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Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

  • #3,341
  • May 25, 2009 8:21pm May 25, 2009 8:21pm
Quoting golfer27
Hi all i'm accessing my computer remotely, so can't post charts( i'm a bit of a luddite anyway, but when did things change so fast?? Accessing, securely i hope, my computer, from the other side of the world??)
Anyway, i have a downwards T/L drawn from Mar 18, which touched on Apr 28, and again on May 14.Threrefore, 3 touches, conventional wisdom, validated.
(i draw my TL by switching to line chart, not bar or candlestick= i find it eliminates noise=not sure if its important)
On my daily chart, price has broken above this TL, but the trend is down.
I...
Thought you were on vacation/holiday?

See my reply to pmn100
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,342
  • May 25, 2009 8:43pm May 25, 2009 8:43pm
Quoting rgrace
First of all congratulations on your discipline, that was and still is the hardest thing for me....
Young Mr. Grace - you never cease to amaze me with the quality and common sense in your posts! I don't know how old you are but you certainly write with the wisdom of Lotuselanman who is senior to me! Neither did I realise that you used to be a M1 freak! Mark, Jacko's ex broker trading partner, always says that the short term time frame traders never last long, so you did really good to get out while you were still sane (and in good health). Thanks for posting your story as it will help so many in a similar position.

I am really glad that you are devoting a couple of hours a day to practicing on your charts - THE only route to trading success. I hope all the others take note of this and follow suit.

I have never heard the old saying "an amateur practices until he gets it right, a professional practices until he cannot get it wrong" before but I have definitely recorded it in my list of "sayings". Thank you.

If you continue to exercise PATIENCE and DISCIPLINE and control your psyche (GREED and FEAR) when live with REAL money and show consistent profits (equity curve) over a minimum of one year, you WILL definitely become a Professional Trader and not only that but a healthy and stress free Professional Trader.

Thank you.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,343
  • May 25, 2009 8:47pm May 25, 2009 8:47pm
Quoting Strat Team
There is no trade recommendation tonight.
Although there are some developments we like the low volume and liquidity today (with the US and UK holiday) mean that it would not be conservative to recommend any. Here is hoping we have something good for tomorrow!
Since we are only going to post the Strat Trading Team recommendation at the end of each week, the next one will be sometime next week - end. Hopefully, the markets will oblige us with suitable PASR!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,344
  • May 25, 2009 9:08pm May 25, 2009 9:08pm
Hey guys, I was going to re-enter euraud after that shooting start but price went above it so canceling my order.

I have exams all this week so I most likely wont be posting anymore until next week. After that I will put my full attention towards progressing on the path, I have much to accomplish.
  • #3,345
  • May 25, 2009 9:12pm May 25, 2009 9:12pm
Quoting Naws
Hey guys, I was going to re-enter euraud after that shooting start but price went above it so canceling my order.

I have exams all this week so I most likely wont be posting anymore until next week. After that I will put my full attention towards progressing on the path, I have much to accomplish.
Top priority are your exams, so focus on those - and get good results! We will still be here when you get back, Inshallah!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,346
  • May 26, 2009 12:56am May 26, 2009 12:56am
Quoting Naws
Hey guys, I was going to re-enter euraud after that shooting start but price went above it so canceling my order.

I have exams all this week so I most likely wont be posting anymore until next week. After that I will put my full attention towards progressing on the path, I have much to accomplish.
I'm leaving my entry order in place because it hasn't been hit yet. Order to sell at 1.7874, stop is at 1.8010. I am also selling EUR/GBP short off of the bottom of today's candle. The IB4 from Sunday was followed by a BEOB today.
Bang.
  • #3,347
  • May 26, 2009 5:41am May 26, 2009 5:41am
Quoting AminAS
I am also selling EUR/GBP short off of the bottom of today's candle. The IB4 from Sunday was followed by a BEOB today.
I am not sure if it is a good idea to sell into 0.8650 support. Unless 0.8650 is broken, Big Boss is still in uptrend.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBP-daily.jpg Size: 170 KB
  • #3,348
  • May 26, 2009 5:55am May 26, 2009 5:55am
Quoting AminAS
I'm leaving my entry order in place because it hasn't been hit yet. Order to sell at 1.7874, stop is at 1.8010.
I am not sure on this one either as 1.7700 and 1.7450 S/R levels look strong and look at attached monthly chart. Although we have 4 days to close the month, does the last candle tell you something? Still wait and see, IMO.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUD - Monthly.jpg Size: 236 KB
  • #3,349
  • May 26, 2009 8:43am May 26, 2009 8:43am
Hello guys, Strat,

I guess you're getting a new disciple, whether you want it or not.

I'm not that much behind. Reading the thread, I'm just past post 56. Only 3300 or so to go.

From what I'm gathering, I believe the first advice I'd get would be "Freeze! Don't move." Stop throwing your (quite limited) money away. "Hands behind your back!"

One thing I noticed was, since I started again trading real money, 'neglecting' my demo account, one week later the demo had better results than the real one. And getting better while the 'real' account got worse. There may be a message here somewhere.

But it's hard. Hard to keep doing nothing, keep my hands away from the "new order" button. On the other hand, I feel the need to move to larger time frames.

So I needed to find a path, or The Path, before I blew my account, stomach or heart, not necessarily by that order.

Keep on rockin
  • #3,350
  • May 26, 2009 9:25am May 26, 2009 9:25am
Quoting Alec
Hello guys, Strat,

I guess you're getting a new disciple, whether you want it or not.

I'm not that much behind. Reading the thread, I'm just past post 56. Only 3300 or so to go.

From what I'm gathering, I believe the first advice I'd get would be "Freeze! Don't move." Stop throwing your (quite limited) money away. "Hands behind your back!"

One thing I noticed was, since I started again trading real money, 'neglecting' my demo account, one week later the demo had better results than the real one. And getting better while the 'real' account...
OK, Alec, you've found The Path of Learning. Sounds like you have a good dose of the demons and gremlins working against you when you put your real money on the line! Not to worry, it is one of the most common problems for new, and some, "old" traders. Since we, myself included (big time), have been through this and come out the other side, we know how to handle "The Beast"!

So, send your contact details to Lance (rogueforex), register on The Path of Learning and STOP TRADING!

Don't read any further posts and instead, go back to the beginning and READ and UNDERSTAND each and every post - no flash reading. Anything you don't understand, ask questions in here as there are many who are in your shoes and walked The Path you are taking.

And, take your time - the markets will always be here and there is always a trade being set up - somewhere.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,351
  • May 26, 2009 9:37am May 26, 2009 9:37am
Quoting strat
I am worried about all the new members who haven't posted and older members who once posted but have not done so recently.

Please advise your progress and what more we can do to help. Thank you.
Hi Strat,

I'm still here.... reading and studying. I've been on the Daily TF Price action path for nearly 2 months. This month I only made 1 trade, which went ok.

At the moment still just looking out for shooting star and hammer formations following the trend.

I haven't really had much info to post, but reading loads and sticking with it..... so big thanks to you and the team.

Thanks !!
  • #3,352
  • May 26, 2009 9:41am May 26, 2009 9:41am
Quoting paddyham
Hi Strat,

I'm still here.... reading and studying. I've been on the Daily TF Price action path for nearly 2 months. This month I only made 1 trade, which went ok.

At the moment still just looking out for shooting star and hammer formations following the trend.

I haven't really had much info to post, but reading loads and sticking with it..... so big thanks to you and the team.

Thanks !!
OK, good. Post some charts and analysis so that we can check your set up and thinking. Is your one trade demo or real money? Demo I hope.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,353
  • May 26, 2009 9:57am May 26, 2009 9:57am
I haven't executed a live trade in weeks. I'm trying to find time to read the thread and absorb the info. I wish there was an audio version of the thread so that I could listen to it in my car since I've been on the road most of the time the past few weeks
  • #3,354
  • May 26, 2009 10:45am May 26, 2009 10:45am
Quoting strat
OK, good. Post some charts and analysis so that we can check your set up and thinking. Is your one trade demo or real money? Demo I hope.
Yep demo spreadbetting a/c at the moment, until I know what I'm doing!
Went back to demo (used to trade live 15m TF).

Will post some charts and thoughts ASAP.

Ta
  • #3,355
  • May 26, 2009 11:21am May 26, 2009 11:21am
[quote=rgrace;2755683]First of all congratulations on your discipline, that was and still is the hardest thing for me. We come from similar backgrounds, I am used to trading off of the 1 min

rgrace,
Thanks for your thoughtful reply. It's good to have this thread where all the posts are quality, worth reading and learning from.

Thank You Strat for my first pick! I will post some charts this evening for your critique. I am now on a mission for pick #2.
  • #3,356
  • May 26, 2009 12:32pm May 26, 2009 12:32pm
Quoting strat
Pmn100

I don’t have sufficient data for EURAUD so here goes on your data:

BOSS:
“”down trending”” Yes, but in the long term uptrend.

“”Recent bar was a hanging man, but not at a swing high. Not sure whether to view that as bullish/bearish/neither”” Not a hanging man –it HAS to be at the end of an uptrend to be a hanging man. It is a Bond hammer bouncing off support.......
Thanks for the critic Strat, it helps me learn what I should be cautious of. I wouldn't have taken this trade myself because as many have pointed out, there are no decent trades worth taking at the moment. I mainly wanted to dip my toe into chart analysis so I can start to pick your brains.

Concerning this trade, it was always going to have minimal reward in my eyes, even though due to the size of the 'shooting star', it offered reasonable risk/reward for what could be a quick trade. However, the candle didn't even close a shooting star, and looked worse than the one I posted, so I wouldn't of traded it anyway. For those that did, looks like it has worked out so far, but I would be going to BE pretty quickly.

Everything you said was right, I was looking for a trade where there really wasn't one. Just throwing it out there really for some criticism.

Just one question; You said:
"Yes, but in the long term uptrend".

Over what period of time do you consider a trend in order to trade in the direction of it? Because over the period of years for EUR/AUD, the trend is up, but over the period of months, its down. I've read on some threads people saying 300 bars of data for determining the immediate or 'tradeable' trend direction? What's your view on this?

Thanks


Paul
  • #3,357
  • May 26, 2009 1:20pm May 26, 2009 1:20pm
Quoting Life of Pi_p
I haven't executed a live trade in weeks. I'm trying to find time to read the thread and absorb the info. I wish there was an audio version of the thread so that I could listen to it in my car since I've been on the road most of the time the past few weeks
OK Pi man. Find a way to do an audio version of the charts and we'll do it! Take your time (Buddy Holly 1958).
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,358
  • May 26, 2009 1:24pm May 26, 2009 1:24pm
[quote=shoestring;2757626]
Quoting rgrace
First of all congratulations on your discipline, that was and still is the hardest thing for me. We come from similar backgrounds, I am used to trading off of the 1 min

rgrace,
Thanks for your thoughtful reply. It's good to have this thread where all the posts are quality, worth reading and learning from.

Thank You Strat for my first pick! I will post some charts this evening for your critique. I am now on a mission for pick #2.
You M1 guys need to post your "before and after" photos so that we can see how you aged during your M1 days!

M5 and M15 nearly did me in so heaven knows what trying to trade M1 would have done!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,359
  • May 26, 2009 2:17pm May 26, 2009 2:17pm
I haven't been able to contribute much lately. Just thought I'd pop this AUD/USD sucker up. This is just beautiful on the daily chart how it lined up for my s/r lines and trendlines. Today we bounced exactly off my support line and the faster uptrend line (which has us in a tightening rising wedge right now). The yellow EMA is the J16 365EMA and it slices thru price right at the point where a PPZ could form.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aussie daily 526.gif Size: 37 KB
  • #3,360
  • May 26, 2009 2:23pm May 26, 2009 2:23pm
Quoting pmn100
Thanks for the critic Strat, it helps me learn what I should be cautious of. I wouldn't have taken this trade myself because as many have pointed out, there are no decent trades worth taking at the moment. I mainly wanted to dip my toe into chart analysis so I can start to pick your brains.

[font=Arial]Concerning this trade, it was always going to have minimal reward in my eyes, even though due to the size of the 'shooting star', it offered reasonable risk/reward for what could be a quick trade. However, the candle didn't...
The style we are teaching on here is conservative, safe, low risk, stress free trading on the Daily time frame and up. One of the ways to do this is to ALWAYS trade in the direction of the trend. This then begs the question "Which trend". The answer is and always will be, THE IMMEDIATE TREND. The next question MUST be "is the immediate trend in agreement with the next larger trend". We need to know this to determine whether we are trading with the trend or against the trend. A trade with the overall trend has more chance of success (profitability) than a trade against the trend and is emotion free and far less nerve wrecking!

To determine where you are in a trend you must first zoom out to get the BIG PICTURE - see attached USDJPY Daily chart. Just eyeballing this chart you can tell straightaway it is in a downtrend - yes? We can then break this down into smaller separate legs ( Major Swings) identified by the thick red and green arrows - yes?

Now, look to the left of the chart in the May 2007 to Feb 2008 period. Using the 20 as a guide as a filter, shown by the short, thick yellow lines, we can identify the smaller and shorter trend - yes?

You can keep repeating this to identify the trend by zooming in until you find the portion of the chart you are wanting to trade - yes?

Note that any trade taken in the direction of the red arrows is IN AGREEMENT with the OVERALL TREND and is "usually" longer and more profitable.

Trades in the direction of the thick green arrows (Major Swings) are COUNTER TREND (against the overall trend) but because they are "corrective" swings, will also "usually" be profitable but will be shorter.

Now note the thin green arrows marked "counter trend" in the May 2007 to Feb 2008 time period. These are counter trend trades against a "Swing". Note how each successive trade gets shorter and shorter. These are the trades which, while they look good looking back, will blow your account and your mind WHEN you don't have the experience to trade these.

So, the point I was making was ALWAYS know ALL the trends of the time frame you are trading AND know which part of the trend you are in. This allows you to determine the risk and "comfortability" in your PLAN.

For all those in the early steps on The Path of Learning, IGNORE all counter trend trades and only FOCUS on those trades which are in agreement with the overall trend.

If you think you are already smarter than you are, then consider your trend to be a huge concrete ball on a gentle slope. You can push the ball down the slope (requiring less effort, energy and attention) to gain momentum (trading with the trend) or you can push the ball UP the slope (requiring huge amounts of effort, energy and attention) (trading AGAINST the trend) and eventually running out of energy and the ball rolling back down and flattening you! (blown account!)

Trend recognition is fundamental and part of our total PASR trading method/style.

I hope this answers your question. If not, ask again.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: trend within a trend within a trend within...........gif Size: 27 KB
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
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