
I am out with a +20pips!!
Ignacio

P.S.. looks like JPY crosses are back again!!!

Quoting pip_bagger
If it can get through this trendline it may hit the 21 EMA, but it seems to have some trouble here...chances are it will strike 80, I'd think. But I'm flat and will sleep as it has already hit the 8 EMA.
  • #3,560
  • Apr 19, 2007 9:21am Apr 19, 2007 9:21am
Good idea kappa!
10 min ago my 4H candles closed, so:
EUR/USD - nothing, waiting for TC
GBP/USD - nothing, waiting for TC
USD/CHF - gave a kind of RB or HL signal, but no trade as it's caunter trend trade and to 21MA only 12 pips, SL is too big. R:R= not OK
USD/JPY - gave V agressive or RB, but no trade, same reasons as USD/CHF

GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY gave signals RB and V agr but I have problems with defining TP and SL as started to look at this pairs only today. Any thoughts? Does anyone take these treades?
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