james16 Chart Thread
- #31,124
- May 26, 2009 11:11pm May 26, 2009 11:11pm
- Joined Feb 2009 | Status: Borderline yahoo & oh-no! | 6,607 Posts
- #31,126
- May 27, 2009 12:32am May 27, 2009 12:32am
- Joined Feb 2009 | Status: Borderline yahoo & oh-no! | 6,607 Posts
re audcad weekly beob: (my own reasons for pulling out of this trade)
Shorting:
-a weekly beob when the weekly trend is up
-into a close (relative to the size of the beob) ppz with a round number
...yes I'm still a newb so I don't really know much
*** Should I instead be looking for long PA opportunities at swing lows when the weekly trend is up?
i'm still trying to understand your previous posts, but tell me if this post answers your "dilemma".
my view on audcad (looking at your chart & mine -XTB MT4) & observation of your chart above:
---the weekly bar/candle, to me, is like a PB/BEOB hybrid.
(the BEOB bar/candle is fairly huge, comparing to the previous 5 bars which average about 210-220+ pips in range. the bar/candle engulfed by the latest BEOB only has about 130+ pips in range. this is why i say it's fairly huge)---audcad weekly trend is down (based on that weekly BEOB). if u want to go more technical about it, then audcad is in a 0.87 - 0.89range (or the much wider 0.86 - 0.90 range)
---this is a weekly trade (short based on weekly BEOB), therefore we should give it more leeway/time to "mature" & present itself. if indeed u exited this trade then your exit is premature (unless there are money management/account balance concerns, that is, u deliberately have much tighter stops, which i often have/do). the BEOB is invalidated only if the 0.8980 high is breached convincingly.
--the middle up (red) trendline u mentioned (before u edited your post) could be deemed as already invalidated (although that trendline may seem to be respected by 2 bars/candles --the March & april lows). the blue up trendline ,on the other hand, is incorrectly drawn (probably because u drew this TL from a lower timeframe). g_j_hook@yah may have a better opinion on this (on trendlines) than me.
To answer your Question above (***), yes. look for long PA opportunities at swing lows when the weekly (or daily; any timeframe for that matter) trend is up. BUT, in this particular case, remember a BEOB presented itself, off the 365EMA & 0.89 PPZ, & the trend is down, so the trade is to the short side. (Look at some of jarroo's latest posts: here & here)
we had a quite lengthy discussion yesterday about audcad. i think jarroo's stop (which i think is fairly tight & i like that) mentioned here is still not hit. I think he placed a fairly tight stop (0.8815) thinking that if price breaches it, the (smaller) 0.87 -0.88 range is no longer taking effect & hence he must be out of his short trade. hopefully he can respond regarding this.
Hope i shed some light
- #31,127
- May 27, 2009 12:44am May 27, 2009 12:44am
adam777,
i'm still trying to understand your previous posts, but tell me if this post answers your "dilemma".
my view on audcad (looking at your chart & mine -XTB MT4) & observation of your chart above:
---the weekly bar/candle, to me, is like a PB/BEOB hybrid.
I appreciate the time you've taken to answer and I'll study your response.
WARNING: Don't follow me as I'm just learning
- #31,128
- May 27, 2009 12:52am May 27, 2009 12:52am
- Joined Feb 2009 | Status: Borderline yahoo & oh-no! | 6,607 Posts
i have more time allocated to responding rather than for trading. 
let's see if other traders can respond too. mine may not be the best response there is.
let's see if other traders can respond too. mine may not be the best response there is.
- #31,130
- May 27, 2009 2:15am May 27, 2009 2:15am
- Joined Sep 2005 | Status: J16 Senior Member | 13,635 Posts
Looks good Ted. Running into heavy Res.
James16:
THIS IS CRITICAL.
WE MUST LEARN TO:
Notice a strong s/r area just beyond our pa if it exists.
Know that if we trade into it we had better be prepared for a quick reversal that could give us a loss if we are not prepared.
if we know its there, we have several choices.
1. get out when it gets there for a small profit.
2. take a small partial profit and move the remainder to BE.
3. stay in with your total position hoping for a break and move your stop to BE.
4. Don't enter until the level has been broken.
Got to love that #4 of "THIS IS CRITCAL" from James16. I tend to use it very much.
Looks like it worked out well if applied on this potential trade.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
- #31,131
- May 27, 2009 2:18am May 27, 2009 2:18am
- Joined Sep 2005 | Status: J16 Senior Member | 13,635 Posts
believe it or not, there doesn't need to be a bigger reason then that
Also many of your PPZs, are created b/c of the round number, not the other way around
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
- #31,132
- May 27, 2009 2:35am May 27, 2009 2:35am
- Joined Feb 2009 | Status: Borderline yahoo & oh-no! | 6,607 Posts
- #31,135
- May 27, 2009 3:11am May 27, 2009 3:11am
- Joined Feb 2009 | Status: Borderline yahoo & oh-no! | 6,607 Posts
- #31,136
- May 27, 2009 3:17am May 27, 2009 3:17am
- | Joined Feb 2009 | Status: Price Stalker | 1,197 Posts
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
- #31,137
- May 27, 2009 3:19am May 27, 2009 3:19am
- Joined Feb 2009 | Status: Borderline yahoo & oh-no! | 6,607 Posts
In my limited understanding, this trade has a lot of good points in order to make a quick profit (not a runner):
1- BUOB
2- The low is on a PPZ
3- Convergence with 50% fib
4- Trend is up
5- MACD pointing up
What are your thoughts?
Lapin,
looking at your charts only (i don't know the timeframe too),
valid points, but a lot of traffic right above the BUOB (bar lows & highs).
price can be said to have been in a swing low in the previous 2 bars BUT within an established range (1.25/1.26 - 1.2950).
- #31,138
- May 27, 2009 3:21am May 27, 2009 3:21am
- Joined Feb 2009 | Status: Borderline yahoo & oh-no! | 6,607 Posts
I have been trying to get to know one pair in particular as I think its useful if you know a pair inside out and its significant levels and historic trends. EUR/USD is my pair of choice
& excellence choice of c.pair to "master".
euro --- the future reserve currency?
- #31,139
- May 27, 2009 3:22am May 27, 2009 3:22am
- Joined Sep 2005 | Status: J16 Senior Member | 13,635 Posts
re audcad weekly beob: (my own reasons for pulling out of this trade)
Shorting:
-a weekly beob when the weekly trend is up
-into a close (relative to the size of the beob) ppz with a round number
...yes I'm still a newb so I don't really know much ... I pulled out as I didn't understand the trade
*** Should I instead be looking for long PA opportunities at swing lows when the weekly trend is up?
adam777,
my view on audcad (looking at your chart & mine -XTB MT4) & observation of your chart above:
---the weekly bar/candle, to me, is like a PB/BEOB hybrid....
To tell you the truth, high quality A+ PA setups are not very complicated at all. Their pretty cut and dry from the get go.
This setup is up there quality wise and the only thing missing (for me) is the hard break and/or steady continious downward action. Which is not happening here. It also is not happening in the upward direction either.
I'm still in this trade since my stop loss was not hit. But this is not my usual way. I would have grabbed some at the 25 or 30 pips and move to break even by now. But I am giving some more leeway because I see at as a higher quality trade.
I do like Bullish PA in a uptrend and Bearish PA in a downtrend, you can't go wrong with that adam.
The BEOB is off the strong .9000 which is the 61.8 fib on the weekly time frame. This is correct?
Sorry I can't post charts now.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.