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Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

  • #3,361
  • May 26, 2009 2:38pm May 26, 2009 2:38pm
Quoting Life of Pi_p
I haven't been able to contribute much lately. Just thought I'd pop this AUD/USD sucker up. This is just beautiful on the daily chart how it lined up for my s/r lines and trendlines. Today we bounced exactly off my support line and the faster uptrend line (which has us in a tightening rising wedge right now). The yellow EMA is the J16 365EMA and it slices thru price right at the point where a PPZ could form.
More interesting to me is how each daily bar from around the end of April has completely "filled" the S/R gap. In other words, the open of the bar goes straight up from its level of support to the next level of resistance. This tells us a lot and is very valuable information.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,362
  • May 26, 2009 2:57pm May 26, 2009 2:57pm
Quoting strat
The style we are teaching on here is conservative, safe, low risk, stress free trading on the Daily time frame and up. One of the ways to do this is to ALWAYS trade in the direction of the trend. This then begs the question "Which trend". The answer is and always will be, THE IMMEDIATE TREND. The next question MUST be "is the immediate trend in agreement with the next larger trend". We need to know this to determine whether we are trading with the trend or against the trend. A trade with the overall trend has more chance of success (profitability)...
Thanks for taking the time to explain. That makes a lot of sense.
  • #3,363
  • May 26, 2009 3:38pm May 26, 2009 3:38pm
Here is one that I'm watching for a breakout in either direction. Eur/Jpy is coiling up for a move. BIG BOSS gearing up for an inside bar after forming a spinning top last month. BOSS is confused and stuck between 20 and 50. As far as S/R goes on the weekly, price is holding above 128.00 which on the weekly was a nice resistance level from the base built late last year and early this year. The WORKER is pictured below. I have a whole bunch of weekly and daily s/r levels posted, but right now the big thing for me is the 131.00 level. That's been a major flip level for a while now. It appears to be in the exact middle of the coil/pennant that is forming. Also note how the 20E, 50S and 150E are all basically sitting at that level as well waiting for more data (note, I'm using Broco MT4 which starts at 6pm est Sunday but does not print a sunday bar so my MAs will differ from a lot of you). It is interesting to watch this pair right now as its the product of the tug-o-war between the rising eur/usd and the falling usd/jpy
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,364
  • May 26, 2009 3:50pm May 26, 2009 3:50pm
another one I'm following is gbp/chf. BIG BOSS is fighting upwards even if it appears to be inching its way. BOSS is in an ascending triangle right now with the key level being the ultra-obvious 1.75 that Stevie Wonder can see bright as day. Now to the WORKER. The ascending triangle helps make more sense out of the chop we've seen the past few months. Price is above the 20 which is currently above the 50 and both are rising. We're starting to see some separation. Again, the line in the sand is 1.75, but as can be seen on the daily, the 150ema is an obstacle at the moment too although not really relevant to what Strat is teaching. Just something left over from J16 thread.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpchf weekly asc tri 526.gif Size: 24 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpchf daily asc tri 526.gif Size: 34 KB
  • #3,365
  • May 26, 2009 4:07pm May 26, 2009 4:07pm
Regarding my last post and ascending triangles. Whether it does what its supposed to do or not is irrelevant. Sometimes playing a failed pattern works even better. GBP/JPY made 4 ascending triangles on its way down in 2007 and 2008. Each one of them failed...although the 1st one did break out upwards first but didn't meet its "expectations". With patterns like these, sometimes they work, sometimes they don't. They are formed by s/r lines and trendlines so we should know the real story behind them anyway without having to define it as a triangle, wedge, pennant, head and shoulders dandruff shampoo, etc. With gbp/chf, its a battle between 1.75 and the rising trendline.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,366
  • May 26, 2009 4:12pm May 26, 2009 4:12pm
Hi Strat

Just to give you an update. Here goes…

Since starting to read the thread in March and learning, I have done one trade, with real money, which went well. I didn’t post the other day when you asked for updates, as I felt embarrassed that I would be the only one who had taken only one trade!

I am waiting for the best setups, and I did miss a couple of trades, that I would have taken, if I had not been away. I will only be trading Hammers & S Stars in the direction of the trend, combined with everything else taught here. In addition to my trading plan, I now have a journal, watchlist and a MM spreadsheet with pre-determined % risks (my max is 1%) against SL, with the maximum amount per pip for 1,2 or 3 lots.

I am also now zooming out of the charts and making special note of areas that have been hit a few years previously e.g. gbp/chf around 1.7500 in Dec 1995 –I know you didn’t find my post on this too interesting the other day! However, I am watching it and also it’s now broken the 150 MA after its 3rd try..I’ll keep watching…

I am viewing/treating any potential loss as an investment in my trading business and to learn from my mistakes. To overcome the mental barrier of a trading loss, I now view any loss that I accept, as an investment, equivalent to ‘advertising costs’; in business one can get a zero return on magazine adverts, or one can gain anything from a mediocre to a brilliant result. This is just how I deal with it.

Regarding any help, yours and other posts, are helping enormously. I would like at some point to learn more about different candle formations, groups or individual. I have just finished reading a great book by Mr Pring on Price action and I will be ordering Steve Nison that you recommended earlier in the thread.

One another note, I am finding it much easier to check the charts daily. Gone are the days on the 15 min TF with no room to make an informative decision! I am not trigger happy now, I’m just watching and waiting for a good setup.

Hope this helps! Now I better catch up with the charts..hope you all had a great holiday break. Nicole
  • #3,367
  • May 26, 2009 4:26pm May 26, 2009 4:26pm
Quoting Life of Pi_p
another one I'm following is gbp/chf. BIG BOSS is fighting upwards even if it appears to be inching its way. BOSS is in an ascending triangle right now with the key level being the ultra-obvious 1.75 that Stevie Wonder can see bright as day. Now to the WORKER. The ascending triangle helps make more sense out of the chop we've seen the past few months. Price is above the 20 which is currently above the 50 and both are rising. We're starting to see some separation. Again, the line in the sand is 1.75, but as can be seen on the daily, the 150ema is...
Just to add to this, I've got a downward trendline on the BOSS GBP/CHF, connecting highs at 28th Oct '08, 3rd Aug '08, 14th Sep '08, and price is touching it right now.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,368
  • May 26, 2009 4:27pm May 26, 2009 4:27pm
Quoting FxPippy
Hi Strat

[font=Verdana]Just to give you an update....

You are not the only one who has taken only one trade and it is nothing to be embarrassed about. I have only taken one as well, I have entered orders for 2 more trades. One of which was not filled, and I changed my mind on the other after posting it.
  • #3,369
  • May 26, 2009 4:45pm May 26, 2009 4:45pm
Hi

Im watching this pair, because on the PA tonight, it's trading straight into major R at 1.7900, only 40 pips away, that's been hit as either S or R in 2005, 2006 & 2007.

I need to see what happens at 1.7900 and look for appropriate PASR.

Will post my chart later, just checking out other pairs, there's interesting PA around, but the 'devils in the detail'.
  • #3,370
  • May 26, 2009 5:17pm May 26, 2009 5:17pm
Quoting pmn100
Just to add to this, I've got a downward trendline on the BOSS GBP/CHF, connecting highs at 28th Oct '08, 3rd Aug '08, 14th Sep '08, and price is touching it right now.

Attachment
Thank you for posting that. That adds even more weight to the significance of this area in the next few days/weeks
  • #3,371
  • May 26, 2009 7:04pm May 26, 2009 7:04pm
Hi Strat and team

Been 2 weeks or so since I lasted posted, havent been looking at charts due to recent life events

Anyways im still here and with alot more spare time on my hands, after I have caught up with the pages in the thread ive missed, ill post some tradescharts.
  • #3,372
  • May 26, 2009 7:08pm May 26, 2009 7:08pm
I am respectfully submitting my first contribution to the thread. I have tried to internalize the content of the first 99 pages and felt the need to reword the trader's statement I found here for myself.

I am a professional trader. My job is to take acceptable risk. As I manage my trades, minimizing losses and letting my profits run, I am successful. Because I am a professional trader, I forgive myself easily for making rare mistakes and move on to new opportunities. I feel great that I have the discipline to control my emotions and the patience required to be a professional trader. As a professional trader, by this time next year, I will have increased my account by 1000%. I will achieve this by following my trading plan, always managing my risk, and controlling my emotions. I am confident and believe in my own ability to be consistently profitable because I AM a professional trader.


I replaced the monetary gain portions with what I felt were more appropriate use of language for a professional trader. The emphasis is on controlling risk and percentages instead of $$. Since I intend this to be working document for me (as it is superior to the one I wrote long ago) I am soliciting feedback for improvement. thanks.

walt
ps. Apology #1 - the screenname is not creative, I already know it. Didn't have much choice because:
Apology #2 - I am formerly of the evil empire. As an account manager at a futures brokerage as their forex geek, I was advised to use my name to avoid regulatory hassles.
I hope to prove by my humble help to any that I can here that not everybody who works(ed) in the business is as subhuman as Merchant W**kers.


pps. On a more serious note, I will finish the remainder of the thread before posting anything else. I have 178 pages of notes cut and pasted from the pertinent posts in the first 99 pages so I'm not lurking here, just paying my dues before I consume any more time. Thanks again to all here.

  • #3,373
  • May 26, 2009 8:10pm May 26, 2009 8:10pm
Quoting strat
The style we are teaching on here is conservative, safe, low risk, stress free trading on the Daily time frame and up. One of the ways to do this is to ALWAYS trade in the direction of the trend. This then begs the question "Which trend". The answer is and always will be, THE IMMEDIATE TREND.
Hi Strat

Thanks for another informative post. I've had trouble in the past trying to determine which trend to trade with. It helps to see it laid out in a picture.

I've almost caught up on all the previous posts but at the moment one of the areas I'm struggling with is support and resistance lines on my charts. I tend to end up with too many. I still need to fully review some of the examples that you have given and it may fall into place with more practice.

Greg
  • #3,374
  • May 26, 2009 8:25pm May 26, 2009 8:25pm
Quoting Life of Pi_p
Here is one that I'm watching for a breakout in either direction....
Looks good for a re-test of psycho 137.00
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,375
  • May 26, 2009 8:27pm May 26, 2009 8:27pm
Quoting Life of Pi_p
another one I'm following is gbp/chf....
We need to see what she's going to do at the re-test of 1.7480 (say psycho 1.7500)
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,376
  • May 26, 2009 8:28pm May 26, 2009 8:28pm
Quoting Life of Pi_p
Regarding my last post and ascending triangles....
Right on, dandruff!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,377
  • May 26, 2009 8:30pm May 26, 2009 8:30pm
Quoting FxPippy
Hi Strat

[font=Verdana]Just to give you an update....
Very good, Nicole and great attitude - the set ups will come
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,378
  • May 26, 2009 8:32pm May 26, 2009 8:32pm
Quoting pmn100
Just to add to this, I've got a downward trendline on the BOSS GBP/CHF, connecting highs at 28th Oct '08, 3rd Aug '08, 14th Sep '08, and price is touching it right now.

Attachment
But don't forget S&R has priority over a TL, so the horizontal resistance forming the top part of the wedge is what you need to watch and act on.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,379
  • May 26, 2009 8:34pm May 26, 2009 8:34pm
Quoting FxPippy
Hi

Im watching this pair, because on the PA tonight, it's trading straight into major R at 1.7900, only 40 pips away, that's been hit as either S or R in 2005, 2006 & 2007.

I need to see what happens at 1.7900 and look for appropriate PASR.

Will post my chart later, just checking out other pairs, there's interesting PA around, but the 'devils in the detail'.
OK as long as you don't stand in front of the North bound express!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,380
  • May 26, 2009 8:35pm May 26, 2009 8:35pm
Quoting el_duende
Hi Strat and team

Been 2 weeks or so since I lasted posted, havent been looking at charts due to recent life events

Anyways im still here and with alot more spare time on my hands, after I have caught up with the pages in the thread ive missed, ill post some tradescharts.
Good to see you back, el duende!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
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