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Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #7,721
  • May 26, 2009 12:31pm May 26, 2009 12:31pm
Quoting eswgfx
Whiteflame,
May I suggest you visit www.babypips.com, go to "School" tab, and gain as much knowledge as you can. It takes only a few hours, but it will help you to get conversant with the nitty-gritties of forex.
Good catch eswgfx, I didn't realize he was using a 5-digit quote. And yes, baby pips is the place to go. I would recommend doing some demo trades as well. That way he can get the nuances of his broker/platform without the risk of losing money.
  • #7,722
  • May 26, 2009 12:33pm May 26, 2009 12:33pm
Quoting Whiteflame
Thanks Alot eswgfx that was a real help.
thanks rickyrude, will do.
thanks nooob for your input.

im doing the baybypips school at the moment but im also demo trading. i completely forgot that MT4 platform uses 5 decimal places insted of 4.

thanks again
This is not a function of MT4, it's more of a function of the broker/account you are using. YES, please demo first.
  • #7,723
  • May 26, 2009 1:37pm May 26, 2009 1:37pm
Quoting RickyRudy
So did anybody jump in today?
Hi RickyRudy,

I'm in (long) at 1.3900. It might have been a bit premature but I have got my stop to breakeven so it's time to wait and see...

Regards,

Dan
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  • #7,724
  • May 26, 2009 3:34pm May 26, 2009 3:34pm
Quoting RickyRudy
The new stop loss being used with this method is 100 pips. Reread the first post again for entry and re-entry rules.
Do you use ATR to determine SL, or you increased SL from 50 to 100 pips because of other reasons?
Thank you
alter
  • #7,725
  • May 26, 2009 3:44pm May 26, 2009 3:44pm
Quoting markmm
Looking at the weekly/daily recently bearish trend lines have been broken and used as support. I also see the double bottom at @1.2500, to me this suggest we are on the move back up to maybe 1.5000? i.e. we are on the North Train now? Does this reflect what Jackos view is? I am reading through the entire thread from the start apologies if he has mentioned this.
Hi Mark
Your evaluation is correct. Currently looking for a pullback for an entry to the long side.
  • #7,726
  • May 26, 2009 4:08pm May 26, 2009 4:08pm
Quoting alter
Do you use ATR to determine SL, or you increased SL from 50 to 100 pips because of other reasons?
Thank you
alter
Hi Alter,

It must be based on something like that, ive posted a chart with the ATR and where it was in 2007 when it was a 60 pip stop loss and now its getting back to those levels so maybe it can be reduced to 75?
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Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #7,727
  • May 26, 2009 4:23pm May 26, 2009 4:23pm
Quoting DanUK
Hi RickyRudy,

I'm in (long) at 1.3900. It might have been a bit premature but I have got my stop to breakeven so it's time to wait and see...

Regards,

Dan
excellent entry bro
  • #7,728
  • May 26, 2009 6:32pm May 26, 2009 6:32pm
Quoting DanUK
Hi RickyRudy,

I'm in (long) at 1.3900. It might have been a bit premature but I have got my stop to breakeven so it's time to wait and see...

Regards,

Dan
Thanks for sharing.

As one of my contingency plans dictated, I was tempted to go long at 1.3950. I didn't because I thought the move was primarily pushed by the news. I thought I should play it safe. I'm still holding out that it'll come back to at least 1.3900, likely farther below before going back up. Admittedly, I am apprehensive about trading around news time. That's pretty much the reason I stayed away. I would've only traded it if Jacko advised at the time.

Moreover, I didn't know what to do when I saw the good news for the US economy. This concept of good economy news for US meaning bad news for the USD has me puzzled around news time. This was when I wish I could just pick up the phone and call Jacko..LOL! I figure it's just best to stay out and let things settle.

I noticed it seems to be having a hard time pushing North of 1.4000 after riding the up momentum from the news. I'm not surprised as I kind of anticipated that. That obviously is a key number. If it shoots past this number before retracing, would going long around 1.4050 be too risky?
  • #7,729
  • May 26, 2009 6:43pm May 26, 2009 6:43pm
Quoting markmm
Hi Alter,

It must be based on something like that, ive posted a chart with the ATR and where it was in 2007 when it was a 60 pip stop loss and now its getting back to those levels so maybe it can be reduced to 75?
I'm new to this method but from what I can tell it is based off the volatility of the pair. ATR is one method used to determine volatility. From what I gather Jacko increased the stop size to account for the increased volatility created by the collapse of the economy. I don't have any ATR numbers from before this period but this is something I am interested in.
  • #7,730
  • Edited 9:46pm May 26, 2009 7:33pm | Edited 9:46pm
When will my E/U long come...?

Maybe tomorrow....maybe
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #7,731
  • May 26, 2009 7:35pm May 26, 2009 7:35pm
Quoting RickyRudy
I'm new to this method but from what I can tell it is based off the volatility of the pair. ATR is one method used to determine volatility. From what I gather Jacko increased the stop size to account for the increased volatility created by the collapse of the economy. I don't have any ATR numbers from before this period but this is something I am interested in.

Yes, Jacko historically used 50 point SL, increased to 100 given the recent conditions, on the EURUSD only.

Keltner channels are one way of using ATR's in a protective way, if interested, but that is not the method espoused by this lovely thread.

Jacko is generally a bargain hunter from what I see....entering on retracements against the underlying trend; the need to chase the market is nicely avoided, though some trades are missed.
  • #7,732
  • May 26, 2009 8:10pm May 26, 2009 8:10pm
Quoting RickyRudy
Thanks for sharing.

As one of my contingency plans dictated, I was tempted to go long at 1.3950. I didn't because I thought the move was primarily pushed by the news. I thought I should play it safe. I'm still holding out that it'll come back to at least 1.3900, likely farther below before going back up. Admittedly, I am apprehensive about trading around news time. That's pretty much the reason I stayed away. I would've only traded it if Jacko advised at the time.

Moreover, I didn't know what to do when I saw the good news for the US economy....
Hi RickyRudy,

I'm still watching from the sidelines, looking for price to retrace to my original target of 1.3750.....haven't taken a trade since identifying it on Friday. Just wondered if you were still doing the same?

It took all the discipline I had not to buy at 1.3900 earlier (it would have worked out), but I felt there wasn't far enough for it to run before hitting resistance again, so I decided to wait for a better discount

I reckon 1.4000 resistance may be rejected now it's been re-tested, then price will hopefully drop even further than it did on Tuesday. After that, when it starts to rise again it might well break out and be good for several hundred pips before succumbing to the weekly Fib and S/R. Who knows? (Other than Jacko I mean.)

If I'm completely wrong and it continues North, at least I haven't lost anything....the next set-up will come along soon enough.
  • #7,733
  • May 26, 2009 8:13pm May 26, 2009 8:13pm
Quoting luSan
When will my E/U long come...

Maybe tomorrow....maybe
Hmmm, I know how you feel!
  • #7,734
  • May 26, 2009 8:48pm May 26, 2009 8:48pm
Quoting Pipped
Hi RickyRudy,

I'm still watching from the sidelines, looking for price to retrace to my original target of 1.3750.....haven't taken a trade since identifying it on Friday. Just wondered if you were still doing the same?

It took all the discipline I had not to buy at 1.3900 earlier (it would have worked out),...
Yup, still on the sidelines. Watching it reject 1.4000 as I type. Go baby, go, take the subway down!

Yeah, I'm still looking at it the same you are. I too was tempted and I even considered running North with a 25-pip SL. But like I wrote above, I thought better of it. Discipline and patience are two things I'm working on.
  • #7,735
  • May 26, 2009 10:08pm May 26, 2009 10:08pm
will be a few days before it goes to my bounce at 3730. i'll go do the laundry and wash the dishes.



Quoting RickyRudy
Yup, still on the sidelines. Watching it reject 1.4000 as I type. Go baby, go, take the subway down!

Yeah, I'm still looking at it the same you are. I too was tempted and I even considered running North with a 25-pip SL. But like I wrote above, I thought better of it. Discipline and patience are two things I'm working on.
  • #7,736
  • May 26, 2009 11:00pm May 26, 2009 11:00pm
I usally ignore japanese candlesticks (prefering prings bar patterns) but, there are two hangin man bars right at 1.40. Good chance we're going down a bit but im not confident enough to take it here. If we push down, push back up, and we can't get past those hanging men i'll look to go short at 1.40ish.
  • #7,737
  • May 27, 2009 1:58am May 27, 2009 1:58am
Quoting RickyRudy
I noticed it seems to be having a hard time pushing North of 1.4000 after riding the up momentum from the news. I'm not surprised as I kind of anticipated that. That obviously is a key number. If it shoots past this number before retracing, would going long around 1.4050 be too risky?
Hi RickyRudy,

I am waiting for the London session to begin today to see what sort of direction we are likely to get...

Personally I wouldn't go long at 1.4050 on a breakout, I would wait for price to get past it, pull back (retest) and then move off. That would show more strength. The reason I entered at 1.3900 is that if we did get resistance at 1.4000 (as we did/have) I had enough room to get my stop to breakeven. If we get past then that is great (for me!), if not I am at no risk (barring any broker disasters!).

Hope that helps!

Regards,
Dan
  • #7,738
  • May 27, 2009 4:51am May 27, 2009 4:51am
Quoting DanUK
Hi RickyRudy,

I am waiting for the London session to begin today to see what sort of direction we are likely to get...

Personally I wouldn't go long at 1.4050 on a breakout, I would wait for price to get past it, pull back (retest) and then move off. That would show more strength. The reason I entered at 1.3900 is that if we did get resistance at 1.4000 (as we did/have) I had enough room to get my stop to breakeven. If we get past then that is great (for me!), if not I am at no risk (barring any broker disasters!).

Hope that helps!...
I agree, the 1.4050 seems like very strong resistance point and I think another retrace to at least 1.3900, hopefully down to the highest 50 fib (haven't got charts in front of me). If it does break 1.4050 then the next target is the weekly 50% fib (with some round numbers in between).
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #7,739
  • May 27, 2009 5:42am May 27, 2009 5:42am
Hey Dan.

Yup, that makes sense. At present it seems we may not need to worry about that decision for a while. It's still headed South at the moment.
  • #7,740
  • May 27, 2009 7:09am May 27, 2009 7:09am
Looks like its on a retrace, theres a 50% fib just below 1.3900 from the last swing low on 4hr, might be a place to get in, or wait for a big discount to 1.3750 50 fib? guess Price action will give us a clue.
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
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