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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #19,841
  • May 26, 2009 8:33am May 26, 2009 8:33am
Quoting Iskandar
Tq Saka for the infomation.
My pleasure

Quoting xeneric
Saka. We have really missed your posts. I hope you are well and making lots of pips.
Thanks, my friend
Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #19,842
  • May 26, 2009 8:52am May 26, 2009 8:52am
Quoting macalmd
great analysis, did you short GBP instead ?
I didn't short it, we should wait a more comfortable plase to short it. I do another analysis at 3 TFs, hope it makes sense.
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Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #19,843
  • May 26, 2009 12:41pm May 26, 2009 12:41pm
Quoting welshguy2000
Morning all,

First of all I just wanted to thank everyone for the feedback i'm getting on the videos trade reviews & the lessons (next one will be uploaded tonight)

Right onto today, i've decided to a short on the EUR its quite a risky trade - which I wouldn't normally take. These reasons i'll explain in the video review. Here are the reasons why I have taken the trade:

1) Series of 4H spinner closes showing trendline resistance, and lack of momentum to break price channel.
2) After the belt holding candle close at 16:00 (21/05/09) the small...
Closed this trade today @ 1.3905 after the 5M chart placed a higher high.

+ 43 pips

NOT my best trade as stated before this was counter trend and took on alot more risk. Will explain all in the video review which I will post tomorrow.

Cheers WG
  • #19,844
  • May 26, 2009 12:43pm May 26, 2009 12:43pm
Quoting welshguy2000
Closed this trade today @ 1.3905 after the 5M chart placed a higher high.

+ 43 pips

NOT my best trade as stated before this was counter trend and took on alot more risk. Will explain all in the video review which I will post tomorrow.

Cheers WG
gj i was hoping u already got out with profit too
{Promotion Removed}
  • #19,845
  • May 26, 2009 2:41pm May 26, 2009 2:41pm
i am expecting this trend to go through further a bit more.
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  • #19,846
  • May 26, 2009 7:11pm May 26, 2009 7:11pm
Normally I don't do CT, b/c they can be tricky. So I decreased my lot size. Notice the evening star off the TL. I was not comfortable with 50+ SL on a CT, so I waited for a retracement on the 5 min. On the 5 min it was not my best trade, so I was in the negative for some time. I entered at 2 different places as seen by the 2 arrows Reasons for the trade
1) evening star: previous 3 candles from the entry candle
2) false break out of the trend line a few candle before
3) price closed below the 8 EMA which was providing support
4) price broke out of a box range in the 5 min - I actually have 5 min chart in which I make each candle stick very small so I can see the price action over a long perior of time and draw TL
  • #19,847
  • May 26, 2009 7:13pm May 26, 2009 7:13pm
forgot the charts
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  • #19,848
  • May 26, 2009 7:35pm May 26, 2009 7:35pm
Quoting xeneric
The main difference is that Welsh Guy is now teaching the strategy instead of Phil. As all the previous posts have said, you need to start studying from the beginning of the thread. If you are a beginner, it is probably best to study all Phil's lessons and examples and understand them well before watching WG's videos. WG's video's are all based on Phil's strategy.

ooo ic, well I have already saw the pdf by philip on another website months back and have been using it. but only when I come in and saw this thread then i see much more to this strategy. However I do know that I do have much more to learn though I finish all the mp3 and stuff

however, anyone know where philip gone to? I mean I do wish to thank him for such a great strategy and all the time he put to help ppl here
  • #19,849
  • May 26, 2009 10:52pm May 26, 2009 10:52pm
i am looking for a end of bar indicator, does anyone have a good one?
Gary
  • #19,850
  • May 27, 2009 4:09am May 27, 2009 4:09am
Quoting alpine4133
i am looking for a end of bar indicator, does anyone have a good one?
Hi Alpine these should do the trick.

EJ is a timer that counts down to the close
Bar alarm give a tone that u set to be alerted to the bar close.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 EJ_CandleTime.mq4   2 KB | 473 downloads
File Type: mq4 bar_close_alarm_V1.mq4   2 KB | 521 downloads
  • #19,851
  • Edited 7:35am May 27, 2009 4:14am | Edited 7:35am
I am going to do more live 4 hour trades. I have a small GFT account.

Today I took a short on the euro as the price is ranging after a stron move up. this is a more aggressive trade.

the price has formed a lower high and the macd has divergence with a weak round top.

with out the lower high on the price I would have passed. stop is at 1.4007

decent RR also put me in.

like always hold till stopped.

update **stop cut to 1/2** Stop moved to BE
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  • #19,852
  • Edited 6:39am May 27, 2009 6:09am | Edited 6:39am
Possible trade coming up on GBP/USD. I'll sit on the fence and watch it develop, and if I like what I see I'll enter.

Reasons
1) Earlier hammer off of the 21 (and near 1.58 psych level) and ZB on MACD, which I missed, but R:R ratio wasn't that good anyway;
2) Price is now riding the 8 EMA;
3) Price made a higher high;
4) On the daily, PA bounced off of the 8 EMA.

Looking for
1) 4H candle closing above 1.6000;
2) PA breaking through 38.2 fib.

Possible targets
1) TP1 = ~1.64 (resistance from November and 365 EMA on daily)
2) TP2 = ~1.68 (just under the 50% retracement line)

Will see if it goes above 38.2 fib line or if it stalls somewhere between 1.6 and the 38.2 fib line at 1.6041, but it's worth keeping an eye on it. Perhaps it will consolidate a bit until Existing Home Sales. Hopefully I'll be home to take advantage of a possible move up.

So what do you guys think? Did anybody take on yesterday's ZB? Is anybody watching this potential trade on GU as well?
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  • #19,853
  • May 27, 2009 9:00am May 27, 2009 9:00am
Quoting Marubozu
Possible trade coming up on GBP/USD. I'll sit on the fence and watch it develop, and if I like what I see I'll enter.

Reasons
1) Earlier hammer off of the 21 (and near 1.58 psych level) and ZB on MACD, which I missed, but R:R ratio wasn't that good anyway;
2) Price is now riding the 8 EMA;
3) Price made a higher high;
4) On the daily, PA bounced off of the 8 EMA.

Looking for
1) 4H candle closing above 1.6000;
2) PA breaking through 38.2 fib.

Possible targets
1) TP1 = ~1.64 (resistance from November and 365 EMA on daily)
2)...
I've got my eyes on this - I want to see a close above that fib level 1.6043! We haven't seen any form of retrace of this past strong move higher, so I just want to confirm that this 38.2 fib line isn't the turning point!

Awesome analysis though - you are really starting to understand the charts.

Cheers WG
  • #19,854
  • Edited 1:34pm May 27, 2009 12:03pm | Edited 1:34pm
Quoting Marubozu
Possible trade coming up on GBP/USD. I'll sit on the fence and watch it develop, and if I like what I see I'll enter.

Reasons
1) Earlier hammer off of the 21 (and near 1.58 psych level) and ZB on MACD, which I missed, but R:R ratio wasn't that good anyway;
2) Price is now riding the 8 EMA;
3) Price made a higher high;
4) On the daily, PA bounced off of the 8 EMA.

Looking for
1) 4H candle closing above 1.6000;
2) PA breaking through 38.2 fib.

Possible targets
1) TP1 = ~1.64 (resistance from November and 365 EMA on daily)
2)...
I’m watching this pair , but I didn’t entry because R/R is not good.
I notice yesterday's ZB too, because 8&21EMA control the market rhythm. but I didn’t trade for R/R reason.
I notice PA will upward most time in this situation(such as yesterday's ZB and today’s TC) , but SL is difficult to set. usually it's too big.

Who can teach me what should I do in the similar situations???
  • #19,855
  • May 27, 2009 12:13pm May 27, 2009 12:13pm
now that I only read till page 50 of this thread, (+ the pdfs, mp3 of cos) anyone has any advice as to whether I should just continue reading from there, hoping to catch up, or should I jump into some post, like the videos and such. thanks!
  • #19,856
  • May 27, 2009 12:21pm May 27, 2009 12:21pm
Quoting >Apocalypto<
I am going to do more live 4 hour trades. I have a small GFT account.

Today I took a short on the euro as the price is ranging after a stron move up. this is a more aggressive trade.

the price has formed a lower high and the macd has divergence with a weak round top.

with out the lower high on the price I would have passed. stop is at 1.4007

decent RR also put me in.

like always hold till stopped.

update **stop cut to 1/2** Stop moved to BE
I observed that classic MACD signal lag behind PA and SL is difficult to set. It looks we need small TF to resolve the matter??
You has said you changed the method to 5&15 min, Can you show us how to do it?
  • #19,857
  • May 27, 2009 4:23pm May 27, 2009 4:23pm
Quoting welshguy2000
I've got my eyes on this - I want to see a close above that fib level 1.6043! We haven't seen any form of retrace of this past strong move higher, so I just want to confirm that this 38.2 fib line isn't the turning point!
So did you take the odds on when it closed above the fib level? I didn't.

At first it looked pretty good, but I wanted to see if there's a pullback to the 38.2 fib line so I got down to 1H and it broke through the fib line, made a spinner and then closed under the fib line. At first I though it may retest the 1.6000 level and bouce off of it, but it already closed below this level as well on the 1H.

Could bounce off of the 21 EMA on 4H and then make a second attempt at breaking through resistance. We'll see tomorrow.

I've got that MT4 from Metaquotes' website, the one with data from Alpari, and looking at that, I can say that the signal was clearer.

You can see that the one from IBFX made a bullish belt holding, while the one with data from Alpari made a spinner and closed a bit lower. Not that important I guess... just saying.

P.S.: 5-decimal quotes suck ass!
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  • #19,858
  • May 27, 2009 5:13pm May 27, 2009 5:13pm
I am still new to Phil's stuff and are busy studying and demo trading it. I saw the MACD_Colored_v103.mq4 today for the first time. Works well but was 4 decimals. Modified it to 5 decimals for those that are interested.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 MACD_Colored_v103desimal.mq4   13 KB | 609 downloads
File Type: ex4 MACD_Colored_v103desimal.ex4   18 KB | 442 downloads
Never give up !!!
  • #19,859
  • May 27, 2009 6:27pm May 27, 2009 6:27pm
I would go though the lessons multiple times and then practice, a lot. You will mess up and have many losing trades. just understand that losing is part of anything you want to accomplish, just get up, dust yourself off, and try again. My belief is that those that last in this game are the ones that don't blow their accounts, study, and they never give up. Good luck
Raymond

Quoting yuan83
now that I only read till page 50 of this thread, (+ the pdfs, mp3 of cos) anyone has any advice as to whether I should just continue reading from there, hoping to catch up, or should I jump into some post, like the videos and such. thanks!
  • #19,860
  • May 27, 2009 7:16pm May 27, 2009 7:16pm
Quoting Morelands
I would go though the lessons multiple times and then practice, a lot. You will mess up and have many losing trades. just understand that losing is part of anything you want to accomplish, just get up, dust yourself off, and try again. My belief is that those that last in this game are the ones that don't blow their accounts, study, and they never give up. Good luck
Raymond

Well said! I remember Phil said in one of his MP3s that you should spend about 3 hrs a day for several years. It takes a lot of hard work to be a good trader.
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